How Do I Love Thee…

I willingly admit that I was severely critical of how Ted Thompson (and perhaps Mike McCarthy) handled the Brett Favre situation a few seasons ago.  For all of his idiosyncrasies and his tiresome annual to-retire-or-not-to-retire drama, it seemed incomprehensible to me that the Packers would ever trade away Brett Favre.  Unthinkable.  Yet that’s what it came to in the unbelievable offseason of 2008. 

All that said, I have fallen in love with Aaron Rodgers. 

I don’t mean to suggest that I began with any prejudice against him – my displeasure was almost entirely with Thompson.  But it would have been an easy thing to feel unhappy with whatever quarterback tried to take the place of the beloved and inimitable Favre.  Yet I have fallen in love with Rodgers.

I love that he was quiet and classy during the whole soap opera transition.  I love that he lets his play do most of his talking.  And I love that we never see any sideline drama from him during games.

I love his arm strength – did you see that 60-yard near-completion to Jennings?  I love his pocket awareness, his athleticism, and his ‘escapability.’  And I love his judgment and accuracy throwing the ball.

I love his control of the offense, his knowledge of defenses, and his poise at the line of scrimmage.  And I love that he can make positive plays with his head, his arm, and his feet.  If our dubious line can keep him healthy, he’s going to be a winner for a long time. 

This guy is a genuinely cool customer.  He showed it during the whole Thompson v Favre saga.  He showed it during last year’s million-sack season.  He shows it at the line of scrimmage, in the pocket, and on the sideline. 

It’s not often that a legendary starting quarterback is successfully replaced.  The Broncos still haven’t filled Elway’s shoes.  The Dolphins have followed Marino with a succession of mostly nobodies.  And the Cowboys keep kidding themselves that Romo is able to pick up where Aikman left off. It just doesn’t happen often. 

But it may have happened in Green Bay.

Technorati Tags: Aaron Rodgers,Brett Favre,Ted Thompson

Post Mortem

A local talk radio guy out of Milwaukee, Mark Belling, devoted a portion of his Tuesday afternoon show to the Packers’ Monday Night debacle in Chicago.  It’s an interesting analysis at the intellectual level.  Perhaps more importantly, however, it’s also a very cathartic analysis at the emotional level.

I’m linking to that portion of Mark's podcast here.  The Packer portion is a few minutes into this podcast segment. 

Enjoy!

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Chicago Bears,Monday Night Football,Mark Belling

Foul Play

Not since “Beauty and the Beast” has such ugliness coexisted with such excellence.

The excellence was Aaron Rodgers, the tough, resilient, and usually reliable receivers, the pass rush, and the overall game plan. 

The ugliness?  Oh, my!  Major special teams failures, embarrassing offensive line play, and a truly scandalous lack of overall team discipline. 

Last year, Green Bay threatened early on to set a regular season record for sacks allowed.  This year, we distinguished ourselves with a franchise record for penalties. 

I’m sure Coach McCarthy will promise that they’re ‘gonna go back and fix that this week.’ 

In the first few series, it looked like Green Bay was going to have a cake walk.  We moved the ball efficiently on offense, and we stifled Chicago on defense.  Even into the second half, when it was obviously a closer contest, the Packers showed the kind of ball control, time-of-possession, sustained-drive offense that is the hallmark of champions. 

On the other side of the ball, you can hardly fault our defense.  The Bears scored 20 points, but 7 belonged to a kick return for a touchdown.  So technically the defense only gave up 13 points, which really ought to be few enough for the Packers to win. 

Bottom line?  Mistakes.  Offensive penalties that broke our rhythm and undermined what Rodgers and the receivers were trying to do.  Plus the unbelievable penalty yardage our defense gave up on Chicago’s final drive.  That was really beyond belief.  And then, of course, there was the fumble.

I am not an overly optimistic fan, but I felt quite confident that Green Bay was going to win when we got the ball back with 3-plus minutes and a 17-17 tie.  I was confident that we’d be able to work our way into field goal position, and I was even fairly certain that Crosby would make whatever kick we gave him.  It was that fumble.  Heartbreaking!  If that ball had only bounced out of bounds, I’m sure we’d have gone ahead for the win. 

