All I Want For…

Well, Christmas is past, and so I am left to make my wish list for Week 17.  All I want for the NFC playoffs is…

Six NFC teams will make the postseason, and four of those have already punched their tickets: the Falcons, Packers, 49ers, and Seahawks.  Meanwhile, five teams remain in the hunt for the final two slots: the Redskins, Vikings, Bears, Cowboys, and Giants.

As I ponder all of the playoff scenarios, I begin by ranking those remaining teams in order of preference.  Not likability, or which teams I would more or less prefer to see raise the Lombardi Trophy at the end.  No, at this point my motivation is more fear than anything.  I will be rooting for the teams that I feel more confident about the Packers being able to beat.

Of that class of five, my highest confidence level is with the Bears.  I simply don’t think they’re that good, and I haven’t all year.  They haven’t beaten a good team yet, and we have handled them rather easily in both of our 2012 encounters.  I would rather see the Bears come into Lambeau in January than any of the other four.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, are a close second for me.  I think they have the potential to be the Keystone Kops, and I don’t think they would handle well Lambeau Field in the playoffs.

The other three teams, meanwhile, make me nervous.  Past performance tells me that, once the Giants make the playoffs, they are new men and nothing can stop them.  The Redskins with RGIII are such an unknown quantity that I think they have the potential to beat anybody.  And all season long, the Vikings have shown a remarkable ability to rise above expectations and upset a superior opponent. 

And so I am rooting for the Bears and Cowboys to make the cut this coming weekend.  And we can help with that process, for Chicago needs us to beat the Vikings in order to keep their own hopes alive.

Our game in Minnesota is Job One, of course.  If we go up there and beat the resurgent Vikings, we lock up the #2 seed in the NFC, we virtually knock Minnesota out of the playoffs, and we help to usher in the weaker Bears.  

Beyond that, I will be rooting for the Bears to beat the Lions (which is likely) and for the Cowboys to beat the Redskins.  The latter contest is so fascinating and so high-stakes that they have made it the Sunday Night game – the final game of the regular season! 

Packers win.  Bears win.  Cowboys win.  In these days right after Christmas, those are my two front teeth. 

To Tell the Truth

Do you remember the old television show called “To Tell The Truth”?  Evidently it has been on in various forms over many years.  My recollection of it, though, is the very old black-and-white version from my childhood.  Kitty Carlisle comes to mind. 

As I remember it, the premise of the game was to introduce to a panel of judges three individual who all claim to be the same person.  The judges are then permitted to ask the candidates questions until, at the end, each judge casts his vote to indicate which one he or she thinks is really the person that they all claim to be.  Then, at the end, the emcee famously says, “Will the real _______ please stand up!”  That is the moment of truth.  That is when the suspense ends, as the two pretenders stay seated, and the actual person is revealed. 

One of these days, “the real” best team in the NFL will need to stand up.  Each week for the past several weeks, we’ve thought we’ve known who it was.  And then another week passes and, ooops, we were wrong!

Going into Week 13, the Houston Texans boasted the best record in the league.  They were a gaudy 11-1, and folks generally assumed that they were the best.  By the end of Week 14, however, the New England Patriots were the consensus pick for the best team, having drubbed those Texans on Monday Night Football 42-14.  Ah, but in Week 15, the 49ers impressed the football world by going into New England and beating those Patriots 41-34.  But then, in Week 16, the Seahawks mauled those 49ers, 42-13.  

If the pattern persists, expect the 7-7-1 Rams to go into Seattle this Sunday and manhandle the Seahawks.

So who is the best? 

That’s one of the favorite debates right now on TV, on radio, and on the web.  The Packers can certainly make a case, having won 9 of their last 10 games, including this past Sunday’s dismantling of the Tennessee Titans.  And, for the moment, they are at least ranked second-best in the NFC playoff hunt, thanks to the aforementioned victory by the Seahawks over the 49ers. 

Of course, no one really gets to claim to be the best until they have the Lombardi Trophy in hand.  And any one of those teams that have performed so well in recent weeks is a legitimate candidate.  But, as we have also seen during these weeks of so much changing of the guard, on any given Sunday…

Week 16 Preview

Sometimes we use the words “ego” and “pride” interchangeably, and perhaps rightly so.  Yet there are moments when those two paths diverge, and I expect that the 2012 NFL season for the Detroit Lions is a good case in point.  I think that team has a lot of ego, but it doesn’t seem to have much pride.  They certainly didn’t put on much of a showing at home last night against Atlanta.  But then they haven’t put on much of a show all season.  I feel for their fans.

And speaking of fans, this is either the best or the worst time of the NFL year.  For the fans of the 19 teams that are either in-the-playoffs or in-the-hunt, these last two weeks are tremendously exciting.  For the fans of the other 13 teams, however – the ones that have already been eliminated from playoff contention – these weeks represent prolonged and painful disappointment. 

We are among the fans who have good reason to be excited.  Indeed, we are in one of the most favorable positions – for we don’t need to be nervous about missing the playoffs, on the one hand, but we can feel excited about improving our seeding, on the other.

There is more clarity on the AFC side this year.  Four of the six spots are already locked up (the Texans, Broncos, Patriots, and Ravens are all in).  Meanwhile, just four other teams are still vying for the remaining two slots – the Colts, Bengals, Steelers, and Dolphins.  And if the Colts and Bengals both win this week, they seal up those last two spots. 

The Colts play the Chiefs, so you’d think they can pretty well punch their tickets.  In one of the most fascinating games of the weekend, though, the Bengals go to visit the Steelers on Sunday.  It’s a divisional game, and it’s all on the line.  Great stuff!

Over in the NFC, the picture is more complex.  Just three teams are in – Atlanta, San Francisco, and Green Bay.  Meanwhile, an amazing eight other teams remain mathematically alive – the Redskins, Seahawks, Vikings, Bears, Cowboys, Giants, Rams, and Saints. 

