The Sincerest Form of Flattery

They say that the NFL is an imitation league.  When the rest of the teams see what works -- what wins a championship -- they all try to pick it up and duplicate it.

So you can expect the NFL shortly to be filled with head coaches named Mike, mobile quarterbacks who are solid passers but able to extend plays with their feet, and 3-4 defenses.

Well, perhaps the first of those similarities between the NFC Champion Packers and the AFC Champion Steelers will not breed much imitation.  The other two details of these eerily similar squads, however, may become the aspirations of every other team in the league. 

“They've got a really awesome defense,” Don Banks quotes Steeler safety Troy Polamalu as saying.  “The fact is you could switch half our players with half their players and we could both run the exact same defense. I guarantee you that we could swap safeties and run the exact same defense. You could definitely swap anyone on our defense and still play.”

Banks continues:

With Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers and Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau being friends, former co-Pittsburgh coaches in the early '90s and proponents of the same 3-4 scheme, Polamalu is not exaggerating. The soft-spoken eighth-year veteran said while he wouldn't trade the Steelers' set of starting linebackers for anyone else's, facing Green Bay is a little like playing an opponent that's a mirror image of the Steelers.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/don_banks/01/28/troy-polamalu/index.html#ixzz1CcxnXPuz

The nearly identical defenses is perhaps the greatest wild card in this year’s Super Bowl.  The Steelers and Packers play the same scheme, boast the same kinds of explosive playmakers on that side of the ball, and were ranked #1 and #2 in points allowed this season, respectively.  But the mere fact that they are both great defenses is not the issue -- it is the degree to which both offenses begin with such a familiarity advantage. 

What Rodgers and Roethlisberger will encounter on the field next Sunday will look just like what they see every week in practice.  And each team’s defensive coaching staff will be able to tell the offensive guys everything they could want to know about what they’ll be facing. 

Ironically, neither Super Bowl contender is noted for its special teams play.  That doesn’t mean, of course, that some blocked punt, missed field goal, or return for a touchdown won’t prove to be the deciding factor -- it’s just not the focus of any of the pregame analysis.  Instead, all the talk is about two stingy and similar defenses, and two mobile quarterbacks who are hard to defend. 

The chief difference between the two teams seems to be differing areas of offensive prowess -- the Steelers are a great running team, while the Packers boast an explosive passing offense.  And after the final gun on Sunday, then the rest of the teams around the league will know which one they should try to be.

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Pittsburgh Steelers,Super Bowl,Don Banks,Troy Polamalu,Dick LeBeau,Dom Capers,Aaron Rodgers,Ben Roethlisberger

The Horse Latitudes

With all due respect to this evening’s Pro Bowl, this Sunday afternoon represents what all Sunday afternoons will look like far too soon. 

I sat with remote in hand, like an amputee with phantom pains from a limb no longer there, flipping from channel to channel but finding no football.  I found college basketball.  I’ll care about that in about six weeks.  I also found NBA basketball.  I suppose I may care about that -- a very little bit -- in perhaps four months.  But for now I want football, and I find that there is no football to watch. 

And so the withdrawal begins.

Perhaps I shall record next Sunday’s Super Bowl.  And if we win, I’ll just watch that game again and again each Sunday afternoon until the games begin in earnest again next fall.

If they begin again next fall, that is. The prospect of a lockout makes the culmination of the season next week all the more unnerving. 

In the meantime, I am reminded again of what a superior sport football is.  The basketball on TV right now just can’t compare.  Likewise the nascent baseball season that will become the subject of much sports writing and talk once the Super Bowl is past.  But the sports themselves -- the strength of the action, the sophistication of the games, the complexity of strategy, the variety of skills -- are so inferior to the National Football League.  I would rather see a 45-31 football game than the frenetic scoring of 110-98 NBA game.  And I would rather see a 7-3 defensive struggle on the football field than a 1-0 pitcher’s duel. 

No other sport boasts the kind of playbook that a football team employs.  No other team spends hours in film study like a football team does.  And no other major sport requires an entire week in between games in order to recuperate physically and prepare intellectually. 

It’s a great sport.  And on this Sunday afternoon, I miss it.

Technorati Tags: NFL,MLB,NBA,NCAA basketball,Pro Bowl,Super Bowl

Loser’s Last Resort

Wisconsin was President Obama’s first stop following his Tuesday night State of the Union address.  That was a courageous itinerary given his very public support of the Bears in their game against the Packers so few days ago.

Evidently, surrounded by Packer fans and immersed in Packer paraphernalia, the President wished our team ‘good luck’ in the Super Bowl, but also promised revenge of the Bears next season.

Pretty weak.  While one team is driving full-speed-ahead to the Super Bowl, does it check the rear view mirror to see some of its road kill shaking an angry fist?  We are focused on the Steelers in a week-and-a-half; who really cares about the Bears in nine months?

Furthermore, just how realistic are the Bears’ hopes for next season, anyway?  Personally, I have a hunch that Chicago’s experience from 2010 to 2011 will resemble the Vikings’ experience going from 2009 to 2010 -- namely, you already had your year when everything went right, and you blew it in the Conference Championship game.  Don’t expect to get back there next year.

I still don’t believe the Bears were as good as their record, and so I am not nearly so afraid of them in 2011 as I am, say, the Lions.  I believe Detroit and Green Bay are the teams will improving prospects for 2011.  I am not yet bullish on the Vikings, and I am definitely bearish on the Bears.

Technorati Tags: President Obama,Green Bay Packers,Super Bowl,Chicago Bears,NFC North,Minnesota Vikings,Detroit Lions

What Happens in Vegas

As soon as a Super Bowl match-up is set, the betting begins. 

Actually, I suppose the betting begins long before that, inasmuch as people take odds before the season even starts on each team’s chances of making and winning it.

In any case, the early action favored the Packers, as SI.com reported that Vegas installed the Packers as early favorites for Super Bowl XLV. At this moment, we’re favored by 2.5 points.

Frankly, I’m a little surprised.  The Steelers are the #2 seed in the AFC, while the Packers come in as the #6 seed from the NFC.  Furthermore, Pittsburgh is the one team with arguably a better defense than Green Bay.  Plus, they have a ton of playoff and Super Bowl experience on their roster, while the Packers are pretty thin in that department.  And, on top of all that, we played head-to-head last season, and the Steelers won.

The “experience factor” is what prompts Don Banks, himself a Wisconsin resident these days, to pick the Steelers.  He has been bullish on the Packers this season, and so his pick concerns me.

I respect Banks, to be sure.  On the other hand, the odds-makers were right about the Packers going into Chicago, and so I’m hopeful that they’re right about us going into Dallas.

And speaking of going into Dallas… I think the venue actually works in our favor.  It’s hard to imagine beating Pittsburgh in Heinz Field.  And I even wonder about our beating them in Lambeau in January.  But Rodgers clearly prefers the kind of fast track and perfect climate that Jerry Jones’ shrine will provide.  And I believe that our offense and defense are built for speed, too. 

