"Merry Christmas, Green Bay!" Love, Matt H.

I like Matt Hasselbeck. I think he's a good guy. And he is very familiar to Packer fans, both from his early days on the Green Bay roster and from his several trips back to Lambeau in a Seahawk uniform.

Lambeau has not been friendly confines for Matt. The most famous interception, of course, was the overtime pick-six in the playoffs several years ago. But he was generous with the ball again today. Really, I felt bad for the guy.

The first INT was the most significant, in my judgment. The Packer offense had done nothing in their opening drive, except show an early inability to run the ball or protect the quarterback. Then, by contrast, the Seahawks took the ball on their opening drive and moved very smartly down the field. Really, it was textbook. They ran effectively against us, and that set up the pass for them. They kept making first downs, and it looked like they were going to grab the early lead -- as well as the momentum in the cold. They faced a third-and-short, which they probably could have converted by running straight ahead. Instead, they ran a rollout passing play, which the GB defense pursued well. And then came the inexplicable pass. That put momentum back on Green Bay's side, and we never gave it back.

The rest of the game was a thing of beauty. I liked Brandon Jackson's breakout performance -- one more thing for future opponents to think about. I liked our kick coverage not giving back momentum after a Packer score. I liked the aggressive, ball-hawking defense. I liked Rodgers' unemotional efficiency. I liked going for it on 4th-and-goal at the 1 (even though a penalty cost us the TD). I like Jermichael Finley -- what a weapon. I liked the early insertion of Matt Flynn. I liked the rewarding final score for the faithful, frozen sellout crowd at Lambeau. And I liked that Mason Crosby didn't screw up any kicks.

And, a thousand miles to the east, I liked the Panthers' remarkable performance in the Meadowlands. More on that next time.

Week Sixteen -- A Look Ahead

Week 16 begins on Christmas night -- an awful thing to do, it seems to me, to NFL players and their families. The Chargers are in Tennessee to take on the surging Titans. If Tennessee manages to start the season at 0-6 and still make the playoffs, it may be more remarkable than the Colts going 16-0. In any case, they have to win this game against a very tough, very hot AFC foe to stay in the hunt.

The AFC is such a jumbled scene right now -- not nearly so straightforward as the NFC picture -- and so all sorts of games are important in that Conference this weekend... Texans at Dolphins, Broncos at Eagles (which, of course, is also important to the NFC picture), Jets at Colts, and Ravens at Steelers.

The latter game is one of most highly anticipated, not only because of the playoff quality, but also because of the bad blood between these two teams. It should be a bruising physical battle. What's the word commentators like to use so much? "Chippy"? Expect to see a lot of "chippy" behavior on the field in Pittsburgh.

The Jets-Colts contest also has its drama. It's must-win for the Jets, while it is completely inconsequential for the Colts... except for the perfect record that is at stake!

The Raiders' trip to Cleveland doesn't matter for the AFC playoff picture, but both teams have shown signs of late-season improvement. The Browns will be looking for their third consecutive win, and one has to think that Mangini is coaching for his job with Mike Holmgren looking over his shoulder as the incoming President.

Meanwhile, on the NFC side of the ledger...

The situation, as we have detailed elsewhere, comes down to the Eagles, Cowboys, Giants, and Packers competing for three available playoff spaces: the NFC East title and two wild card spots.

Generally speaking, the Packers are in good shape, though they haven't clinched yet. We're targeting the Cowboys and Giants as our primary competition. The Panthers have the capacity to go into New York and upset the Giants, but I'm not betting on it. I think there's a stronger chance that the Redskins might upset the Cowboys in Washington -- though they'll have to play considerably better than they did against the Giants last week. They have the potential for a shut-down defense, and Dallas may have lost some focus after their surprising upset of the Saints in New Orleans. It's the Sunday Night game, which I believe is the best televised football product in the league these days. I look forward to watching it and rooting for Washington.

We could also welcome an Eagles loss. I don't think the Broncos will manage to beat them in Philly, but Denver badly needs the game. The Broncos are the opposite story from the Titans -- they started 6-0, but run the risk now of missing the playoffs altogether.

The Monday Night game is also an interesting one for us -- an NFC North grudge-match between the Bears and Vikings. Minnesota needs to regain its equilibrium, while everyone in Chicago -- from the front office on down -- is playing for his job. The forecast for Chicago on Monday Night sports temps in the low 20s. Not terrible weather, but a very different environment from the climate-controlled Metrodome. And Packer fans know well that Favre's cold-weather performance declined toward the end of his Green Bay tenure. The Vikings need to be playing their best ball now -- not in September and October.

Finally, the Seahawks are coming back to Lambeau. It's an easy game to look past, for every indicator says we should win this one. Still, they'll have 11 professional athletes on the field at any given moment, too, so we mustn't count this W before it is hatched.

Bottom line... I expect the Packers to win, but I also expect all three of our chief NFC opponents to win, forcing the issue to Week 17.

Lost Weekend

Fortunately the Packers went into Week 15 in pretty good shape, otherwise the weekend would have been disastrous for us.

We are basically in a four-teams-for-two-spaces wild card race with the NFC East. The Eagles (10-4), the Cowboys (9-5), and the Giants (8-6) are all competing with each other for their Division title and with us (9-5) for the two NFC wild card slots. Unhappily, all three of those teams won this weekend, while Green Bay lost. Ugh.

The Eagles beat the visiting 49ers. That didn't surprise me. The Giants absolutely manhandled the Redskins in Washington, which did surprise me. And the Cowboys upset the previously undefeated Saints in New Orleans, which shocked me.

Happily, Green Bay still controls its own destiny. If we beat the Seahawks at home and the Cardinals on the road, we'll be in, no matter what anyone else does. Also happily, we own tie-breakers against the Cowboys and Eagles, should we end in a tie with either of them. The Giants, however, are the team we need to fear, for they have some tie-breaking edge over us.

Obviously the most simple formula for us to follow is to root against all three of these teams. And since both a Division title and the two wild card berths are available, only one of the four vying teams will get left out. So we're still in good shape.

I think it's safe to assume that we'll beat Seattle this Sunday in Green Bay. The next week in Arizona, however, is not such a sure thing. Here, then, is our nightmare scenario:

Green Bay beats Seattle but loses to Arizona and ends at 10-6.

The Cowboys beat the Redskins on the road and the Eagles at home, ending at 11-5.

The Eagles beat the visiting Broncos but lose in Dallas, ending at 11-5.

The Giants beat the hapless Redskins in New York and then beat the nothing-to-play-for Vikings in Minnesota, ending at 10-6.

That particular concoction would leave the Packers at home when the playoffs start. That's the scenario we're aiming to avoid -- first, by winning both our games; and, second, by cheering for each of those three NFC East teams to lose this weekend.

The Rest of the Story

Well, we covered "the good" of Sunday's game against Pittsburgh. Now it's time to identify "the bad and the ugly."

I was able to generate a list of ten good things. With a little effort I probably could have expanded it to 12 or 14. The list of bad things will not be so long, but it will be deeper -- and therefore more serious.

So, what was wrong with Sunday's game against the Steelers?

1) Defense. The game was painful from, literally, Pittsburgh's first offensive play to its last. They scored a touchdown on their first play, and they scored one on their last. They were both pass plays. And that fact captures the most alarming element of Sunday's loss. Pittsburgh put up over 500 passing yards against our vaunted defense -- and that without much threat of a running game! They torched us with big-play passes -- like the first touchdown, plus a number of long-yardage conversions. And they picked us apart with short passes, too. In this regard, I think they ignored the tapes of our last 5 wins and studied the earlier film from the teams that had beaten us early in the season, where we noted this weakness before: namely, that you can get 7-15 yards at will against Green Bay by throwing against our linebackers in coverage. Now, not everyone boasts the kind of tight end that Pittsburgh does, but still it is a very troubling weakness.

2) Defense again. Two different times in the 4th quarter, the offense handed the defense the lead. All they had to do was get a couple of stops. These guys came in with the #2 ranked defense in the NFL -- which is not a shabby statistic going into Week 15 of a season. But Pittsburgh moved the ball on them all day, and I saw no evidence of effective halftime adjustments. In the end, they had a team with 86 yards and 2 minutes to go. It wasn't a field goal game -- it was a touchdown. And yet they couldn't seal the deal. Very troubling.

3) Mason Crosby. It's hard not to say that he cost us this game since we lost by 1 point but he left 3 points on the field when he missed that 34-yard attempt in the first half. It's the fourth straight game that he has missed a field goal -- and it's not like these have not been 48- and 52-yard attempts. The guy is unreliable, and something needs to change.

4) Dropped passes. Pittsburgh got all the momentum early on -- forcing us to play catch-up -- largely because we kept going three-and-out in the first half of the game. And our failure to move the ball and make first downs was due, in large measure, to our receivers dropping the ball. This is not the first game where this has been a problem. And if they had done their job (catching the ball is, after all, what they are paid a very great deal of money to do), then we would have been playing from strength rather than weakness from the start.

5) The running game. I get the feeling that "establish the run" appears on Mike McCarthy's list of New Year's resolutions right after "lose weight." He keeps meaning to do it, but it seldom really gets done. I think he just has too great a craving for the passing game, and so Rodgers and the offensive line are put back on their heels from the start. To open with 6 straight passes against the Steelers' defense was especially foolish, since they are notorious for their blitz packages. Even though they didn't register a sack, they abused Rodgers during those first series. We needed to get them back on their heels by establishing the run from the start. And, later in the game, we could have helped our defense a bit by eating up more clock with an effective running game. We scored too quickly in the 4th quarter, leaving the Steelers with too much time in the end.

I'm Glad I'm Not...