Seattle has the easiest, most straightforward clinching scenario going into Week 16:  win and they’re in.  And that fact sets up one of the most intriguing games of the weekend, as the 49ers visit Seattle on Sunday Night Football.  The 49ers are clinging to the second seed by a half-game over the Packers.  The Seahawks, meanwhile, will be playing for not only a playoff berth but a shot at the NFC West title.  It shapes up to be a fantastic game.  And you and I are squarely in Seattle’s corner tonight!

The Vikings have the toughest road to the playoffs, with games against the Texans and Packers.  They have no way to clinch today, though it is possible that they could be eliminated today.  The Texans, meanwhile, are trying to stay ahead of the Broncos for the #1 seed in the AFC, and they’ll be playing at home.  But in addition to the playoff hunt, the Vikings’ remaining two games have this other motivating factor:  Adrian Peterson is chasing Eric Dickerson’s single season rushing record. 

The Bears have a much easier route to the playoffs, as their remaining schedule features the 5-9 Cardinals and the 4-10 Lions.  They’re both road games, but they’re both the kinds of teams that Chicago can beat. 

The Cowboys are also right there, but they have to play the Saints and the Redskins.  Tough stuff. 

And then there are the Giants.  They are currently the projected 9th seed, yet they come into this Sunday with two (long, complex) clinching scenarios.  They host the Eagles next week, which I think will be a “W” for them.  Accordingly, I am eager to see them lose today at Baltimore, for of all the remaining NFC teams in the hunt, New York is the one I am most anxious to see get knocked out.  They’re simply too good once they’re in the postseason. 

And so today, in addition to (or as part of) being a Packer fan, I am also a fan of the Seahawks, the Texans, the Ravens, and (as a matter of general principle) the Bengals. 

Finally, the Packers wrap up their home schedule this afternoon by hosting the Tennessee Titans.  The Titans haven’t been very good this year, and they have nothing to play for in the snow and the cold today.  I think that if the Packers can jump out on top early, Tennessee will fold.  They’ll just want the game to be over with so that they can get back to the warm buses and go home.  That’s what I’m rooting for – and, frankly, that’s what I’m expecting.  The real suspense at Lambeau today, in my judgment, will not be the outcome of the game, but the role and performance of Mason Crosby.  

Things I Don’t Understand

I suppose it is the very uncertainty of the game that makes it so ripe for betting beforehand and debating afterward.  It’s not clear-cut.  It’s not obvious.  It’s not predictable.  And, as a result, I find myself scratching my head about certain things that I just don’t understand.

I don’t understand how the 49ers can’t seem to manage to beat the Rams, but they can waltz into New England and manhandle the Patriots.  The Patriots who, by the way, were everyone’s “best team in the NFL” just a few days earlier.

I don’t understand why teams like the Lions, the Eagles, and the Chargers keep falling so far short of their talent year after year. 

I don’t understand why we can’t do to the Giants what Atlanta did.  The Falcons, whom we have bested rather convincingly in recent years, humiliated the New York Giants last weekend, and that in spite of the fact that the Giants had so much more to play for.  Yet the Packers can’t seem to get past the G-men.

I don’t understand how Paul Tagliabue and Roger Goodell can examine the same evidence and come to such different conclusions. 

I don’t understand why the Jets brought in Tim Tebow.

I don’t understand why they now think Michael Vick might be the answer.

And I don’t understand what happened to Mason Crosby.

Week 15 Preview

I haven’t seen any scenario in which a Packers’ loss today provides a way for them to clinch a playoff berth.  I have, however, seen a variety of complex formulae in which Green Bay could play Chicago to a tie and still wind up with a spot in the postseason.

But the simplest formula is this:  win and they’re in. 

As improbable as all of this may have seemed when the Packers were 2-3, or when the Bears were 7-1, Green Bay can clinch the NFC North with a win in Chicago today.  The 8-5 Bears, meanwhile, do not have the same capability.

I like Green Bay to get the job done.  As my earlier posts will attest, Chicago has not really impressed me all season.  Even when they were enjoying considerable media hype, I didn’t think they were for real.  And now their vaunted defense is old and injured, while the Packer offense has discovered a running game and has Greg Jennings back.  As Don Banks has put it, “Green Bay and Chicago are two elevators passing on the same shaft, headed for different floors. Not to say the Bears couldn't win this Sunday and make things interesting, but Chicago appears to have played its best ball of the season some time in October. Which is at least six weeks back. And that's not what you want.”

Meanwhile, speaking of Banks’ analysis of things, he makes a bold statement about the Packers’ place in the 2012 NFL pantheon:

By my clear-eyed assessment of the situation… only four teams escaped Week 14 looking built for the long haul that awaits in January and the first weekend of February: New England and Denver in the AFC, Green Bay and San Francisco in the NFC.

I guarantee the Super Bowl matchup comes out of that four-team pool, so write it down, chuck it in the vault, and seal it until the close of conference championship Sunday, when you are then free to remove it and reflect on my prescience. Or not. Either way, those are my new top four teams in this week's power rankings, and for good reason. They're potentially Super, and the other 28 teams are not.

Sounds good to me!

Meanwhile, the Packers go into the weekend with the #3 seed in the NFC, just a half-game behind San Francisco.  Those 49ers, meanwhile, head across the country to face the New England Patriots, coming off their recent domination of the not-ready-for-prime-time Texans.  This is a great Sunday Night Football match-up, and many will bill it as a Super Bowl preview.  For me, it will be a rare occasion to root for the Patriots.

While San Francisco has to take on New England, meanwhile, their division rival Seahawks will play the 5-8 Bills.  It looks to me like a Seattle win, which puts that much more pressure on the 49ers tonight.

Also of interest to us is the Giants’ visit to Atlanta.  New York needs the game more, and they do tend to rise to the occasion.  Also, I think the Falcons are not as good as their record.  Nonetheless, they’re playing at home, they need to bounce back from last week, and we would welcome a New York loss.   

The Steelers-Cowboys will be another fascinating game.  These two powerhouses of the 70s both find themselves scratching and clawing to make the playoffs this season.  At 7-6 each, neither one can afford a loss in Week 15.

