"Merry Christmas, Green Bay!" Love, Matt H.

I like Matt Hasselbeck. I think he's a good guy. And he is very familiar to Packer fans, both from his early days on the Green Bay roster and from his several trips back to Lambeau in a Seahawk uniform.

Lambeau has not been friendly confines for Matt. The most famous interception, of course, was the overtime pick-six in the playoffs several years ago. But he was generous with the ball again today. Really, I felt bad for the guy.

The first INT was the most significant, in my judgment. The Packer offense had done nothing in their opening drive, except show an early inability to run the ball or protect the quarterback. Then, by contrast, the Seahawks took the ball on their opening drive and moved very smartly down the field. Really, it was textbook. They ran effectively against us, and that set up the pass for them. They kept making first downs, and it looked like they were going to grab the early lead -- as well as the momentum in the cold. They faced a third-and-short, which they probably could have converted by running straight ahead. Instead, they ran a rollout passing play, which the GB defense pursued well. And then came the inexplicable pass. That put momentum back on Green Bay's side, and we never gave it back.

The rest of the game was a thing of beauty. I liked Brandon Jackson's breakout performance -- one more thing for future opponents to think about. I liked our kick coverage not giving back momentum after a Packer score. I liked the aggressive, ball-hawking defense. I liked Rodgers' unemotional efficiency. I liked going for it on 4th-and-goal at the 1 (even though a penalty cost us the TD). I like Jermichael Finley -- what a weapon. I liked the early insertion of Matt Flynn. I liked the rewarding final score for the faithful, frozen sellout crowd at Lambeau. And I liked that Mason Crosby didn't screw up any kicks.

And, a thousand miles to the east, I liked the Panthers' remarkable performance in the Meadowlands. More on that next time.

Week Sixteen -- A Look Ahead

Week 16 begins on Christmas night -- an awful thing to do, it seems to me, to NFL players and their families. The Chargers are in Tennessee to take on the surging Titans. If Tennessee manages to start the season at 0-6 and still make the playoffs, it may be more remarkable than the Colts going 16-0. In any case, they have to win this game against a very tough, very hot AFC foe to stay in the hunt.

The AFC is such a jumbled scene right now -- not nearly so straightforward as the NFC picture -- and so all sorts of games are important in that Conference this weekend... Texans at Dolphins, Broncos at Eagles (which, of course, is also important to the NFC picture), Jets at Colts, and Ravens at Steelers.

The latter game is one of most highly anticipated, not only because of the playoff quality, but also because of the bad blood between these two teams. It should be a bruising physical battle. What's the word commentators like to use so much? "Chippy"? Expect to see a lot of "chippy" behavior on the field in Pittsburgh.

The Jets-Colts contest also has its drama. It's must-win for the Jets, while it is completely inconsequential for the Colts... except for the perfect record that is at stake!

The Raiders' trip to Cleveland doesn't matter for the AFC playoff picture, but both teams have shown signs of late-season improvement. The Browns will be looking for their third consecutive win, and one has to think that Mangini is coaching for his job with Mike Holmgren looking over his shoulder as the incoming President.

Meanwhile, on the NFC side of the ledger...

The situation, as we have detailed elsewhere, comes down to the Eagles, Cowboys, Giants, and Packers competing for three available playoff spaces: the NFC East title and two wild card spots.

Generally speaking, the Packers are in good shape, though they haven't clinched yet. We're targeting the Cowboys and Giants as our primary competition. The Panthers have the capacity to go into New York and upset the Giants, but I'm not betting on it. I think there's a stronger chance that the Redskins might upset the Cowboys in Washington -- though they'll have to play considerably better than they did against the Giants last week. They have the potential for a shut-down defense, and Dallas may have lost some focus after their surprising upset of the Saints in New Orleans. It's the Sunday Night game, which I believe is the best televised football product in the league these days. I look forward to watching it and rooting for Washington.

We could also welcome an Eagles loss. I don't think the Broncos will manage to beat them in Philly, but Denver badly needs the game. The Broncos are the opposite story from the Titans -- they started 6-0, but run the risk now of missing the playoffs altogether.

The Monday Night game is also an interesting one for us -- an NFC North grudge-match between the Bears and Vikings. Minnesota needs to regain its equilibrium, while everyone in Chicago -- from the front office on down -- is playing for his job. The forecast for Chicago on Monday Night sports temps in the low 20s. Not terrible weather, but a very different environment from the climate-controlled Metrodome. And Packer fans know well that Favre's cold-weather performance declined toward the end of his Green Bay tenure. The Vikings need to be playing their best ball now -- not in September and October.

Finally, the Seahawks are coming back to Lambeau. It's an easy game to look past, for every indicator says we should win this one. Still, they'll have 11 professional athletes on the field at any given moment, too, so we mustn't count this W before it is hatched.

Bottom line... I expect the Packers to win, but I also expect all three of our chief NFC opponents to win, forcing the issue to Week 17.

Lost Weekend

Fortunately the Packers went into Week 15 in pretty good shape, otherwise the weekend would have been disastrous for us.

We are basically in a four-teams-for-two-spaces wild card race with the NFC East. The Eagles (10-4), the Cowboys (9-5), and the Giants (8-6) are all competing with each other for their Division title and with us (9-5) for the two NFC wild card slots. Unhappily, all three of those teams won this weekend, while Green Bay lost. Ugh.