I'm still feeling pretty bitter about the Packers' heart-breaking loss in Pittsburgh. That would have been such a beautiful win -- such a good achievement to come back in the 4th quarter on the road against a good team. Alas.

In any case, one of the therapeutic habits I've developed in my years of football fandom is to follow a disappointing loss by making a list of the fans that I'm glad I'm not. In other words, while it is a little painful to be a Packer fan today, I'm still glad that I'm not a fan of several other teams, instead...

I'm glad I'm not a Saints fan. I know that they've still got plenty to be happy and excited about, but you've got to know that their mouths were watering over the prospect of 16-0. To lose at home against the struggling Cowboys really hurts -- very disappointing. (Also disappointing for us as Packer fans!)

I'm glad I'm not a Vikings fan. They went into the game knowing that they could make up ground on the Saints, who stumbled on Saturday night. Instead, they couldn't close the deal on an out-of-contention Panther team, which only managed 6 points through 3 quarters. And, on top of it all, now they've got a QB-coach controversy to deal with all week.

I'm glad I'm not a Jets fan. They really needed a win on Sunday. The difference between 8-6 and 7-7 in the AFC just now is huge. They were at home, and they had the lead on the Falcons all game long. But they gave it up in the end, and now they're just crossing their fingers about the playoffs, with games against the Colts and Bengals still to play!

I'm glad I'm not a Broncos fan. Remember when they were 6-0 and the talk of the league? Now they languish at 8-6, barely clinging to a wild card berth, with a whole herd of 7-7 teams nipping at their heels. They could have distanced themselves from the pack with a simple win at home against the dysfunctional Raiders with their quarterback carousel, but they lost. And now they have to go to Philly to play the Eagles!

I'm glad I'm not a 49ers fan. San Francisco jumped out to such a promising start this year under relatively new head coach Mike Singletary. They took early control of their Division, and they looked like world-beaters. Then things began to crumble, and yesterday they were officially knocked out of playoff contention.

I'm glad I'm not a Bears fan. No need for elaboration -- they're just a disaster.

Not All Bad

Well, let's start by looking at the bright side, shall we...?

(1) If you had said at the beginning of the season that we would go into Pittsburgh and lose to the defending champion Steelers by one point on a last-second touchdown pass, I think I would have been pleased and impressed.

(2) They were coming off 10-day rest, they were playing at home, and they needed the game more than we did. Much more.

(3) It was not a Conference loss for us, so it should not cost us in tie-breakers.

(4) We only gave up 1 sack.

(5) We committed fewer penalties (7) than our opponent (10).

(6) We committed no turnovers.

(7) Our special teams didn't allow one of their characteristic back-breaking big runbacks.

(8) Rogers showed the ability to get it done in a tough spot -- in the 4th quarter, on the road, playing from behind. He led the Packers to 22 4th-quarter points. This loss cannot be hung on our offense.

(9) We're not Bronco fans.

(10) We still control our own playoff destiny. If we win both remaining games, we're in. And, probably, just one more win will do the job.

So, that's the good.

We'll cover the bad and the ugly next time!

Three Things I Wonder

Number 1:
I wonder whether we should root for the Bears to win out? If they continue to fall apart, I suspect that there will be some house-cleaning. And as a Packer fan, I'm not sure I want to see Chicago clean house. I like them just the way they are -- and I think the current administration is more likely to hold their jobs for another year if they end hot and finish with a respectable record.

Number 2:
I wonder how the Patriots feel about the Colts and Saints. They famously accomplished a 16-0 regular season record two years ago, but then infamously lost their quest for wire-to-wire perfection in the Super Bowl against the Giants (one of the best Super Bowls I've ever seen). So are they protective of their regular season achievement, eager to see the Colts and Saints falter before getting to 16-0? Or do they cherish the prospect of some other team matching their misery -- i.e., a perfect regular season ruined by a loss in the playoffs?

Number 3:
I wonder if we would fare better against the Vikings in the playoffs. They beat us rather handily in our two regular season meetings, and as things are unfolding right now we stand a fair chance of playing them a third time -- a postseason date in the Metrodome. To have Favre knock the Packers out of the playoffs would almost be as big a story as the first two meetings this year. Conversely, for the Packers to win the playoff match-up would effectively erase all the pain and frustration of the two regular season defeats.

Week Fifteen -- A Look Ahead

Amazingly, the NFL heads into Week 15 with two teams still undefeated -- one AFC and one NFC -- and they both play early.

Once again, the NFL starts its weekend on Thursday night, and this week's match-up is a good one. The Indianapolis Colts take their undefeated record into Jacksonville to play the Jaguars. The Colts have nothing left to play for as they have clinched the top seed in the AFC. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have everything to play for as they cling to the final Wild Card spot in the AFC with three other 7-6 teams right on their heels waiting for them to stumble. It should be a fascinating game. 'Wish I could see it!

Meanwhile, when the Packers kick off on Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh, they'll already have some sense of their playoff position, for the Dallas Cowboys play on Saturday night. And they'll be facing the undefeated Saints in New Orleans. It's another NFL Network game, so I'll be left out in the cold again, but it remains an interesting and important game.

It's an interesting game because the Saints clearly have 16-0 on their minds. Plus, it's a home game for them, so it should be a jazzed crowd and an electric environment. It will be a tough setting and a tough opponent for the Cowboys, who come in as a Wild Card team, but in the midst of their annual December slide. The Saints want the win; the Cowboys need the win.

The game is an important one from our perspective, of course, because Dallas is one of the teams we whom we are competing for playoff position. If the Cowboys lose on Saturday and we win on Sunday, that's it -- we're in the playoffs! There's still an open question about seeding, but a Dallas loss and Green Bay win clinches a spot for us in the postseason (something hard to imagine when we were 4-4 and coming off that terrible loss to Tampa Bay).

With our fifth consecutive victory and our 9-5 records, we don't need to sweat the Falcons or 49ers any more. In fact, we'd like to see the 49ers upset the Eagles in Philly on Sunday afternoon.

Of some surprising interest to us this week is the Sunday Night contest between the Vikings and Panthers. I do not root for Minnesota easily, but they'll be my team on Sunday Night. My interest is in locking the Arizona Cardinals into their playoff spot so that they have nothing left to play for in Week 17 against Green Bay. Accordingly, I don't want them to be eligible for the NFC second seed and a first-round bye.

Meanwhile, to complete the sweep of primetime games this weekend, it turns out that the Monday Nighter is also worth our watching. The Giants travel to Washington in a Divisional grudge match. The Giants are currently on the outside looking in on the NFC playoff scene, while the Redskins have nothing to play for but pride and jobs. Their defense is great, they're playing at home, and anything can happen in the Division. We'll be pulling for the Redskins as the Giants are part of our Wild Card competition. In fact, a Green Bay win would combine with a New York loss or tie to clinch a wild card spot for us (Cowboys notwithstanding). Alternatively, a Green Bay tie would combine with a New York loss to clinch a spot for us, as well. Go Redskins!

The Browns play at Kansas City in this week's version of the Pathetic Bowl (though Cardinals at Lions is stiff competition). Cleveland is riding high after upsetting the Steelers, and Mangini is clinging to his job. Also, this week's Cleveland headlines have been dominated by Mike Holmgren's extended visit with the Browns. Perhaps there's a bit of a revival about to happen there.

Of no particular interest to us -- except as generic football fans -- is the great AFC match-up between the Bengals and the Chargers. Cincy was dealt a tragic blow this week with the sudden death of their young, troubled wide receiver. It's the second death this season within the Bengal family. 'Hard to imagine how they'll cope. In any case, it's a game between two AFC powerhouses with significant playoff implications.

Also in the AFC is the Patriots' trip to Buffalo. One would think that New England would win this game easily, but as someone has observed, they have only managed to win games played in England or New England this season.

Finally, the Packers go to Pittsburgh. When I looked at this game on the schedule at the beginning of the year, I counted it as a loss. When I reviewed our remaining schedule halfway through the season, I still figured it would be a loss. Now I don't know what to think.

With a five-game win streak, the Packers are regarded as one of the hot teams in the league. The Steelers, meanwhile, sport a five-game losing streak, including unthinkable losses to the Raiders and Browns. On paper, the trend lines all point toward a Packer victory.

Still, I am uneasy. I think they're a very proud team. I also think they'll be highly motivated playing at home, even though their playoff chances are slim to none. I'm mor afraid of them than I was of the Bears, and perhaps even the Ravens.

If we protect Rogers -- as we have been more recently -- I think we'll be able to both run and throw on their defense. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, the Pittsburgh running game has been inconsistent at best this year, and Big Ben has been sacked a ton. If I were going to make a completely unemotional evaluation, therefore, I would say that Green Bay wins this one.

Still, I'm afraid.

Bottom line? Saints stay perfect, Cowboys lose, Green Bay wins, and Packers are in!

Monday Night Questions

As the clock winds down on a remarkable Monday Night Football contest between the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers, two big questions emerge:

1) How did these Cardinals beat the Vikings?

2) How did the Packers beat these 49ers?

Tonight's completely unforeseen result serves to make the current acheivement of the Saints and Colts that much more admirable. After all, the way that the Cardinals dominated Minnesota just last week made you think they could beat anyone in the NFL. Meanwhile, the way that the 49ers lost to the Seahawks (who were just plastered by Houston, 34-7) last week made you think that anyone in the NFL could beat them. But tonight it was the 49ers overwhelming the Cardinals, forcing an embarrassing 7 turnovers from last year's NFC Champs.

The Jekyll-and-Hyde behavior of these two NFC West teams offers some perspective on the undefeated seasons being put together by Indy and New Orleans. How hard is it to play well every single week? How hard is it to do what it takes to win in the NFL for thirteen consecutive games?