And, in the AFC, the Broncos-Ravens game drips with playoff implications.

Of course, by this point in the year, you’re also bound to have some meaningless match-ups of also-rans….  The Lions-Cardinals, Jaguars-Dolphins, Chiefs-Raiders, and such.  Monuments to disappointing seasons, as those fans begin to look forward to the NFL Draft.

We, however, are living on the better side of the tracks.  It is December 16th, and it feels like there is still a ton of football left to be played.  Beginning with one of the best rivalries in football, where I expect us to get the best of the Bears down in Soldier Field. 

Week 14 Preview

It wasn’t always pretty, or even hopeful, but Week 13 couldn’t have worked out much better for the Packers than it did. 

First, we won our own game.  That is the essential business, and we managed to accomplish it in spite of Adrian Peterson’s ridiculous performance.  I hate to think what could have happened if Percy Harvin and a competent quarterback had also been on the field.  No matter, though.  We got the job done.  It is a win, and a Division win, at that. 

Then, elsewhere, the Lions lost.  They shouldn’t have, but they did.  And not just lost – they got their hearts ripped out at the very end of the game.  While they were hardly right on our heels, their loss is important to us because they come into Lambeau tonight with so much less to play for. 

And then, lo and behold, the Bears, 49ers, and Giants also all lost.  Amazing!  What an unlikely alignment of the stars on our behalf!  And so we go into Week 14, not only atop the NFC North, but also the third seed in the NFC altogether.  Ahead of the Bears.  Ahead of the Seahawks.  Ahead of the Giants.  And only a half-game behind the 49ers!  It’s quite remarkable, really, when you think back to that 2-3 start or that shellacking in New York a couple of weeks ago.

So, now, we are in the happy position of rooting against certain other teams only out of reflex, but not out of necessity.  The Packers’ fate is in their own hands.  All they have to do is keep winning their own games, and they’ll be sitting pretty in January.

It would be nice, of course, if the Bears would give us some breathing room by losing to the Vikings.  That is not beyond the realm of possibility, in my judgment.  The game is in Minnesota, and if the Vikings just keep handing the ball to Peterson, I think they could pull it off.  I don’t think they’re the better team, but they are 6-6, which is right on the cusp of the watershed for the Bears this year.

It would also be delightful if the Dolphins won in San Francisco.  I’m not holding my breath for that one, though.  I think the 49ers are going to demolish Miami.

The Giants, meanwhile, may well lose to the Saints.  New Orleans took a real hit last week in their failure against the Falcons.  But they’ve been proud enough to keep fighting all season against the odds, and so they may do us a favor in New York.

But, of course, we don’t really need anyone else to do us a favor.  We just need to beat the Lions.  We already did it once this year up in Detroit, and now the Lions have less to play for, and they’ll be doing it in the cold and amidst a really energized crowd at Lambeau Field.  If we can just keep Rodgers clean, I really like our chances tonight.

Finally, the game of the week is, admittedly, not our Sunday Night game, but the Monday Night event in Foxboro.  The 11-1 Texans visit the 9-3 Patriots in a possible preview of the AFC Championship game.  That should be a great match-up, though, of course, it has nothing to do with us… until February 3rd!   

Playoff Picture

With just five weeks to go now in the 2012 regular season, it may be time to take our first look at the playoff race.  As Packer fans, we won't concern ourselves at this point with the AFC picture.  But let's take a moment to consider the NFC.

If the season ended today, the Falcons and 49ers would enjoy the top two seeds and the first-round byes.  It's hard to imagine either one missing the playoffs, and so for them it's just a matter of jockeying for position within the NFC totem pole.  We'll give attention to that as we look at each week's match-ups.

Meanwhile, if the season ended today, the Bears would be the NFC North champ and the third seed, followed by the Giants as the NFC East champ and fourth seed.  The Packers and Seahawks would have the two wild card berths.  Just barely on the outside looking in at this point are the Buccaneers and Vikings at 6-5 (one game behind the current wild card teams), as well as the Redskins and Cowboys at 5-6. 

The Cowboys are an interesting case, for one would think that they'd need to win at least 4 of their remaining 5 games, but their last two are against the Saints and Redskins.  That's good scheduling.  It should make for exciting viewing as the season winds down. 

The Vikings are a game better than the Cowboys, but I don't think their chances are better.  They were shellacked by the Bears this weekend.  Now they have to go to Green Bay and then play the Bears again.  After a trip to St. Louis, they wrap up their season at Houston and hosting the Packers.  That's a tough road, and so I'm thinking the odds are long on the Vikings for this postseason.

The Seahawks are in a more favorable position.  While they do have games against the Bears and 49ers, their other three contests feature the Cardinals, Bills, and Rams.  They're all NFL teams, to be sure, but they are teams that a serious playoff contender expects to beat. 

While the numbers that Packer fans associate with the Giants right now is 38 and 10, the more pertinent numbers are 7and 4.  That is the current won-loss record of both Green Bay and New York.  Of course, the Giants have the head-to-head tie-breaker.  But they also have a pretty challenging schedule.  They go to Washington this week, followed by games against the Saints, Falcons, Ravens, and Eagles.  In short, their next 4 games will be against teams that are somewhere between good and great, as well as teams with a lot to play for.  It seems entirely possible to me that Green Bay will end the season with a better record than New York. 

The Packers' only non-Division opponent remaining is the Tennessee Titans in Green Bay on December 23rd.  I assume a "W" that week.  Meanwhile, we get to host the Lions, whom we managed to beat in Detroit, and who will likely have even less to play for when they arrive at Lambeau on December 9th.  We also face the Vikings twice -- a team whose best days seem to have been in the first half of the season.  And then there is the annual trip to Chicago.  We'll have to play better than we did in New York, of course, but I am quite sure that we have what it takes to beat these Bears.  And if we do, then I see us winning the NFC North and locking up the fourth -- and possibly even the third -- NFC seed. 

Coroner's Report

First order of business:  shave off the cheesy mustaches.  I'm not sure what got into both our coach and our quarterback, but it's not a good look for either one of them.  And when you're getting trounced on national TV, the mustached look looks only dopier. 