In a sense, the Super Bowl promises to be the most favorable all-around environment that the Packers have played in for many weeks.  Chicago was obviously a mess, as well as being an away game.  We performed great in Atlanta’s dome, but it was before a hostile crowd.  Philly was not much better than Chicago.  And the last three games of the season were played in Green Bay and Foxboro in December.

Dallas is not a home game, of course, but we’ll have a lot more Packer fans there than we had in Atlanta, Philly, or Chicago, and the playing surface and environment will be well-suited to our explosiveness on both sides of the ball. 

I’m hopeful, therefore, that what’s happening in Vegas after the Conference Championships will happen in Dallas in the Super Bowl!

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Pittsburgh Steelers,Super Bowl predictions,Aaron Rodgers,Don Banks

Simple Pleasures

Risk and reward go together like yin and yang.  Low risk generally has low potential for reward.  Conversely, high risk typically carries with it the potential for tremendous reward.

For those of us who live in southeast Wisconsin, Sunday’s much-anticipated match-up between the Bears and Packers was a real high risk-reward prospect.  Every Packer fan had his heart on the line, to be sure, but for those of us who do our cheering within a hundred miles of Chicago, it was an especially tense Sunday.

Just as our friends along the northwestern edge of the state are surrounded by purple, here in the southeast, we have a lot of Bear fans mixed in among us.  And, as you might guess, they are pretty annoying when Chicago does well, and unbearable when they beat the Packers. 

First, Lovie Smith arrived in Chicago and declared that the first goal was the beat the Packers, and then he promptly achieved it.  I like Smith a lot, but it exacerbated the naturally obnoxious tendencies of Bear fans.  And then they traded for Jay Cutler a few years ago, and all “da Bears” fans acted like they had found the missing link.  Now they were a Super Bowl team!  Now they had the best QB in the NFC North! 

Ha! 

The high risk of living so near to Chicago and cheering for the Packers is that a loss on Sunday would have been painful twice over: the sting of the loss itself followed by the salt-in-the-wound pain of having to hear about it. 

The high reward, meanwhile, is that we are near enough to eavesdrop on Chicago angst.  And, my, are they angst-ful down there!

Of course, on the day after, it turns out that everyone can listen to the angst because of the great national furor over Jay Cutler’s performance -- or non-performance -- on Sunday.  The news, and the talk surrounding it, are ubiquitous.  Here is one particularly thorough link, but there are a hundred other good candidates out there. 

Of course, there are other, simpler, less diabolical pleasures for Packer fans these days. 

For example, the Packer interviews.  We’re seeing and hearing a lot of our players interviewed now, with many, many more interviews to come in the days ahead.  And every time I hear or see one, I am proud.  These are good guys, you know?  Good attitudes, likeable, funny.  It’s a team we can be pretty proud of off the field, as well as on the field.

Also, for those of us who love football, we hate to see the season come to an end.  And for 30 teams now, it has come to an end.  But not for us.  We get to keep enjoying it for two more weeks. Moreover, we get to enjoy seeing our team in the national spotlight for two more weeks.

Also, there is the sweet taste of satisfaction.  The expectations were so high for this team coming into the season, but right from the start we got hit hard by injuries.  We struggled.  We were 3-3 at one point.  Rodgers got hurt.  We lost to the Lions.  The Lions!  The Bears just kept winning, and as the Division grew out of reach, we had to settle for Wild Card hopes.  Finally, at the very end, we clinched the sixth seed -- bottom rung of the NFC playoff ladder.  And now, all those other teams -- the Vikings, Lions, and Bears; the Saints and Falcons; the Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles -- they are all looking up at us now, the 2010 NFC Champions.  What’s more, we lost to 6 teams during the regular season, and at this moment every one of those teams has cleaned out their lockers, while the Packers keep on playing.  Very satisfying, indeed.

And, finally, there is the simple pleasure of hope.  Hope for Super Bowl Sunday, of course.  And hope, too, for the season yet to come, when the NFC Champs will likely be even better!

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Chicago Bears,Jay Cutler,NFL Playoffs,NFC North

Never in Doubt

In the days and hours leading up to the game, I had my doubts.

I didn’t doubt that we were the better team, mind you.  I did have doubts, though, about the certainty of our victory.  Special teams, the Bears playing at home, Soldier Field’s notorious turf, Chicago’s ferocious defense, etc.  I didn’t really think that we would lose, but I was apprehensive.

Then the game began.  And once both teams began to play, the game was never in doubt. 

Well, at least not much.

The Packers received the opening kick and moved smartly down the field in a statement drive to take a 7-0 lead.  It was a masterpiece drive that belied the reputation of the Bears defense. 

The offense showed its prowess again with another beautiful drive in the second quarter.  It looked like we couldn’t be stopped.

It turned out that we could be stopped, though.  The Bears defense did what they needed to do for the final two-thirds of the game, and the Packer offense was largely frustrated.

But offense is only one phase of the game.

There is also defense, and my what a defensive effort!  They held the Bears to 1 of 13 on 3rd down, a mere 83 yards rushing, registered 2 sacks, and made 3 interceptions!  In his postgame interview, the ever-classy Rodgers was quick to attribute this victory to the defense.

And then, beyond offense and defense, there is the third phase -- the one that made Packer fans most nervous -- special teams.  But Masthay came through with excellent punting, and the coverage team swallowed up Hester.  I think I heard 16 yards on 3 punt returns for Mr. Explosive.  Beautiful work! 

I’ll grant you that there were moments of concern: when the 3rd-string QB engineered that early 4th-quarter touchdown drive, and then again with the 81-second drive with less than 5 minutes to go.  But, come on:  Did we really think that Caleb Hanie was going to beat these Packers?  No!  After beating Michael Vick and Matt Ryan, we were not going to lost to Caleb Hanie.

Hanie played commendably under the circumstances.  His capable performance on the big stage probably makes him good trade bait. But this game belonged to the Packers, beginning to end.

Now we head to Dallas.  ‘More about that -- and our final opponent -- tomorrow.

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Chicago Bears,Aaron Rodgers,Caleb Henie,NFL Playoffs,Super Bowl

And May the Best Man Win

On the verge of the big game, Don Banks has written a great and winsome piece about the current Green Bay Packers, along with healthy doses of insight from Lombardi biography David Maraniss. The piece makes me like these guys even more, respect McCarthy a bit more, and makes me feel even more hopeful about our chances to go all the way this year.

As I indicated in my previous post, the broad consensus seems to be that the Packers will win on Sunday in Chicago.  And why?  Well, because most observers seem to believe that we are the better team.

Honestly, I believe that’s true.  And to make the point, consider this… 

Can you imagine a game on Sunday in which the Packers blow out the Bears -- run away with the victory, much the same way we did against the Giants or Falcons?  I can. 

Conversely, can you imagine a game on Sunday in which the Bears blow out the Packers -- dominate us, score at will on us, and beat us by double-digits?  I can’t.  No one has done that to us anytime this season, including the 14-2 Patriots in New England with Rodgers on our bench!

Or, look at it this way… Both the Packers and Bears won convincingly last weekend to make it to this game.  The Packers beat the 13-3 Falcons in Atlanta.  The Bears beat the 7-9 Seahawks in Chicago.  And our win was, frankly, a more dominant win.  