While I was loosely pulling for the Cardinals tonight, their loss will also serve our purposes. After all, our primary goal is for them to thrive but merely for them to be locked into a playoff spot -- probably either the third or fourth seed now -- with no room for promotion or demotion when Week 17 dawns and the Packers come to town.

Reflections on a Strange Win

This afternoon's defeat of the Bears was such an emotionally confusing game for me that I don't have a coherent stream of thought about it yet. Accordingly, let me share some random observations, instead:

1) First, the emotional confusion. We started so strong -- on both offense and defense -- that it was an exhilirating game at first. The team gradually let the air out of my balloon, however, when they seemed to let up in their intensity. The defense became vanilla. The offense lacked rhythm. Rodgers was missing open men. Next thing I knew, the Bears had the lead and the momentum, and I feared another embarrassing road loss, a la Tampa Bay. Then the interception and ensuing touchdown restored my hope. But then Mason Crosby robbed me of my enthusiasm, replacing it with worry, when he missed the chance to make it a two possession game. Then came Lovie Smith's boneheaded timeout/challenge combination, followed by a reawakened Packer defense. Finally, a couple of kneeldowns by Rodgers completed the victory, but I found myself feeling more relieved than thrilled.

2) Was it the church lady on Saturday Night Live that used to say, "Isn't that special?" That's the tone of voice in which I hear the word "special" when reference is made to our "special teams." This week, at least, we managed not to give up a big momentum-changing kick return. But another missed field goal by Mason Crosby makes me wonder if he's going to cost us a game when we get to the playoffs. It seems that anything over 35 yards for this guy is a crapshoot.

3) I don't think that Rodgers played especially well today. It's nice to know that we can win even when he isn't throwing TDs.

4) I continue to be proud of and impressed by our defense. We held the Bears to just two touchdowns, and the one came after a turnover (Was it a fumble? Was it an interception?) and a short field for Chicago. And the defense continues to be effective sans Aaron Kampman and Al Harris, plus Ryan Pickett was also missing today. That's a sign of a good scheme.

5) I like the mental toughness I saw. On the road, overcoming negative momentum, in spite of a lackluster offensive performance -- that's a good win.

6) In addition to raising our Win-Loss record, this win was also important as it raised our in-Conference record to 7-3. That may be important for us as a tie-breaker in the Wild Card race.

7) Finally, now that we've won this game, I'm more inclined to cheer for the Giants tonight against the Eagles.

Playoff Possibilities

We're entering the 4th quarter of the 2009 NFL season. It's gone by too quickly! And with just 4 games left to go, the Packers are alive-and-well in the playoff chase.

Here is a link to SI's latest breakdown of the NFC and AFC races:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/dom_bonvissuto/12/09/week.14/index.html

Meanwhile, a little statistical data about our own particular situation.

Let us assume that 3 of the 4 NFC Divisions are settled matters. The Vikings will win the North, the Saints will win the South, and the Cardinals will win the West. (In the case of the latter two, not only do they enjoy substantial leads, but their remaining opponents also have a sub-.500 cumulative winning percentage.)

So we'll say that 3 of the 6 NFC playoff spots are taken. The Packers, then, are vying for the remaining 3 spots, and our chief competition comes from the Cowboys (8-4), Eagles (8-4), Giants (7-5), and Falcons (6-6). (It's still plausible that some 5-7 team will make a run and get in, but we won't worry about those guys unless the Packers lose this Sunday.)

The Falcons, who are already two games behind us, face an enormous obstacle this week as they host the 12-0 Saints. Plus, they're hobbled. If they can manage to get the upset win this week, however, then they're suddenly in very good shape, for their remaining opponents (Jets, Bills, and Bucs) have a combined winning percentage of .306!

Of the four other teams in the heat of battle, the Packers have the next easiest remaining schedule with opponents sporting an even .500 winning percentage.

The Giants -- currently one game behind us -- come in next with opponents' winning percentage at .542.

Next come the Eagles -- with whom we are tied, except that they own the tie-breaker -- whose opponents tally a .583 winning percentage.

And then we come to the Cowboys. If the season ended today, they would win the NFC East. On the other hand, if they were competing for the Wild Card rather than the Division, we would edge them out by virtue of the head-t0-head win. Meanwhile, Dallas has been notorious for its poor December performances (they haven't had a winning record in December since 1996!). And they have by far the most difficult remaining schedule of the NFC teams currently in the hunt -- Chargers (9-3), Saints (12-0), Redskins (3-9), and Eagles (8-4) for a .666 winning percentage.

And so the team that entered December at the top of the NFC East is widely expected to miss the playoffs when January rolls around. Remarkable.

And speaking of expectations... I came across a fascinating analysis of why Packer fans have reason for great expectations as we enter the 4th quarter of the season. Enjoy:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/kerry_byrne/12/10/packers/index.html?eref=sihp

Miracle in the Dawg Pound

I don't know who the announcer was for the NFL Network, but he had a great line as the Browns upset the Pittsburgh Steelers: "Never underestimate the power of a rival." How true.

College football fans will recognize the Thursday Night curse. How many superior teams have lost on the road on Thursday night? It's where favorites go to die.

Still, this one is an absolute shocker. Consider:

• The Browns hadn't beaten the Steelers since 2003
• The 2009 Browns have only won 1 game, and that was a 6-3 ugly-fest against the almost equally pathetic Buffalo Bills.
• The Browns' offense was anemic, struggling to put up 13 points at home.
• The Browns have been completely dysfunctional this year, including a "top secret" QB competition, only to have the starter shortly replaced by the back-up. The GM was let go mid-season. And the new coach is widely expected to be let go at the end of his first year.
• The Browns had nothing to play for but draft picks.
• The Steelers are the defending World Champions.
• The Steelers are proud and talented.
• The Steelers HAD to win this game.

It doesn't matter what else happens in the other 15 games this weekend: this game will still stand out as the most surprising game of Week 14.

And, for us as Packer fans, it's a very happy surprise, for now the Steelers are toast. They've lost 5 straight games -- including games against the Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns! The wheels are completely coming off, and it's hard to imagine what the mood is going to be when they return to Heinz Field a week from Sunday. Suffice it to say, though, that the Packers will have a lot to play for, while the Steelers... not so much.

Week Fourteen -- A Look Ahead

Week 14 begins on Thursday Night. We'll start there, and work our way through games of generic interest to NFL fans, followed by some consideration of the games that are of particular significance to us as Packer fans.

First, we observe that the wheels have been coming off in Pittsburgh, as the defending champions have now lost 4 in a row. The latest loss may be the most devastating, for you would surely expect the Steelers to beat the dysfunctional Raiders in Pittsburgh. You have to win your home games. And you have to beat the teams you're supposed to beat. Instead, the Steelers are wallowing at 6-6, and notching another Conference loss didn't help.

But, they get to play the Browns this Thursday Night, which has been good news this season for everyone but the Buffalo Bills.

I wonder what the Vegas odds are on a Cleveland win tonight...? Whatever they are, I'll be pulling for the Browns. I'd like the Steelers to be effectively out of the playoff race when we head to Pittsburgh next week.

Meanwhile, the NFL's two unbeaten teams both face interesting challenges as they seek 13-0.

The Saints travel to Atlanta to face the Falcons. Atlanta really needs this game; it's a must-win situation for them. And, if it weren't for their several key injuries, I would think they could pull it off. As it is, though, I expect New Orleans to keep getting the job done. (And, truthfully, from our perspective as Packer fans, another Falcon loss serves our purposes very well.)

Meanwhile, the undefeated Colts host the Denver Broncos. Many commentators -- including none other than Tony Dungy -- have made a great point of the fact that the Broncos are the team the Colts most dread. In terms of recent history, Denver has been Indy's nemesis. I hadn't realized that myself, for I have been more conscious of the Colts' Conference rivalry with the Patriots. The game is much more important to Denver than it is to Indy. On the other hand, the Colts are playing at home. Personally, I give the nod to Manning & Co.

Also of some interest is the Panthers trip to New England. The match-up itself is not particularly compelling, but it is fascinating to observe what may be happening to the Patriots. There was the amazing loss in Indy. Then the drubbing at the hands of the Saints. And now a failure to close out Miami in the 4th quarter. The Patriots have lost significant 4th-quarter leads in three games this season, they haven't won a game in an opponent's stadium yet in 2009, they have now lost consecutive games for the first time since the middle of the 2006 season, and Brady had consecutive games with multiple interceptions for the first time since 2003!

Frankly, I do expect New England to win their game this week, but still I wonder if we may be watching the last days of Rome.

Finally, the Bengals' trip to Minnesota should be a fascinating match-up. Don Banks (SI.com) took the opportunity of last weekend's loss in Arizona to recall some pretty damning statistics about Favre's late-season swoons. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/don_banks/12/08/patriots/index.html

Personally, I don't think that was the primary issue. I just think the Vikings are not the elite team that all the hype and their inflated record suggest. Accordingly, I think the contest with the Bengals should be very interesting to watch. If Cincy pulls it off, then suddenly instead of vying with the Saints for the best record in the NFC, the Vikings would find themselves in a race with the Cardinals for the other first-round bye.

Well, that covers the waterfront on games of general interest. Now we turn our attention to the games that mean the most to the Packers...

The Eagles and Giants play this weekend, which is a game of mammoth importance for both of them, and also has great significance for us. The problem is: for whom shall we cheer?

Currently, the Eagles are just ahead of us in the wild card race, and so a New York win sets us up the climb in the seedings a bit. On the other hand, the Giants are the team right on our heels and mostly likely to knock us out of our current sixth-and-final spot if we should lose. And so a Philly win would give us more security. Hmmm, what to do?