Second, I was wrong.  I had said that I didn't believe that this Packers team could get blown out, and so I was fearful of a close loss that would be placed at the feed of Mason Crosby.  Well, he did miss another field goal, but that was hardly the margin of victory for New York.  This was a most unhappy surprise to me.  I thought that we were too talented on both sides of the ball, as well as too mentally tough, to let a game get away from us like that.  Of course, it happens to the best, as just a few weeks of observing the NFL would prove. But it had been a long time since the Packers took that kind of a beating.  And I trust it will be a long time before it happens again.    

Third, you have to hand it to Tom Coughlin and the Giants.  You may not know what you're going to get from them on any ordinary week, but when they're facing a big game and a good team, they get the job done.  They did it in two Super Bowls against the Patriots (including, notably, against the undefeated Patriots in that year's stunner).  They did it in the playoffs last year against the Packers and 49ers.  And they went into San Francisco and dominated the 49ers again this season. 

Finally, what shall we identify as the cause of death in the wake of Sunday Night's disaster?   I believe it was a case of death by a thousand cuts.  We turned the ball over twice, while they didn't give it up at all.  They kept Manning clean, while Rodgers was sacked five times.  We were out-coached, out-muscled, out-adjusted, out-run, and out-performed.  Regrettably, there isn't any one thing that Packer fans can point to and say, "Ah, well if we just fix this, then we win that game."  No, for we would have needed to fix quite a number of things in order to have won last night.

Fortunately, however, unlike our previous loss to the Giants, this loss is not fatal.  It is not even that costly inasmuch as we're still just one game out of first in our Division, we'd still make the playoffs if the season ended today, and there's still a lot of football left to play.  Unlike January's loss to New York, we get to play again next week, which means that the team may embrace Sunday Night as a learning experience.  The Giants showed us what the perfect game plan looks like against these Packers, and so now we know.  Better to be exposed in November than in January.  And so I believe that the Packers will be businesslike about identifying the problems and fixing them.

More than that, I believe that the Packers won't lose another game this season.  Last night's embarrassment notwithstanding, I predict a 5-game winning streak to end the season, a 12-4 final record, another NFC North title, and a home game in the Wild Card round. 

If we meet the Giants again in the playoffs...?  Well, I wouldn't want to make a prediction about that at this point.  But I won't be surprised if we see them again.  And I don't think that they're actually 28 points better than we are.  

And, finally, there is this... For as crummy as I felt last night, and as unpleasant as the headlines are this morning, at least we're not Steeler fans. 

Week 12 Preview

A significant percentage of Week 12 is already in the books, what with the three Thanksgiving Day games, and the remaining slate does not feature a whole lot of compelling match-ups.  There are, however, some interesting story lines even within the poorer contests.  Are we watching, for example, the end of certain coaching eras in Philadelphia and San Diego?  Perhaps also, though less significantly, in Kansas City, Cleveland, and Arizona? 

The two prime time games this weekend are certainly at opposite ends of the spectrum.  The Football Night in America crew pulled the best match-up of the entire weekend, as the 7-3 Packers visit the 6-4 Giants.  More on that later.  The Monday Night Football folks at ESPN, meanwhile, are going to try to make interesting viewing out of the 2-8 Panthers' trip to 3-7 Philadelphia. 

The most interesting facet of the Monday Night game, it seems to me, is the juxtaposition of two over-hyped quarterbacks.  Both Michael Vick and Cam Newton have been heralded as sensational, multi-threat weapons.  And both have generated some highlights and some wins, to be sure.  Yet Newtom has fallen off considerably since his rookie debut, and Michael Vick has not proven himself to be a consistent winner in the NFL.  I doubt that that will be the dominant storyline on Monday Night, but with a combined 5-15 record, the question ought to be asked. 

Two games in our Conference have some interest for us.  The 9-1 Falcons at the 6-4 Buccaneers is likely to impact playoff seeding.  Meanwhile, the 7-2 49ers at the 5-5 Saints is a fascinating match-up.  San Fransisco is coming off of their impressive dismantling of the Chicago Bears, and they are coping now with an unexpected quarterback controversy.  The Saints, meanwhile, have climbed their way back from left-for-dead to relevancy.  They may not be able to contend seriously for their own division, but a wild card berth is within their reach.  The 49ers, meanwhile, have the Seahawks on their heels and lots of competition in the quest for bye weeks and home field advantage. 

Within our own Division, the 7-3 Bears host the 6-4 Vikings.  Chicago is reeling a bit right now, with two consecutive losses (including being humiliated by San Francisco), plus a concussed quarterback.  They head to Minnesota themselves in two weeks, with a visit from the Seahawks in between, so they cannot afford to lose this game.  And I don't think they will.  For while I never bought the 2012 Bears as one of the elite NFC teams, I do think they're better than the.  In any case, at this stage of the season, I'll welcome a loss by either one.

Finally, the undisputed game of the week is clearly the Packers-Giants match-up on Sunday Night.  New York has been the patron saint of inconsistency this year, including two consecutive clunkers against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.  But they sit atop a lousy division, they're coming off their bye week, and they sure had our number in the playoff game in Lambeau last January. 

I worry about the absence of Clay Matthews.  I worry about Eli Manning.  I worry about our inconsistent running game.  And I worry about the New York D-line.  But the most worrisome thing for me is Mason Crosby.  I don't think this Packers team is going to get blown out by anyone (cf. the Bears in San Francisco or the Jets on Thursday night).  If we lose, we'll lose by a few points.  And I'm not sure that Crosby is in the place right now mentally where he can be counted on to produce those few points that we may need.

Nevertheless, I like the Packers on the road, I like the revenge factor working in their favor, I like the way the defense came through (even without Matthews) in Detroit last week, I like Rodgers & Co. against New York's pass defense, and I like that we have been finding different ways to win this season.  And so, while I am admittedly nervous and anxious, I am looking for a Packer victory on the big stage in the big apple on Sunday Night. 