So I honestly do believe that the Packers are the better team.

I don’t believe, however, that the Seahawks were a better team than the Saints.  But the Seahawks won. 

And I still don’t really believe that the Jets are a better team than the Patriots.  But the Jets won. 

And so, as we head into Sunday’s Conference Championship Game, I say, “May the best team win…  please!”

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Chicago Bears,Don Banks,David Marannis,NFL Playoffs

Electoral Votes

As the hours drag on until kickoff, I need some way to satisfy my impatience to see this game played.  The closest I can come, of course, is to explore how others think the game will turn out.

I was surprised by this headline on NFL.com:  “A longtime NFC North scout tells Jason La Canfora why he believes Chicago will beat Green Bay.”  So I read the piece, only to discover that the scout also told La Canfora why he believes the Packers will beat the Bears.  The title, of course, betrays the fact that more people are saying that the Packers are going to win. And, in the end, La Confora himself picks the Pack in a close one.

Peter King of SI.com is also picking the Packers to barely edge out the Bears.  He is predicting a mere one point victory, while in the AFC game he expects a more comfortable margin of victory for the Steelers over the Jets. 

King’s Sports Illustrated colleague, Jim Trotter, is also picking Green Bay to win a low-scoring affair.  While King’s treatment of the game is just a thumbnail, Trotter makes a more extended and encouraging argument for a Packer victory.

And, speaking of extended and encouraging arguments, get a load of this piece by Kerry Byrne.  Boy, does he ever make an effective case for a Green Bay win!  Usually, my palms don’t get clammy until after kickoff, yet with the magnitude of this Sunday’s game, I have felt the anxiety set in several times already this week.  Byrne’s article gives me great comfort, however. 

The guys at Countdown Daily on ESPN both expect a Green Bay win.  And, with a lot of variables considered and calculated, in 10,000 simulations, their crazy AccuScore method says that the Packers win 61% of the time.

Damon Hack also eloquently weighs in on why and how the Packers will win.  His case sounds very convincing (although he does manage to say with a straight face that we’re playing well on special teams right now… hmmmm).

On the other hand, President Obama, playing the shameless homer, predicts a Chicago win, 20-17.  Fortunately, the NFL doesn’t count votes the way they do in Chicago.

Unfortunately, however, the NFL doesn’t count votes, at all.  If it did, then CNN and FOX would both be calling the game for the Packers based on all the aforementioned polling data.  But, alas, the game is played on the field, and all of these high hopes and expectations don’t contribute a single point to the scoreboard. 

Still, the polls are all I’ve got until kickoff!

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Chicago Bears,NFL Playoffs,NFL predictions

Feelings, Nothing More Than Feelings

As I kid growing up, I was a football and basketball guy.  That’s what I mostly watched.  That’s what I mostly played.

When I started dating the girl who became my wife, however, my sports universe expanded.  Her family was very much a golf and tennis family.  Those are the sports that their family played together on vacation.  And so, once I started to be included in her family’s vacation plans, I started having to play tennis and golf.

The only golf and tennis I had played was putt-putt and ping pong.  I was ill-equipped, therefore, to jump in and compete with her and her family members.

How I fared is a separate story.  For now, my point is this: I quickly discovered an important difference between my customary sports and these new experiences.  In the sports world that I came from -- the world of football and basketball -- a little anger did you some good.  The strong emotion strengthened your game. 

In golf and tennis, however, the experience was completely different.  Feeling angry made me play worse.  And it became a vicious circle, as a bad shot would make me angry, and my anger would produce still worse shots.  Awful!

But this weekend’s big event is a football game, and football is a game that feeds on strong emotions.  I don’t know how often emotion beats better talent or superior coaching.  I do suspect, however, that, when all else is equal, the more emotional team is likely to prevail.

We will consider in a day or two the extent to which “all else is equal” between these two teams.  For now, however, our concern is the emotional advantage.

The Bears have felt disrespected all year.  No one has been taking them seriously.  And now, as the highest remaining seed in the NFC, Division winners, and hosts of the Conference Championship Game, they find themselves underdogs against their own bitter Division rival, the Green Bay Packers.  I’m guessing that that makes them angry.  And that’s not good for us.

Peter King tried to even the emotional score for us just a bit.  He has given out his end-of-season awards and honors, and luckily for us he has snubbed a couple of Packers in favor of a couple of Bears.  He picked Julius Peppers ahead of Clay Matthews for Defensive Player of the Year, and he put Chris Harris ahead of Nick Collins in the Free Safety position on his All-Pro Team. 

I don’t think that will be quite enough fuel for our fire to combat the disrespect that the Bears are feeling.  Also, the Bears are fortunate not to have a starting quarterback who beat out Aaron Rodgers for a spot in the Pro Bowl roster.   

I’m sure that the Packers are feeling pretty good in the wake of their enormous win in Atlanta.  I’m not sure if I want them to feel pretty good, though.  I think I’d rather have them feeling angry. 

Unless, of course, they get to play the Bears in golf or tennis on Sunday. 

Technorati Tags: NFL Playoffs,Green Bay Packers,Chicago Bears,Aaron Rodgers,Clay Matthews,Julius Peppers,Nick Collins,Chris Harris,golf,tennis

Mr. Rodgers

SI.com has a great article about Aaron Rodgers with respect to his infamous fall in the 2005 draft. 

I don’t think that any of us who watched that first round were watching Rodgers with any personal interest (at least not in our capacity as Packer fans).  We were, at that time, comfortably situated with Iron Man Favre at the helm, unquestionably one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and our future with him seemed long and bright.  We had an assortment of team needs, but the QB position wasn’t among them.  Certainly not in the first round!

It was only as a generic sports and human interest story, therefore, that we watched with pity as this poor kid from California got passed over by team after team.  After a while, it had the awkward look of the last kid picked for a playground kickball game.  Remember how they moved him, in a sort of television version of euthanasia, to a different room, where his humiliation would ostensibly be lessened?

The SI.com article focuses especially on one particular team that passed him up.  The team that he wanted to play for, the team that was in his backyard, the team that seemed most likely to take him, and ironically the team that had an offensive coordinator named Mike McCarthy -- the San Francisco 49ers.  In the wake of Rodgers’ epic playoff performance on Saturday night, the author tracks the divergent paths of Rodgers and the 49ers since 2005 to where each one is at today.

It’s good reading -- at least in Wisconsin!

Meanwhile, Mike & Mike reported an encouraging statistic this morning…   Addressing the concern that Rodgers might be comparatively ineffectual in the cold and muck of Soldier Field, they reported that, in cold-weather games, Rodgers has thrown 25 TDs with only 5 INTs, with an average of 303 yards per game, and over a 100 quarterback rating. 

So not much to worry about, it seems, from the elements.  Much more to worry about, however, from the Bears defense.  ‘More about that as the big day approaches.

Technorati Tags: Aaron Rodgers,Green Bay Packers,San Francisco 49ers,Mike McCarthy,SI.com,NFL Playoffs,Chicago Bears

Better Than Ticker Tape

We all have our ways of celebrating. 

Personally, I’m not a drinker, and so that separates me from a great many of my fellow Wisconsin sports fans when it comes to having a good time -- before, during, or after the game. 