The Eagles beat the visiting 49ers. That didn't surprise me. The Giants absolutely manhandled the Redskins in Washington, which did surprise me. And the Cowboys upset the previously undefeated Saints in New Orleans, which shocked me.

Happily, Green Bay still controls its own destiny. If we beat the Seahawks at home and the Cardinals on the road, we'll be in, no matter what anyone else does. Also happily, we own tie-breakers against the Cowboys and Eagles, should we end in a tie with either of them. The Giants, however, are the team we need to fear, for they have some tie-breaking edge over us.

Obviously the most simple formula for us to follow is to root against all three of these teams. And since both a Division title and the two wild card berths are available, only one of the four vying teams will get left out. So we're still in good shape.

I think it's safe to assume that we'll beat Seattle this Sunday in Green Bay. The next week in Arizona, however, is not such a sure thing. Here, then, is our nightmare scenario:

Green Bay beats Seattle but loses to Arizona and ends at 10-6.

The Cowboys beat the Redskins on the road and the Eagles at home, ending at 11-5.

The Eagles beat the visiting Broncos but lose in Dallas, ending at 11-5.

The Giants beat the hapless Redskins in New York and then beat the nothing-to-play-for Vikings in Minnesota, ending at 10-6.

That particular concoction would leave the Packers at home when the playoffs start. That's the scenario we're aiming to avoid -- first, by winning both our games; and, second, by cheering for each of those three NFC East teams to lose this weekend.

The Rest of the Story

Well, we covered "the good" of Sunday's game against Pittsburgh. Now it's time to identify "the bad and the ugly."

I was able to generate a list of ten good things. With a little effort I probably could have expanded it to 12 or 14. The list of bad things will not be so long, but it will be deeper -- and therefore more serious.

So, what was wrong with Sunday's game against the Steelers?

1) Defense. The game was painful from, literally, Pittsburgh's first offensive play to its last. They scored a touchdown on their first play, and they scored one on their last. They were both pass plays. And that fact captures the most alarming element of Sunday's loss. Pittsburgh put up over 500 passing yards against our vaunted defense -- and that without much threat of a running game! They torched us with big-play passes -- like the first touchdown, plus a number of long-yardage conversions. And they picked us apart with short passes, too. In this regard, I think they ignored the tapes of our last 5 wins and studied the earlier film from the teams that had beaten us early in the season, where we noted this weakness before: namely, that you can get 7-15 yards at will against Green Bay by throwing against our linebackers in coverage. Now, not everyone boasts the kind of tight end that Pittsburgh does, but still it is a very troubling weakness.

2) Defense again. Two different times in the 4th quarter, the offense handed the defense the lead. All they had to do was get a couple of stops. These guys came in with the #2 ranked defense in the NFL -- which is not a shabby statistic going into Week 15 of a season. But Pittsburgh moved the ball on them all day, and I saw no evidence of effective halftime adjustments. In the end, they had a team with 86 yards and 2 minutes to go. It wasn't a field goal game -- it was a touchdown. And yet they couldn't seal the deal. Very troubling.

3) Mason Crosby. It's hard not to say that he cost us this game since we lost by 1 point but he left 3 points on the field when he missed that 34-yard attempt in the first half. It's the fourth straight game that he has missed a field goal -- and it's not like these have not been 48- and 52-yard attempts. The guy is unreliable, and something needs to change.

4) Dropped passes. Pittsburgh got all the momentum early on -- forcing us to play catch-up -- largely because we kept going three-and-out in the first half of the game. And our failure to move the ball and make first downs was due, in large measure, to our receivers dropping the ball. This is not the first game where this has been a problem. And if they had done their job (catching the ball is, after all, what they are paid a very great deal of money to do), then we would have been playing from strength rather than weakness from the start.

5) The running game. I get the feeling that "establish the run" appears on Mike McCarthy's list of New Year's resolutions right after "lose weight." He keeps meaning to do it, but it seldom really gets done. I think he just has too great a craving for the passing game, and so Rodgers and the offensive line are put back on their heels from the start. To open with 6 straight passes against the Steelers' defense was especially foolish, since they are notorious for their blitz packages. Even though they didn't register a sack, they abused Rodgers during those first series. We needed to get them back on their heels by establishing the run from the start. And, later in the game, we could have helped our defense a bit by eating up more clock with an effective running game. We scored too quickly in the 4th quarter, leaving the Steelers with too much time in the end.

I'm Glad I'm Not...

I'm still feeling pretty bitter about the Packers' heart-breaking loss in Pittsburgh. That would have been such a beautiful win -- such a good achievement to come back in the 4th quarter on the road against a good team. Alas.

In any case, one of the therapeutic habits I've developed in my years of football fandom is to follow a disappointing loss by making a list of the fans that I'm glad I'm not. In other words, while it is a little painful to be a Packer fan today, I'm still glad that I'm not a fan of several other teams, instead...

I'm glad I'm not a Saints fan. I know that they've still got plenty to be happy and excited about, but you've got to know that their mouths were watering over the prospect of 16-0. To lose at home against the struggling Cowboys really hurts -- very disappointing. (Also disappointing for us as Packer fans!)