No Place Like Home for the Holidays

There were three NFL games on Thanksgiving Day, and each one was its own kind of ugly. 

I know that a certain percentage of home teams lose every week in the NFL, and yet there is something more poignant about it, it seems to me, on a holiday.  All these folks who have left their family and traditions behind in order to come out to the stadium, only to get their hearts stomped on.  And all three home teams did lose on Thanksgiving Day this year.

In the case of Detroit, yikes!  How much longer will Jim Schwartz last there?  And how many things can go wrong for these guys?  And how many ways will they find to lose?

I don't feel sorry for them, mind you.  I dislike Suh a great deal, I am not favorably impressed by Schwartz, and I am weary of the "megatron" hype.  Plus, while I don't have anything personal against Matthew Stafford, I continue to be inexplicably bothered by his resemblance to a grown-up Bobby Brady.  So all in all, I was happy to see the Texans throw another shovel of dirt onto the Lions' 2012 season yesterday.  But I am astonished at what has happened to them -- both in the small picture of individual games, and in the big picture of the season.  They are definitely in the running for the Most Underachieving Team award.

Also in the running, of course, are the other two losers from Thursday -- the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Jets.

The Cowboys are still in the hunt in the NFC East.  No one is running away with that division yet, but they do seem to be a bipolar group down there in Dallas.  One moment they are a talent-laden team that can score a ton of points quickly.  The next moment they are the Keystone Cops.  The Redskins buried Dallas early, arousing the hometown fans' anger.  But then, what made matters worse, is that Dallas made a heroic and promising comeback.  They had pulled off such a comeback against the Browns, and it looked like they were going to do it again.  But, no.  And so the fan went from furious, to hopeful, to disappointed.  That's a rough and unhappy ride. 

And then there were the Jets.  A New York newspaper portrayed them as a clown car at the beginning of the season, and they are living up to that billing.  That second quarter is one for the ages.  I wouldn't be surprised if Jet players and fans are still working through those 15 minutes of their lives with therapists ten years from now.  Wow.  The Patriots could have played the other three quarters with one arm tied behind their back, for their second quarter onslaught was by itself enough to beat the bumbling Jets.  

So the quarterback controversy remains.  The all-talk-but-no-results reputation continues to mount.  And the irascible New York fan base grows more and more impatient. 

Now it may be that, if the Jets (and especially their coach) were not such talkers, their humiliations would not garner so much attention.  After all, who outside of Kansas City is really paying much attention to that 2012 disaster?  But the Jets have made themselves so high-profile, so full of bluster.  They annually scream out, "Pay attention to us!", and so we do.  And thus their troubles become so scrutinized. 

So it was a memorably bad day for home teams on this holiday.  Let's hope the trend continues through Sunday night!

Ten Down, Six to Go

The first five weeks of the season we’re pretty shaky.  After last year’s 15-1 blitzkrieg against the rest of the league, three losses before Halloween was a truly disorienting experience. But the last five weeks of this season have been a tremendous improvement.

The Packers are on a five-game win streak now.  For all the hype we had to endure along the way about the Falcons, the Texans, the Bears, and the 49ers, Green Bay and Denver are the teams sporting the longest active winning streaks.

Plus, we have clawed our way back to the top of the NFC North and currently have the third seed in the entire Conference. 

Speaking of our own Division, we’re 2-0 there, which is a great start. 

The Bears, as I predicted, have fallen on hard times.  Everyone was treating them like they were hot stuff, but I knew they had built a misleading record and reputation.  Remember that scene in Rocky III when Mickey breaks the news to Rocky about the quality of his recent opponents?  Well, I knew that the Texans and 49ers were going to be Clubber Lang to the over-inflated Bears.  Houston beat ‘em, and then San Francisco humiliated them.  Beautiful stuff.  Now, perhaps, everyone will stop to consider the combined record of the teams that Chicago had beaten.

Meanwhile, this past Sunday’s gutty win in Detroit was not a thing of beauty, but it was magnificent.  The defense was huge.  And while the offense struggled, the bottom line is that they scored 10 points in the final minutes of the game.  That’s what great teams manage to do when they need to, and the Packers did it against a very tough Detroit D.

I was concerned that the Lions had the recipe on defense for stopping us. Namely, get great pressure with just your front four.  To hurry Aaron on the one end  while covering all his receivers on the other: that seems to be the way to beat us.  The Lions did a nice job of that for much of the game.  But, again, Green Bay moved the ball when they needed to.

Detroit fans (and evidently their coaching staff, too) came unraveled at the end.  And understandably so.  The Lions gave up the lead at home, they completely bungled their own two comeback opportunities, and they lost a game that they frankly needed more than their opponents did.  Now they’re wallowing at 4-6, three games out of first in the Division; they’re 0-4 in the Division; they’ve got a short week; and the Texans are coming to town.  (Oh, and the Tigers got swept, too.)

Finally, the Packers have some problems of their own.  Most significantly, Mason Crosby’s head is an obvious concern coming out of Sunday’s win.  The fact that he didn’t cost us the game in the end should help his mental situation.  But since the Packers’ have outscored their opponents thus far by 56 points – i.e., an average of 5.6 points per game – it’s going to be essential that our kicker is able to come through in the clutch.  By comparison, the Patriots have scored 133 more points than their opponents, the Texans 113 and the 49ers 111.  With those kinds of margins, a missed field goal isn’t fatal.  But the Packers need Crosby to get it together.  Fast.    

Week 10 Preview

It’s the Packers’ week off, and it seems to have come at a very good time.  It seems to me that there is something ideal anyway about getting your bye right near the halfway point in the season.  On top of that, we are clearly dinged up and in need of the extra time to heal.  And, in addition to the theoretical and the physical merits of a Week 10 bye, the emotional timing is also favorable.  We are coming off of a 4-game win streak, and so we don’t have to languish for an extra week with a bitter taste in our mouths.  Plus, 4 of our next 5 games will be within the Division, which means that everything is won or lost in this stretch run after our bye.