Elsewhere, while we may be somewhat conflicted when the Eagles face the Giants, there will be no such ambivalence when the Chargers come to Dallas. The Cowboys have become notorious for December collapses, and they were right on schedule last Sunday with their loss to the flailing Giants. Now they face no easy task with the AFC West leading Chargers, and we'll be San Diego fans for sure on Sunday afternoon.

Dallas has the toughest schedule of the 3 NFC East teams competing for the postseason berths, and it's easy to envision them sliding right out of their Division-leader perch into a spot in front of the TV come January.

The Monday Night game in San Francisco is also of some interest to us. A Cardinal win against the 49ers would lock up the Division for them, which speeds them toward my personal goal for them: namely, that they have nothing to play for when we arrive in Arizona on Week 17. (Unless of course they are playing for the second seed in the NFC -- see above.)

Finally, speaking of teams that have nothing to play for, enter the Bears. They started their season with a terrible performance in Lambeau, and as 2009 has unfolded, it turns out that what happened that Sunday Night was no fluke. The Cutler experiment has been a tremendous disappointment. Matt Forte has been a disappointment. The Bears defense has been a disappointment. And so all signs point to a Green Bay victory on Sunday afternoon.

Except for this... Lovie Smith has, from the beginning of his tenure in Chicago, made it his personal mission to beat the Packers. And he's been pretty effective at it. And so, even though the Bears have nothing to play for on paper, they've got something to play for if they have any sense of pride, any appetite for revenge, any intra-Division animus, and any desire to keep Smith as the head coach for 2010.

That said, the Packers are the better team, they're on a roll, and I expect them to get the job done this week, as well.

Ugly Baby

Do you recall that Seinfeld episode in which some annoying friends of the gang insist that they all come over to "see the baby"? And while the TV audience never actually gets to see the baby, it's clear from the reactions of Jerry, Elaine, and Kramer that it's a pretty ugly infant. The parents, of course, don't realize it. To the parents, the baby is always beautiful.

Likewise, Monday Night's game was a beautiful thing to Packers fans. To the rest of the football world, however, it was a notoriously ugly game.

As the commentators repeatedly observed, the Ravens and Packers combined for the second-most penalty yardage in a single game in NFL history. Furthermore, the 2009 Packers are only the second team in NFL history to commit 3 turnovers and accumulate so many penalty yards and yet still win the game. Remarkable.

The Ravens looked like one of the better teams in the NFL back in September, and they looked pretty tough to me when I saw them beat the Steelers last week, as well. Furthermore, they needed Monday's game more than we did. I was very apprehensive, therefore, about the prospect of them coming into Lambeau and beating us on national TV. Instead, however, we dominated them throughout the first half, and we managed to pull away again after letting them get inexcusably close in the second half.

Of course, we come away with much to correct, in spite of the win. The interceptions are an embarassment, and the number of flags on our defensive backfield made me think that Ahmad Carroll was back on the team. Worse still, I believe that our special teams are being coached by Madeline Albright. (She was the Secretary of State, you recall, who declared that it was unfair for the United States to be the only superpower in the world.) Likewise, when the Packers get too far ahead, our special teams seem determined to get the opponent back in the game. Another missed field goal by Mason Crosby and another huge kickoff return following a Green Bay touchdown: those are unsettling patterns as we look toward the postseason.

Still, for all that was ugly about the game on Monday Night, I'll take an ugly "W" over a pretty "L" every time.

What Do We Know Now?

All the games but ours are in the books for Week 13 in the NFL. And what do we know as we prepare for the Packers' kickoff?

We know that the Patriots are not the team they used to be. Losing to Indy on the road in a game that they had dominated largely because of a coaching decision made for interesting talk radio, but it wasn't a red flag. Getting pummeled by the undefeated Saints on the road wasn't necessarily a reason to sound the alarms, either. But now, to lose in such a 4th-quarter-collapse fashion against the Dolphins...?! The evidence is beginning to mount that the Patriots are no longer the cream of the NFL crop.

We know that the Steelers are not the team they were last year. Pittsburgh has now lost four consecutive games. They can point to injuries to key players on offense and defense, which is fine. Still, to give up 21 4th-quarter points at home to the Raiders is a public embarrassment. Pittsburgh is now 3 games behind the Bengals in the AFC North, and they were swept by Cincy, making it effectively a 4-game differential with just 4 games to play! Plus, they're presently the tenth seed in the AFC, which is quite a distance from the 6-team cutoff for a postseason berth.

We know that the Saints are amazing. These guys can do it all. They can dominate a game wire-to-wire, or they can sit out the first half of a game and then come storming back to win in the end. They're ranked 1st in points per game, 1st in yards per game, they have outscored their opponents by a total of 189 points (the next closest team is the Colts at 130 points), and they have playmakers on defense, too. Only the Falcons, Cowboys, Bucs, and Panthers stand now between the former Ain'ts and a perfect regular season.

We know that the Vikings are not as good as their record (or their hype). Minnesota has played a notoriously soft schedule in 2009. (Note that the one team that had beaten them coming into Week 13 is now 6-6.) All the tiresome talk has been about the unbeatable combination they have put together with and for Brett Favre, but the fact is that they won their Division and went to the playoffs last year without Brett Favre. So until they go further than one playoff game, they can't really claim to be vastly improved over 2008. And their performance against good competition on Sunday Night makes one wonder how far into the playofffs these guys actually will go. People were talking about Saints/Vikings as the dream NFC Championship game. Personally, I don't think Minnesota will make it all the way to New Orleans.

We know that the Packers are in decent shape heading into their Week 13 game against the Ravens. I'm still not confident that we'll beat Baltimore tonight, but we still enjoy a happy perch within the Conference. Losses on Sunday by the Falcons and 49ers have aided our position. Plus, the Cowboys, Eagles, and Giants all arguably have tougher remaining schedules than we do.

Week Thirteen -- A Look Ahead

This NFL Week begins again on Thursday Night. The Jets play the Bills, which is of no interest to us as Packer fans, and is barely of interest to us as football fans. The NFL Network did not draw a winner here.

The more important action comes on Sunday, with the most important game (for us, that is) scheduled for Monday Night.

Of modest interest will be the Rams' visit to Chicago. The Bears have become a true disaster, and if they can't defeat the hapless Rams at home, you've got to know that heads are gonna roll. In the end, the Bears will probably win -- but it won't change the fact that they're a disaster, and their fans know it.

Also of league-wide interest is the fate of these two undefeated teams going into December. I heard that the NFL has never had two 11-0 teams in a single season before. Fascinating.

On paper, one would expect the Saints to move rather easily to 12-0, for they face the 3-8 Redskins on Sunday. On the other hand, it's a road game, it follows a huge, emotional victory, and it's against an easily overlooked opponent. This has "trap game" written all over it.

Elsewhere, the undefeated Colts host the resurgent Titans. Tennessee has been an unbelievable story all season long -- first for how unexpectedly bad they were, and now for how a QB changed has turned them completely around and put them on the fringe of the playoff race! They need this game more than Indy does, and the Colts have been winning ugly... no, surviving ugly.

Meanwhile, the teams of greatest interest to Green Bay in the NFC wild card hunt are all playing one another: the Eagles face the Falcons and the Cowboys visit the Giants.

If I felt confident that the Packers were going to win on Monday Night, then I would cheer for the two lower-rung teams, which also happen to be the home teams (Atlanta and New York). Since I expect that Baltimore is going to beat us, however, then I am more willing to cede the upper slots to Philly and Dallas, while feeling eager to keep those that are behind us still behind us.

No matter how you slice it, two of these four teams are going to lose, and that's good news for us. As I watch, though, I will be pulling for the visiting teams to prevail.

Meanwhile, on Sunday Night, I'll be cheering for the Cardinals as they host the 10-1 Minnesota Vikings. This is not mere anti-Viking sentiment on my part: this is self-interest. I want Arizona to wrap up their Division and have little reason for showing up in Week 17 when the Packers come to town.

Even apart from that self-interest, it will be a fascinating game, for it may represent Minnesota's best test to-date. Understand that of all the teams that the Vikings have played thus far, the opponent with the best W-L record is -- wait for it -- the Green Bay Packers! Other than the Packers, the best record of the victories the Vikings have notched belongs to the 6-5 Ravens, and their one loss came to the 6-5 Steelers.

I submit that the Vikings' 10-1 record is not as close to the Saints' 11-0 record as it appears on paper. These next two weeks -- at Arizona and home against the Bengals -- will be very revealing about just how good the 10-1 Vikings really are.

In any case, I'm rooting for the Cardinals.

Finally, Monday Night Football comes to Lambeau. And so do the Baltimore Ravens. They have the 4th ranked defense in the NFL. Their record is only one game poorer than ours, but they come out of a much tougher Division. Under their "Win" column they have victories over the Chargers, Broncos, and Steelers. Whom have we beaten? I'm afraid that the Ravens are the better team, and I'm afraid they're going to show it on Monday Night. My only reasons for hope are these: (1) We're coming off the long break, while they're coming off a big emotional win against a Division foe. (2) We're playing at home.

Bottom line? Packers lose, Eagles win, Giants win, Vikings get exposed, and one of the two undefeated teams finally falls.

More Playoff Projections

Dom Bonvissuto (SI.com) has done a game-by-game, team-by-team analysis of the playoff races in the AFC and NFC. Interesting stuff. Here is the link to his page of NFC projections:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/dom_bonvissuto/12/02/week.13/1.html

Contrary to my own estimates, he figures that we will beat the Ravens and the Steelers. That seems optimistic to me. Meanwhile, he anticipates losses to the Bears and Cardinals. And, of course, he picks Green Bay to beat the Seahawks in Lambeau. In the end, he figures that the Packers will finish 10-6 and grab the fifth seed in the NFC playoffs.