I'm glad I'm not a Vikings fan. They went into the game knowing that they could make up ground on the Saints, who stumbled on Saturday night. Instead, they couldn't close the deal on an out-of-contention Panther team, which only managed 6 points through 3 quarters. And, on top of it all, now they've got a QB-coach controversy to deal with all week.

I'm glad I'm not a Jets fan. They really needed a win on Sunday. The difference between 8-6 and 7-7 in the AFC just now is huge. They were at home, and they had the lead on the Falcons all game long. But they gave it up in the end, and now they're just crossing their fingers about the playoffs, with games against the Colts and Bengals still to play!

I'm glad I'm not a Broncos fan. Remember when they were 6-0 and the talk of the league? Now they languish at 8-6, barely clinging to a wild card berth, with a whole herd of 7-7 teams nipping at their heels. They could have distanced themselves from the pack with a simple win at home against the dysfunctional Raiders with their quarterback carousel, but they lost. And now they have to go to Philly to play the Eagles!

I'm glad I'm not a 49ers fan. San Francisco jumped out to such a promising start this year under relatively new head coach Mike Singletary. They took early control of their Division, and they looked like world-beaters. Then things began to crumble, and yesterday they were officially knocked out of playoff contention.

I'm glad I'm not a Bears fan. No need for elaboration -- they're just a disaster.

Not All Bad

Well, let's start by looking at the bright side, shall we...?

(1) If you had said at the beginning of the season that we would go into Pittsburgh and lose to the defending champion Steelers by one point on a last-second touchdown pass, I think I would have been pleased and impressed.

(2) They were coming off 10-day rest, they were playing at home, and they needed the game more than we did. Much more.

(3) It was not a Conference loss for us, so it should not cost us in tie-breakers.

(4) We only gave up 1 sack.

(5) We committed fewer penalties (7) than our opponent (10).

(6) We committed no turnovers.

(7) Our special teams didn't allow one of their characteristic back-breaking big runbacks.

(8) Rogers showed the ability to get it done in a tough spot -- in the 4th quarter, on the road, playing from behind. He led the Packers to 22 4th-quarter points. This loss cannot be hung on our offense.

(9) We're not Bronco fans.

(10) We still control our own playoff destiny. If we win both remaining games, we're in. And, probably, just one more win will do the job.

So, that's the good.

We'll cover the bad and the ugly next time!

Three Things I Wonder

Number 1:
I wonder whether we should root for the Bears to win out? If they continue to fall apart, I suspect that there will be some house-cleaning. And as a Packer fan, I'm not sure I want to see Chicago clean house. I like them just the way they are -- and I think the current administration is more likely to hold their jobs for another year if they end hot and finish with a respectable record.

Number 2:
I wonder how the Patriots feel about the Colts and Saints. They famously accomplished a 16-0 regular season record two years ago, but then infamously lost their quest for wire-to-wire perfection in the Super Bowl against the Giants (one of the best Super Bowls I've ever seen). So are they protective of their regular season achievement, eager to see the Colts and Saints falter before getting to 16-0? Or do they cherish the prospect of some other team matching their misery -- i.e., a perfect regular season ruined by a loss in the playoffs?

Number 3:
I wonder if we would fare better against the Vikings in the playoffs. They beat us rather handily in our two regular season meetings, and as things are unfolding right now we stand a fair chance of playing them a third time -- a postseason date in the Metrodome. To have Favre knock the Packers out of the playoffs would almost be as big a story as the first two meetings this year. Conversely, for the Packers to win the playoff match-up would effectively erase all the pain and frustration of the two regular season defeats.

Week Fifteen -- A Look Ahead

Amazingly, the NFL heads into Week 15 with two teams still undefeated -- one AFC and one NFC -- and they both play early.

Once again, the NFL starts its weekend on Thursday night, and this week's match-up is a good one. The Indianapolis Colts take their undefeated record into Jacksonville to play the Jaguars. The Colts have nothing left to play for as they have clinched the top seed in the AFC. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have everything to play for as they cling to the final Wild Card spot in the AFC with three other 7-6 teams right on their heels waiting for them to stumble. It should be a fascinating game. 'Wish I could see it!

Meanwhile, when the Packers kick off on Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh, they'll already have some sense of their playoff position, for the Dallas Cowboys play on Saturday night. And they'll be facing the undefeated Saints in New Orleans. It's another NFL Network game, so I'll be left out in the cold again, but it remains an interesting and important game.

It's an interesting game because the Saints clearly have 16-0 on their minds. Plus, it's a home game for them, so it should be a jazzed crowd and an electric environment. It will be a tough setting and a tough opponent for the Cowboys, who come in as a Wild Card team, but in the midst of their annual December slide. The Saints want the win; the Cowboys need the win.

The game is an important one from our perspective, of course, because Dallas is one of the teams we whom we are competing for playoff position. If the Cowboys lose on Saturday and we win on Sunday, that's it -- we're in the playoffs! There's still an open question about seeding, but a Dallas loss and Green Bay win clinches a spot for us in the postseason (something hard to imagine when we were 4-4 and coming off that terrible loss to Tampa Bay).

With our fifth consecutive victory and our 9-5 records, we don't need to sweat the Falcons or 49ers any more. In fact, we'd like to see the 49ers upset the Eagles in Philly on Sunday afternoon.