For now, though, we get to sit back and watch the other guys knock heads.  And some of the contests on tap are really quite interesting.

More and more eyes are trained on the Atlanta Falcons as they flirt with perfection.  They certainly don’t seem as dominant to me as the 2011 Packers were, and we got tripped up.  I doubt that Atlanta will make it to 16-0, therefore.  Still, the record makes each of their games that much more interesting, including this week’s visit to the division-rival, down-on-their-luck New Orleans Saints.  The Falcons are clearly the better, more balanced team.  Still, Drew Brees and that offense can keep New Orleans in any game, and I like the possibilities that come with the Saints playing at home against a division foe.

Another match-up of division rivals is scheduled in Philadelphia, where the struggling Eagles will host the struggling Cowboys.  This is one of those games that has a must-win feel to it on both sidelines.  Add to that the rivalry elements and the soap opera qualities of both teams, and it promises to be quite a game.

And speaking of soap operas, I give you the New York Jets.  They’ve been in the headlines a lot this past week, but not for any truly good reason.  There’s always a lot of talk coming out of the Jets, and a fair amount of talk about the Jets, as well.  Now they have to travel cross-country to take on the 5-4 Seahawks, which will be a tough defense against which Sanchez will try to prove that he’s still the man.  Plus, there is the added challenge of going up against his old coach.  Tough stuff and a fascinating game.

Meanwhile, within our own Division, there are two games, and they’re both really good. 

On Sunday afternoon, the 5-4 Vikings will host the 4-4 Lions.  This season’s performances notwithstanding, I am frankly more afraid of the Lions’ capacity to make a run during the last half of the year, and so I’ll be reluctantly pulling for Minnesota.  I won’t be pulling hard, though, for either outcome works for me.  One or the other will be knocked down another peg below the Packers, and that suits me just fine.

And then there are the Bears.  They have been feasting on bad teams for weeks now, and making quite a name for themselves while doing it.  This week, however, they will finally have to face a worthy opponent.  And, frankly, I expect them to get embarrassed. 

And it will happen on national TV, at that, for the Texans at Chicago is the Sunday Night match-up this week.  Excellent!  I know that the Bears defense has earned quite a reputation this year, but I like Matt Schaub’s chances against it.  And, on the other side, I expect Houston’s defense to completely flummox – and likely flatten – Jay Cutler.

Perhaps this is all wishful thinking on my part, but I’m looking for the Bears to stink it up at home this week.  And then they won’t have any time to lick their wounds before they have to go out to San Francisco on Monday Night Football, to be publicly humiliated once again. 

I say the emperor in Chicago has no clothes.  And I think their next two opponents will be pointing it out to the world.

So the game-of-the-week in Week 10 is clearly Sunday evening’s Football Night in America match-up.  NBC has to love their draw for this week: two 7-1 teams going at it in prime time. 

Do you suppose that anyone will think to mention the “1” that they have in common?

Week 9 Preview

Week 9 in the NFL is noteworthy for its paucity of powerhouse battles.  Only two games feature opponents with winning records.  The 4-3 Steelers at the 6-2 Giants is the headliner of the weekend, and the 4-3 Dolphins at the 4-3 Colts is its homely little sister. 

Both Pittsburgh and New York have pulled a foul ball or two this season, but the Giants are clearly in better shape overall.  Plus, I think they’re the better team.  Plus, because of the recent east coast chaos, the Steelers’ routine will be dramatically thrown off by having to fly into New York on game day itself.  I like the Giants in this, the best game of the week. 

The Dolphins-Colts tilt appears on paper to be an important AFC match-up.  Personally, I can’t work up much enthusiasm over it.

Meanwhile, though there are no other games between two teams with winning records, a couple of games are of interest because of the desperation involved.  The 3-4 Eagles at the 2-5 Saints is a good case in point.  Everyone thinks that both Andy Reid and Michael Vick’s necks are on the chopping block, while the Saints are in an absolutely dismal situation, yet too proud and talented to fold their tents for 2012.

Another case is the Panthers trip against the Redskins.  Both teams (and their fans) came into the season with much higher hopes than have been realized so far.  Cam Newton is suffering a most severe sophomore slump, and he is not handling it with grace.  RGIII, meanwhile, is showing great promise, but his Redskins are generally underperforming at 3-5.

Elsewhere, desperate meets undefeated when the Cowboys travel to Atlanta.  Dallas, like Philly, is another instance where coach and quarterback are under intense scrutiny and pressure, and a 3-5 record at the halfway mark would create a bit of a steep hill for them.  On the other hand, it’s going to be hard for them to get to .500 this week against the 7-0 Falcons in Atlanta.  Still, the birds have to come down to earth sometime this season.  Could this be the week?  I doubt it.

Within our own division, our rivals all hit the road this week, while we stay at home.  The struggling, undisciplined Lions will face the team we just beat: the 1-6 Jaguars.  I think Jacksonville is better than its record, and so I have some hope that they might pull off the upset.

Meanwhile, the bloom has come off Minnesota’s rose in recent weeks, and they face a tough road test now against Seattle.  Again, I think this is another one that could go our way.  In fact, if I had to bet on one of the NFC North games going the right way this weekend, this would be the one I’d put some money on.  

Finally, the Bears visit the Tennessee Titans.  As I mentioned earlier this week, I haven’t bought into the 6-1 Bears yet.  Consider the foes they have vanquished thus far: the Colts (4-3), the Rams (3-5), the Cowboys (3-4), the Jaguars (1-6), the Lions (3-4), and the Panthers (1-6), the latter being a mere 1-point victory at home.  By record, therefore, the best team that the 2012 Bears have beaten was the Colts – i.e., the worst team from 2011 in a rookie QB’s first NFL game.  I’m not impressed by that resume. 

All of which is not to say that I’m picking the Titans.  But Tennessee did manage to beat the Steelers a few weeks back, and I think they might surprise the Bears.  More to the point, though, is that one preview of this game referred to “the mighty Bears,” which I think is ridiculous.  Three of their next four games are against the Texans, 49ers, and Seahawks.  Ask me in a month how mighty they are.