For me, geeky as it may sound, one of the most satisfying ways to celebrate a victory in sports is to read the coverage of it.  And, my, is the coverage of Saturday night’s win in Atlanta satisfying to read!

I direct your attention, for example, to Tim Layden of Sports Illustrated, who has written a really marvelous piece about Aaron Rodgers -- both his virtuoso performance against the Falcons and, more generally, the top-tier quarterback he has become. 

Even the AP’s simple recap of the game sings Rodgers’ praises:

He completed 31 of 36 passes and put up more yards than Brett Favre - the guy he replaced in Green Bay - ever threw for in a playoff game. After knocking off Michael Vick and the Eagles in Philadelphia, then dominating Matt Ryan and the Falcons in Atlanta, Rodgers is creating his own legacy in Titletown USA.

Brett who?

Peter King also joins the chorus:

What makes Green Bay's performance in Atlanta more impressive is that the Falcons were rested, coming off a bye, enjoying the fruits of being the top seed in the NFC. Green Bay played the late game in Philly last Sunday, traveled home, then had a short week to prepare for a Saturday game against a fast team with a secondary growing in star power and confidence.

So what does Aaron Rodgers do? Completes 86 percent of his throws for 366 yards, with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He threw from the pocket, threw on the run, threw across his body, threw under duress (but not much), threw deep and threw short. Five incompletions. 48 points. No Green Bay quarterback has had a better playoff game. The franchise is 90 years old and -- this just in -- it's had some decent quarterbacks.

I find this amazing: Rodgers threw 28 passes Saturday to his top four wideouts on the team -- Greg Jennings, Driver, Jordy Nelson and James Jones. He completed 26, for 331 yards. Each of the four produced at least 75 receiving yards. That is incredible balance.

Later in his MMQB column, King also waxes on about Rodgers’ place in Packer lore:

Bart Starr and Brett Favre have played for the Packers, in case you missed it. And on Saturday, Rodgers had a better postseason game than either of them ever had: 31 of 36 (.861), 366 yards, three touchdowns, no picks, 136.8 rating. It's amazing that a sixth seed can embarrass a first seed, but that's what the Packers did to Atlanta ... and they did it because Rodgers might well have been as dominant as any quarterback has ever been in a playoff game. The Packers' two highest-scoring offensive games in history have been 45 points (last year against Arizona) and 48 (Saturday night). Rodgers quarterbacked both of them. He's pretty good.

It's obviously premature to make any long-term judgments about how great a career Aaron Rodgers will have. But maybe one way to look at how well he hit the ground running in his first three seasons as a starter is how those three stack up against the three best seasons in succession by the two greatest quarterbacks in club history, Bart Starr and Brett Favre. Not the first years for either of the Packers greats; the best three years in a row.

 

Quarterback	Rodgers	Starr	Favre
Years	2008-2010	1964-1966	1995-1997
W-L-T	27-20	29-10-2	37-11
Playoffs	2	2	3
Pct.	.644	.593	.608
Yards	12,723	6,456	12,179
TDs	86	45	112
INTs	31	16	42
Yds/Att	7.9	8.4	7.5
Rating	99.4	97.0	96.1

 

Interesting to note that Rodgers, in his first three years, threw for more yards than Favre did in the run he had of three straight MVP seasons, 1995-97.

King also lists the Packers atop his "Fine Fifteen" for the week, ahead of each of the other remaining three teams.  (The Bears, ironically, are ranked fifth, even though there are just four teams left in the playoffs.  King still ranks the defeated Patriots ahead of Chicago.) 

In a video interview, Don Banks also ranks the Packers as the best team of the NFL’s ‘Final Four.’

The Packers own website, of course, naturally offers a glowing account of the game in Atlanta.  The Chippewa Herald also has a great write-up. 

Finally, the tremendous performance on Saturday has naturally given rise to many bold predictions about where the Packers go from here.  Jeffri Chadiha of ESPN.com says that we can’t be stopped.  And get a load of the nation’s impression of how good the Packers are!  Except for a few obviously parochial states, the majority opinion is that Green Bay will win the Super Bowl.

That’s all good reading and watching -- and it’s just a sliver of what’s out there!  Of course, the celebrating only lasts about a day for the team.  But you and I might as well keep enjoying the ticker tape parade of Packer praise for the whole week until Sunday in Chicago. 

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Atlanta Falcons,Chicago Bears,NFL Playoffs,Aaron Rodgers

Savannah Couldn’t Have Been Any Better

The anciently wise Mammy in Gone with the Wind famously warned against Scarlett’s planned journey to Atlanta.  “Savannah would be better for ya,” she insisted. “You’d just get in trouble in Atlanta!”

Mammy may have been right about Scarlett, but no place could possibly have been better for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers than Atlanta was in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. 

Now we have had two playoff weekends with four games each weekend.  And the story for me personally has been exactly the same both times.  I have lost every game -- except the most important one! -- each weekend.

At the beginning of the playoffs, I ranked the 12 teams in order of my preference, 1-12.  The Packers, of course, were #1, with no truly close second.  At spot #8 is where I indicated that I felt I was shifting from teams I more or less liked to teams that I disliked.  And now, lo and behold, see what I am left with! 

The only team left that I like is the team that I love.  Every other remaining team falls below that line -- #8 was the Jets, #11 was the Bears, and #12 was the Steelers.  It is possible that the Super Bowl in Dallas will be a match-up of the Bears and Steelers which, for me, would be completely unwatchable. 

All the other playoff disappointments aside, though, I am giddy this weekend from the Packers’ astonishing performance in Atlanta on Saturday night.  It was a genuine masterpiece by Aaron Rodgers, who has evidently set some record for a quarterback’s first three playoff games (“he has become the first quarterback in NFL history to throw 10 touchdown passes in his first three playoff games,” according to SI.com’s Tim Layden;  Daryle Lamonica, Dan Marino and Jeff George all had thrown nine).

Meanwhile, ironically, all of the quarterbacks chosen ahead of Rodgers to represent the NFC in the Pro Bowl will now be available to play that game.  They’ve got no other games play.  Drew Brees, Michael Vick, and Matt Ryan have all been knocked out of the playoffs -- and two of them have been knocked out by Aaron Rodgers himself (as well as Tramon Williams, who is also not going to the Pro Bowl!).

Everything about this season has been vindication. 

Most recently, as indicated above, Rodgers and Williams have been vindicated in terms of their Pro Bowl snub. 

Also, by beating the Falcons (who were the first opposing team to come into Lambeau and win a playoff game there) and Vick (who was the QB who did it) and the Eagles (4th and 26), the Packers exorcised some past postseason demons. 

Furthermore, with his first playoff win last weekend followed by his absolutely stellar performance this weekend, Rodgers has been vindicated against the charge that he couldn’t be counted among the elite quarterbacks until he had won in the playoffs. 

Moreover, by beating Brett Favre and the Vikings twice this season, Rodgers and the rest of the team put that ghost to bed. 

And, with all that this team has accomplished, in spite of a third of their original starters being on IR, we would have to say that Ted Thompson has also been vindicated, for he truly has put together a deeply talented team. 

