Week 17 -- A Look Ahead

As of this moment on Saturday evening, I haven’t heard definitively whether or not Aaron Rodgers will be playing in the season finale against Detroit.  And as of this moment, I’m still not sure what I hope.

I’ll be taking my youngest daughter to the game, and she is a huge Aaron Rodgers fan.  It’s her first pro football game, and for her sake I’d like him to play.  On the other hand, as a Packers fan in general, I think I’d like to see him far, far away from the action (i.e., the danger).  Still, I suspect that he wants to play, and I don’t think McCarthy is the kind of guy who coaches scared.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rodgers play for a half or so, therefore.

It should be a Sunday of good viewing with a number of significant games.  Much is still up for grabs, including a couple of divisions, several playoff spots, a number of seeds -- plus the number one pick in the 2012 NFL Draft!

For myself, I am rooting in these ways tomorrow…

First, I want the Packers to win.  I don’t want them to lose their edge.  I don’t want them to lose at Lambeau.  I don’t want them to enter the playoffs as losers.  And I want them to end this year’s campaign tied for the second-best record ever: namely, 18-1.  (Only ours will be a preferable 18-1 to the 2007 Patriots’.)

Second, I want the 49ers to win -- a pretty good likelihood against the 2-13 Rams.  I much prefer the prospect of San Francisco keeping the #2 seed in the NFC than the Saints earning that advantage on the final week of the season.

Over in the AFC, I’m rooting for the Broncos, for I rather enjoy the Tim Tebow story and all the debate that accompanies it.  I’m rooting against the Jets, however, for I do not enjoy their stories, coach, and players.  And I’m rooting against the Steelers raising their seeding at all, which at a practical level means that I’m cheering for the Ravens on Sunday.  (That, incidentally, should be a great game, as the Bengals host Baltimore in a win-and-they’re-in game.)

Finally, I want the Cowboys to beat the Giants in New York.  What a great Sunday Night game for the regular season finale!  If we have to face one of those two NFC East teams in the postseason, I would prefer to welcome the Cowboys into Lambeau than the Giants.   

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,NFL playoffs,Aaron Rodgers,Mike McCarthy,San Francisco 49ers,New Orleans Saints,Tim Tebow

Just Like Mama Used to Make

After the debacle in Kansas City on December 18th, there was a good deal of talk about “the recipe.”  Romeo Crennel & Co. had discovered -- indeed, revealed -- the recipe for beating the previously invincible Green Bay Packers.  That spelled trouble for the defending champs.  In a copycat league, every subsequent opponent would do to Green Bay what the Chiefs had done.

And for a little while there in the first half, that all seemed quite plausible.  While the Packers had outscored the Bears, Chicago had admittedly outplayed Green Bay.  The announcers were quite pointed about that fact, noting the discrepancy in yardage, first downs, time of possession, and such. 

Ah, but then Rodgers and the offense relocated the gas pedal and… boom!  Just like that, it was no contest.  Rodgers finished the day with a 72% completion rate, no INTs, and 5 touchdown passes.  It was a thing of beauty, clinching home field advantage, eliminating the Bears, and reasserting our superiority. 

And with Rodgers having that kind of productive day, the offensive rhythm, the defense picking off two passes -- now that was a familiar recipe. 

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Aaron Rodgers,Chicago Bears,Kansas City Chiefs,Romeo Crennel,NFL playoffs

Week 16 -- A Look Ahead

In Week 15, the 13-0 team lost and the 0-13 team won.  There was a certain symmetry in that, I suppose, as the NFL returned from its two extremes to a greater normalcy.  Let’s hope that the symmetry ends there, however, for the 1-13 Colts have already won in Week 16.

It’s an unusual football weekend, with a full slate of games being played on Christmas Eve day.  Then, tomorrow, the Packers host the Bears on Christmas night -- how obnoxious would that be if you were a Bear? -- followed by a more normal feeling Monday Night Football game on the 26th.

With just two weeks to go, no one has everything locked up yet, and so there is a lot of meaningful football to be played.  Lots of fascinating jockeying for position, including a couple of entire divisions that are still wide open (most notably the NFC East and the AFC West).  Great stuff!

As a Packer fan, I suppose the bottom line is pretty simple.  We want to lock up home field advantage through the playoffs.  That simply requires one Packer win in the next two games or one 49er loss in the next two games.   

The only other real issue for us is the “down the road” question: namely, what other teams would we prefer to face or not to face in the postseason?

For example, conventional wisdom was that we were rooting for the Steelers to win in San Francisco last week so that Green Bay would get that #1 seed.  Not me.  I’m pretty confident we’re going to get that seed anyway, and so I was taking the longer view: namely, I would rather have the 49ers get the #2 seed than the Saints.  Accordingly, I’m rooting for (gulp) San Francisco these next two weeks, while pulling against New Orleans.  Why?  Because the Saints scare me.  (And they annoy me a little, too.)

Elsewhere…. It’s possible that the Lions could miss the playoffs.  Does that sound appealing?  They’ve got two very tough games remaining: against the viable and recently-hot Chargers this weekend, followed by the much-ballyhooed visit to Lambeau in Week 17.  Shall I root against them?  I’d like to.  But if they do lose today, they’ll really be necessarily playing to win when they face us next week.  Not sure I’m liking that prospect.

How about the NFC East?  Who do you want to have emerge from that division?  Personally, I’m pulling for the Cowboys.  The Giants have really been struggling, but still they scare me.  And the prospect of the Eagles making it into this year’s playoffs is absolutely intolerable.  Go, Cowboys!

Meanwhile, if the Bears played the Packers today, they’d still have some modicum of playoff hope for which to play.  On the other hand, if a bunch of their closest competitors in the wild card race win today, they’ll have no motivation left but hate when they take to the Frozen Tundra on Christmas night.  Accordingly, I may be rooting for the Lions today -- as well as the Giants, Cowboys, Seahawks, and Cardinals. 

And no matter what happens on Saturday and Sunday, I am definitely a Falcon fan on Monday.

A lot of hype surrounding that game.  It’s a good prime time match-up.  And even more talk surrounding the Cowboys-Eagles, 49ers-Seahawks, and Giants-Jets.  All of those games are really compelling Week 16 contests.  Should be a great football weekend!

Finally, in the most important game, FOX Sports reports that the Bears may be without Devin Hester and Marion Barber.  Wow!  And without Cutler and Forte already, and with a QB who hasn’t thrown an NFL pass since half-past forever, I’m really liking Green Bay’s chances of a big rebound game. 

On the other hand, if the Seahawks beat San Francisco on Saturday, Green Bay will technically have nothing to play for on Sunday.  Except winning.  No more perfection to be achieved… what would you do?

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Chicago Bears,NFL playoffs,Dallas Cowboys,Philadelphia Eagles,New York Giants,Detroit Lions,New Orleans Saints,San Francisco 49ers

Polling the Jury

When the Packers took the field in Week One, the conventional wisdom was that they were the #1 team in the league.  They were, after all, the defending Super Bowl Champions, and they were arguably stronger coming into 2011 than they were when they ended 2010.