Then there is the Cardinals’ visit to Lambeau Field.  The forecast calls for temps in the low to mid 40s, which is just fine for a team coming up from Arizona (where it will be 80-degrees at kickoff.

Peter King offers this interesting factoid about the 2012 Cardinals:

Cards opened 4-0, averaging 23 points a game. They're 0-4 since, averaging nine.

So I guess we’re catching them at a good time.  Plus, they’re coming off a huge disappointment at home on Monday Night against the division-rival 49ers.  It’s a short week for them, they’re on the road, and they’re not playing well.  The Packers, meanwhile, are riding a three-game win streak, they’re at home, they may be getting Jordy Nelson back, and they see a light at the end of their tunnel as next week is their bye.  If Green Bay doesn’t win this game, I will be stunned. No, I’m looking for an all-around good week for Packer fans.

Is There a “W” in “Clunker”?

After putting together two masterpieces on the road, Packer fans were excited to welcome home their heroes this past Sunday and see a great game.  Welcome there was.  Great game?  Not so much. 

Don’t get me wrong: a win is a win.  Plus, it was a beautiful late October Sunday in Green Bay, Wisconsin, I was at Lambeau with my daughter, and the happy fans were enjoying themselves all around the stadium well after the game.  It was all good.

But the Packers themselves didn’t look so good.  They cobbled together enough points to win, but it wasn’t the sort of domination that was expected.  After beating the undefeated Texans so soundly on the road just a few weeks before, we all had high hopes for what the Packers would do at home to the lowly Jaguars. 

Jacksonville didn’t look so lowly, though.  Lacking their best offensive player, the Jaguar offense still managed to make our defensive backfield look pretty porous.  On the other side of the ball, meanwhile, the offense couldn’t generate a consistent running game, and the passing game showed only occasional glimpses of its potential.  On special teams?  Another alarming miss by Mason Crosby (at home in pleasant weather) makes one wonder if he can be relied on to win a game in the clutch.

All that having been said, the reality is that the 2012 Packers more nearly resemble the Super Bowl team of 2010 than the 15-1 (but early exit from the playoffs) team of 2011.  Both the 2010 and 2012 squads started 3-3.  Both were plagued by injuries to key players.  And both were hardened into winners as a result.  Last year’s team never needed to be hardened, and I think it cost them in the end.

Green Bay is riding a three-game win streak, and they get another home game before a much-needed bye.  Meanwhile, the Vikings are falling back to earth, and I still don’t buy the 6-1 Bears.  (More on that in a few days.)  And so the grand theft in Seattle and the grand collapse in Indy are growing small in our rear view mirrors, while the top of the NFC North is clearly visible just down the road. 

Sunday’s game was, by any measure, a bit of a clunker.  But evidently the Packers are good enough to stink it up and still come away with a win.  Go team!

Week 7 Preview

Week 7 began predictably.  After getting pasted at home by the Giants last Sunday, I fully expected the 49ers to come back and take out their frustrations on someone.  They Seahawks held their own, but an “L” is an “L.”  Still, the NFC West remains tight and competitive. 

Likewise, the AFC East is also tight and competitive, with all four teams knotted up at 3-3.  Two of them are facing off this week when the Jets visit the Patriots.  There’s already no love lost there, and the larger context adds to tension.  Both teams had higher hopes than a .500 start.  Should be a great game!

The most touted AFC game, meanwhile, is the match-up between the only two squads in the Conference with winning records.  The 5-1 Ravens visit the 5-1 Texans.  The latter, of course, are still smarting from how the Packers put them to shame on Sunday Night Football.  The Ravens will be a tough team to rebound against, though Houston has the advantage of playing at home.

The least touted AFC game is probably the Browns at the Colts.  Cleveland finally broke into the win column last week, and they’ve got to be looking at the Colts as another eligible victim.  I spent a lot of years living in Cleveland and just recently learned that their coach’s mom lives near me, so I’ll be pulling hard for them. 

The Saints are the other team that came late to their first win.  It’s hard to imagine them catching the Falcons, who have rocketed out to a 6-0 start.  Second place in that division is wide open, however, and New Orleans can lay claim to that with a win at Tampa Bay.

Meanwhile, the entire NFC North is back at work this week.  The surprising Vikings are hosting the 4-2 Cardinals.  Arizona can’t afford to lose more ground against the 49ers and Seahawks, just as Minnesota can’t against the Bears.  Both teams boast some impressive victories on their 2012 resume.  Arizona has beaten Seattle, the Patriots, and the Eagles, while the Vikings have upset the 49ers and shellacked the Titans. If the game were in Arizona, I’d definitely pick the Cardinals.  As it is, though, I’m not so sure.  Naturally, I’m in the Cardinals corner, no matter.

The Division-leading Bears are hosting the 2-3 Lions on Monday Night Football.  I can’t root for either team, but I will be delighted by either one losing.  Folks are beginning to talk about the Bears like they’re for real.  They didn’t look it when they came to Green Bay, but we didn’t look like it during the second half in Indy, either.  Now you can only beat the teams you play, and they have mostly managed to do that.  But the teams they’ve beaten (Colts, Rams, Cowboys, and Jaguars) have a combined record of 8-13.  Of the group, the Rams have the best record at 3-3.  So I’m not sold on the Bears yet.

Finally, the Packers play those 3-3 Rams this Sunday in St. Louis.  I’m afraid they’re a no-nonsense team, having won all three home games so far this season.  And those three victories have come against the Redskins, the Seahawks, and the Cardinals.  Green Bay is definitely the more balanced team, but I am concerned by where their imbalance lies.  Namely, while their offense ranks near the bottom in many categories, their defense is really quite good.  Statistically, it’s better than ours.  But if the Packers can achieve the same sort of rhythm and pace that characterized their Sunday Night performance in Houston, I have little doubt that we’ll come home victorious.

Enough Said

I have discovered something about myself – specifically, about my psyche – during the years of writing this blog.  Namely, that it is personal therapy for me. 