But our offense gave them the ball, and then our defense gave them the game – not so much by being outplayed as by being careless.

This is going to be a tough one to live with.  Fortunately, it’s a short week before we get to host the Lions on Sunday afternoon and get back in the win column.

Meanwhile, the Bears go into Week 4 as the only undefeated team in the NFC.  Who’d have thunk it?  Perhaps the Giants can correct their errors in time to deal Chicago its first loss next Sunday in New York.

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Chicago Bears,Aaron Rodgers

Made of Clay

One of the dominant storylines of the early 2010 season has been the Packers’ Clay Matthews.  He is getting the press on defense that Michael Vick is on offense (adjusting for the fact that offense always gets more press than defense anyway). 

Coming out of Week Two, Don Banks, in his weekly “Power Rankings,” regarding the Packers as the #2 team in the league (behind the New Orleans Saints, who will no doubt drop after their shameful overtime loss on Sunday).  And in his brief remarks on the Pack, he highlighted Matthews’ amazing start to the season":

The Packers lead the NFC through two weeks with 61 points, but that's not their most impressive statistical feat so far. Green Bay outside linebacker Clay Matthews has six sacks, which is more than 25 of the league's 32 teams have amassed. Given the Bears' early pass protection problems, Chicago might want to pay a little extra attention to No. 52 on Monday night.
Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/don_banks/09/22/power.rankings.1/index.html?eref=sihp#ixzz10jx3OELo

Meanwhile, in this week’s MMQB, Peter King gives a fascinating bit of background information about the Packers’ roster moves involving Clay Matthews…

The Green Bay Packers can thank Brett Favre for one more thing, other than a lot of memories, when they take the field tonight in Chicago.

The Packers traded Favre to the New York Jets for a conditional draft choice in 2008. The pick became the Jets' third-rounder in the 2009 draft because Favre played more than 50 percent of the snaps in the 2008 season. So when the Packers started looking for an extra pick to pair with the 41st and 73rd overall picks to send to New England for the 26th overall pick in the first round on that draft day, GM Ted Thompson reached into his trove of choices and pulled out the Favre pick -- the 83rd. He sent the three picks to New England for that first-rounder and a fifth- to get a prospect many in the league thought had some holes because of a very spotty college career. The prospect started only eight games in five years, but Thompson had a feel for him. He thought the prospect would be just what his front seven was missing. And so the deal got made, and Thompson used the ultimate headache that had been the Favre nightmare to help him get his man.

NFL sack leader Clay Matthews.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/peter_king/09/26/Week3/3.html#ixzz10jwI9qdt

Well, after his ridiculous start to this season and all the press he’s been getting, Matthew won’t be able to sneak up on Jay Cutler tonight.  But that doesn’t mean he won’t get to him. 

Technorati Tags: Ted Thompson,Brett Favre,Clay Matthews,Peter King,Don Banks,si.com

Week Three Preview

It’s all intramural for the NFC North in Week Three.  The Vikings host the Lions on Sunday afternoon and the Packers play in Chicago on Monday Night.

The fascinating thing about these two games is how the records match up.  The NFC North currently boasts two winless teams and two undefeated teams, and each like kind is facing its counterpart.  That makes for high drama.

In the case of the Lions-Vikings, for example, you have two teams that are desperate to avoid an 0-3 start. 

For Detroit, it would be most deflating, for they came into this season genuinely hopeful that this Lion team was going to be an improvement on the futility of recent years.  For them, though, a loss would put them alone back at the bottom of the Division, including two losses already within the Division – a nearly hopeless profile.  

For Minnesota, meanwhile, an 0-3 start would be a complete disaster.  This is a team, after all, that was in the NFC Championship Game last year – and came close to winning it!  While I didn’t expect them to match last year’s magic, NO ONE would have believed that they would start 2010 at 0-3. 

Because of my contempt for the Vikings, I’ll be pulling for Detroit.  My prediction, however, is a Minnesota win.