Of some surprising interest to us this week is the Sunday Night contest between the Vikings and Panthers. I do not root for Minnesota easily, but they'll be my team on Sunday Night. My interest is in locking the Arizona Cardinals into their playoff spot so that they have nothing left to play for in Week 17 against Green Bay. Accordingly, I don't want them to be eligible for the NFC second seed and a first-round bye.

Meanwhile, to complete the sweep of primetime games this weekend, it turns out that the Monday Nighter is also worth our watching. The Giants travel to Washington in a Divisional grudge match. The Giants are currently on the outside looking in on the NFC playoff scene, while the Redskins have nothing to play for but pride and jobs. Their defense is great, they're playing at home, and anything can happen in the Division. We'll be pulling for the Redskins as the Giants are part of our Wild Card competition. In fact, a Green Bay win would combine with a New York loss or tie to clinch a wild card spot for us (Cowboys notwithstanding). Alternatively, a Green Bay tie would combine with a New York loss to clinch a spot for us, as well. Go Redskins!

The Browns play at Kansas City in this week's version of the Pathetic Bowl (though Cardinals at Lions is stiff competition). Cleveland is riding high after upsetting the Steelers, and Mangini is clinging to his job. Also, this week's Cleveland headlines have been dominated by Mike Holmgren's extended visit with the Browns. Perhaps there's a bit of a revival about to happen there.

Of no particular interest to us -- except as generic football fans -- is the great AFC match-up between the Bengals and the Chargers. Cincy was dealt a tragic blow this week with the sudden death of their young, troubled wide receiver. It's the second death this season within the Bengal family. 'Hard to imagine how they'll cope. In any case, it's a game between two AFC powerhouses with significant playoff implications.

Also in the AFC is the Patriots' trip to Buffalo. One would think that New England would win this game easily, but as someone has observed, they have only managed to win games played in England or New England this season.

Finally, the Packers go to Pittsburgh. When I looked at this game on the schedule at the beginning of the year, I counted it as a loss. When I reviewed our remaining schedule halfway through the season, I still figured it would be a loss. Now I don't know what to think.

With a five-game win streak, the Packers are regarded as one of the hot teams in the league. The Steelers, meanwhile, sport a five-game losing streak, including unthinkable losses to the Raiders and Browns. On paper, the trend lines all point toward a Packer victory.

Still, I am uneasy. I think they're a very proud team. I also think they'll be highly motivated playing at home, even though their playoff chances are slim to none. I'm mor afraid of them than I was of the Bears, and perhaps even the Ravens.

If we protect Rogers -- as we have been more recently -- I think we'll be able to both run and throw on their defense. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, the Pittsburgh running game has been inconsistent at best this year, and Big Ben has been sacked a ton. If I were going to make a completely unemotional evaluation, therefore, I would say that Green Bay wins this one.

Still, I'm afraid.

Bottom line? Saints stay perfect, Cowboys lose, Green Bay wins, and Packers are in!

Monday Night Questions

As the clock winds down on a remarkable Monday Night Football contest between the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers, two big questions emerge:

1) How did these Cardinals beat the Vikings?

2) How did the Packers beat these 49ers?

Tonight's completely unforeseen result serves to make the current acheivement of the Saints and Colts that much more admirable. After all, the way that the Cardinals dominated Minnesota just last week made you think they could beat anyone in the NFL. Meanwhile, the way that the 49ers lost to the Seahawks (who were just plastered by Houston, 34-7) last week made you think that anyone in the NFL could beat them. But tonight it was the 49ers overwhelming the Cardinals, forcing an embarrassing 7 turnovers from last year's NFC Champs.

The Jekyll-and-Hyde behavior of these two NFC West teams offers some perspective on the undefeated seasons being put together by Indy and New Orleans. How hard is it to play well every single week? How hard is it to do what it takes to win in the NFL for thirteen consecutive games?

While I was loosely pulling for the Cardinals tonight, their loss will also serve our purposes. After all, our primary goal is for them to thrive but merely for them to be locked into a playoff spot -- probably either the third or fourth seed now -- with no room for promotion or demotion when Week 17 dawns and the Packers come to town.

Reflections on a Strange Win

This afternoon's defeat of the Bears was such an emotionally confusing game for me that I don't have a coherent stream of thought about it yet. Accordingly, let me share some random observations, instead:

1) First, the emotional confusion. We started so strong -- on both offense and defense -- that it was an exhilirating game at first. The team gradually let the air out of my balloon, however, when they seemed to let up in their intensity. The defense became vanilla. The offense lacked rhythm. Rodgers was missing open men. Next thing I knew, the Bears had the lead and the momentum, and I feared another embarrassing road loss, a la Tampa Bay. Then the interception and ensuing touchdown restored my hope. But then Mason Crosby robbed me of my enthusiasm, replacing it with worry, when he missed the chance to make it a two possession game. Then came Lovie Smith's boneheaded timeout/challenge combination, followed by a reawakened Packer defense. Finally, a couple of kneeldowns by Rodgers completed the victory, but I found myself feeling more relieved than thrilled.

2) Was it the church lady on Saturday Night Live that used to say, "Isn't that special?" That's the tone of voice in which I hear the word "special" when reference is made to our "special teams." This week, at least, we managed not to give up a big momentum-changing kick return. But another missed field goal by Mason Crosby makes me wonder if he's going to cost us a game when we get to the playoffs. It seems that anything over 35 yards for this guy is a crapshoot.