If the regular season ended today, we'd have the sixth seed.

My primary goal, of course, is simply to make the cut, at all. Then, to whatever extent beggars can be choosers, I would like (obviously) to win our first-round playoff game, and to be seeded in such a way as to face the Vikings in the second round.

Why am I eager for the Metrodome? Well, first, because the alternative is playing the Saints in the second round. And, second, because I would love to be the team that knocks the cocky Vikings out of the playoffs. And while I think we would lose to this Minnesota team 5 out of 6 times we played them, perhaps the playoff match-up might be that one exception game.

But that's all quite a way down the road. For now, SI is calling for us to beat the visiting Ravens.

Changing of the Guard

As the college football season nears its final week before the bowls begin, we observe a surprising preponderance of undefeated teams. That number will be reduced by at least one when Florida and Alabama face off this week, and it may be that someone else (e.g., Cincy?) may fall. But, still, we will go into the bowl-selection process with a superabundance of undefeated teams.

The intriguing detail is that it's not the USC, Ohio State, Oklahoma types that are cluttering up the top of the polls. Instead, you've got teams like Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State. And the natural question becomes: Just how good are those teams, really?

It's all very nice that they have managed to play their particular schedules without losing. But what would happen if they had to play a team like Florida? Could they keep up with Texas? Would they be run off the field by USC?

The NFL doesn't have quite the same "major conference, small conference" dynamics, of course, but there are still questions that surround some teams -- teams that amass great records, yet still haven't proven themselves.

That changed for one team last night.

The New Orleans Saints looked so good on paper. They were racking up gaudy stats on offense, and they had compiled a great undefeated record. But did we take them seriously? Just because they had the best record in the league, did we really believe that they were the best team in the league?

How many times did the commentators say last night that the New England Patriots were the gold standard? So last night's game was the true test: now we would find out if the Saints were for real.

Oh my!

What a complete performance -- and total dismantling -- last night's game was. The Saints defense stymied the Patriots offense, and the Saints offense picked apart the New England defense. It was unbelievable, really. For the Colts and Patriots to play one of their closely-fought, could-have-gone-either-way annual battles wasn't surprising. And for the Patriots to lose that game (albeit in a controversial way) was no humiliation. But this?

The Saints proved themselves to be the better team on the field last night. And while it might be a toss-up if the Patriots and Colts played again next Sunday, you get the feeling that if the Patriots and Saints had a re-match, New Orleans would win again. They looked great.

And so one wonders just what happened last night. Just a regular season game? Perhaps. But I wonder if something larger took place. I wonder if the 7-4 Patriots are no longer the cream of the NFL crop. And I wonder if -- for coaching, for management, for quarterbacking, and for defense -- the center of the NFL universe has moved south to New Orleans.

Of course, the Patriots earned their reputation over the long haul, including multiple Super Bowls. In that sense, the Saints haven't won anything yet. But they have proven to my satisfaction that they are, at least, the best team in the 2009 NFL.

I Hate Field Goals

Thanksgiving Day went well enough, but Sunday was a bust for the Packers.

We wanted the Falcons to lose. They won by a field goal.

We wanted the Eagles to lose. They won by a field goal.

And, loosely at least, we wanted the Ravens to lose. They won by a field goal in overtime.

Ugh.

I watched that Pittsburgh-Baltimore game on Sunday Night, and I'm not sure I want to have to play either of these teams. But we have both of them on our remaining schedule.

On Saturday, the ACC was conspicuously embarrassed. Their top two teams were upset by also-rans from the SEC. It confirms the suspicion that the SEC is just simply a superior Conference.

I raise the point because I wonder if the same thing might be true of the AFC and NFC North Divisions. I wonder if their Division is just simply better than ours. Remember that our best team was beaten by their second place team -- and was nearly beaten by their third place team. And I fear that both of those teams may beat us, too.

Again, I believe that we would have had a better chance against the Ravens if they had lost on Sunday Night. Now, however, they're right in the thick of the AFC wild card race, and they'll come into Lambeau ready to rumble. I have visions of Ray Lewis breaking Aaron Rodgers in two.

If he does, we can be sure that Coach will fix it during halftime.

See You in December

Well, with a long break before the Ravens visit to Lambeau, the Packers don't play again until Sunday, December 6th. And that suddenly makes the remainder of the season seem rather short.

So with just 5 weeks left in the regular season, what are the chances that the Packers will still be playing 6 weeks from now?

Happily -- perhaps surprsingly -- we begin from a position of strength: namely, if the season were to end today, we'd be in the playoffs as one of the NFC wild card teams. In theory, therefore, all we have to do is keep winning, and we're in. We control our own destiny. We don't yet need anyone else to win or lose.

And what are the prospects for the Packers to just keep winning?

Well, first, we host the (5-5) Baltimore Ravens. Personally, while I am unaccustomed to rooting for the Pittsburgh Steelers, they'll be my team of choice on Sunday Night when they visit Baltimore. I think that if the Ravens come into Lambeau at 5-6, they'll have so little realistic hope of making a playoff run that we'll enjoy a large "something to play for" advantage. That, plus home field, plus additional rest, should be enough to carry the day.

Then we hit the road to play the (4-6) Bears followed by the defending champion (6-4) Steelers. I am seriously concerned about two consecutive losses on this road trip. I know that the Bears have turned into a train wreck in 2009, but our recent record against them has been uneven, and Lovie Smith has made beating the Packers a personal priority. Meanwhile, the Steelers are not the team they were in 2008, and I think that if we play our best game we would win. Still, I'm not convinced that we'll beat these guys -- not in Heinz Field, without Al Harris, with so much at stake for Pittsburgh. We'll give a closer analysis to both of these games when they roll around. From this distance, though, I'm projecting an 8-6 record for the Pack when we host the Seattle Seahawks.

I believe we'll beat Seattle, carrying a 9-6 record into our final game.

We finish the season at the (7-3) Cardinals. My expectation is that, by that time, the Cardinals will have won their Division, but the Saints and Vikings will have locked up the top two seeds in the NFC. Accordingly, I see the Cardinals resting a lot of their guys in anticipation of a playoff game the following week. I'm not sure we could beat them at full strength on the road, but I do believe we will beat an Arizona team with nothing to play for in Week 17.

Accordingly, I am presently predicting a 10-6 finish for the 2009 Packers. If we make that threshhold, then I see us winning one of the wild card spots.

We'll keep updating these projections as events unfold.

Happy Thanksgiving -- The Sequel

It was already a happy Thanksgiving Day of football when the Packers easily dispatched the Lions and ran their record to 7-4. But then, in the evening, the football day got even better when the Broncos, who had been spiraling out of control, dominated the visiting Giants.

New York was one of the teams right on our heels for the 6th playoff spot, and now we've got a one-game separation between us and them.

Now if only the Eagles and Falcons would cooperate by losing on Sunday, we could all breathe a bit more easily.

Happy Thanksgiving

It was a disconcerting start -- fumbled kickoff, dumb penalty, early deficit, missed field goal -- but the visiting Packers overcame their early troubles to jump out in front and never look back. It wasn't a virtuoso performance, but it was good enough to get the W against a bad team.

Matthew Stafford had become a local hero with this gutty and effective comeback win against the Browns. And he showed the spirit of a comeback kid in the 4th quarter of the Packer game, as well. His several interceptions, however, were likely too much to overcome.

Going into halftime, with the Packers leading just 13-7, Joe Buck congratulated the Detroit defense for stopping Green Bay when it counted. That is to say, even though the Packer offense was effectively driving down the field, the Lion defense twice stopped them in the red zone.

I take issue with that interpretation of events, however. I don't think Green Bay's failure to score in the red zone -- indeed, to score after two first-and-goal opportunities -- is a credit to Detroit's defense. Rather, it reveals a weakness in the Packers' offense: we can't score up close.

I've heard many commentators refer to Green Bay's "explosive offense" or "big play offense." By that they mean that we can score from 30, 40, 50 yards out. My concern is that that may be the only way we can score touchdowns. Once we're less than 20 yards away, however, we show that we don't really have the offensive scheme to finish the job.

What does that pattern mean? I'm not sure, but my hunch is that goes something like this: Our long-distance scoring is a credit to our speedy wideouts, while our up-close impotence reflects the ineffectiveness of our offensive line.

Whatever. We won the game, and I'm sure that Coach McCarthy will identify those problems and get 'em fixed.

Beating the Lions is not necessarily a great achievement. All but two teams in the past two years have beaten them, after all. But it's better than losing to them (cf. Tampa Bay). And now, after dropping to .500 following the Buccaneer debacle, Green Bay has reeled off 3 straight wins and they're right in the thick of the NFC wild card race.

Well, the Packers get to go home now, get some days off, and then host the struggling Ravens, who will be coming off a short week. 'More about that match-up in a few days. In the meantime, we'll cheer for the Steelers on Monday Night so that Baltimore has virtually nothing left to play for when they arrive at Lambeau.

Week Twelve -- A Look Ahead

It's one of the best weekends in the NFL -- Thanksgiving weekend!

Three games are on tap on the holiday itself this year, and ours is the first of them. The Packers are back where they belong: in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day.

The Lions' heroic effort to win as time expired last week against the visiting Browns may have been an emotional turning point for the perennial losers. We may be catching them at a bad time.

Green Bay, meanwhile, is coming off a pair of solid performances. The problem, however, is how costly last Sunday's win was. Both Al Harris and Aaron Kampman are reportedly lost for the season. I don't think that will be enough to make us losers on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit. It will likely cost us against some other teams down the road (Pittsburgh and Arizona come to mind).

