Lost Weekend

Fortunately the Packers went into Week 15 in pretty good shape, otherwise the weekend would have been disastrous for us.

We are basically in a four-teams-for-two-spaces wild card race with the NFC East. The Eagles (10-4), the Cowboys (9-5), and the Giants (8-6) are all competing with each other for their Division title and with us (9-5) for the two NFC wild card slots. Unhappily, all three of those teams won this weekend, while Green Bay lost. Ugh.

The Eagles beat the visiting 49ers. That didn't surprise me. The Giants absolutely manhandled the Redskins in Washington, which did surprise me. And the Cowboys upset the previously undefeated Saints in New Orleans, which shocked me.

Happily, Green Bay still controls its own destiny. If we beat the Seahawks at home and the Cardinals on the road, we'll be in, no matter what anyone else does. Also happily, we own tie-breakers against the Cowboys and Eagles, should we end in a tie with either of them. The Giants, however, are the team we need to fear, for they have some tie-breaking edge over us.

Obviously the most simple formula for us to follow is to root against all three of these teams. And since both a Division title and the two wild card berths are available, only one of the four vying teams will get left out. So we're still in good shape.

I think it's safe to assume that we'll beat Seattle this Sunday in Green Bay. The next week in Arizona, however, is not such a sure thing. Here, then, is our nightmare scenario:

Green Bay beats Seattle but loses to Arizona and ends at 10-6.

The Cowboys beat the Redskins on the road and the Eagles at home, ending at 11-5.

The Eagles beat the visiting Broncos but lose in Dallas, ending at 11-5.

The Giants beat the hapless Redskins in New York and then beat the nothing-to-play-for Vikings in Minnesota, ending at 10-6.

That particular concoction would leave the Packers at home when the playoffs start. That's the scenario we're aiming to avoid -- first, by winning both our games; and, second, by cheering for each of those three NFC East teams to lose this weekend.