The Green Bay Packers Are On The Clock

Well, this week represents the nearest thing to football that we may get for some time.  I’m in no position, of course, to evaluate the probable time line and eventual outcome of the NFL’s labor dispute.  But, long or short, for this moment at least, we have football.  Specifically, the 2011 draft.

The Packers are now widely recognized as a championship team that was primarily built through the draft.  It’s an especially exciting time for Packer fans, therefore.  And all the more because, in our team’s present condition, we enjoy the prospect of getting even better!

Peter King calls this a “luxury draft” for the Packers.  He feels that we have no glaring needs, and so it’s more a matter of anticipating possible needs or shoring up strengths.  He looks for Green Bay to focus on its D-line in his One-Minute Drill.

Sports Illustrated colleague Kerry Wood also concurs that Green Bay is the team that has almost everything, and he lays out the statistics to prove it.  He sees us focusing on the O-line, however:

What do you get the team that has almost everything? How about a ferocious earth mover in the middle of the OL, in the mold of an Alan Faneca or Logan Mankins?

Center and guard are the least-drafted early-round positions in football: just 14 total in the first round over the past decade. But if ever a team should grab an interior lineman early, it's the Packers.

They appeared to have landed their franchise left tackle with last year's top pick, Bryan Bulaga. He started most of the season, made most all-rookie teams and became the youngest Super Bowl winner in history -- he was just 21 when the Packers hoisted the Lombardi Trophy in Dallas (he turned 22 in March).

But Bulaga could use a little help up front, especially there in the soft underbelly of the OL, the team's lone weak link.

The Packers were a statistically dominant juggernaut in 2010, even as they struggled to a 10-6 record and barely squeaked into the playoffs, before proving their potential in the postseason.

They fielded playmakers on both sides of the ball and their statistical dominance was evident by the fact they ranked No. 1 in the NFL in average performance across the board in all of our Quality Stats -- including No. 1 in Bendability (our measure of defensive efficiency), Defensive Passer Rating and Passer Rating Differential. They were in the top five in Passing Yards Per Attempt, Defensive Passing Yards Per Attempt, Quarterback Rating (our new indicator that measures all aspects of QB production), Defensive Quarterback Rating and Offensive Passer Rating.

This was one sick statistical team.

The only relative weakness was on the offensive line, where the Packers ranked a humble No. 16 league-wide in our Offensive Hog Index. The Pack ran the ball poorly (3.81 YPA) and struggled to protect Aaron Rodgers -- who was sacked at least once in every game since Week 8, including all four playoff games.

Put some beef up front, and this team will be well stocked for another Super Bowl run in 2011.

 

Likewise, ESPN’s Kevin Seifert is also thinking O-line for the Packers:

Dream scenario: We've noted that it would be surprising for a blue-chip offensive tackle to be available at No. 29. The likelihood drops accordingly at No. 32. But truth be told, drafting a high-caliber offensive tackle might be the Packers' best-case scenario. Bryan Bulaga, their top pick in 2010, is already entrenched at right tackle. But at some point they'll have to replace left tackle Chad Clifton as well. It's doubtful a high-caliber left tackle will drop to No. 32, but we can dream, right?
Plan B: There would be nothing wrong with drafting an outside linebacker here, especially if a prospect like UCLA's Akeem Ayers is available.

 

In terms of specifics, at pick #32, the projections for the Packers are all over the board.  Pro Football Weekly sees us picking up Georgia OLB Justin Houston.  (Another first-round “Justin” may be a little unnerving for Packer fans though.) Brian Baldinger figures we’ll grab UNC’s LB Bruce Carter.  Peter King, Don Banks, and Charles Davis all predict Ohio State’s DT Cam Heyward for us.  Pat Kirwin projects Alabama’s famous running back Mark Ingram falling to us.  And both Steve Wyche and Bucky Brooks see us taking Arizona’s DL Brooks Reed. 

Finally, as a point of modest interest, Michael Silver of Yahoo! Sports has done an entertaining thing…  He imagines all 32 teams with their present needs, but able to draft existing NFL players.  In that scenario, Silver sees our Aaron Rodgers going #1 overall!  Nice vindication for a guy who fell famously on national TV during Round 1 a few years back. 

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,NFL Draft,Aaron Rodgers

Sick Day

I was home sick from work recently.  Felt lousy.  No energy.  Couldn’t even focus enough to read. 

I slept as much as possible, but after a point you just can’t sleep anymore.  What to do? 

Ah, here is something that might make me feel better…  my tape of Super Bowl XLV!  Yes, that proved to be very therapeutic, indeed (except for the National Anthem, which was as bad this time as I remembered it being back in February). 