Meanwhile, the other two Thanksgiving Day match-ups are also of interest to us. Later in the afternoon, the Raiders play the Cowboys. If the game were in Oakland, I might have some hope, for we have seen other good teams go their to die this season. In Dallas, however, I suspect that talent will prevail. Still, our rooting interest is with the Raiders.

Finally, the evening tilt on Thanksgiving features the Giants in Denver. It has been a rare occasion, indeed, when I have found myself cheering for the Broncos, but they'll be my team on Thursday Night. Such is the deal-with-the-devil one makes when playing for a wild card spot.

The Broncos are in the same position that the Giants were two weeks ago: namely, a team that started so strong, only to have the wheels fall off suddenly and inexplicably. New York seems to have gotten back on track. Now the Broncos need to -- badly need to -- but it's going to be a tough assignment on a short week. At least they're playing at home.

Meanwhile, on Sunday afternoon, we'll be cheering for the Redskins as they travel to Philadelphia. Odds are against us in that one.

Likewise, we'll be rooting for the Bucs in Atlanta, but I'm not holding my breath for a victory there, either.

Apart from our own game, therefore, I don't really expect much to go right for us this weekend in terms of the wild card race. On the other hand, if we just keep winning, we're in.

Other games of general interest to football fans...

I wonder if the Bears will be able to upend the Vikings. Anything can happen within the Division. Plus, the Bears are playing for their playoff lives -- and the coaches for their jobs -- while the Vikings may take the foot off the pedal a bit now that they have such a commanding lead in the Division.

It will also be interesting to see what happens when the Cardinals visit the Titans. Arizona is undefeated on the road this season, but Tennessee has suddenly become a force again. Vince Young is undefeated as a starter this season, and people are talking about the mature quarterback and multiple threat that he has become. Should be a fascinating game.

Still more fascinating is the Colts visit to Houston. The Texans are clinging to the slightest of playoff hopes -- they need this win. The Colts, however, are undefeated, and just keep finding a way to win, one game at a time.

Sunday Nights' game is another great match-up: Steelers at Ravens. The defending champion Steelers have been disappointing this season, and now they're looking up at the Bengals in their Division. The Ravens, meanwhile, jumped out to a great start, only to find themselves at .500, in third place, and struggling to stay in the postseason picture.

Meanwhile, however, the very best game of the week is on Monday Night.

After some recent clunkers, the Monday Night crew has hit the jackpot this week: Patriots at Saints. What a beauty! The Saints are undefeated and look amazing. But if anyone on their remaining schedule can keep them from going 16-0, it's the only team that has gone 16-0 in the regular season. This will be a great test to see just how good these Saints are. And with the Vikings right on their heels in the Conference standings, they can't afford to let this one get away.

Bottom line? Packers win, but the current NFC playoff seedings remain basically unchanged. And one of the two remaining undefeated teams goes down this week.

Playing Downhill

When I lived in Virginia, there was a drive I would routinely make that took me over the Blue Ridge Mountains. Heading east across the mountains, I discovered that the descent on the east side was so steep that I could turn off my car and coast for quitea few miles before needing to use the engine again -- such was the downhill momentum.

Fortunately, the Packers had climbed to a high enough altitude in the first half that they could get away with coasting through the second half.

After dominating San Francisco through the first 30 minutes and achieving a 23-3 lead, Green Bay lacked rhytm on offense and lost some of their fire on defense, getting outscored 21-7 in the second thirty minutes. It was like two different games. Happily, we won the first game by slightly more than they won the second game by.

Nice halftime adjustments, Coach.

At times, Sunday's second half felt eerily like the fourth quarter in Tampa Bay. Especially after our special teams followed the offense's touchdown drive by giving up an enormous, momentum-shifting kick return.

The first half showed our capabilities, and they are considerable. The running game, with its strong 4.9 yards per attempt average for the game; the passing game, which can be both efficient and explosive; and the defense, which was aggressive and smothering -- if these qualities can be maintained for 60 minutes, I believe we could be competitive with anyone in the league.

But then, perhaps any team could make the same case: that they could play with anyone if only they always played their best.

Well, we didn't play our best for 6o minutes. But we played well enough to beat a sub-.500 team at home. Now, after a short week, we'll see if we can play well enough to beat a sub-.500 team on the road.

Week Eleven -- A Look Ahead

Once again, the NFL weekend began on Thursday Night, as the Panthers hosted the undermanned Dolphins. In our jockeying for wild card position, our hearts were with the Dolphins, though I honestly didn't have much hope for this one. Surprisingly, however, Miami pulled it off, knocking one of our many mid-level NFL competitors down a peg for us.

The rest of the action of interest to us, meanwhile, is slated for Sunday afternoon and evening.

First, there is our own game. The 49ers come to Lambeau this Sunday. San Francisco got off to a very hot start this season, including giving Minnesota more of a run for its money than the Packers managed to do in either of their opportunities. But then the wheels came off a bit, and now they're wallowing at 4-5, two games behind the Division-leading Cardinals. This is a very important game for them. They still have playoff hopes, but it's hard to imagine those hopes remaining alive if they dropped to 4-6.

If this game were being played on the West Coast, I'd be more worried. As it is, I'm pretty hopeful about the Packers building on the momentum from last Sunday and getting the job done again this week at home.

Elsewhere, we'll be Redskin fans -- an unhappy assignment this season -- as they visit the Cowboys. It's not essential that Dallas lose, since they are the NFC East Division leaders. Still, having beaten them head-to-head, and given the tightness of that 3-way race, I'd prefer to see Dallas in the wild card race and either the Giants or Eagles (whom we do not play) win the Division. So, go Hawgs!

The Seahawks will travel to Minnesota, where they will lose. Whatever.

The Saints will try to stay perfect in Tampa Bay, which I expect they'll manage to do.

The Falcons play the Giants in New York this Sunday. It is in the Packers' best wild card interests for both of these teams to lose. That can't happen this week, of course. But the good news is that at least one of the teams that we need to have lose is certain to!

Meanwhile, it's not essential to us that the Arizona Cardinals lose, and that's a good thing, because they're playing St. Louis this weekend. The fact is that we don't need any of the other NFC Division leaders to lose -- so long as they stay the Division leaders, that is. So it's okay with us if the Cardinals win, as long as the 49ers lose and remain the NFC West team that is against us in the wild card race. Happily, the 49ers' fate is in our hands this weekend.

Also, looking a little further down the road, not only do we want the 49ers to lose, but it would be nice if Arizona kept winning and San Fran kept losing so that the Cardinals could lock up their Division and have little or nothing to play for when we meet them in Arizona at the end of the regular season.

A couple of good match-ups are on tap in the AFC...

The Chargers are playing in Denver with the AFC West lead at stake. These are two teams going in opposite directions. The Broncos are lucky to be playing at home -- perhaps they can fix whatever has been wrong these past three weeks. Doesn't matter to me: I don't have a dog in this fight.

Another interesting AFC game is the Jets-Patriots match-up. The Jets won their first game, but they've been falling apart recently. The Patriots, meanwhile, are looking much stronger, and they have to be mad as hornets after blowing the big lead in Indianapolis last Sunday Night.

This Sunday Night, meanwhile, is another good one as the Eagles travel to Chicago. Both teams need this game. The Bears need it more, but the Eagles are better. If Philly comes into Chicago and wins, it may be the final nail in the Bears' very disappointing coffin. Given the relative records, I'll bite the lemon and cheer for Chicago in this one.

Finally, did you see that the Browns are playing the Lions this weekend? Wow -- what a contest! It seems to me that the FCC ought to step in and take some sort of preemptive action, for this one is just too ugly to broadcast.

A Certain Kind of Ugly

Peter King (SI.com) offers his picks of all the weekend's games online every week, and he gives his readers a chance to weigh in with their picks.

http://www.fannation.com/peter_king_challenge/peter_king?eref=sihp

You will note that he is picking the Lions to beat the visiting Browns this Sunday. Fine. But as of this moment, I see that 89% of the voting public is also picking the Lions. That strikes me as truly remarkable.

The Detroit Lions set a new NFL record for futility just last season, going 0-16 in 2008. So far in 2009, they are a pathetic 1-8.

So what does it say about the Browns when 89% of fans believe that the Detroit Lions are going to beat you? Wow. That's a certain kind of ugly.

Around the League

Between our enjoyment of the Packer-Cowboy game and our anticipation of the Packer-49er game, we take a moment for a quick look around the rest of the league....

We see that the Dolphins managed to overcome the football colossus that is Tampa Bay. So we know it can be done.

Meanwhile, that loss to the Bengals earlier in the season keeps looking better and better, doesn't it? Cincinnati has now swept both the Ravens and the Steelers in 2009. And I assume they'll complete their sweep of the Browns, thus completing their undefeated run through the AFC North for the season.

Has the Vince Young era officially begun (or re-begun?) in Tennessee? The previously woeful Titans are 3-0 under Young in 2009.

Elsewhere, the bloom is off the rose for Josh McDaniels' Broncos. They were competing for the Most Surprising Team of the Year Award as they rocketed out to a 6-0 start and a big lead in their Division. Now, however, they have lost 3 straight, including most recently a loss to the punchline Redskins. Kyle Orton is hurt. (Who would have thought, back in Chicago, that that particular headline would change a team's fate from winners to losers?) And now they have to play the surging Chargers, with the Division lead on the line.

The 2009 Browns are redefining "dismal." Did you see that Monday Night performance, at home, against the 4-4 Ravens? Boy, was that bleak! The GM has already been released. One wonders how much longer Mangini will last. Perhaps Cleveland should let this particular version of its franchise move away in the middle of the night, too, and try again with a new expansion club a few years later. This is just painful.

Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills are the first ones into the pool this year -- the coaching pool, that is. They have fired Dick Jauron, and they're turning to a respected coordinator on their own staff to be the interim coach. (That worked well last year for the 49ers, remember.) And, in the meantime, they get a head start on flirting with Mike Shanahan, Bill Cowher, et al.

Much went right for the Packers over the weekend, in addition to their own key victory over the Cowboys. The Bears, Falcons, and Eagles all lost, which are very important developments in our wild card hunt. You'll see in the Conference standings on the right that Green Bay has moved up one slot in the current seeding. We would not have a playoff berth if the season ended today, but we're just barely outside that coveted circle.

The Vikings beat the Lions. Ho-hum, whatever. Of course they did.

Finally, the biggest football news of the weekend was the Colts' comeback win against the Patriots. What a game! If I were a New England fan (which I am decidedly not, apart from that Super Bowl long ago when they beat the heavily favored St. Louis Rams), I would be deeply, deeply bitter about this one. To lead by 17 points in the 4th quarter and lose is galling no matter the game. And then for it to happen in this particular game -- this rivalry, which postseason seeding so much at stake, and all because of such a (seemingly stupid) coaching decision. Wow -- what a game!

What Do We Know?

Coming out of the preseason, the question was, "Just how good are these Packers?"

Coming off the loss to Tampa Bay at the halfway point in the season, on the other hand, the question had become, "Just how bad are these Packers?"

We were 4-4 going into our match-up with the Cowboys. But see the quality of those wins and losses...

We had beaten the Bears, Rams, Lions, and Browns. As of our kickoff on Sunday, those teams were an astonishing 7-28 combined. That sort of schedule is an embarrassment. Indeed, when the 2009 Bears are evidently the best team you've beaten, you've really got to wonder about yourself!

Meanwhile, we had lost to the Bengals, the Bucs, and the Vikings (twice). As of kickoff, those teams were a modest 16-11 combined.

So what to make of the Packers? They led the league in sacks allowed. They led the league in penalties. Those suggested a lousy team. On the other hand, both the offense and defense were ranked high statistically, suggesting a pretty good team. Put 'em together and what have you got?

4-4.

But now we are 5-4, and our fifth win came against a much more respectable opponent than our previous four did. The Cowboys, after all, were 6-2 and atop the NFC East -- no mean Division. And they had been playing well, so it's not as though we caught them in the midst of a bad period. They had shown some considerable explosiveness on offense and special teams along the way, yet the Packers managed to stifle both, pitching a shutout for all but the final minute of the game.

So, what to make of our Packers now? Were they underachieving in their four losses? Or did they overachieve on Sunday against the Cowboys?

I believe we showed a little more of what we are capable of, which is encouraging. I am also encouraged by the fact that we dominated Dallas without really playing our best game. That is to say, we still gave up too many sacks (4) and had too many penalties (12). If we could solve those nagging problems, just think how much more dominant we could have been!

Accordingly, I am willing to come down on the side of the "underachieving" alternative. Clearly that was the case last week in Tampa Bay. And our other three losses came against two teams (the Vikings and Bengals) who, after all, have beaten almost everyone that they've played this season! Those losses are no disgrace, therefore.

And so I take the Cowboys victory as a glimpse of our true potential -- and therefore as a promise of things to come!

Masterpiece!

I heard a lot of apprehension from Packer fans going into today's match-up with the Cowboys. The anxiety was understandable, of course, given Green Bay's inconsistency in general, added to their amazing breakdown against Tampa Bay last week. Still, as you can see in my preview post, I had some hope for Green Bay this week.

While I thought the Packers would win, however, I had no idea at all that they would -- could! -- dominate Dallas the way that they did. It wasn't a romp, of course, like the Lion game or Browns game, but in a sense it was an even better win. Running it up against an inferior team is a dubious achievement. But keeping a lid on an explosive offense all game long, gutting it out in a closely-fought contest, avoiding the costly mistake, forcing the big error, and effectively sealing the deal in the end -- that was a thing of beauty.

Our offensive line hardly indulged Rodgers with oodles of time, but they did keep him cleaner than in several weeks this season -- and, frankly, cleaner than I expected. More to the point, our defense made more sacks than our offense gave up. We forced more turnovers than we committed. We converted more 3rd downs. We gained more yards. And we held the ball for 11 minutes longer.

There are still things to be fixed, of course. It wasn't a perfect game. But we welcomed in a Division-leading team that was playing its best football, and we outplayed them. In every phase of the game.

If we had lost this week, I believe it would have been time to pull up the sheets over our collective face. But, no. Signs of life!

And so our playoff hopes remain alive.

Week Ten -- A Look Ahead

Week Ten began on Thursday Night, and the game happened to be of interest to us, and it happened to go our way -- the 49ers beat the Bears.

Now we turn our attention to the regular slate of games on Sunday and Monday.

Come early Sunday afternoon, the Vikings will host the Lions. Seeing as how I have emotionally conceded the Division to Minnesota, I won't grieve too much the fact that the Vikings are almost certain to win this game. Oh well.

Late on Sunday afternoon, meanwhile, is when the Packers will kick off. The Cowboys are coming to town, and they are playing better football than the Packers have been of late. If Week Ten is simply a continuation of Weeks 8 and 9, Green Bay will lose. On the other hand, Week 10 doesn't have to be a simple extrapolation of what has come before.

My chief concern -- predictably -- is that we won't be able to protect Aaron Rodgers. But if we were able to get our act together in that one, fundamental part of the game, I believe it would make a HUGE difference. Our passing game would become the explosive and productive force that it could be, which would open up our running game. And if our running and passing game were functioning properly, we'd rack up points and we'd keep the opponent's offense off the field. And if the offense were putting up points the way they're capable of, then our defense could play downhill, which I think is what they do best. So, it's that simple: protect Rodgers and Green Bay wins.

Elsewhere...

I will be mildly rooting for the visiting, underdog Seahawks to beat the Cardinals. It's not essential for the Packers' purposes, but it would be useful.

The Eagles travel to San Diego. The two teams are in identical positions in their Divisions, though on balance Philly is playing better football. As we jockey for an NFC wild card berth, we'll be rooting for the Chargers. Happily, the Eagles have to travel cross-country to play this one.

Falcons head to Carolina, and we will root, root, root for the home team in this one, as well. Atlanta is currently ahead of us in the wild card race, and so we'd like to see them knocked down a peg.

The Saints play at St. Louis, so you can expect them to remain undefeated for yet another week.

Finally, how ugly is the inequity of prime time scheduling? The Sunday Night Football gang gets to broadcast the Patriots-Colts game. The next night, meanwhile, the Monday Night crew has to cover the Ravens-Browns game. Wow!

The Sunday Night folks get to cover the marquee game of the week -- the perennial grudge match of AFC powers, featuring two of the most popular, most talented, most recognizeable QBs in the game.

Monday Night Football, on the other hand, is saddled with broadcasting the accident by the side of the road. The Browns are an absolute mess. The Cleveland fans are in revolt. And the visiting Ravens, of course, represent the real Browns that were stolen from Cleveland back in the early 90s. It's a recipe for ugly on MNF.

Bottom line? Vikings win. Saints stay undefeated. Colts get knocked off their perfect record perch. And the Packers...? WIN! -- thus reviving the fading hopes of Packer fans everywhere and reestablishing our place in the playoff race.

Bad News in the News

I came across two disturbing bits of Packer news recently. Perhaps you did, too.

First, there is the news report about the long-time Packer employee who was evidently fired for a seemingly harmless commment made to Mike McCarthy. Here's the story.

http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/127990-packers-employee-fired-over-mccarthy-remark?eref=sihp

I can't imagine Lombardi firing anyone for this. I'm afraid it's a symptom of some insecurity at the top.

Meanwhile, some guy did an exhaustive study of sacks in the NFL -- he watched tape of every sack in every NFL game so far this season! -- and he identified which players have given up the most sacks through the halfway point in the season. Here's the result of his research:

http://nfl.fanhouse.com/2009/11/13/between-the-lines-whos-allowing-the-most-sacks/

Note that there are three Green Bay offensive linemen in the Top 10 in the league! (Or should we call it the Bottom 10?) Nice drafting, Ted. Way to coach 'em up, Mike.

(Wait, can I get fired for saying that?)

Our 3-Way Race

At the beginning of this 2009 NFL season, conventional wisdom was that the NFC North would be a 3-way race. No one took seriously the Lions (of 0-16 fame), but all the signs pointed to a competitive race between the Bears, Packers, and Vikings. Different 'experts' projected different winners for the end of the season. It was not clear going in which team would be the best team.

Now, halfway through the season, it's quite clear which of the three is the best team, and the Vikings are running away with the Division. Winning the NFC North is hardly in question any more. Now they have their sights set on best record in the Conference and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Packers and Bears thrash around at or below .500, monuments to inconsistency and unpredictability.

The Chicago game on Thursday Night was a certain sort of symbol. The Bears had the ball in the Red Zone with 08 seconds left and down by 4 points. I wonder... If all three teams in the anticipated 3-way race had been in that position, what would have happened to each?

I say that, if the Vikings had the ball in that situation, Favre would fake a handoff to the much-feared Adrian Peterson, drop back to pass, and throw a touchdown pass to Percy Harvin to win the game.

I say that Aaron Rodgers would fake a handoff to the much-less-feared Ryan Grant, drop back to pass, and get sacked.

And Jay Cutler? He threw an interception in the end zone -- just according to script.

One Down

I suppose there are 5 games of interest to Packer fans this NFL weekend -- games with implications for us and our playoff hopes.