3) I don't think that Rodgers played especially well today. It's nice to know that we can win even when he isn't throwing TDs.

4) I continue to be proud of and impressed by our defense. We held the Bears to just two touchdowns, and the one came after a turnover (Was it a fumble? Was it an interception?) and a short field for Chicago. And the defense continues to be effective sans Aaron Kampman and Al Harris, plus Ryan Pickett was also missing today. That's a sign of a good scheme.

5) I like the mental toughness I saw. On the road, overcoming negative momentum, in spite of a lackluster offensive performance -- that's a good win.

6) In addition to raising our Win-Loss record, this win was also important as it raised our in-Conference record to 7-3. That may be important for us as a tie-breaker in the Wild Card race.

7) Finally, now that we've won this game, I'm more inclined to cheer for the Giants tonight against the Eagles.

Playoff Possibilities

We're entering the 4th quarter of the 2009 NFL season. It's gone by too quickly! And with just 4 games left to go, the Packers are alive-and-well in the playoff chase.

Here is a link to SI's latest breakdown of the NFC and AFC races:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/dom_bonvissuto/12/09/week.14/index.html

Meanwhile, a little statistical data about our own particular situation.

Let us assume that 3 of the 4 NFC Divisions are settled matters. The Vikings will win the North, the Saints will win the South, and the Cardinals will win the West. (In the case of the latter two, not only do they enjoy substantial leads, but their remaining opponents also have a sub-.500 cumulative winning percentage.)

So we'll say that 3 of the 6 NFC playoff spots are taken. The Packers, then, are vying for the remaining 3 spots, and our chief competition comes from the Cowboys (8-4), Eagles (8-4), Giants (7-5), and Falcons (6-6). (It's still plausible that some 5-7 team will make a run and get in, but we won't worry about those guys unless the Packers lose this Sunday.)

The Falcons, who are already two games behind us, face an enormous obstacle this week as they host the 12-0 Saints. Plus, they're hobbled. If they can manage to get the upset win this week, however, then they're suddenly in very good shape, for their remaining opponents (Jets, Bills, and Bucs) have a combined winning percentage of .306!

Of the four other teams in the heat of battle, the Packers have the next easiest remaining schedule with opponents sporting an even .500 winning percentage.

The Giants -- currently one game behind us -- come in next with opponents' winning percentage at .542.

Next come the Eagles -- with whom we are tied, except that they own the tie-breaker -- whose opponents tally a .583 winning percentage.

And then we come to the Cowboys. If the season ended today, they would win the NFC East. On the other hand, if they were competing for the Wild Card rather than the Division, we would edge them out by virtue of the head-t0-head win. Meanwhile, Dallas has been notorious for its poor December performances (they haven't had a winning record in December since 1996!). And they have by far the most difficult remaining schedule of the NFC teams currently in the hunt -- Chargers (9-3), Saints (12-0), Redskins (3-9), and Eagles (8-4) for a .666 winning percentage.

And so the team that entered December at the top of the NFC East is widely expected to miss the playoffs when January rolls around. Remarkable.

And speaking of expectations... I came across a fascinating analysis of why Packer fans have reason for great expectations as we enter the 4th quarter of the season. Enjoy:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/kerry_byrne/12/10/packers/index.html?eref=sihp

Miracle in the Dawg Pound

I don't know who the announcer was for the NFL Network, but he had a great line as the Browns upset the Pittsburgh Steelers: "Never underestimate the power of a rival." How true.

College football fans will recognize the Thursday Night curse. How many superior teams have lost on the road on Thursday night? It's where favorites go to die.

Still, this one is an absolute shocker. Consider:

• The Browns hadn't beaten the Steelers since 2003
• The 2009 Browns have only won 1 game, and that was a 6-3 ugly-fest against the almost equally pathetic Buffalo Bills.
• The Browns' offense was anemic, struggling to put up 13 points at home.
• The Browns have been completely dysfunctional this year, including a "top secret" QB competition, only to have the starter shortly replaced by the back-up. The GM was let go mid-season. And the new coach is widely expected to be let go at the end of his first year.
• The Browns had nothing to play for but draft picks.
• The Steelers are the defending World Champions.
• The Steelers are proud and talented.
• The Steelers HAD to win this game.

It doesn't matter what else happens in the other 15 games this weekend: this game will still stand out as the most surprising game of Week 14.

And, for us as Packer fans, it's a very happy surprise, for now the Steelers are toast. They've lost 5 straight games -- including games against the Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns! The wheels are completely coming off, and it's hard to imagine what the mood is going to be when they return to Heinz Field a week from Sunday. Suffice it to say, though, that the Packers will have a lot to play for, while the Steelers... not so much.

Week Fourteen -- A Look Ahead

Week 14 begins on Thursday Night. We'll start there, and work our way through games of generic interest to NFL fans, followed by some consideration of the games that are of particular significance to us as Packer fans.

First, we observe that the wheels have been coming off in Pittsburgh, as the defending champions have now lost 4 in a row. The latest loss may be the most devastating, for you would surely expect the Steelers to beat the dysfunctional Raiders in Pittsburgh. You have to win your home games. And you have to beat the teams you're supposed to beat. Instead, the Steelers are wallowing at 6-6, and notching another Conference loss didn't help.