The only remaining vindication to be achieved, of course, is this coming Sunday against the Bears.  We shouldn’t have lost that first game in Chicago back in Week 3, and we shouldn’t have lost the Division to those overachieving yokels.  And so 2:00 p.m. next Sunday is payback time. 

Evidently, the mercenary Bears fans were rooting for the Packers on Saturday night -- preferring, I suppose, to host the NFC Champion-ship Game than to travel to Atlanta.  Fair enough.  But if I’m a Bears fan today, after watching that Packer performance on Saturday night, I’m thinking that Atlanta might be better for ya…

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Atlanta Falcons,Chicago Bears,Brett Favre,Minnesota Vikings,Drew Brees,Michael Vick,Matt Ryan,Philadelphia Eagles,NFL Playoffs,Gone With The Wind

There Must Be a Reason

I have been hearing a lot of love for the Packers going into tonight’s battle with the Falcons.  Really, considering that it’s a #6 seed facing a #1 seed, and considering Atlanta’s remarkable winning percentage at home, it’s rather surprising how many folks are picking the Pack.

So I’m thinking to myself, why are we so hopeful about Green Bay winning this game?  After all, there must be a reason why Atlanta is the #1 seed in the NFC.

In pondering this, I turned my attention to the #1 seed in the AFC: the New England Patriots.  On their way to their gaudy 14-2 record, they managed wins over the Jets, the Ravens, the Steelers, the Packers, the Colts, and the Bears -- all playoff teams -- plus a win over the San Diego Chargers, who boasted arguably the best team on paper (at least statistically).

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons achieved a 13-3 record, including wins over the Saints, the Ravens, the Seahawks, and the Packers.  Those are the only playoff teams beaten by Atlanta.  Their other wins came against the likes of the Panthers, Browns, Bengals, Cardinals, 49ers, Buccaneers, and such.  The Falcons lost, however, to the Eagles, Steelers, and Saints. 

I’m not saying that an evaluation of the Packers’ schedule would look any better.  Rather, my point is simply that there must be a reason why a team is the #1 seed in its Conference.  In the case of the Patriots, it’s clearly because they are an amazingly good team.  In the case of the Falcons, however, I wonder if it’s because they had a favorable schedule. 

I’m just wondering.

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Atlanta Falcons,New England Patriots,NFL Playoffs

Déjà Vu All Over Again

Four games on the NFL playoff schedule this weekend, and each one is a rematch.  In fact, in two cases, it’s a rubber match.

The Ravens and Steelers split their season series in the AFC North, with each team winning at the other one’s home by 3 points.  These two teams have been famously evenly-matched in recent years, and so it promises to be a close, physical, and intense game.  Pittsburgh presumably has home field advantage, but winning on the road doesn’t seem to be a problem for Baltimore, and they won’t have the rust issues that the Steelers might.

Meanwhile, the Jets and Patriots also split their season series, though not so evenly.  The Jets also fancy themselves evenly matched with their Division rivals, too, though I think they may be kidding themselves.  Perhaps I’m wrong, but I believe New England is several notches better than New York.  True, the Jets have the superior defense, but I’m thinking that the Patriots have the better quarterback and the better coach, which should make a significant difference in a playoff setting.

Over in the NFC, the rematches are not Divisional ones (that should come the following week in the NFC Championship game!).

The Seahawks came into Chicago and beat the Bears in Week 6, which has to be regarded as something of a fluke within the context of both teams’ seasons.  The following week, the Bears lost to the equally poor Redskins.  Then came their bye, and they have reputedly been a different team since, going 7-2, with their only two losses being to very respectable opponents (the Patriots and Packers). 

I don’t know that many people seriously expect the Seahawks go get past the Bears in order to host the NFC Championship Game.  On the other hand, I don’t know that many people seriously expected the Seahawks to (soundly) beat the defending champion Saints!

Then there is the Packers’ return to Atlanta, where they lost by 3 in Week 12. 

Here’s the thing about the Week 12 game…  Matt Ryan completed 24 of 28 passes, using 9 different receivers, with 1 TD and no picks.  Turner carried the ball 23 times for 110 yards (4.8 yards per carry) and a TD.  They didn’t turn the ball over at all, but they recovered a critical Packer fumble in their end zone.  And they held Green Bay to fewer than 80 yards on the ground (including 51 by Aaron Rodgers himself!).

All of which is to say, the Falcons played a nearly perfect game.  Their only real flaw was giving up a lot of yards through the air (Rodgers went 26 of 35 for 344 yards and a TD).  So they played a near-perfect game at home, and they still just eked out a 3-point win.  That tells me that there is a lot of pressure on the Falcons to play another near-perfect game, otherwise they’ll lose.

As for the Packers… Well, if they get Starks (or whoever the hero du jour may be) to put together another hundred-yard effort on the ground, and if they don’t turn the ball over, I think they’ll win. 

Mike & Mike reported this morning that, in 4 of the past 5 times that the #6 seed has played the #1 seed, the #6 seed has won.  Remarkable. 

Peter King thinks that's going to happen again on Saturday evening.  Interestingly, his SI.com colleague, Tim Layden, predicts the same final score, but the opposite outcome.  And ESPN.com’s crazy AccuScore reports that, in a thousand simulations of the match-up, Green Bay wins 52% of the time.

Of course, we don’t really need to do quite that well.  Rather than winning 52% of a thousand games against the Falcons, we just need to win 50% of two.

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Atlanta Falcons,NFL Playoffs,Aaron Rodgers,Matt Ryan,New England Patriots,New York Jets,Pittsburgh Steelers,Baltimore Ravens,Seattle Seahawks,Chicago Bears

Favorites

I’m not a gambler, and so I don’t usually follow the betting lines on NFL games, but I did hear yesterday that the Falcons are favored by 1 point in Saturday night’s match-up. 

Well, this much I do know about NFL betting: home field is typically worth 3 points in a betting line.  Which is to say that Vegas thinks Green Bay would beat the Falcons on a neutral field. 

Think about that for a moment… The Green Bay Packers, who have a third of their starters in IR, are still considered a better team than the #1 seed in the NFC.  Remarkable.

No wonder Steve Wyche at NFL.com is not referring to our team as the Packers, but rather as “The Team No One Wants to Face.”  And I wonder if that is especially true of the Falcons.  After all, when you beat an opponent as narrowly as they beat us a few weeks ago, you usually feel like you’ve escaped, like you’ve dodged a bullet, like “Whew, that was a close one!”  Typically, like at the end of Rocky, you don’t want a rematch with that opponent.  But now we’re coming to town again, and I’ve got to think that Falcon fans are nervous about it.

Meanwhile, let’s return for a moment to this matter of Green Bay being the de facto favorite on a neutral field against the #1 seed…

I remember hearing a story quite a few years ago -- I think it was during the heyday of Rick Pitino’s Kentucky Wildcats -- that someone asked one of the other SEC basketball coaches, “We all know that Kentucky is the best team in the Conference.  But who is the second best team?”  And the SEC coach replied, “Kentucky’s bench.”

That’s how dominant, how stacked, how deep that squad was.