For the next 13 games, they won and won and won.  And for as long as they kept winning, their status as the best team in the league remained a given -- an unquestioned assumption.

But now they have lost.  So what now?  Do people still assume that we’re the best?  Or are there too many questions all of a sudden?

Joe Theisman doesn’t think we’re the best anymore.  In fact, he ranks us sixth -- behind the Saints, Patriots, 49ers, Ravens, and Steelers. 

I have read Theisman’s piece, and I think his analysis is sound.  His logic and his conclusions, however, are not.  Among other things, did he see how the Ravens and Steelers looked this past weekend?  I mean if you’re going to base your rankings so heavily on the most recent performance and not as much the whole body of work, how do the Ravens and Steelers rank ahead of us?

As it happens, Theisman stands alone at NFL.com in his assessment. The rest of the analysts there still rank the Packers first in the league.  The folks at ESPN.com still believe we’re #1, as well, and they were unanimous about it.

Meanwhile, after the Chiefs upset Green Bay last Sunday, the talk is predictably out there now about the “blueprint” for beating the Packers.  Bucky Brooks has offered the best analysis that I’ve seen.  That said, Aaron Rodgers offered a different -- and interesting -- take on the whole issue.

Don Banks at SI.com still thinks the Pack is #1, and he is also rather dismissive of the “blueprint” or “recipe” talk:

The Packers offensive line was definitely exposed in Kansas City and its health issues represent a real concern as the playoffs loom. But I always find it amusing how fast everyone wants to claim a "blueprint" has been established after a team's first loss of the season. A relentless pass rush and good coverage in the secondary has always been the "blueprint" for beating an opponent with an elite passing game, and it probably always will. The Chiefs brought both of those to bear on Green Bay last week, but that doesn't necessarily mean everyone else is capable of creating the same dynamic against the Packers.

Finally, NFL.com reports that the Packers hold a different #1 ranking in the NFL… It’s a great read.  America’s Team, Baby!

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Kansas City Chiefs,Joe Theisman,Bucky Brooks,Don Banks,NFL rankings,Aaron Rodgers,Ameria's Team

An Open Letter

Dear Coach Crennel:

I am a diehard Green Bay Packers fan.  Have been for years!  And as such, I am in considerable sports-fan pain today thanks to you and your team.

And I mean that sincerely: thanks to you and your team.  Many thanks!

I recognize that, in more serious issues of life than sports, pain is an unwelcome but important gift.  If we didn’t feel any pain, we wouldn’t recognize certain problems in our bodies, and we wouldn’t get them diagnosed and treated. 

So I recognize the usefulness of pain, and I can see great usefulness in the pain you inflicted on my team this past Sunday.  Now we are forced to reckon with the fact that something is wrong.

Up until Sunday, you see, we had had hints that something was wrong, but we didn’t really have reason to believe it.  For as long as we were winning, we could always say that the bend-but-don’t-break defense was doing just enough, that a running game wasn’t important when we had so many weapons in the passing attack, that no one could match up with our receivers, that Rodgers could always burn the blitz, etc.  For as long as we were winning -- and winning, and winning, and winning -- it was hard to say with a straight face that we feared something was wrong.

But now we know.  Thanks to you!

And while the pain you caused us did cost us a shot at history, it would have been much costlier had it come at someone else’s hands.  How intolerable would it have been if either the Bears or Lions had ruined our perfection?  But we bear no malice toward you, toward Kansas City, toward the Chiefs, or toward their fans. 

And how much worse, indeed, if no one had caused us this pain until the playoffs?!  That would have been bitter, indeed, to be perfect in the regular season and then humiliated in the postseason. 

So I write to thank you.  I am hopeful that we will emerge from the 2011 campaign with a record of 18-1 thanks to the help you provided… but the kind of 18-1 that will make the Patriots envious.

Technorati Tags: Romeo Crennel,Kansas City Chiefs,Green Bay Packers,Aaron Rodgers,NFL playoffs

Oh, the Pain

I’ve never been drunk, but I think I am experiencing my first hangover.

We have been so spoiled for the past twelve months.  We have played brilliantly and blown teams off the field.  And we have also played poorly from time to time, yet still managed enough to win. 

Not this time.  One of the halftime guys said that Packers were sleep-walking.  And, it seems, they never quite woke up.  Perhaps they’ll awaken in the locker room or on the flight home, and they’ll discover that this nightmare is actually reality.

I have heard Aaron Rodgers say a couple of times in interviews this season that no one has come up with the recipe for beating this team.  Well, the Chiefs discovered the recipe, and there are no secret recipes in the NFL.  It’s all on film for every other team to see.  Not that every team will be able to pull it off, of course, but it’s not like Kansas City is the most capable team we’ll face between now and February.  Assuming we get to February.

Eight teams have beaten the Chiefs this year.  They are not one of the league’s juggernauts.  Yet we just couldn’t solve them.

Ironically, I think if we had been up against one of the NFL’s better teams today, we would have won.  But we looked like a team that just kept waiting to turn it on, and we never quite managed to do it.

We all know how long it has been since the Packers last lost, but how long has it been since the defense hasn’t gotten a turnover?  How long since Rodgers has thrown only one TD pass?  How long since the offense has scored fewer than 15 points?  This was wire-to-wire ugly.  It doesn’t have any impact, of course, on our ultimate goal -- i.e., a second consecutive Super Bowl victory -- but it was so easy (and intoxicating!) to get caught up in the 19-0 talk.  Now that’s gone.  We laid an egg.  A big, ugly, smelly egg. 

So, time to sober up.  Time to take a cold, hard look at a defense that gave up 6.3 yards per play to a team that managed just 4 total yards in the first half last week.  Take to slap some glue on Finley’s hands.  And time to consider what seems to be inadequate depth along the offensive line. 

I’m confident that we’ll manage to win the #1 seed and home field advantage through the playoffs.  Beyond that, though, the rest of my confidence has been shaken by a really disappointing performance. 

Oh, the pain!

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Aaron Rodgers,Kansas City Chiefs

Week Fifteen -- A Look Ahead

It’s the most wonderful time of the year! 

That’s mostly because of Christmas, of course, but it’s also a very exciting time to be a football fan.  And especially a Green Bay Packer fan!

Only one of this weekend’s 16 NFL games matches two teams already eliminated from playoff contention (Dolphins at Bills), which means that every other game has meaning and impact.  Great stuff.  And some of those contests are especially intriguing.

ESPN.com offers a very helpful at-a-glance summary of where we’re at right now in terms of playoff seedings.  Meanwhile, SI.com offers a prose summary of what can be clinched during this weekend’s games.

The Houston Texans, one of the great stories of the 2011 season, are clinging to the top seed in the AFC.  New England, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh are all nipping at their heels, though, and with three weeks to go, no one can afford to stumble.  The Texans get the Panthers, Colts, and Titans, which is not a bad road to have to travel.  The Steelers are the most hobbled of the group these days, and they have to play the surprising 49ers on Monday Night Football.  The Ravens, meanwhile, have to travel to San Diego this week, while the Patriots journey into the jaws of Tebowmania. 