But, they get to play the Browns this Thursday Night, which has been good news this season for everyone but the Buffalo Bills.

I wonder what the Vegas odds are on a Cleveland win tonight...? Whatever they are, I'll be pulling for the Browns. I'd like the Steelers to be effectively out of the playoff race when we head to Pittsburgh next week.

Meanwhile, the NFL's two unbeaten teams both face interesting challenges as they seek 13-0.

The Saints travel to Atlanta to face the Falcons. Atlanta really needs this game; it's a must-win situation for them. And, if it weren't for their several key injuries, I would think they could pull it off. As it is, though, I expect New Orleans to keep getting the job done. (And, truthfully, from our perspective as Packer fans, another Falcon loss serves our purposes very well.)

Meanwhile, the undefeated Colts host the Denver Broncos. Many commentators -- including none other than Tony Dungy -- have made a great point of the fact that the Broncos are the team the Colts most dread. In terms of recent history, Denver has been Indy's nemesis. I hadn't realized that myself, for I have been more conscious of the Colts' Conference rivalry with the Patriots. The game is much more important to Denver than it is to Indy. On the other hand, the Colts are playing at home. Personally, I give the nod to Manning & Co.

Also of some interest is the Panthers trip to New England. The match-up itself is not particularly compelling, but it is fascinating to observe what may be happening to the Patriots. There was the amazing loss in Indy. Then the drubbing at the hands of the Saints. And now a failure to close out Miami in the 4th quarter. The Patriots have lost significant 4th-quarter leads in three games this season, they haven't won a game in an opponent's stadium yet in 2009, they have now lost consecutive games for the first time since the middle of the 2006 season, and Brady had consecutive games with multiple interceptions for the first time since 2003!

Frankly, I do expect New England to win their game this week, but still I wonder if we may be watching the last days of Rome.

Finally, the Bengals' trip to Minnesota should be a fascinating match-up. Don Banks (SI.com) took the opportunity of last weekend's loss in Arizona to recall some pretty damning statistics about Favre's late-season swoons. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/don_banks/12/08/patriots/index.html

Personally, I don't think that was the primary issue. I just think the Vikings are not the elite team that all the hype and their inflated record suggest. Accordingly, I think the contest with the Bengals should be very interesting to watch. If Cincy pulls it off, then suddenly instead of vying with the Saints for the best record in the NFC, the Vikings would find themselves in a race with the Cardinals for the other first-round bye.

Well, that covers the waterfront on games of general interest. Now we turn our attention to the games that mean the most to the Packers...

The Eagles and Giants play this weekend, which is a game of mammoth importance for both of them, and also has great significance for us. The problem is: for whom shall we cheer?

Currently, the Eagles are just ahead of us in the wild card race, and so a New York win sets us up the climb in the seedings a bit. On the other hand, the Giants are the team right on our heels and mostly likely to knock us out of our current sixth-and-final spot if we should lose. And so a Philly win would give us more security. Hmmm, what to do?

Elsewhere, while we may be somewhat conflicted when the Eagles face the Giants, there will be no such ambivalence when the Chargers come to Dallas. The Cowboys have become notorious for December collapses, and they were right on schedule last Sunday with their loss to the flailing Giants. Now they face no easy task with the AFC West leading Chargers, and we'll be San Diego fans for sure on Sunday afternoon.

Dallas has the toughest schedule of the 3 NFC East teams competing for the postseason berths, and it's easy to envision them sliding right out of their Division-leader perch into a spot in front of the TV come January.

The Monday Night game in San Francisco is also of some interest to us. A Cardinal win against the 49ers would lock up the Division for them, which speeds them toward my personal goal for them: namely, that they have nothing to play for when we arrive in Arizona on Week 17. (Unless of course they are playing for the second seed in the NFC -- see above.)

Finally, speaking of teams that have nothing to play for, enter the Bears. They started their season with a terrible performance in Lambeau, and as 2009 has unfolded, it turns out that what happened that Sunday Night was no fluke. The Cutler experiment has been a tremendous disappointment. Matt Forte has been a disappointment. The Bears defense has been a disappointment. And so all signs point to a Green Bay victory on Sunday afternoon.

Except for this... Lovie Smith has, from the beginning of his tenure in Chicago, made it his personal mission to beat the Packers. And he's been pretty effective at it. And so, even though the Bears have nothing to play for on paper, they've got something to play for if they have any sense of pride, any appetite for revenge, any intra-Division animus, and any desire to keep Smith as the head coach for 2010.

That said, the Packers are the better team, they're on a roll, and I expect them to get the job done this week, as well.

Ugly Baby

Do you recall that Seinfeld episode in which some annoying friends of the gang insist that they all come over to "see the baby"? And while the TV audience never actually gets to see the baby, it's clear from the reactions of Jerry, Elaine, and Kramer that it's a pretty ugly infant. The parents, of course, don't realize it. To the parents, the baby is always beautiful.

Likewise, Monday Night's game was a beautiful thing to Packers fans. To the rest of the football world, however, it was a notoriously ugly game.

As the commentators repeatedly observed, the Ravens and Packers combined for the second-most penalty yardage in a single game in NFL history. Furthermore, the 2009 Packers are only the second team in NFL history to commit 3 turnovers and accumulate so many penalty yards and yet still win the game. Remarkable.