Meanwhile, on that subject of Super Bowl ‘entertainment,’ what’s the deal with the halftime show?  When did it become such an extravaganza?  And whose bright idea was that in the first place, anyway?

Think about it…

For 12 months, the Super Bowl is the target of every team, and for 10 months (i.e., from the time of the release of the NFL schedule and the annual NFL draft in April) the Super Bowl is the subject of all football conversation.  This is the game.  This is the raison d’etre for the entire enterprise.  And yet, right in the midst of this -- the ultimate game -- the commentators (who are there in abundance!) are cut short in their halftime analysis so that we can do what…?  Watch a mini-concert?  What does that have to do with football?

Call me old-fashioned, but if it were a college marching band, I would at least feel like the halftime show was consistent with the event.  As it is, though, it seems like a complete intrusion.  If the Super Bowl were a kid’s puzzle, we could ask, “What’s wrong with this picture?”  And I daresay that the halftime show would be recognized easily as the out-of-place thing:  like a fish in a tree, a bicycle with square wheels, or the sun on a starry night. 

Well, back to the game…

The first quarter-and-a-half were a masterpiece.  The Packers were hitting on all cylinders.  The offense had rhythm and production.  The defense was aggressive, stingy, and picked off two of Big Ben’s passes.  It was a thing of beauty.

But then the carnage began.  Driver.  Shields.  Woodson.  All down and out.

And then the momentum began to shift.  It shifted entirely to the Steelers. 

From the end of the 2nd quarter all the way through the 3rd, the Green Bay offense stalled.  And the depleted Packer defense struggled to keep Pittsburgh from moving up and down the field.

Then came the 4th quarter.  Then came the fumble -- Pittsburgh’s 3rd turnover -- and the Packers’ ensuing touchdown. 

The Steelers still made a game of it, to be sure.  And heading into those final two minutes, there was that palpable fear that Pittsburgh would do what it had done time and again.

But, no.  It was Green Bay that did what it had done time and again.  They played through injuries.  They made the big plays when they needed to.  They played a bend-but-don’t-break defense.  And they won!

The Lombardi Trophy’s back home!  Titletown, Baby! 

(And the next time you’re home sick, may I recommend Super Bowl XLV as a wonderfully effective pain reliever.)

Technorati Tags: Super Bowl,Green Bay Packers,Pittsburgh Steelers

The Only Football To Watch

So March Madness is past, and now we are into the NBA Playoffs.  I find those terribly resistible. 

I love watching sports, yet the NBA Playoffs just leave me cold.  I imagine I will only watch scores and be mildly aware of how each series is going until (about 6 months from now) we finally work our way around to the Conference Championships.  Even then, though, I will only be able to muster up interest if there are teams remaining that I love or that I hate. 

It is unlikely that I will be watching teams I love, since there are only two of those, and neither is in the playoffs.  Teams I hate, on the other hand, is a rather larger pool.  Chances are good there. 

Still, the fact is that I find myself just as interested in the nascent baseball season as I do the climax of the NBA’s.

Through it all, of course, what is most important to me is the NFL.  And the league, even amidst its disheartening labor problems, still is providing us something to watch: the unveiling of the 2011 schedule and then the 2011 NFL Draft!

If you haven’t seen it, you’ve got to click on and watch the NFL Draft commercial that is airing these days.  It’s brief, but very gratifying for a Packers’ fan!  (Also, we must admit that it is a kind of tacit endorsement of Ted Thompson.  He is never mentioned, but these 16 seconds and the Lombardi Trophy surely serve to vindicate him.)

Meanwhile, ESPN2 devoted a hunk of evening programming to the revealing of the 2011 Regular Season Schedule.   It didn’t deserve as much time as they gave it, and in some respects it served as a long and continuing promo for ESPN’s Monday Night Football.  Still, by virtue of being defending Super Bowl Champs, they gave prominent attention to the Packers’ schedule, and that was good viewing, indeed!

Here is the Packers' schedule.  Most noteworthy is the 4 prime time appearances, the perfect timing of the bye (Week 8), and the nice end-of-season stretch as 3 of our final 4 games are at home.  The strength of schedule calculation says that Green Bay has the 13th toughest schedule.  By contrast, the Bears are 18th, the Vikings are 12th, and the Lions are 4th.  Ouch! 

A more detailed analysis of Green Bay’s schedule is found here.  And we’ll give it more attention in this space, too, in the days ahead.

Technorati Tags: NFL Draft,2011 NFL Schedule,Green Bay Packers,Ted Thompson