Meanwhile, the Packers travel to Chicago for a big-deal Monday Night game.  It’s got it all, you know: Division rivals, both undefeated, playing for the early leg-up in the NFC North race, oldest rivalry in the NFL, quarterback star power, and all in prime time.  It’s got the makings of a great game.

The two concerns, of course, are these:  (1) Is Chicago’s offense really suddenly that good?  (2) Can we possibly create any sort of balanced attack against them when (a) we don’t seem to have a running game under the best of circumstances, and (b) Chicago’s D is killer against the run?   Yet if we just give up on trying to run the ball altogether, then they’ll pin their ears back and come after Rodgers.  And even if he manages to be prolific enough to get the Packers the lead, an all-pass offense doesn’t give much rest to our defense, and it’s a lousy way to hold a lead.

I’m fearful about this one.  If I had to put money on it, I’d still take the Packers, for I think we are the better all-around team.  Still, it’s a game that I can imagine us losing.

Finally, elsewhere around the league, the Cowboys-Texans tilt should be a surprisingly interesting match-up.  The Texans have lived for years in the Cowboys’ large shadow there in Texas, but in 2010 the attitudes about the two teams are quite different.  Undefeated Houston is suddenly the hot commodity, while winless Dallas has joined Minnesota as the patron saints of disappointment in 2010.  And while I don’t foresee the Vikings falling to 0-3, I really can imagine the Cowboys losing this game on the road.  Could Wade Philips survive such a development?  Could the Cowboys, lacking the strong sort of leadership that characterized their glory years in the 90s, right their ship after such a miserable start?  It’ll be fascinating to see.

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Chicago Bears,Monday Night Football,Detroit Lions,Minnesota Vikings,Dallas Cowboys,Houston Texans

Divorce News

Some months ago, I wrote about how Packer fans are like children from a broken home. 

We love Brett – loved him for years! – but he and Ted evidently had irreconcilable differences.  Brett moved out.  When he was with the Jets, a lot of us were content to shuttle back and forth between two homes, rooting for both the Packers and the Jets each weekend.  Once Brett moved in with the Vikings, however, that joint custody became intolerable, and so we’re back to living with Ted full-time.

Well, in Peter King’s most recent MMQB column on SI.com, he quotes an excerpt from a piece by Andrew Brandt that offers us a lot of insight into the behind-the-scenes stuff that led to the divorce.  Here is it, FYI:

I think the most interesting thing I read this week, by far, was the column about Randy Moss in National Football Post by former Packer salary-cap czar and negotiator Andrew Brandt. Terrific insight about how angry Favre was when Packers GM Ted Thompson didn't sign Moss in 2007. A snippet of it, starting with the time on draft weekend 2007, when it was the Patriots who got Moss over the Packers, because New England was willing to give Moss a one-year deal and a clear path to free-agency after the season, while Green Bay insisted on a second year:

"Brett was livid. The rest of the weekend I was fielding calls from [agent for Favre and Moss] Bus Cook about what went wrong in trying to sign Randy. Ted did not want to deal with Bus, so I listened patiently to their rancor and tried to explain our position. I truly empathized with Brett. He had befriended and admired Randy for years and the two of them had dreamed of playing together. Here was an opportunity for us to make it a reality. But ultimately, we stood on our principles requiring more than a one-year commitment.

"I told Brett to trust what we had at the position; that Greg Jennings would be a star in a couple years. He said he didn't have a couple of years. Brett offered to give up some of his salary for the following season -- although that was his last season with the Packers -- to bring in Randy. I told that was much appreciated but we would never take his money away from him to sign another player. Brett was forever wanting a more aggressive attitude by the front office toward player acquisition than the present regime. My constant message that our method of drafting and developing talent rather than acquiring proven commodities only served to infuriate him and his resentment of a general manager that showed him none of the compassion and welcomed input of previous regimes.''

Wow. That gives you a great window into how little regard Favre had for Thompson by the time his 2008 "retirement'' came about. This isn't the first insightful, important piece by Brandt either. He's really good in the role of writer with a window into how the game works.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/peter_king/09/19/mmqb/4.html#ixzz10HlQ7Tjl

Technorati Tags: Peter King,Andrew Brandt,Brett Favre,Ted Thompson,New York Jets,Minnesota Vikings,Randy Moss

Surprise, Surprise!