That particular AFC match-up is getting the lion’s share of the attention in Week 15.  Every week, folks want to know if Tebow and the Broncos are for real.  The Patriots seem like a worthy litmus test.

The Steeler-49er game, meanwhile, should be a beauty.  Both teams are in tight playoff races, so there will be tremendous urgency on both sides.  San Francisco’s upset at the hands of the Cardinals last week puts them at risk of losing the second seed to the Saints.  Personally, I think I’d rather keep the 49ers in that privileged spot. but since the Saints are certain to blow the Vikings out this Sunday, San Francisco will have to win a tough one against the Steelers on Monday.

No matter what happens with the 49ers and Saints, though, our Packers are almost certainly guaranteed the #1 seed in the NFC.  It’s just a formality now.  And so I find that my rooting turns to other concerns.  Specifically, the teams that stand in the way of 16-0.

I worry a little about the Chiefs.  Not a lot, honestly, but a little.  My concern is simply that they’re playing at home, they have this strange dynamic of an interim head coach, and this has to be their Super Bowl.  They played us close at Lambeau in the preseason.  They have a really solid defense.  And if they can stay close, I think they’ll be energized by the thrilling potential of being the team that knocks us off.  That worries me.  On the other hand, if we can get a good 21-point lead, they don’t have the kind of offense to come back on us, and I think they’ll lay down and die. 

Then we’ll have the Bears on Christmas and the Lions on New Year’s Day.  Fortunately, both games are in the Frozen Tundra, and the atmosphere there should be absolutely crazy as the team pursues perfection in front of the hometown fans. 

I think it would be nice if the Seahawks would beat Chicago this weekend.  That would take perhaps the last gasp of hope out of the Bears before they have to spend Christmas in Green Bay.  And for as excellent as their defense is, without Cutler and Forte on offense, I can’t quite picture them keeping up with us.

Which brings us to the Lions.  Detroit is currently the 6th seed in the NFC, with a trip to Oakland and a visit from the Chargers coming before their game in Green Bay on New Year’s Day.  It’s probably too much to hope that the Lions will be eliminated by the time we play them.  It would be nice, though, if their position was locked in and could not be improved by a win over the Packers.  I’ll be rooting for the Falcons, Giants, and Cowboys accordingly.  (Although, candidly, I’m pulling for the Cowboys to come out of the NFC East rather than the Giants.  I’d much rather have the all-thumbs team from Dallas come into Lambeau in January than the dangerous Giants.) 

Finally, check out this great piece by Don Banks about what the Packers are in the midst of accomplishing.  This is a season to savor, for sure.  A team for the ages.

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Kansas City Chiefs,New England Patriots,Denver Broncos,Tim Tebow,Detroit Lions,Chicago Bears,NFL playoffs,San Francisco 49ers,New Orleans Saints,Dallas Cowboys,New York Giants

Picture Perfect

I took my 11-year-old daughter to her first professional football game this past Sunday, and it was a picture perfect day. 

First, you could hardly ask for a balmier late afternoon or evening in December in Green Bay.  Plus, the crowd was full of good cheer.  And the Packers were almost unbelievably dominant.

I wasn’t sure how much my daughter would enjoy her first in-person game.  The sensations of a first trip to a pro stadium, of course, are the kind of thing you remember for the rest of your life.  But I feared that the relative hum-drum stuff of 3-yard-runs, incomplete passes, punts, and field-position battles might become tedious for a child who doesn’t fully grasp the game yet.

But she does understand touchdowns, and she got to see plenty of those!  One right after another, in fact.  It was such a dominating performance that the Packers seemed like they were simply in a different league -- as though it were pro players taking on a Division III team. 

The offense was a well-oiled machine. The defense was suffocating.  And the Raiders were pathetic.

A great deal of post-game attention was paid to the Greg Jennings injury.  Yet it turned out to be about as minor as possible, and the prevailing football attitude seems to be this: You play to win, and you can’t play scared.  I think, therefore, that it’s going to be full-speed-ahead toward 16-0 in Green Bay. 

Three games left: two are at home, and the remaining road game is against a team that managed 4 yards of offense in the first half this past Sunday.  The game in Kansas City looks like a win.  And while Chicago always plays us tough, the present Bear squad is a badly hobbled group.  I think the perfect season will come down to Week 17 and the Lions’ visit to Lambeau Field.

And I’ll be there -- with another one of my daughters for her first pro football game.

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Oakland Raiders,Kansas City Chiefs,Lambeau Field,Chicago Bears,Detroit Lions

Week Fourteen (and beyond): A Look Ahead

The NFL Network has claimed for itself another scintillating affair this Thursday Night as the woeful Browns head to Pittsburgh for a public beating.  Should be great TV for all Steeler fans. 

And the NFC North race won’t get any clearer, for the Ravens -- who are tied atop the division with Pittsburgh at 9-3 (though Baltimore holds the tie-breaker) -- get to host the winless Colts.  Indy’s only hope here is the occasion inconsistency that marked the Ravens earlier in the season.  Frankly, though, I expect both Baltimore and Pittsburgh to go into Week 15 knotted up at 10-3.

Meanwhile, at the other end of the weekend, ESPN doesn’t have anything much better than the NFL Network again.  Monday night Football this week pits the 2-10 Rams against the 5-7 Seahawks. Not sure how to make that one interesting.

And so, once again this week, it is NBC and the Sunday Night Football crew who get the good contest.  The 6-6 Giants are spiraling downward with four consecutive losses.  On the other hand, they looked awfully good against Green Bay, and so they head into Sunday Night with reason to feel good about themselves.  Their opponents -- and chief competition in the NFC East, the Dallas Cowboys -- do not have reason to feel good about themselves, however.  They mangled the end of last week’s disastrous loss to the Cardinals, and I have to think that there are some lingering issues there.  Does the coach trust his quarterback?  And, after last Sunday, will the team trust their coach?  A few years back (before he actually became a head coach, that is), Jason Garrett was the golden child.  Right now, he’s the kid in the corner with the dunce cap on.

The Giants and Cowboys play each other twice in these final five weeks, and so each team has its fate very much in its own hands.

Meanwhile, those same Cardinals who upset the Cowboys get to futz with the NFC playoff picture again this weekend when they host the 49ers.  San Francisco has locked up the NFC West, but their playoff seeding is still very much in question.  Can they catch up with the Packers from two games behind?  Probably not.  But the Saints, who are only one game behind the 49ers, can certainly catch San Francisco for that coveted #2 seed.  So both teams have to keep their pedal to the metal -- and no one has been doing that better lately than the Saints.

New Orleans heads to Tennessee this week to play a team that has really begun to pull itself together in recent weeks.  I wouldn’t give the Titans a chance if the game were being played in New Orleans.  And I don’t even give them much of a chance playing at home.  Still, the truth is that the Saints should face a somewhat tougher test this week than the 49ers.

Elsewhere, the Falcons have put themselves in an interesting position.  As we mentioned earlier, all the mid-level teams in the NFC lost last week, and several of the third-tier teams won, giving the latter an extra glimmer of hope.  So it is that the 4-8 Panthers actually have something besides pride to play for when they host the stumbling Falcons.  This could be an interesting battle: perhaps a contest between the past and the future of the NFC South.