The Ravens looked like one of the better teams in the NFL back in September, and they looked pretty tough to me when I saw them beat the Steelers last week, as well. Furthermore, they needed Monday's game more than we did. I was very apprehensive, therefore, about the prospect of them coming into Lambeau and beating us on national TV. Instead, however, we dominated them throughout the first half, and we managed to pull away again after letting them get inexcusably close in the second half.

Of course, we come away with much to correct, in spite of the win. The interceptions are an embarassment, and the number of flags on our defensive backfield made me think that Ahmad Carroll was back on the team. Worse still, I believe that our special teams are being coached by Madeline Albright. (She was the Secretary of State, you recall, who declared that it was unfair for the United States to be the only superpower in the world.) Likewise, when the Packers get too far ahead, our special teams seem determined to get the opponent back in the game. Another missed field goal by Mason Crosby and another huge kickoff return following a Green Bay touchdown: those are unsettling patterns as we look toward the postseason.

Still, for all that was ugly about the game on Monday Night, I'll take an ugly "W" over a pretty "L" every time.

What Do We Know Now?

All the games but ours are in the books for Week 13 in the NFL. And what do we know as we prepare for the Packers' kickoff?

We know that the Patriots are not the team they used to be. Losing to Indy on the road in a game that they had dominated largely because of a coaching decision made for interesting talk radio, but it wasn't a red flag. Getting pummeled by the undefeated Saints on the road wasn't necessarily a reason to sound the alarms, either. But now, to lose in such a 4th-quarter-collapse fashion against the Dolphins...?! The evidence is beginning to mount that the Patriots are no longer the cream of the NFL crop.

We know that the Steelers are not the team they were last year. Pittsburgh has now lost four consecutive games. They can point to injuries to key players on offense and defense, which is fine. Still, to give up 21 4th-quarter points at home to the Raiders is a public embarrassment. Pittsburgh is now 3 games behind the Bengals in the AFC North, and they were swept by Cincy, making it effectively a 4-game differential with just 4 games to play! Plus, they're presently the tenth seed in the AFC, which is quite a distance from the 6-team cutoff for a postseason berth.

We know that the Saints are amazing. These guys can do it all. They can dominate a game wire-to-wire, or they can sit out the first half of a game and then come storming back to win in the end. They're ranked 1st in points per game, 1st in yards per game, they have outscored their opponents by a total of 189 points (the next closest team is the Colts at 130 points), and they have playmakers on defense, too. Only the Falcons, Cowboys, Bucs, and Panthers stand now between the former Ain'ts and a perfect regular season.

We know that the Vikings are not as good as their record (or their hype). Minnesota has played a notoriously soft schedule in 2009. (Note that the one team that had beaten them coming into Week 13 is now 6-6.) All the tiresome talk has been about the unbeatable combination they have put together with and for Brett Favre, but the fact is that they won their Division and went to the playoffs last year without Brett Favre. So until they go further than one playoff game, they can't really claim to be vastly improved over 2008. And their performance against good competition on Sunday Night makes one wonder how far into the playofffs these guys actually will go. People were talking about Saints/Vikings as the dream NFC Championship game. Personally, I don't think Minnesota will make it all the way to New Orleans.

We know that the Packers are in decent shape heading into their Week 13 game against the Ravens. I'm still not confident that we'll beat Baltimore tonight, but we still enjoy a happy perch within the Conference. Losses on Sunday by the Falcons and 49ers have aided our position. Plus, the Cowboys, Eagles, and Giants all arguably have tougher remaining schedules than we do.

Week Thirteen -- A Look Ahead

This NFL Week begins again on Thursday Night. The Jets play the Bills, which is of no interest to us as Packer fans, and is barely of interest to us as football fans. The NFL Network did not draw a winner here.

The more important action comes on Sunday, with the most important game (for us, that is) scheduled for Monday Night.

Of modest interest will be the Rams' visit to Chicago. The Bears have become a true disaster, and if they can't defeat the hapless Rams at home, you've got to know that heads are gonna roll. In the end, the Bears will probably win -- but it won't change the fact that they're a disaster, and their fans know it.

Also of league-wide interest is the fate of these two undefeated teams going into December. I heard that the NFL has never had two 11-0 teams in a single season before. Fascinating.

On paper, one would expect the Saints to move rather easily to 12-0, for they face the 3-8 Redskins on Sunday. On the other hand, it's a road game, it follows a huge, emotional victory, and it's against an easily overlooked opponent. This has "trap game" written all over it.

Elsewhere, the undefeated Colts host the resurgent Titans. Tennessee has been an unbelievable story all season long -- first for how unexpectedly bad they were, and now for how a QB changed has turned them completely around and put them on the fringe of the playoff race! They need this game more than Indy does, and the Colts have been winning ugly... no, surviving ugly.

Meanwhile, the teams of greatest interest to Green Bay in the NFC wild card hunt are all playing one another: the Eagles face the Falcons and the Cowboys visit the Giants.

If I felt confident that the Packers were going to win on Monday Night, then I would cheer for the two lower-rung teams, which also happen to be the home teams (Atlanta and New York). Since I expect that Baltimore is going to beat us, however, then I am more willing to cede the upper slots to Philly and Dallas, while feeling eager to keep those that are behind us still behind us.