Could it be that the Green Bay Packers are similarly deep?  If that’s true, I should take back much of what I’ve said (and thought!) about Ted Thompson.  

If this injury-plagued Packer team is still considered a better team than the #1 seed, just think how good we’ll be when all are starters are back on the field when the 2011 season opens! 

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Atlanta Falcons,NFL Playoffs,Kentucky Wildcats,Rick Pitino,Ted Thompson

Personal Preferences, v.2

At the end of Week 17, when the playoff teams were all settled, I offered a written ranking of those 12 franchises. As I mentioned at the time, the rankings were not my predictions, just my preferences.

Well, the field of 12 is now down to 8. I have reproduced my original list below, with the losing teams appropriately dimmed to gray.

1. Green Bay Packers. Going into the late game on Sunday afternoon, not a single other game of the Wild Card weekend had gone the way I wanted. I was pulling for the Saints, for the Colts, and for the Chiefs. But none of that really mattered to me if only the Packers would win… and they did!
2. New England Patriots. Regular readers of this blog are familiar with my dislike for Randy Moss. While I naturally want the Packers to win it all this year, the Patriots are my second choice for a number of reasons, including this: for New England to win Super Bowls before Moss and after Moss but not with Moss would be a certain kind of sweet.
3. Indianapolis Colts. Tough loss. Peyton Manning’s reputation and legacy will be unfairly damaged by it. Meanwhile, will Coach Caldwell take the appropriate amount of heat for his ineffective coaching? What’s up with that timeout at the end while New York had the ball?
4. Atlanta Falcons. For the next few days, of course, they are my least favorite team in the NFL. If we lose to them on Saturday, I don’t know how I will feel about them. From a dispassionate distance, though, I would still say that I’d prefer to see the Falcons hoist the Lombardi Trophy than anyone lower on this list.
5. New Orleans Saints. Boy, that was ugly! All the magic fairy dust of last season was rudely swept away by one of the most disappointing performances by a highly favored team and defending champ. That is going to leave a bitter taste in the mouths of Saints players and fans for a long time.
6. Kansas City Chiefs. It was more my dislike for the Ravens than my affection for the Chiefs that had me rooting red on Sunday. Oh, well. They were probably overachievers this season, anyway. But I expect Chief fans have a lot to be excited and hopeful about going into the 2011 season (assuming there is a 2011 season!).
7. Seattle Seahawks. Well, that was remarkable. What a game. And what a run by Marshawn Lynch! I found the upset intriguing enough that I didn’t grieve too much over the Saints’ loss. And the Seahawks’ return to Chicago, where they managed to win earlier this season, is a fascinating prospect next Sunday.
8. New York Jets. Again, this is the spot in the list where we shift from the teams I rather like to the ones I dislike. I was sorry to see the Jets pull off that last-second victory in Indy. It doesn’t matter too much to me, though, for I don’t really expect that either team was going to go into New England this coming weekend and win. And in the case of the Jets, I will be particularly pleased to watch them lose.
9. Baltimore Ravens. I like their coach and I’m okay with their quarterback. But I still resent their franchise, and I deeply dislike Ray Lewis. I will find any Baltimore win more tolerable once he retires, gets traded, gets injured, or dies. Still, for all of that, I dislike the Steelers even more, and so I will be -- gulp -- a Ravens’ fan this weekend!
10. Philadelphia Eagles. I said I was tired of all the Vick hype, and so I’m glad that we put an end to it. Now, it seems, the Michael Vick conversation has turned into a consideration of his uncertain future as a free agent. Interesting.
11. Chicago Bears. So who do you think they were rooting for this weekend? Because of seedings, they couldn’t get the Packers in the Divisional Round. Did they want the defending champion Saints? I doubt it. Did they want the Eagles? They had already beaten them in the regular season, but still Philly is a frightening team. Or did they even in their dreams think that they could get the 7-9 Seahawks? And yet, Seattle did win in Chicago earlier this year… A fluke? We shall see.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers. Well, they have the advantage of a week off and a home game. Plus, they know the Ravens SO well, there isn’t much film study or game-planning to do. These two teams split their regular season meetings, each one winning by 3 on the other team’s turf. I’d be glad if they followed that same pattern in the postseason!

Technorati Tags: NFL Playoffs,Green Bay Packers,New England Patriots,Indianapolis Colts,Atlanta Falcons,New Orleans Saints,New York Jets,Kansas City Chiefs,Baltimore Ravens,Philadelphia Eagles,Chicago Bears,Pittsburgh Steelers,Seattle Seahawks

Packers win in Philly, Beat Vick, and Get the Monkey Off Rodgers’ Back

It was the marquee match-up of Wild Card weekend, with particular attention being paid to the two big-name quarterbacks: Michael Vick and Aaron Rodgers. 

Before the season began, many were picking Rodgers to win the NFL MVP.  Halfway through the season, many were picking Vick to to win it.  In the end, neither one is likely to win that award, but at least Michael Vick is going to the Pro Bowl. 

And Aaron Rodgers is going to the Divisional Round of the playoffs!

I think that if he had to choose between the two, he’d pick the trip that he is making.

President Kennedy famously observed, “Victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan.”  That is probably more true in politics than in sports, however, for the genealogy of Philly’s defeat is pretty easy to trace.  David Akers left 6 points on the field in a game that his team lost by 5.  And Michael Vick, driving down the field for the winning score, threw an interception in the end zone with half a minute left in the game. 

(Winston Justice is a bit of a sorry goat, too, but his two-play, three-penalty ordeal did not ultimately contribute to the loss.)

Meanwhile, James Starks didn’t do anything to bump Marshawn Lynch’s run from the weekend’s highlight reel, but he performed marvelously on the road, doing everything the Packers needed him to do.  Starks carried the ball 23 times for 123 yards, which calculates out to a 5.3 yard per carry average.  How about that?!  This was the Packers’ glaring weakness -- no balance in the offense, no running attack.  But when you’ve got a back who can put up a hundred-yard-game, especially with that kind of per carry average, you’re giving the opposing defense something to think about.

Specifically, something for the Falcon defense to think about.

The Packers head to Atlanta on Saturday night, where they lost a close one (but I repeat myself) in Week 12.  That was the Rodgers-goal-line-fumble game.  I don’t think he’s the kind of guy who dwells on past failures or mistakes, but I do suspect that he relishes the prospect of going back in there and getting a different result. 

‘More about that as the day approaches…

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Philadelphia Eagles,Aaron Rodgers,Michael Vick,NFL Playoffs,James Starks,David Akers

With Mouth Agape

I’m a pretty even keel kind of guy: hard to shock, not prone to overreaction.  But as I sit watching the 4th-quarter of the Saints-Seahawks game, my chin is on my chest. 

Did you see that run by Marshawn Lynch?!  Everyone on the field -- plus everyone in the booth, in the stands, and in the television audience! -- everyone knew that was going to be a running play.  And in spite of that, Lynch pulled off one of the most spectacular, determined, unlikely touchdown runs I have ever seen in all my years of watching football.

(Remember when there was speculation that the Packers might trade for Lynch?  But, no… our running game is fine.)