Meanwhile, was it Bill Parcells who always said that you are what your record is?  I think that analysis requires more nuance, for one of this Sunday’s match-ups features the 4-8 Dolphins playing the 4-8 Eagles.  They have the same records, but they are not at all the same teams.  Miami has played hard and been competitive every week, including a significant upset or two.  The Eagles, on the other hand, have been the poster child for an underperforming and troubled unit.  I suspect Philly has more talent, but I expect Miami to win the game.

The Lions and Bears both lost last week, and so they remain tied at 7-5.  The wild card race is a pretty crowded field.  The Bears have been ruined by injuries to major players, while the Lions are practically in a free-fall.  Someone has to turn it around, and I’m guessing that (for one week, at least) it will be Detroit.  The Vikings come to town this Sunday, and I just don’t think they have enough going for them this season to get the job done.  The Bears, on the other hand, have to take what’s left of their team to Denver to face Tebow-mania.  I’m still not sure how good the Broncos are.  They were sure awful in Lambeau a number of weeks ago!  But they’re hot now, they’re tied for first in their division, and they’re hosting a team that managed only 3 points against the Chiefs last week. 

Finally, we come to the game of greatest significance to us -- the Oakland Raiders’ visit to Lambeau Field.  Green Bay allows 4 fewer points per game and scores 12 more points per game.  The Packers just won in New York while the Raiders just lost in Miami.  Green Bay has won 5 more games this season than Oakland, and they’re playing at home, while the Raiders are on-the-road for the second week in a road.  In short, all arrows point toward a Packer win. 

I have no doubt that if both teams played their best game, Green Bay would win.  And I think we’ve demonstrated that even when we do not play our best game, we still win.  And so, while I can’t predict whether we’ll play up to our potential this Sunday, I do fully expect us to win.  Lucky 13, baby!

TEAM	14	15	16	17	%
GB 12-0	OAK 7-5	KC 5-7	CHI 7-5	DET 7-5	.542
SF 10-2	ARI 5-7	PIT 9-3	SEA 5-7	STL 2-10	.437
DET 7-5	MIN 2-10	OAK 7-5	SD 5-7	GB 12-0	.542
CHI 7-5	DEN 7-5	SEA 5-7	GB 12-0	MIN 2-10	.542
NO 9-3	TEN 7-5	MIN 2-10	ATL 7-5	CAR 4-8	.417
ATL 7-5	CAR 4-8	JAX 3-9	NO 9-3	TB 4-8	.417
DAL 7-5	NYG 6-6	TB 4-8	PHI 4-8	NYG 6-6	.417
NYG 6-6	DAL 7-5	WASH 4-8	NYJ 7-5	DAL 7-5	.521

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Oakland Raiders,Denver Broncos,Chicago Bears,Tim Tebow,San Francisco 49ers,Arizona Cardinals,New York Giants,Dallas Cowboys,Atlanta Falcons,Carolina Panthers,Philadelphia Eagles,Miami Dolphins,New Orleans Saints,Tennessee Titans

The Rich Get Richer, and…

Let us divide the NFC into four tiers, according to record. 

The top tier features three teams: the undefeated Packers, the San Francisco 49ers, and the New Orleans Saints.

The second tier, in my judgment, includes those teams that have been the other frontrunners in the NFC playoff race:  the Cowboys and Giants in the East, the Lions and Bears in the North, and the Falcons in the South. 

Meanwhile, there are two bottom-feeders in the NFC: the St. Louis Rams and Minnesota Vikings, both limping along at 2-8.

But then there is that third tier group.  These are the teams that looked to be the 2011 also-rans: teams that don’t stink, but are wallowing below .500.  These are the Seahawks, Cardinals, Eagles, Panthers, Redskins, and Buccaneers.

Here is the fascinating thing about Week 13.  The top tier teams all won (as they should, of course).  But all five of those second tier teams lost!  That’s amazing.  Teams with so much on the line, so much to lose, and yet they all lost.  Not only did that coincidence of wins and losses put more distance between the top teams and their heel-nippers, it also allowed the third-tier teams to close the gap a bit.

The Seahawks, Cardinals, and Panthers all won in Week 13, and suddenly they have moved from “also ran” to “in the running.”  Consider the chart below, reflecting the number of wins for the NFC teams that haven’t yet clinched (Green Bay and San Francisco) but are in the hunt:

4	5	6	7	8	9
PHI	SEA	NYG	DALL		NO
CAR	ARI		CHI
WASH			ATL
TB			DET

The four teams at 7-5, along with the Giants at 6-6, have put themselves in an inexcusably vulnerable position.  And the Seahawks and Cardinals find themselves with a lot to play for this weekend -- a lot more than one would have expected back on Thanksgiving.

So whether the Packers can stay perfect is not the only storyline in the NFC during the fourth quarter of the season.  The battle to lose the East is compelling, as are Detroit’s free-fall and Atlanta’s disappointment.  And, amidst it all, there are those pesky Seahawks, who snuck into the second round of last year’s playoffs, and who may emerge to upset someone more worthy again this year.

Well beyond the scope of this chart, meanwhile, are our Packers.  More about their nail-biting victory in the next post.

Technorati Tags: Dallas Cowboys,Chicago Bears,Atlanta Falcons,Detroit Lions,New York Giants,Seattle Seahawks,Arizona Cardinals,Carolina Panthers

Week Thirteen (and beyond): A Look Ahead

Three primetime games are on tap for Week 13, but 13 turns out to be an unlucky number for two of those three networks.

On Thursday Night, the NFL Network will feature the 4-7 Eagles playing the 4-7 Seahawks.  I suppose it will be pitched as a high-intensity, must-win game for both teams.  In truth, it’s just a couple of also-rans who are competing for the title of “most disappointing team in 2011.”  The Seahawks, you recall, went to the second round of last year’s NFC playoffs, and the Eagles were being heralded as this year’s “dream team.”  Instead, the conversation will be all about the speculations surrounding Vince Young, Michael Vick, and Andy Reid.

On Monday Night, meanwhile, ESPN will boast the 4-7 Chargers visiting the 3-8 Jaguars.  San Diego is also in the running for the “most disappointing” award, while Jacksonville is now all about potential coaching candidates for 2012.  It’s the hot seat vs. the empty seat on Monday Night Football.  Woo-hoo!

By contrast, the Sunday Night game on NBC is arguably the best game of the week.  It’s the Lions in New Orleans -- two teams in the thick of the NFC playoff race; two teams who, in different ways, both need this win; and yet two teams that are in very different places.  After a super-hot start, the Lions have been spiraling downward, and now they’re without their best defensive player for two punitive weeks.  The Saints, meanwhile, are looking like a championship-quality team.  Detroit needs it more, but the Saints are at home and playing better. 

In a way, the Lions and Giants are in parallel positions.  Both are NFC playoff hopefuls, but both have been losing more than winning of late.  And now they swap opponents. 