One of them was the Thursday Night tilt between the Bears and 49ers. In a sense, of course, we want both teams to lose, but at 4-4 the Bears were more of an immediate issue for us than the 3-5 49ers. And so we were looking for a San Francisco win on Thursday night.

And we got it.

Both teams needed this game. The Bears have been humiliated in 2 of their last 3 outings. The 49ers, meanwhile, have quickly forefeited their early advantage in the NFC West, with last week's loss to the one-win Titans being a particularly bitter blow.

In the end, it was a close game, which is something of a bright spot for the Bears compared with their other two most recent losses. On the other hand, the Cutler experiment blew up in their faces again: this time it was a 5 interception performance. FIVE!

Bears fans were so giddy when they traded Orton for Cutler. It looked like a steal of a deal. They talked about having their first franchise quarterback since the days of leather helmets. "Da Bears" were back!

Well, Orton is sitting atop the AFC West with the 6-2 Broncos. (And Cedric Benson, another former Bear that Chicago happily jettisoned, is sitting atop the AFC North with the 6-2 Bengals.) Meanwhile, the Cutler-led Bears are under .500, they're three-and-a-half games back in the Division, and they've lost 3 of their last 4 games.

Things are even uglier in Chicago than they are in Green Bay, which is almost enough to bring a smile to the otherwise sad faces in Packerland this week.

Debacle -- Part 2

Okay, so what went wrong?

The strong emotions that follow immediately in the wake of a loss have subsided somewhat, and so now the time has come for a dispassionate analysis of the game. So what went wrong? How did we lose?

Penalties were down from previous weeks (although while Green Bay had only 5, Tampa Bay had only 2). The running game was solid. The defense was not overwhelmingly successful, but I believe they actually did a reasonably good job given the field position they were sometimes called upon to protect. We outgained the Bucs on the ground, we outgained them in the air, and we out-possessed them by more than 10 minutes.

So what went wrong?

First, special teams play was notorious again. The Bucs' return yardage for the game was 247, while the Packers' was a paltry 114.

Second, the offensive line gave up another 6 sacks. At the mid-point of the season, we are on pace to beat our franchise record for most sacks allowed. And, worse yet, we are only 1 off the pace for breaking the NFL all-time record! The 2009 Packers could lay claim to the title of worst offensive line in NFL history.

Finally, Aaron Rodgers threw 3 interceptions. The first two problems we mentioned were preexisting conditions. This interception issue, however, was a new contribution specially for this week's loss.

In the end, of course, it was a game lost in the 4th quarter. We earned our way to an 11-point lead and yet we came out with a 10-point deficit. A 21-point 4th-quarter turnaround against an 0-7 team. That is the truly disheartening part.

It's not like all the sacks came in the 4th quarter, or all the interceptions. It was a team effort. The offense became timid and ineffectual. The special teams gave up a huge 83-yard kickoff return that sent momentum right back to the other team following our TD. And the defense rolled over against a rookie QB making his first NFL start.

It's a bit of a cliche, but the Buccaneers simply seemed to want it more. That's a disgrace, of course, given the fact that Tampa Bay really had almost nothing to play for, while the Packers were a team in the midst of a legitimate playoff hunt.

And now the Cowboys come to town. They're hot, they're 6-2, and they're on top of the NFC East. It's a home game, and it might not be unrealistic to call it a must-win situation for Green Bay. If they don't come out of this one with a "W," I fear things will begin to fall apart as the players wave the white flag on 2009.

We'll take a closer look at the upcoming Cowboys game, as well as other action around the league, over the weekend.

Weighing In

If Green Bay had won Sunday at Tampa Bay, I don't think anyone would have been singing our praises or making plane reservations to go to the Super Bowl. But in the wake of our mind-boggling loss, the voices of doom are getting louder.

SI.com has started to write the Packers' 2009 epitaph:
http://nfl.fanhouse.com/2009/11/08/four-contenders-in-serious-trouble/?ncid=txtlnkusspor00000002

Meanwhile, Mark Belling of WISN 1130 AM also weighed in today on the Packers' grim future. His reasoned conclusion is that Ted Thompson is the one who has to go.

This is not an emotional reaction by Belling (unlike those of us who have wanted to see Thompson whacked ever since he jettisoned Favre). Rather, Belling's point is that Thompson has always argued that the best way to build a team is through the draft but that Thompson's drafts have been disastrous. He also observed that Thompson inherited an outstanding offensive line, and now that part of our squad has become a league-wide embarrassment. And, finally, Belling noted that special teams are usually composed of late-round draft choices and reflect a team's depth of talent. And yet we have all seen how unspecial our special teams are.

When the vultures are circling overhead, you know what's going on down below.

Debacle -- Part 1

In Week 8, the Packers were the center of national attention because of the much-hyped return of Brett Favre to Lambeau Field. In Week 9, however, we expected to fly under the radar of national attention because of our ignominious opponent. But, no such luck. We stumbled our way into the spotlight again this week, this time by the unhappy distinction of losing to the one remaining winless team in the league.

Without question, this is the worst game of the season for Green Bay. We've lost before, but always to respectable foes. This, however, is a genuine embarrassment.

It turns out that you don't have to be Percy Harvin to look like a Pro Bowl return man against us. It turns out that you don't have to be Jared Allen to keep Aaron Rodgers on his back. And it turns out that you don't have to be Brett Favre or Carson Palmer to lead your team to victory against the 2009 Packers.

So very far from the preseason predictions that placed the Packers among the NFL elite, the '09 squad actually looks more like the '08 team that finished under .500. If we can't beat the 0-7 Bucs with a 4th-quarter lead, then how are we going to fare against the Cardinals, Steelers, and Ravens?

Last week's loss effectively knocked us out of the Division race. This week's loss does serious damage to even our wild card hopes. A real shame.

In the days ahead, we'll give some detailed consideration both to our loss and to the second half of our season. For now, though, suffice it to say that, as football goes, today was a disaster.

Midlife Crisis

It's the classic peril of middle-age. It's part of the emotional profile of a certain set of years in a person's life. And so, too, with an NFL team (and its fans).

When you are young, the possibilities are endless. You are invincible, you can be anything you want to be, and you can do anything you want to do. You look with disdain at adults who don't seem to have amounted to much, for you're sure you can be and do so much more.

After several decades of reality, however, you discover how many limiting factors there are in life. And by the time you hit middle-age, you are overwhelmed by the sobering recognition that, no, you can no longer do anything you might have wanted to do, and you will no longer be everything you might want to be.

Well, it's Week 9 in the NFL, and the season is now officially middle-aged. Specifically, the 2009 Packers are now middle-aged. And we are presented with the sober recognition that we aren't going to be and do all that we hoped and planned when we were young -- that is, when it was still the promising preseason.

Being one of the best teams in the NFL, having one of the best records in the NFC, winning the Division -- these are all out of reach now. They're not going to happen. And so, as we renegotiate our plans for the future, we set our sites somewhat lower. Time to aim for a wild card berth.

You will notice a new feature on the right. The "NFC Standings" will track where we stand within our Conference, which will ultimately determine playoff seedings.

As of today, we would not make the NFC playoffs. The Saints, Vikings, Eagles, and Cardinals are the Division leaders to-date, and the Cowboys and Giants would be the wild card teams. The Falcons, too, are ahead of us in that race. Meanwhile, the Bears are right on our heels.

So, we see who our competition is. And we'll cheer accordingly.

Week Nine -- A Look Ahead

Last week was our moment in the sun -- playing Favre and the Vikings -- and we got burnt. This week, by contrast, we'll be far removed from the NFL spotlight. Week 9 features a number of good match-ups, and ours is not one of them.

The Packers travel to Tampa to play the Buccaneers. The winless Buccaneers, I should say, for they are the lone remaining monument to futility in the 2009 NFL. There are quite a few bottom-feeders in this year's league (Browns, Raiders, Lions, Chiefs, to name a few), but record-wise the Bucs are the worst of them all.

I don't actually think they are the worst team, mind you. But at 0-7, they are a team we should beat. Indeed, they very much fit the profile of the kind of team that Green Bay has feasted on this year, so it should be an enjoyable Sunday.

Now, the Bucs are coming off their bye, and you have to believe that they will be playing with the resolve of a team determined to shake their undesirable claim to fame. Nevertheless, they shouldn't be a match for us -- and if they DO beat us, then there are some real coaching issues in Green Bay.

A much more compelling match-up is the Cardinals' trip to Chicago. These are a couple of Jekyll-and-Hyde teams, and it's just a matter of which team shows up on each side of the ball. There's no telling from week to week whether either will be dominant or embarrassing. Obviously, our loyalties are with the Cardinals.

Elsewhere in our Division, the Lions travel to Seattle in a game that matters to no one outside of Michigan or Washington.

Around the league, meanwhile, there are several very interesting match-ups this weekend...

The Giants and Chargers both really need a win. The Giants perhaps somewhat moreso, and they are the home team this weekend.

The Ravens-Bengals tilt is an important AFC North showdown, Cincy having already beaten Baltimore on the road earlier this season.

The Sunday Night game is a classic rivalry -- Cowboys at Eagles -- and it has the added benefit of being an important game in the standings right now. Both teams have looked pretty hot in recent weeks. When push comes to shove, though, I like Philly in this one. (Also, Philadelphia sports fans need some good cheer right now.)

And, finally, the Steelers travel to Denver to play the Broncos, who had been the undefeated, surprise team of the year up until last week. It's an important AFC battle, and it's on Monday Night Football.


Bottom line? A good week for Green Bay as the Packers win, the Bears lose, and the Vikings don't play. The Colts and Saints stay undefeated, and the Bucs stay winless.