The idiom is that “on any given Sunday…”  Perhaps it applies to the occasional Saturday, too.  So it was that the defending Super Bowl Champion Saints fell to the Seattle Seahawks -- the team that many were dismissing, not only as the poorest team in the field of twelve, but as one of the poorest teams ever to make the playoffs. 

But the Saints are going home, and the Seahawks are going on to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. 

‘Remember what I wrote at the end of the last post?  I’m beginning to feel nervous…!

Technorati Tags: New Orleans Saints,Seattle Seahawks,NFL Playoffs,Marshawn Lynch

Wild Card Weekend

We come finally to that time of year that everyone has been practicing and playing for ever since July.  It’s down to 12 teams now, all back to 0-0, and all playing within the peculiarly stressful one-and-done playoff reality.

Two of the four games this weekend are widely regarded as mismatches.  The visiting Ravens are expected to go into Kansas City and beat the AFC West champion Chiefs.  And, even more than that, the defending Super Bowl champion Saints are almost universally expected to beat the sub-.500 Seahawks in Seattle.  The “in Seattle” part seems to be the only thing that the Seahawks have going for them. 

The Jets-Colts match-up is a more interesting one.  Peyton Manning has owned Rex Ryan, and now the mouth that roared is adding juice to the game by talking way too much about Manning, the Colts, and the personal sense of rivalry he feels.

The experts at SI.com have made their playoff predictions, from this weekend’s game all the way through the Super Bowl.  No one is picking us to win it all, though several are predicting that we’ll make it to the big game and lose to the Patriots.  Meanwhile, all but one of them is picking the Packers to beat the Eagles.

That is the game that is being celebrated as the best match-up of this coming weekend.

The Packer players may not feel the need for vengeance on Sunday afternoon, but the Packer fans feel it.

First, it’s a playoff game in Philadelphia, which brings back into our mouths the bitter taste of “4th-and-26.”  Most of the guys on our roster know nothing about that debacle, but it’s a painful memory for the fan base.

Second, there is the memory of Michael Vick vs. the Packers in the playoffs.  Up until that awful winter night, the Packers were undefeated in the postseason in Lambeau Field.  Favre, too, had a similarly unblemished cold-weather record.  Who would have thought that the warm-weather, dome-home upstarts could come into the Frozen Tundra and get the win?  It was a miserable night, and while the present players may not know much about it, we fans remember.

I heard an encouraging word about our game on the radio today.  Sal Paolantonio said that he, Ron Jaworski, and Merril Hoge all believe that Michael Vick has actually regressed during this season.  That, in addition to the uncertain condition of his bruised quad, makes for a very hopeful scenario. 

On the other hand, Paolantonio also soberly observed that the Packers’ great weakness is that they tend to “get tight.”  He said McCarthy gets tight at the end of close games, and he believes that filters down into the team -- especially the offense.  He thinks it’s very likely, therefore, that Green Bay will lose another close one on the road.

Ugh.  What a kick in the gut that would be. 

Ross Tucker, on the other hand, who is a very bright guy, likes the Packers to win on Sunday.  He thinks it’s a horrible match-up for Philly, and he doesn’t even think it’ll be close.  He thinks a Packer win is the surest thing of the weekend after the Saints beating the Seahawks. 

So I’m going to relax -- until the Seahawks win on Saturday, at which point I’ll go back to feeling anxious!

 

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Philadelphia Eagles,NFL Playoffs,NFL predictions,Michael Vick,Ross Tucker,Sal Paolantonio

Lots of Love for the Pack

The commentators have all begun to comment on the upcoming playoff games and the teams involved.  And it seems to be a consistent theme that, even though the Packers are a 6th seed and didn’t make the cut until late on the final week of the season, no one wants to play them and they could go all the way.

Peter King has prepared quickie videos featuring his brief summaries of each team.  I listen to him, and I hear a lot of love for the Packers.

Meanwhile, his colleague at Sports Illustrated, Don Banks, has ranked all 12 playoff teams.  He puts Green Bay in the middle (#6), but the Falcons and Saints are the only NFC teams he ranks ahead of us.  Also, he likes our chances this weekend against the Eagles:

Aaron Rodgers needs to win a playoff game to fully take his place among the game's top five quarterbacks and get the credit he's due. But the pressure of Green Bay having to win out to reach the playoffs should serve him well, because it has put him in postseason mode these past two weeks and prepared him for the big-stage games to come this month. The best news for the Packers is the way their defense has come on and started to dominate of late. They can rush the passer and they can play the pass, and that's the formula for winning playoff defense. I'm on record saying the Eagles are in trouble this Sunday in Philly.
Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/don_banks/01/05/nfl-playoff-power-rankings/index.html#ixzz1AE54p9zF

Elsewhere, at NFL.com, they offer a chart of the standings going into the playoffs.  If you click on each team, you can read a quick summary of where they’re at, how they got there, and what their prospects are.  Remarkably, in 3 of the 6 NFC team blurbs, the Packers are referenced.

On the other hand, the power rankings at ESPN.com are much less favorable.  They put both the Eagles and Bears ahead of the Pack -- a fascinating decision since we played both teams head-to-head this season, besting the Eagles and splitting with the Bears.  A slight majority of the experts at CBS Sports are also favoring the Eagles this Sunday.  And Steve Wyche at NFL.com also gives a slight edge to Philly (though I think his technique is highly arbitrary and badly flawed).

In the end, of course, all this speculation is just for the amusement and distraction of frustrated fans like me who can hardly stand the wait between weekends!  (It’s too bad I don’t like the NBA or MLB more, since they have games on constantly throughout the week during their respective seasons.) 

The sports pundits are, in a sense, even less informed than the political pundits are on their TV and radio shows.  The latter at least have the advantage of actual polling data to help handicap an upcoming contest.  But there is nothing about what will happen on the field Sunday afternoon that the sports writers and broadcasters can see in advance.  All that any of us can do is look back at what has happened in the past, and then project from there.

And as I look back over the past month of football, I would say that Green Bay is playing better than Philadelphia.  And that’s good enough to give me a lot of hope going into Sunday.

By the way, here is a very helpful, concise summary of this year's playoff schedule.

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Philadelphia Eagles,NFL Playoffs

A Disconcerting Game

I believe that this past Sunday’s game at Lambeau was a most disconcerting game.  I just can’t decide for whom.

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The Green Bay Packers committed just 4 penalties in their win against the Chicago Bears.  Four penalties for 30 yards.  That’s a pretty clean and disciplined game.

Except that all 4 penalties were committed by the same guy!

Bryan Bulaga, the Packers’ 1st-round pick in last spring’s draft, has proven to be a very able rookie in the trenches for the offensive line for Green Bay.  But on Sunday at Lambeau, either the Bears’ D-line or the gravity of the occasion got to Bulaga, and he was flagged for 2 holding penalties and 2 false starts.  Four penalties for 30 yards.  We need him to get his act together if we’re going to make a playoff run.

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Speaking of playoff runs, is it possible to make a playoff pass, instead?

Clark Judge of CBS Sports, in a very thoughtful evaluation of the Packers, thinks that the absence of a serious running game is going to doom us in the postseason. 