Last week, the Lions were dominated by the high-power Packers, while the Giants had their doors blown off by the high-power Saints.  Now, this week, the Giants host the Packers while the Lions visit the Saints.  In a sense, neither team needs to do a ton of additional preparation this week: they’re just facing more of the same.  

Another parallel pair is the Chiefs and Bears.  Both have lost their starting QBs, both have suffered through abysmal performances by their back-ups, and both have defenses that still keep them in each game.  And now they play one another.  Should be fascinating, and it will probably come down to which QB throws fewer INTs.

Tim Tebow should be able to notch another win in Minnesota.  The Colts and Patriots is going to be a bitter reminder to Indy fans how far they have fallen.  And the Bengals and Steelers will be a huge AFC North battle with tremendous playoff implications.

Meanwhile, in the NFC playoff race, the Cowboys should take a step forward against the 3-7 Cardinals.  Likewise, the 49ers should return to the winner’s circle against the 2-8 Rams.  The Falcons, on the other hand, face a tougher (though hobbled) opponent in Houston. 

Finally, the Packers head to New York.  Naturally I’m a bit worried, for the Giants are notorious for ruining perfect seasons.  Also, they have the potential to be a great team, and Eli Manning is showing his excellence.  On the other hand, it’s short week vs. long week and it’s cold vs. hot.  Plus, the Giants will be without Osi Umenyiora.  And Aaron Rodgers is right: they haven’t found the recipe for beating this Packer team yet. 

I have reproduced below an updated chart reflecting the playoff picture for the NFC’s serious contestants.  And here is a helpful explanation of where everyone stands and what can happen this weekend.  

TEAM	13	14	15	16	17	%
GB 11-0	NYG 6-5	OAK 7-4	KC 4-7	CHI 7-4	DET 7-4	.564
SF 9-2	STL 2-9	ARI 4-7	PIT 8-3	SEA 4-7	STL 2-9	.364
DET 7-4	NO 8-3	MIN 2-9	OAK 7-4	SD 4-7	GB 11-0	.582
CHI 7-4	KC 4-7	DEN 6-5	SEA 4-7	GB 11-0	MIN 2-9	.491
NO 8-3	DET 7-4	TEN 6-5	MIN 2-9	ATL 7-4	CAR 3-8	.454
ATL 7-4	HOU 8-3	CAR 3-8	JAX 3-8	NO 8-3	TB 4-7	.472
DAL 7-4	ARI 4-7	NYG 6-5	TB 4-7	PHI 4-7	NYG 6-5	.436
NYG 6-5	GB 11-0	DAL 7-4	WASH 4-7	NYJ 6-5	DAL 7-4	.636

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,New York Giants,San Francisco 49ers,Detroit Lions,Chicago Bears,New Orleans Saints,Kansas City Chiefs,Atlanta Falcons,Dallas Cowboys,Indianapolis Colts,New England Patriots,Philadelphia Eagles,Seattle Seahawks,San Diego Chargers,Jacksonville Jaguars,Tim Tebow,Minnesota Vikings,Cincinnati Bengals,Pittsburgh Steelers

A Boy Named Suh… and Other Hits

Well, some highly regarded teams can go on the road and beat 7-3 opponents, and some can’t. 

The Packers’ game was a thing of beauty.  I was admittedly tense throughout the first half, and yet I began to feel a strange sense of calm during halftime.  As I reflected back on the first half of play, you see, I reasoned it this way:  which of those two teams had significant room for improvement in the second half?  Without a doubt, it was the Packers. 

The Lions had played a really solid first half, but we hadn’t seen the Packers play like the Packers yet.  And yet, even so, Green Bay led the game 7-0.  I didn’t think Detroit could play a lot better in the second half, but I knew Green Bay could, and so I felt certain that in the end the game would be ours.

And it was.

Rodgers and the offense found the gas pedal, while the defense continued what has been their standard M.O. during this grand winning streak:  ball-hawking opportunism, and a bend-but-don’t-break mindset. 

Dom Capers’ crew doesn’t force enough three-and-outs for my taste.  And yet, somehow, it doesn’t matter.  They keep getting the job done, and there seems to be this synergistic recognition that the offense can always score more points than the defense is giving up.

The Lions managed some garbage yardage and points at the end.  And perhaps the true believers in Detroit thought that this was going to be yet another miraculous comeback.  In truth, however, I suspect that if the game had been 30 minutes longer, we just would have beaten them by more.  Because guess what:  We really are the better team!

One of the ways that the Packers are better -- and I believe you have to give a lot of credit to Thompson, McCarthy, Rodgers, and Woodson for this -- is because we have better guys.  I don’t just mean better athletes, better players.  We have better people.  Character guys, and a pervasive team atmosphere that produces a kind of cool professionalism which is clearly missing in Detroit.

We can illustrate the point this way…  When people around the country think of the Packers, who comes first to their minds?  Aaron Rodgers.  But when people around the country think of the Lions, who comes first to their minds?  For a lot of folks, I’m guessing the answer is Ndakumong Suh.  Suh is increasingly the face -- and the reputation -- of the Lions.  And therein lies a critical difference between Green Bay and Detroit.

The Suh incident in the 3rd quarter is getting a lot of attention.  And for as bad as his on-field actions were, his post-game nonsense may have been even worse.  Even my 8-year-old understood what she was seeing.  “A little anger management,” she remarked as the Suh episode was replayed.  And the pundits are all over Suh today for his unwillingness to own up to his errors or his problem. 

What happens next in Detroit will be a real reflection on the principles and leadership of Jim Shwartz.  And what happens next in the league office may be devastating to Detroit’s playoff chances.

Meanwhile, those chances were dealt a serious blow there at Ford Field on Thursday.  They are now 4 games behind the Packers -- a separation no one could have imagined when both squads were 5-0.  Add to that the facts that the Lions have lost 4 of their last 6 games, that they go into this Sunday a half-game behind the Bears in the Division, and that they’re heading to New Orleans to play the Saints next Sunday Night.  Things look pretty grim right now for the team that was shaping up to be 2011’s Cinderella story.

The other 2011 Cinderella also came out of Thursday looking a little smudged.  Things aren’t nearly so bad for the 49ers as for the Lions, of course.  They’ll make the playoffs.  But their 6-point effort in Baltimore definitely takes some of the bloom off their rose. 

The writers and talkers keep trying to find some team to treat like a threat to the Packers.  At the beginning, of course, it was the Saints, but we dispatched that pretty quickly.  Likewise the Falcons.  Now the Lions.  And the 49ers have removed themselves from that conversation a little bit now, too. 

I suppose they’ll start talking about the Giants now.  Not because the Giants are really better, but because the Packers have to play them next, and they have (ironically) developed the reputation of being giant killers. 

And Packers will start talking about the Giants now, too, as they take aim at their next goal: 12-0.  

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Detroit Lions,Ndamukong Suh,San Francisco 49ers,Aaron Rodgers

Week Twelve (and beyond): A Look Ahead

For the past two weeks, I have been slow about looking at the upcoming match-ups, for I have missed the Thursday games.  But that’s not going to happen this week!