I was surprised again and again this Sunday.

I was surprised by the Vikings.  I didn’t think they’d be as good as last year, for in 2009 they were too nearly perfect (and lucky) to be able to match in 2010.  I felt pretty sure, however, that they would hold serve against the Dolphins at home.  But Minnesota’s offense failed to punch it in and turned it over on downs inside the 5, and their notorious quarterback threw 3 interceptions and no touchdowns on the day. 

So Minnesota is 0-2 and at the bottom of the NFC North.  How many teams make the playoffs after an 0-2 start?

Well, I’ll tell you (courtesy of Mike & Mike).  In the past 20 years, 169 teams have started a season 0-2.  Only 22 of them (13%) have made the playoffs after such a weak beginning.  And of those 22, only 4 (about 2% of the 169 total) have made it all the way to the Super Bowl. 

(Incidentally, once a team that started so poorly actually makes it all the way to the Super Bowl, they have apparently developed such a triumphalism that their chances of winning are quite good.  Three of the 4 aforementioned teams did go on to win the Lombardi Trophy.)

Speaking of such unpromising beginnings, I am also surprised by the Cowboys.  Many observers thought that might finally be the year when a team gets to play the Super Bowl on their home field.  But Dallas is off to a miserable start, including a loss at home to a Bears team that struggled to beat the 0-2 Lions. 

I’m surprised, too, by the Steelers.  They played their 4th-string quarterback yesterday (do we even have a 4th-string quarterback?), and still managed to get a win in Tennessee!

Meanwhile, I am also surprised by a phenomenon that keeps surprising me season after season.  Namely, the week-to-week unpredictability of the games – i.e., the way that one game does not really translate to the next.  The first two weeks of 2010 provide an excellent case in point:

In Week One, the Ravens absolutely smothered the Jets, while the Patriots overwhelmed the Bengals.

In Week Two, they all swapped partners.  And what happened?  The Jets throttled the Patriots, while the Bengals beat the Ravens. 

Who can predict this game?

And, I must begrudgingly confess that I am also surprised by the Bears.  I didn’t think they would be as dysfunctional as they were last season, but neither did I expect the Mike Martz – Jay Cutler marriage to be so successful so quickly. 

Of course, you can’t extrapolate through January based on two weeks in September.  But at this early date, with Pilate, I am really quite surprised.

Technorati Tags: Dallas Cowboys,New England Patriots,New York Jets,Minnesota Vikings,Cincinnati Bengals,Baltimore Ravens,Chicago Bears,Pittsburgh Steelers

Where Seldom is Heard…

It’s hard not to be discouraged about the 2010 season in the wake of Ryan Grant’s season-ending injury.  Yet Sports Illustrated’s Peter King is saying it’s no big deal! (Peter King on Ryan Grant injury) 

‘Nice to hear, though I think he may be understating somewhat Grant’s value to our team.

Meanwhile, rumors abound that Green Bay is working on trying to fill Grant’s shoes with someone other than second-stringer Brandon Jackson.  Specifically, they say that Green Bay is talking about trading A.J. Hawk for Buffalo’s Marshawn Lynch.

Here are some links featuring considerations of that prospective trade:

Time to trade Hawk? 

Analysis of Hawk/Lynch trade

Bills keeping Lynch?

Perhaps since the Bills are coming to Lambeau this weekend anyway, they could just leave Lynch behind after the game and give his plane ticket home to Hawk.  

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Buffalo Bills,A.J. Hawk,Marshawn Lynch,Ryan Grant,Peter King

Week Two Preview

In Week One, the NFC North games were spread out from Thursday evening through late afternoon on Sunday.  In Week Two, all four games are taking place simultaneously, during the early-game time slot on Sunday afternoon.

The Bears, who were lucky to escape Week One with a win, will be playing in Dallas against the frustrated 0-1 Cowboys.  I have no doubt which is the better team, and with it being played on the better team’s field, I think the only question is by how much Dallas will win.