We sure didn’t muster much of a running game against the Bears.  On the other hand, Chicago’s defense ranked 2nd in the NFL against the run this season, so our struggles in that department on Sunday were no great shame.  And we did show a rather healthy -- not explosive, but healthy -- running attack against both the Giants and the Patriots in the previous two games.

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Of course, the passing game was disappointing on Sunday, too. Rodgers went 18 for 29, tallying a rather pedestrian 229 yards.  Not the kind of eye-catching performance we saw against New York the previous week.  

On the other hand, it was enough to get the job done.  You don’t have to win by 30 points in order to win.  Our “W” on Sunday was worth just as much as Pittsburgh’s, for example, as they wiped out the Browns 41-9.  Indeed, our “W” is arguably worth more inasmuch as we beat a better team.

The win over the Bears was not flashy, but it was a tough, gritty win: reminiscent of our performance against the Jets a few weeks back.  And since we seem to struggle in close games, I’m glad for any occasion when we can go into the 4th quarter knotted up with a good opponent and still come away with a victory.

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Meanwhile, how disconcerting should this past Sunday be to Bears’ fans? 

Lovie Smith almost inexplicably kept his starters in all game, though they had nothing to gain by winning and nothing to lose by losing.  Still, he kept them out there.  Still, they kept playing hard.  And, still, they managed only 3 points on offense, and they gave up 10 points on defense. 

In the end, both the Packers and Bears held serve this season by winning their homes games against one another.  The Bears won by 3.  The Packers won by 7.  That’s pretty evenly matched.  But if I were a Chicago fan, I think I’d be afraid to see the Packers come to town at any point during this postseason. 

If we do end up meeting again, it would be in the NFC Championship game.  Chicago will have to win just one game to get there.  We’ll have to win two, beginning with this Sunday afternoon’s tilt in Philadelphia. 

‘More on that later…

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Chicago Bears,Bryan Bulaga,Lovie Smith

Week Seventeen Preview

Well, here in the first weekend of 2011, we have finally arrived at the climax of the 2010 NFL campaign.  And a remarkable number of things remain to be decided, which makes for interesting viewing.

In the AFC, all the participants are decided except for one slot -- the Colts and Jaguars are vying for the one remaining position, with Indy  having the inside track.  A Colts’ win against the flaming out Titans will guarantee them the AFC South title and the final AFC spot.  A Colts’ loss plus a Jacksonville win in Houston would send the perennial playoff Colts home and usher the Jags into the postseason.

In the NFC, there are more teams involved in contested playoff berths.  The Packers cement their spot as sixth seed by beating the Bears at Lambeau.  Or, alternately, we could afford a loss to Chicago if both the Giants and Buccaneers lose today.  We’ll know the outcome of the Bucs-Saints game by the time our game commences, but the Giants and Redskins play in the late slot with us.

The Giants are in with a win and a Green Bay loss.  They, no doubt, are kicking themselves for their disastrous past two weeks. 

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have the slightest of chances.  Not only do they need to beat the Saints, who are still in contention for the NFC South title; they also need both the Giants and Packers to lose.   I would consider it astonishing if Tampa Bay makes it.

Surprisingly, the Sunday Night Game between the Rams and Seahawks turns out to be the best contest of the day.  Not in sheer football terms, of course, for both teams are rather inferior.  But their game enjoys the greatest drama as the winner takes the NFC West while the loser watches the playoffs on TV. 

Finally, the other matter of some interest to us as Packer fans are the results of the Saints and Falcons games, both of which will be over as we kick off.  If both teams happen to lose -- and what are the odds? -- then the Bears would be in line to capture the #1 overall seed in the NFC.  Selfishly, we don’t want them to have that motivation at 3:15 Central Time.  Apart from that potentiality, they don’t stand to gain anything by beating the Packers this afternoon.

Conventional wisdom, of course, is that a team wants momentum going into the postseason, they want to be playing their best ball, and they want to play every games as professionals who have pride in their performance.  On top of that, the feeling is that the Bears would love to knock the Packers out of the playoffs.  Still, I love the way we’re playing, and I believe we’ll win this one by a couple of scores. 

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Chicago Bears,New Orleans Saints,Atlanta Falcons,St. Louis Rams,Seattle Seahawks,Tampa Bay Buccaneers,Indianapolis Colts,Jacksonville Jaguars,New York Giants

David’s Guide to Play-Calling

I’ve never been a coach of any sport at any level, and so I readily admit that I am inexpert in this matter about which I have a long-held theory.  Still, in spite of my lack of qualification, I am confident.  Indeed, I am even confident that my theory would apply effectively to many other areas of life beyond just sports.

In the wake of the Badgers’ terribly disappointing Rose Bowl appearance, I am feeling very frustrated.  I find myself pacing around the house, muttering about how my theory was under-employed.

So what is this simple and universal bit of golden wisdom?  Just this:  Ask yourself what the other team does not want you to do, and then do that. 

Do they hope that you’ll pass?  Then run.  Do they hope that you’ll settle for a field goal?  Then go for a first down.  Do they hope that you’ll kick it to such-and-such a return guy?  Then kick it away from him. 

I believe play-calling should be just that simple.  And, really, just that obnoxious. 

As I indicated above, I think the principle applies beyond sports. 

Which candidate does the other party hope you’ll end up nominating?  Make sure you choose someone else.

What does the enemy general, the business competitor, the personal rival hope that you’ll do?  Do the other thing.

More significantly still, what does the Devil want you to do?  Do the opposite.  What does he not want you to do?  Do that every day.  It’s just that simple.

Well, back to football…

I went into Saturday’s Rose Bowl full of anticipation.  Having watched the Badgers dominate other teams on the ground all year, I felt certain that they could have their way with the undersized Horned Frogs.  Yet by the time the game was finished, what had we done?  We had lost the game on a passing play.

Since when can these Badgers not make 3 yards on the ground when they are determined to do it?  Yet when the game was on the line, and it all came down to the two-point conversion, we tried to throw the ball for three yards. 

I have nothing against Scott Tolzien -- I think he’s been great.  But everyone knows that a passing play within the 5-yard-line is a crowded environment in which to throw the ball.  And if we could have split open the minds of the TCU coaching staff to see what they were hoping, I’m sure we would have seen that they hoped we’d throw it instead of running it.

All day long we should have run it.  Pound the ball, eat the clock, punish the defense, move the chains, keep Dalton on the bench.  That was the key to victory. 

The Badgers’ Big Three -- Ball, Clay, and White -- ran the ball for a combined 41 carries and 231 yards.  That’s a 5.6 yards-per-run average.  5.6!  Run the ball on first down.  Run the ball on second down.  And, look…  It’s first down again!

Why ever throw it?  Why not run it on every play?  I’m sure that’s what TCU was afraid we would do, and so that’s precisely what we should have done. 

It was a dismal day for the Big Ten.  In some respects, the Badgers acquitted themselves better than any of their peers today.  Nevertheless, the Rose Bowl was a game we should have won, and I knew how to do it: Just do what the other team hopes that you won’t.

Technorati Tags: Wisconsin Badgers,TCU Horned Frogs,Rose Bowl