The Packers kickoff Week 12 in the NFL with their much-anticipated trip to Detroit.  Not long ago, the Packers and Lions were the only undefeated teams in the league, and the expectation was that this might be a battle of unbeatens on Thanksgiving Day. 

Well, we held up our end of the bargain.

In a sense, the dynamics of this particular match-up are more dangerous for us now than if both teams had come in at 10-0.  For as it stands now, the Lions need it even more, and the Packers need it somewhat less.  Also, I think the Lions are an angrier, more resentful, more emotionally motivated team than they would have been at 10-0.

Which brings us to a consideration of the larger landscape: the larger landscape of our own remaining schedule and of our closest competitors in the Conference. 

Let us assume that the Packers will win the NFC North.  It’s not a given, but the odds are heavily in our favor.  Also, we’ll concede that the 49ers will win the NFC West -- and will be the only team from that loser division to make the postseason.  The Giants and Cowboys are both vying for the NFC East title.  The Saints and Falcons are going at it in the South.  And the Lions and Bears are leading the wild card hunt.  I don’t mean to discount the Eagles, Bucs, and others prematurely, but for the sake of simplicity, we’ll say that there are eight legitimate teams trying to earn six spots.  Which of those teams would you like to see miss the cut?  Which ones would you rather not face in the playoffs?  I’ll stick a survey on the right side so we can take a poll.

Meanwhile, here is a chart that reflects the remaining schedules for all eight of those teams. 

TEAM	12	13	14	15	16	17	%
GB 10-0	DET 7-3	NY 6-4	OAK 6-4	KC 4-6	CHI 7-3	DET 7-3	.616
SF 9-1	BAL 7-3	STL 2-8	ARI 3-7	PIT 7-3	SEA 4-6	STL 2-8	.416
DET 7-3	GB 10-1	NO 7-3	MIN 2-8	OAK 6-4	SD 4-6	GB 10-1	.650
CHI 7-3	OAK 6-4	KC 4-6	DEN 5-5	SEA 4-6	GB 10-1	MIN 2-8	.516
NO 7-3	NY 6-4	DET 7-3	TEN 5-5	MIN 2-8	ATL 6-4	CAR 2-8	.466
ATL 6-4	MIN 2-8	HOU 7-3	CAR 2-8	JAX 3-7	NO 7-3	TB 4-6	.416
DAL 6-4	MIA 3-7	ARI 3-7	NY 6-4	TB 4-6	PHI 4-6	NY 6-4	.433
NY 6-4	NO 7-3	GB 10-0	DAL 6-4	WASH 3-7	NYJ 5-5	DAL 6-4	.616

As you can see, the Packers have one of the toughest rows to hoe.  Also, you’ll note that the Bears have an edge on the Lions in terms of strength of schedule, although now that Jay Cutler is down and out, the advantage is small comfort to Chicago fans. And, finally, the 49ers have an unforgivably easy schedule, which will keep the heat on Green Bay if we want to keep home field advantage.

We’ll return to our date with Detroit in a moment.  Meanwhile, the other two Thanksgiving Day games are also real winners. The Dolphins play in Dallas and the Ravens host the 49ers.  Great stuff!

A few weeks ago, no one would have cherished a Dolphins-in-Dallas game, but both teams have gotten hot, and now it should be a pretty interesting contest.  The Cowboys are tied for first with the Giants, and so they’ve got that unique brand of urgency and intensity at work for them.  The Dolphins, meanwhile, don’t have any realistic postseason hopes.  Yet, still, they seem to be a remarkably motivated team.  I’m not sure what they’re playing for, but they’ve been playing fairly well all season.  And now they’re winning, which makes them a threat to the Cowboys’ ambitions. 

The Thursday night match-up on NFL Network, meanwhile, will also be a real beauty.  It’s the first meeting of the Harbaugh brothers, which has a certain fascination.  But even without that factor, it’s an important game for each and a great test for both. 

The Ravens are in a hotly-contest divisional battle, which the 49ers are not.  But San Francisco has their eye cast on a higher goal, and they are in the same one-game-behind situation in the Conference that the Ravens are in their division.  Neither team can afford to lose a step. 

Furthermore, the question is just how good each team really is. On some days, the Ravens look like they could beat anybody.  On other days, yuck.  And the 49ers have rolled up an impressive record in 2011, to be sure, but they’re in a lousy division and I still wonder if they can really be that much better than they were in 2010. 

Naturally, I am a Ravens fan on Thursday night, and I like their chances at home.

Come Sunday, the Bears’ trip to Oakland is an interesting prospect.  The Raiders seem reborn, and they appear to be the best team in their year’s AFC West (which is a complete surprise to me).  The Bears, meanwhile, are going to have to learn to win without Jay Cutler.  And in the tight race for NFC wild card berths, they can’t afford to stumble. Tough moment for Chicago. 

Meanwhile, speaking of the AFC West, the Broncos head to San Diego in the next weekly installment of the Tim Tebow jury deliberations.  And the Chargers, on the other hand, have to move quickly in order to salvage a terribly disappointing season.  A divisional loss at home at this stage of the game would be devastating.

Perhaps the best game of a very good week (apart from the Packers-Lion, that is) is the Giants against the Saints.  New York is coming off a tough and surprising loss at home to the Eagles, but still they have a share of first in their division.  The Saints are also atop their division, but with the Falcons close behind.  And, of course, beyond their individual divisional races, this game has postseason implications for playoff seedings and home field advantages.  I’m not sure for whom to root in this contest.  I don’t expect either team to catch Green Bay; if I feared that, I’d root for the Saints since we already have the head-to-head over them.  Perhaps that will be my default.  Whatever the case, we face the Giants next, so perhaps what I’m really rooting for is a long, grueling, draining, physical, overtime game. 

But the piece de resistance of Week 12 is the Packers’ trip to Detroit on Thanksgiving Day.  The Lions not only beat but beat up the Packers there last year.  Things seemed pretty ominous for Green Bay after that Sunday. 

I have no doubt that the Lions are capable of beating the Packers, but I am not convinced about just how good a team they are, top to bottom.  If football were baseball -- and I’m glad that it’s not -- I would have no doubt that Green Bay would take a 5 or 7 game series from these Lions.  Just one game, though, in Detroit, on Thanks-giving, with the Packers coming to the end of a tough three-game stretch…?  I’m a little worried. 

On the other hand, I was fascinated to see how a whole bevvy of experts at NFL.com have ranked all the teams in the league.  The Packers are the unanimous #1, which is fun to just sit and contemplate.  Interestingly, though, no one ranks the Detroit Lions higher than #10!  Also, two of the Lions’ three losses have come at home, so it’s not like they are invincible there. 

The only thing, in my judgment, that could cost us this game is inadequate O-line play. If they can’t establish the run or protect Rodgers, then we’ll be in trouble. But if the front line can do a respectable job, I earnestly believe that our offensive weapons will produce big points, that our defense will make plays, and that our special teams will come up with what’s needed at key points along the way. 