The luckless Lions, meanwhile, get to host the Philadelphia Eagles.  I will be very interested to see Michael Vick against that Detroit defensive line and scheme.  No team wants to open up 0-2, and so everyone involved will feel that there’s a lot at stake.  If the game were in Philly, I’d give the Lions no chance.  Even as it is, I don’t give them much of a chance.  I predict a Lion loss.

The Vikings also get to play at home this week, and they’ve had a long week to prepare for the visiting Dolphins.  Miami didn’t look great in their Week One win, and so I expect Minnesota to rebound here and even their record at 1-1.

Finally, the Packers get to host the Bills.  Buffalo is reputedly one of the worst teams in the league and we are presumably one of the best.  Plus, it’s the home opener at Lambeau.  No contest, right?  Last year’s debacle in Tampa makes me reluctant to speak with too much confidence about this game, but I do think we’ll get the job done.  Look for Green Bay to advance to 2-0 and an early sole possession of first place in the NFC North. 

Meanwhile, it seems to me that the most interesting games this week are all in the AFC. 

The Ravens in Cincy should be fascinating.  Baltimore looked dominant, while the Bengals came into the season with high hopes that were summarily dashed by New England’s beat-down.

Speaking of New England, they play the Jets this weekend, which is a match-up roughly equivalent to the Ravens-Bengals game.  Another game in which the home team had great expectations but underperformed in Week One, and now has to host a tough 1-0 divisional opponent in Week Two.

Finally, I am interested, too, to see how the Steelers fare against the Titans.  I think they dodged a bullet last week against the disappointing Falcons.  I’d be very surprised if they could get out of Tennessee 2-0.

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Detroit Lions,Chicago Bears,Minnesota Vikings,Philadelphia Eagles,Michael Vick,Miami Dolphins,Dallas Cowboys,Buffalo Bills,NFL Week Two,Tennessee Titans,New England Patriots,Pittsburgh Steelers,Cincinnati Bengals,Baltimore Ravens,New York Jets

One Win, Two Losses

About halfway through the first half of the Packer game, I was wondering this: If the NFC North was a beauty contest, could the judges even declare a winner?

The Vikings looked rusty and ugly on Thursday Night in New Orleans.  Neither the Bears nor Lions seemed capable of winning their game.  And the Packers were disturbingly lackluster in their start at Philly.

When it was said and done, Green Bay had created a sort of moldy bread sandwich:  they played great in the middle two quarters of the game, but on either side – 1st quarter and 4th – they were very disappointing.  The offense wasn’t clicking early, and they weren’t able to grind it out and keep the ball away from the Eagles late.  The defense got around to dominating the Kolb-led offense, but once Vick took over, you began to wish it was only a 45-minute game. 

(If Vick had managed to pull them even and force the game into overtime, i don’t think our defense would have had enough gas left to stop them.)

On the other hand, when the Packers looked good – admittedly not the full 60 minutes – they looked great.  The defense had that swagger (Clay Matthews is a beast!!), and the offense showed how potent it can be. 

Even more encouraging than the flashes of brilliance on offense and defense, however, was the surprising performance by our special teams.  The kick return game was just exactly what it is supposed to be – an explosive threat, regularly setting up the offense with a short field.  And Mason Crosby – wow!  When did he become all that?!

So the Packers come out of Week One with a big win:  a road win, a Conference win, and a win against a competitive opponent.

Besides coming out with a big win, the Packers also come out of Week One with two big losses: both Justin Harrell and Ryan Grant have been lost for the season (Packer injuries).  The Justin Harrell loss is more about depth than ability, but that’s no small issue along the defensive line.  Meanwhile, the Ryan Grant loss is huge.

Grant has gained 1,200 yards for Green Bay in each of the past two seasons.  He has also been our breakaway threat, often peeling off the big run that’s a drive-changer.  He has demonstrated the toughness to run between the tackles, but he also has the speed, quickness, and moves to run outside and make guys miss in the open field.  We don’t have a back-up who is close to Grant in speed, talent, and productivity.  And while the Packer offense is probably a pass-first offense – and we are well-equipped for that – we need a complementary running game.  At the moment, we may not have one.

So we enter Week Two with a 1-0 record.  But deep inside we know that it’s one win with two losses. 