No matter how you slice it, two of these four teams are going to lose, and that's good news for us. As I watch, though, I will be pulling for the visiting teams to prevail.

Meanwhile, on Sunday Night, I'll be cheering for the Cardinals as they host the 10-1 Minnesota Vikings. This is not mere anti-Viking sentiment on my part: this is self-interest. I want Arizona to wrap up their Division and have little reason for showing up in Week 17 when the Packers come to town.

Even apart from that self-interest, it will be a fascinating game, for it may represent Minnesota's best test to-date. Understand that of all the teams that the Vikings have played thus far, the opponent with the best W-L record is -- wait for it -- the Green Bay Packers! Other than the Packers, the best record of the victories the Vikings have notched belongs to the 6-5 Ravens, and their one loss came to the 6-5 Steelers.

I submit that the Vikings' 10-1 record is not as close to the Saints' 11-0 record as it appears on paper. These next two weeks -- at Arizona and home against the Bengals -- will be very revealing about just how good the 10-1 Vikings really are.

In any case, I'm rooting for the Cardinals.

Finally, Monday Night Football comes to Lambeau. And so do the Baltimore Ravens. They have the 4th ranked defense in the NFL. Their record is only one game poorer than ours, but they come out of a much tougher Division. Under their "Win" column they have victories over the Chargers, Broncos, and Steelers. Whom have we beaten? I'm afraid that the Ravens are the better team, and I'm afraid they're going to show it on Monday Night. My only reasons for hope are these: (1) We're coming off the long break, while they're coming off a big emotional win against a Division foe. (2) We're playing at home.

Bottom line? Packers lose, Eagles win, Giants win, Vikings get exposed, and one of the two undefeated teams finally falls.

More Playoff Projections

Dom Bonvissuto (SI.com) has done a game-by-game, team-by-team analysis of the playoff races in the AFC and NFC. Interesting stuff. Here is the link to his page of NFC projections:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/dom_bonvissuto/12/02/week.13/1.html

Contrary to my own estimates, he figures that we will beat the Ravens and the Steelers. That seems optimistic to me. Meanwhile, he anticipates losses to the Bears and Cardinals. And, of course, he picks Green Bay to beat the Seahawks in Lambeau. In the end, he figures that the Packers will finish 10-6 and grab the fifth seed in the NFC playoffs.

If the regular season ended today, we'd have the sixth seed.

My primary goal, of course, is simply to make the cut, at all. Then, to whatever extent beggars can be choosers, I would like (obviously) to win our first-round playoff game, and to be seeded in such a way as to face the Vikings in the second round.

Why am I eager for the Metrodome? Well, first, because the alternative is playing the Saints in the second round. And, second, because I would love to be the team that knocks the cocky Vikings out of the playoffs. And while I think we would lose to this Minnesota team 5 out of 6 times we played them, perhaps the playoff match-up might be that one exception game.

But that's all quite a way down the road. For now, SI is calling for us to beat the visiting Ravens.

Changing of the Guard

As the college football season nears its final week before the bowls begin, we observe a surprising preponderance of undefeated teams. That number will be reduced by at least one when Florida and Alabama face off this week, and it may be that someone else (e.g., Cincy?) may fall. But, still, we will go into the bowl-selection process with a superabundance of undefeated teams.

The intriguing detail is that it's not the USC, Ohio State, Oklahoma types that are cluttering up the top of the polls. Instead, you've got teams like Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State. And the natural question becomes: Just how good are those teams, really?

It's all very nice that they have managed to play their particular schedules without losing. But what would happen if they had to play a team like Florida? Could they keep up with Texas? Would they be run off the field by USC?

The NFL doesn't have quite the same "major conference, small conference" dynamics, of course, but there are still questions that surround some teams -- teams that amass great records, yet still haven't proven themselves.

That changed for one team last night.

The New Orleans Saints looked so good on paper. They were racking up gaudy stats on offense, and they had compiled a great undefeated record. But did we take them seriously? Just because they had the best record in the league, did we really believe that they were the best team in the league?

How many times did the commentators say last night that the New England Patriots were the gold standard? So last night's game was the true test: now we would find out if the Saints were for real.

Oh my!

What a complete performance -- and total dismantling -- last night's game was. The Saints defense stymied the Patriots offense, and the Saints offense picked apart the New England defense. It was unbelievable, really. For the Colts and Patriots to play one of their closely-fought, could-have-gone-either-way annual battles wasn't surprising. And for the Patriots to lose that game (albeit in a controversial way) was no humiliation. But this?

The Saints proved themselves to be the better team on the field last night. And while it might be a toss-up if the Patriots and Colts played again next Sunday, you get the feeling that if the Patriots and Saints had a re-match, New Orleans would win again. They looked great.

And so one wonders just what happened last night. Just a regular season game? Perhaps. But I wonder if something larger took place. I wonder if the 7-4 Patriots are no longer the cream of the NFL crop. And I wonder if -- for coaching, for management, for quarterbacking, and for defense -- the center of the NFL universe has moved south to New Orleans.

Of course, the Patriots earned their reputation over the long haul, including multiple Super Bowls. In that sense, the Saints haven't won anything yet. But they have proven to my satisfaction that they are, at least, the best team in the 2009 NFL.