As I have expressed before, this Packers squad seems to be a team of consummate professionals. They just go about their business; and their primary business is winning. For all the apprehension I feel about Thursday’s game, therefore, I can tell that I expect the Packers to win, for I will be genuinely surprised if they lose. 

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Detroit Lions,NFL playoffs,San Francisco 49ers,Baltimore Ravens,Dallas Cowboys,Miami Dolphins,Chicago Bears,Oakland Raiders,Denver Broncos,San Diego Chargers,Tim Tebow,New York Giants,New Orleans Saints

A Riddle

What destination has been reached, is nearer, and is a very long way away?  Think about it, and we’ll return to the answer in a few moments.

It’s hard to know how to characterize Sunday’s win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

Was it a great accomplishment?  Aaron Rodgers finally beat a team that he hadn’t been able to yet.  We endured another ‘best effort’ from a team for whom we are their Super Bowl.  Rodgers added another 3 TDs to his already gaudy stats, Tramon Williams got a couple of picks, and Randall Cobb continues to develop into a marvelous weapon. 

Or, on the other hand, was Sunday’s win a narrow escape?  The Packers were ahead by just two points with less than three minutes to play.  And we wouldn’t even have had that two-point cushion if it hadn’t been for a barely excusable drop in the end zone by Winslow.  The Bucs managed to absorb our first big blows, spotting us an early 14-point lead, and yet they didn’t wilt.  They hung in, kept coming back at us, and gave the defending champions a scare at home. 

Or, on yet another hand, was it a one-arm-tied-behind-my-back sort of a victory.  The Packers were playing on a short week, with an even shorter one ahead.  This was a team -- and a game -- they had reason to look past.  One sensed that the Packers were not playing with a full 60 minutes of energy and intensity.  And yet, with a minimalist effort, they dispatched another NFL team to run to 10-0, equaling the win total for all of the 2010 regular season.

Whatever you and I make of Sunday’s strange win, evidently our quarterback was not happy with it.  I admire his high standards. And I imagine that that is precisely the serious attitude that is setting the pace for the rest of the team. 

I think, too, that Lombardi himself would have appreciated Rodgers’ post-game grimace.  According to stories I have heard, he was often hardest on his team after a victory, identifying what could have been done better and demanding that it be better next time out. 

Meanwhile, as the Packer quarterback takes us back to the late 1950s, the Buccaneer quarterback takes us back to the mid 1970s.  What’s the deal with Josh Freeman’s hair?  Did you see him on the sideline with his helmet off?  He looks like he should be in Mr. Kotter’s class -- he’s one of the Sweathogs!

Well, back to our riddle.  What destination has been reached, is nearer, and is a very long way away?  The answer:  16-0.

With Sunday’s win, the Packers have now won sixteen consecutive games, dating back to last season.  And, with that win, we are also one step closer to the other 16-0 that everyone is talking about: the perfect season in 2011.  And yet, for as well as we’ve played and as much as we’ve accomplished, the remaining schedule is a beast.  Six more games, and only one of those opponents does not have a winning record. 

We’ll give more thought in our next post to the comparative difficulty of several key teams’ schedules heading down the stretch.  And when we see it, it will likely cool our optimistic talk about 16-0.  In the meantime, we’ll adopt the sobriety of McCarthy, Rodgers, & Co., being content for now to achieve 11-0. 

Technorati Tags: Aaron Rodgers,Green Bay Packers,Tampa Bay Buccaneers,Josh Freeman,Vince Lombardi,Tramon Williams,Randall Cobb

Week Eleven: A Look Ahead

Once again, I did not start looking ahead until part of the week was behind me.  The Jets and Broncos met in Denver on the NFL Network on Thursday Night Football to kickoff Week 11.  And it was a fine start to the weekend’s slate of games, as once again Tim Tebow managed to play badly and win the game. 

Tebow is something of an enigma for both his advocates and his opponents.  The former can’t argue that he is a good quarterback by any standard definition.  Yet the latter are having a more and more difficult time denying that he is a winner. 

He’s not my quarterback and the Broncos are decidedly not my team, but I do know this from a distance: in the final analysis, it’s about wins and losses.  And thus far into the 2011 Tebow experiment, Denver is 4-1. 

Now looking ahead to Sunday, the most interesting match-up is probably the Bengals’ trip to Baltimore.  Both teams are coming off losses, and both are chasing the Steelers.  The two teams sport identical records yet inverse expectations.  Everyone knows the Ravens are good, but they have been painfully inconsistent.  The Bengals, conversely, are credited with having a good season, but have not yet persuaded the world that they’re actually a good team. 

The other interesting game (apart from the teams that actually matter to us, that is) is the Bills-Dolphins.  They are not only divisional rivals, but they are two teams heading in opposite directions.  A few weeks ago, you’d have said this was no contest.  Now?  We shall see.

In terms of teams and games that do matter to Packer fans, we start with the 49ers.  It would be nice to see them lose a game, but they do play in the high school division of the NFL.  Cardinals have a little momentum, but it’s hard to imagine them upsetting the 49ers in San Francisco.  Still, on any given Sunday….

The Vikings will try to regain their dignity as they host the Raiders.  Oakland is looking good this season, and I expect it will be yet another “L” for Minnesota.  How long ago must the 2009 NFC Championship Game seem for Viking fans?!

The truly interesting story in our Division is the race-for-second between the Bears and Lions.  Chicago is on a

game winning streak, while the Lions have dropped 3 of their last 4. 

The Bears look to continue their winning ways as they host the struggling Chargers.  I’m not sure Chicago is actually better, but they are certainly playing better.  I expect them to advance to 7-3.

The Lions are also playing at home, hosting the Carolina Panthers.  I’m quite sure that Detroit is better.  I’m not sure, however, that they’ll win this game.  This year’s Lions strike me as an immature team -- more passionate than professional.  I think that they’re struggling with a lot of distractions, and I can imagine them looking past the Panthers because of the big match-up with the Packers just four days later. 

Those Packers, meanwhile, face exactly the same challenge.  They, too, are playing at home against an inferior opponent.  And so it’s easy to imagine Green Bay looking past Tampa Bay because of the important of Thursday’s game in Detroit.

No, let me qualify that.  It’s easy to imagine some Green Bay teams looking past Tampa Bay because of Thursday’s game.  But not this year’s team.  I believe this squad is focused, professional, and businesslike.  Honestly, they remind me of the Patriots at their best a few years ago.  The Packers are coming off their best all-around performance of the season on Monday Night against the Vikings, and I expect them to build on that at the Bucs’ expense. 

So I’m going to go out on a limb here… I think that when we meet the Lions on Thanksgiving Day, we’ll be four games ahead of Detroit in the NFC North. 

Technorati Tags: Denver Broncos,Tim Tebow,Baltimore Ravens,Cincinnati Bengals,Detroit Lions,Carolina Panthers,Minnesota Vikings,Oakland Raiders,Buffalo Bills,Miami Dolphins,Arizona Cardinals,San Francisco 49ers,San Diego Chargers,Chicago Bears,Tampa Bay Buccaneers,Green Bay Packers

What, Me Worry?