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Philadelphia Eagles,Michael Vick,Mason Crosby,Ryan Grant,Justin Harrell

Week One Questions

Who was the guy that predicted the Bengals would win the AFC this year?  Only if the Patriots transfer to the NFC.

If the revitalized Browns can’t beat Tampa Bay, who are they going to be able to beat this year?

How stupid is the rule that made the last-minute Lions touchdown an incompletion? (See below)

What happened to Mason Crosby?  Since when does he make long, clutch kicks?

Any sign of the Super Bowl loser hangover phenomenon?

How do the Falcons lose to a Steeler team in disarray, who were starting a 3rd-string quarterback?  Isn’t Atlanta supposed to be one of the comers in the NFC? 

How good is that Detroit Lion defensive front line?

Why does Mike McCarthy always talk about running the ball as though it were some far-fetched New Year’s resolution?

Should a defense even bother to rush Michael Vick when he drops back to pass?  Isn’t it safer just keeping him in the pocket and letting him try to beat you with his arm?

Can Kevin Kolb keep his job given the difference in dynamism and production between his presence and Vick’s? 

With all the injuries in Week One, who thinks a team could survive an 18-game schedule? 

Which coach will go first – Wade Philips, Lovie Smith, or Eric Mangini?

 

Meanwhile, regarding the aforementioned stupid rule, this excerpt from Peter King:

The rule's a dumb rule, but you can't ask officials to take the law into their own hands. At NBC on Sunday night, Tony Dungy made a terrific point, asking how can the Lance Moore Super Bowl two-point conversion pass be a good catch -- he barely had control of it before breaking the plane of the goal line, then losing control of the ball -- when a much surer Calvin Johnson catch Sunday in Chicago is ruled no good? Dungy's right. The disparity in the two calls is striking and makes fans and the public look at Sunday's ruling and say it's nonsense.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/peter_king/09/12/week1/index.html#ixzz0zRIVfzrI

 

Technorati Tags: NFL Week One,Detroit Lions,Green Bay Packers,Mason Crosby,Indianapolis Colts,Michael Vick,Philadelphia Eagles,Cleveland Browns,Pittsburgh Steelers,Atlanta Falcons

Week One Preview

The 2010 NFL season begins on Thursday night of this week, and it’s a great match-up.  The Minnesota Vikings will revisit the New Orleans Saints in a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game.

The Vikings and the Packers were the cream of the NFC North crop in 2010, with Minnesota sweeping Green Bay and winning the Division.  Both teams’ seasons ended with disappointment – and with a certain propriety.  It was appropriate that the Packer season should end on a sack.  And it was certainly familiar to those of us who have followed Brett Favre through the years that his team’s season should end because of a boneheaded interception. 

Even beyond that ill-fated pass, however, that game must be a painful memory for Favre, for the Saints defense truly abused him.  And it will be interesting to see if they can pick up where they left off, or whether Minnesota will be able to exact some revenge.

Personally, my heart and my head go the same way on this one: I think the Saints beat the Vikings on Thursday Night. 

Meanwhile, our other two Divisional foes – Detroit and Chicago – play each other on Sunday afternoon.  No one seriously expects either team to compete for the Division this year: quite a departure from the optimism that accompanied Jay Cutler’s arrival in Chicago last offseason.  In my judgment, the expectations for Cutler and the Bears were overblown last year.  Likewise, though, I don’t think they are being taken seriously enough going into this season.  I see Chicago winning at home this Sunday and notching an early in-the-Division win for themselves.

Finally, in the premier late game on Sunday, the Packers head to Philadelphia to play the McNabb-less Eagles.  It’s been generally tough sledding for the Packers against the Eagles in recent years, but I expect us to break that trend this week. 

In the end, I look for the Bears and Packers to come out of Week 1 with wins, while Detroit and Minnesota will start in early holes. 

Technorati Tags: NFC North,Week One,predictions,Green Bay Packers,Minnesota Vikings,Chicago Bears,Detroit Lions,Philadelphia Eagles,New Orleans Saints

Great Expectations

If Super Bowls were elections, we Packer fans would have good reason to celebrate, for everyone seems to be voting for Green Bay this year. 

The ESPN experts have high hopes for the Packers.  On ESPN.com we discover a chart featuring the predictions of 16 different football prognosticators, and they are all but unanimous in their expectation that Green Bay will carry the NFC North.  Only Pat Yasinskas (who is he?) presents the dissenting opinion that Minnesota will win the Division.  Every other guy picks the Pack.

Beyond the Division, 9 of the 16 ESPN experts predict that Green Bay will win the entire Conference, representing the NFC in the Super Bowl.  And 4 of the 16 predict that the Packers will win it all! 

By comparison…  The Baltimore Ravens also receive 4 votes to win it all, and the Indianapolis Colts are the favorite pick, with 6 votes out of 16.  (So much for the slump year that traditionally follows for the previous year’s Super Bowl losers.)

The defending champion Saints, meanwhile, who seem to be a team with fewer flaws than the Packers, are only picked by 1 guy to repeat.  These guys were flirting with perfection last year, and they won it all in the end.  I’m not sure why they deserve to be downgraded so. 

Elsewhere, the folks at NFL.com have also put together a team of wise men to forecast the 2010 season.  These NFL.com experts are even more embarrassingly optimistic.  There are 7 of these guys (and I’ve heard of almost all of them), and every single one of them pictures the Packers going to the Super Bowl!  7 out of 7!  Three of them foresee Green Bay beating the Saints in the NFC Championship Game, and four of them see us beating the Cowboys for the privilege of playing Super Bowl XLV… in Dallas!

Finally, when it comes to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, Green Bay is again the favorite, though not unanimous this time.  One of them predicts that Indy will beat us in the big game.  One picks the Ravens over the Packers.  And one drunk says that the Cincinnati Bengals will win it all!

But 4 of these 7 experts say the Packers will prevail (2 over Baltimore, 1 over Indy, and 1 over San Diego). I like the sound of it. 

Personally, though, I think that most of these guys are a little too in love with our quarterback.  Not that I am not a tremendous admirer of Aaron Rodgers – I think he’s great!  But I also think that he was fortunate to survive an entire season behind that offensive line, and I am not yet convinced that Ted Thompson sufficiently improved that group in the offseason. 

Technorati Tags: SI.com,NFL.com,Super Bowl predictions,2010 NFL season,Green Bay Packers,New Orleans Saints,Indianapolis Colts,Minnesota Vikings,Dallas Cowboys,Aaron Rodgers

Am I Ready for Some Football?!

Well, I’m glad that’s over.

For as much as I miss football during the offseason, I find that I get no joy or satisfaction in the preseason.  The poor play unnerves me, yet I am too skeptical to be encouraged by the good play.  Something Pavlovian within me gets excited when I see the field, the uniforms, the players, and the contact, yet I spend most of the time just worrying about the potential for injuries.

I don’t know how I feel about the proposed 18-game schedule.  I do know, though, that if the longer regular season shortens the preseason, I’m all for that!

Well, the Packers emerged from this preseason with a 2-2 record, for what it’s worth.  And what is it worth?  So far as I can tell, nothing. 

They plastered the defending AFC Champion Colts, but they also lost to two of the league’s 2009 bottom-feeders (Cleveland and Kansas City).  Aaron Rodgers looked great, the offensive line was inconsistent, and the running game usually inadequate.  The defense is a source of concern, especially with Johnny Jolly and Al Harris both sidelined.  Aaron Kampman is gone and Charles Woodson is a year older. 

While our preseason record was mediocre, our statistical performance was outstanding.  NFL.com has tallied all the preseason stats (Packers' preseason), and the Packer rank first in points, first in passing yards, and first in total yards.  That’s all very promising.  On the other hand, they were only a middle-of-the-pack 12th in rushing yards, and their defensive numbers were all mid to lower tier.  If defense wins championships…

Still, the experts are dazzled by Green Bay’s offensive prowess.  And many of them are convinced that it will be enough to win the NFL championship in 2010. 

‘More on that next time.

Technorati Tags: preseason,Packers offense,Packers defense,Aaron Rodgers,Super Bowl predictions