I must confess that as I made my way to Lambeau Field on Monday Night, I was apprehensive.  Anything can happen in the Division, I thought to myself.  Ponder looked awfully poised and confident the last time we saw him.  Minnesota has had an extra week to prepare.  This is their Super Bowl.  Adrian Peterson might gash us with runs, and that will set up the pass against our porous backfield.  Aaron Rodgers has to have an off-night sometime, doesn’t he? 

And so on and so on.

I rode the bus from near my residence out to the stadium, and I tell you that Green Bay is a happy place these days!  (Happy to the point of tipsy in some cases.)  And the excited fans are coming here from all over.  Next to me on the bus was a couple who drove over from Eau Claire, and across from me was a couple that had driven up from Racine. 

The stadium was packed and raucous.  No one else seemed to be haunted by the doubts that I was having.  Rather, there was a grand confidence in the air, right down to the sassy signs people were sporting (e.g., “No real man looks good in purple,” and such).

And it turns out that that air of confidence was well-justified.  The Packers absolutely dominated the visiting Vikings.  From Randall Cobb’s early punt return for a touchdown, the game never felt close.  Starks ran the ball with determination, the special teams play was solid, Rodgers was characteristically precise, and the defense… oh, my! 

This looked more like the defense that we saw down the stretch last year.  They held the Vikings to a measly seven points -- and even those only came because Cobb accidentally gave Minnesota the ball inside the Green Bay 15 yard line.  I was very encouraged by the play of our defense this week.  And Charles Woodson was a monster.

The fact is that the only real grief I felt during the game was how much pressure Minnesota was getting on Rodgers and how often he was getting hit.  But future opponents will take small comfort in that seeming vulnerability, for even with all of that harassment, Rodgers still threw 4 TDs, no INTs, and completed over 70% of his passes.  Amazing.

So now we’re 9-0.  We are the defending champs.  And we are the undisputed best team with the almost embarrassingly best quarter-back in the league.  All the arguments are about second-best; but no one doubts who is #1. 

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Monday Night Football,Lambeau Field,Aaron Rodgers,Randall Cobb,Christian Ponder,Adrian Peterson,Charles Woodson,Minnesota Vikings

Sunday Survey

It was the NBA that coined “I Love This Game” as its marketing motto a few years ago.  It was catchy, but I could never really get behind it, ‘cause I don’t love that game.

But on this November Sunday afternoon, watching NFL games and their highlights, I’m thinking to myself, “Now this game I love!” 

Did you see the end of the Saint-Falcon game?  Mike Smith is not as mature as his hair color suggests.  I suppose you can make that kind of decision during the course of a game; but not in overtime.  Now his Falcons -- Peter King’s preseason pick to win it all, you recall -- are two games behind the Saints.  And if the season ended today, they’d be on the outside looking in.

Speaking of teams that are only going to make the playoffs in the August predictions, how ‘bout them Eagles?  The same team that absolutely had their way with the Cowboys on national TV a couple of weeks back managed today to lose at home to the Cardinals. The Cardinals!  They haven’t been any good since Kurt Warner retired.  Arizona came into the game at 2-6, and they beat Michael Hype and the Dream Team in Philly.  Amazing. 

Look at the standings.  Do you see any way that the Eagles can make the playoffs now, short of a handful of other NFC teams inexplicably surrendering?  When the sports writers hand out their end-of-the-year awards come January, Andy Reid & Co. will be frontrunners for “Most Disappointing.”

BTW, the Eagles have won only one more game than the Miami Dolphins so far in 2011. 

Elsewhere, the much-maligned Tim Tebow completed just two passes on Sunday.  And won!  He threw just eight times and gained only 69 yards through the air.  Meanwhile, his Carolina counterpart, Cam Newton, threw the ball 40 times and lost at home to the Titans.

The Tebow-Newton comparison is an interesting one.  They were both winning quarterbacks in college who had question marks on their games coming into the NFL.  Both are mobile quarterbacks who are given more credit for their legs than their arms.  Right from his impressive Week One debut this year, though, Newton caught the pundits’ imagination, and he has enjoyed good publicity and great expectations ever since.  Tebow, however, is mostly ridiculed, and his fans are forced to defend him.

But Tebow has started 4 games this season and won 3.  Newton has started 9 games and won 2.  

Make no mistake, the Broncos stink.  But at this moment, they are tied with the Chargers and Chiefs, just one game behind the division-leader Raiders.  I won’t pretend that that’s because of Tebow’s arm, but I do believe that it’s because of Tebow.

And then there were the Bears and the Lions.  For the second week in a row, I was a Bears fan, and for the second week in a row they came through for me in impressive fashion.  Chicago is looking pretty tough all of a sudden.  I’m glad we’ve already played and beaten them in Chicago this season.

The Lions, meanwhile, looked like delicate hothouse flowers there in the Soldier Field environment -- especially Bobby Brady Stafford.  Fortunately for Jim Schwartz, Lovie Smith is too much of a gentle-man to give the kind of over-the-top handshake that Schwartz endured from Harbaugh a few weeks ago.  But it was the same sort of defeat for the Lions, nonetheless. 

So we’ll go into tomorrow night’s game against the Vikings with the possibility of taking a 3-game lead in the Division.  And the Lions, meanwhile, have lost 3 of their last 4.  It wasn’t long ago that people were talking about a match-up of 10-0 teams on Thanksgiving Day, with the winner claiming first place in the NFC North.  Instead, however, the Lions are all tangled up with the Bears in a surprising battle for second place. 

This is no laughing matter for Detroit, by the way.  Take a look at the Bears’ and Lions’ remaining schedules: Which one would you rather play?

WEEK	BEARS	LIONS
11	Chargers	Panthers
12	@ Raiders	Packers
13	Chiefs	@ Saints
14	@ Broncos	Vikings
15	Seahawks	@ Raiders
16	@ Packers	Chargers
17	@ Vikings	@ Packers

Take out the common remaining opponents, and the Bears face the Chiefs, Broncos, and Seahawks where the Lions will play the Panthers, Packers, and Saints.  The team that was noted for ending 2010 so strong must be wondering if 2011 will be the year of the late-season collapse.

Finally, the Ravens.  Who can explain the team that blows the doors off Pittsburgh in Week One in Baltimore and then also manages to come back to beat them in Pittsburgh in Week Nine, only to suffer bad losses at the hands of teams like the Jaguars and Seahawks?  We have seen how great they can be, but they have not managed to show up every week.

This is the great virtue of the 2011 Packers.  They do show up every week.  At home and on the road; against good teams and bad; in the division and out of the conference; whether close or lopsided, the Packers have shown up week after week. 

And we’re counting on them to show up again on Monday Night.  With just two wins, the Vikings have nothing to play for but this.  This is their Super Bowl.  That fact and Adrian Peterson are the only things that worry me.

Technorati Tags: Detroit Lions,Chicago Bears,New Orleans Saints,Atlanta Falcons,Tim Tebow,Denver Broncos,Kansas City Chiefs,Philadelphia Eagles,Arizona Cardinals,Andy Reid,Michael Vick,Cam Newton,Carolina Panthers,Minnesota Vikings