This past week is the anecdotal evidence.  When we lose a game, I sit down and begin to write right away.  I need to.  It helps me process the frustration and disappointment that I’m feeling.  When we win, however, I don’t feel the same need. 

This past Sunday Night’s manhandling of the previously undefeated Houston Texans was so masterful and so complete that there is nothing left to say.  The Packers – and perhaps especially Aaron Rodgers with his clever “Shhhh” quote – said it all by how they played.  And, of course, there is no frustration or disappointment for me to process.

Everyone recognizes that the game was more important to the Packers than to the Texans.  Also, it was a non-Conference game for both teams, and so it doesn’t have the strategic tie-breaker function that some other games have.  Also, Green Bay is fighting its way through a very competitive division, while the Texans could win the AFC South this year with one hand tied behind their back.  For all those reasons, therefore, some folks have discounted the Packers’ dominant victory.

On the other hand, we know well the pride and the drive involved with being undefeated.  Plus, it was a home game in prime time.  The crowd was juiced, all the energy and momentum was on the Texans’ side, and they were enjoying a rare national spotlight.  But Green Bay went in there and took it to the favored Texans from start to finish. 

Our defense looked great, our offensive line held up much better than predicted, and the running game was also better than expected given Cedric Benson’s absence.  Best of all, the offensive pace and efficiency was back to its 2011 form.   I believe we could have beaten anybody that night – including any of the three teams that have bested us thus far this season. 

All of which is to say that being a good team and playing well are not exactly the same thing.  Just ask the 49ers after they got shellacked by the visiting Giants last week.  The mediocre and troubling start to the 2012 season does not make me doubt that Green Bay is a good team.  But we have not been playing well – not consistently, at least.  We played well against Chicago.  We played well against the Texans.  And now that we have rediscovered what that looks and feels like, can we keep it up over the long road from here until the middle of February? 

Week 6 Preview

Week 6 in the NFL is already a good one as far as I’m concerned, for anytime the Steelers lose is a good week for me.

Meanwhile, here are some other games of interest on tap for the pro football weekend.

The winless Browns – the lone winless team remaining in the NFL now that the Saints have gotten off the proverbial schneid – are hosting the 3-2 Bengals.  I’m sure there is a win somewhere in Cleveland’s future, but I fear this is not it.

Likewise, I’m sure there’s a loss somewhere in Atlanta’s and Houston’s futures, but will it come in Week 6?  The Falcons have the challenge of heading to the West Coast. The Raiders did beat the Steelers in Week 2, and they’re coming off their bye week.  Still, Atlanta is statistically much better on both sides of the ball, and so I wouldn’t bet against the Falcons in this spot.

The Jets hosting the Colts is an interesting match-up, especially because of the juxtaposition of quarterbacks involved.  Luck is an impressive competitor, while Sanchez so often seems like a head case.  New York badly, badly needs this win, though, particularly with a trip to New England in store for the following Sunday.  The Colts, meanwhile, are riding high after their emotional victory over the Packers.  I’m predicting a letdown week for Indy, as New York rises up and gets the job done.

Speaking of the Patriots, they travel to Seattle this Sunday to take on the Seahawks.  Both teams are 3-2, which is enough to give New England the lead in their division.  In the tough NFC West, however, Seattle can’t afford to miss a step.  They have the better defense, while the Patriots have the much better offense.  Personally, I’m a believer that great defenses beat great offenses.  That, along with the cross-country trip and noisy home field advantage, make me like the Seahawks in this one.  (Well, not like them, but favor them to win.)

Another great match-up of east meets west is the Giants’ trip to San Francisco (a phrase that would sound like a historical reference to a baseball fan).  New York has been uneven so far early in 2012, while the 49ers have been hitting on all cylinders.  And, again, my inclination is to side with the better defense, especially when it is also the home team. 

Within our own Division, the Bears get the week off, while the Lions, Vikings, and Packers all hit the road.

Our road trip is indisputably the hardest one.  More about that in a moment.  The surprising Vikings head to DC to take on RGIII and the 2-3 Redskins.  Minnesota has the superior defense, but Washington brings some unique challenges with their versatile quarterback.  Minnesota is coming off an exhilarating blowout of Tennessee, while Washington lost a close, tough one to the Falcons.  I like the Redskins in this situation.  (And of course I’m rooting for them, too.)

The disappointing Lions, meanwhile, travel to Philly to play the 3-2 Eagles.  If Detroit was showing any of its stuff from last year, I’d pick them against the uneven Eagles.  But the Lions are so very un-disciplined and have been playing so badly that I have to go with the home team here.  (And, again, my head and my heart are on the same side.)

Finally, the Packers are on Sunday Night Football against the undefeated Houston Texans.  If it were last year’s Packers against this year’s Texans, it would be the undisputed game of the week.  As it is, however, the contest is simply a must-win for a desperate Green Bay squad that can’t seem to find itself. 

At times, our defense has been stifling, but they haven’t generated the turnovers, and they couldn’t stop the Colts when they needed to last week.  At times, the offense has looked like the score-at-will, well-oiled machine that was the hallmark of the 2011 team.  Those times have been relatively few and far between, however, while more often they have looked flummoxed by defenses who manage both to pressure Rodgers and to cover his receivers.  On paper, therefore, I like the Texans. 

Still, I believe the Packers of last year are in there somewhere, and I’m convinced that they’ve got the internal leadership to rise to the occasion.  If I were a betting man, therefore, I’d put my money Green Bay to put the pieces together, upset the Texans at home, and get folks talking again about the Packers as one of the best teams in the NFL. 

Week 6 began well.  I expect it to end well, too. 

Total Team Effort

I don’t believe in panic.  I can’t think of any situation or area of life in which panic is the best response.  It may be a natural reflex, but it is not a productive one. 

That said… yikes!  What’s wrong with the Packers?! 

After roaring out to a 13-0 start last season and looking unbeatable – a team for the ages!, we thought -- that same group has gone 4-5 in the last nine games that they’ve played.  What happened?

Sunday’s disaster was the worst sort of total team effort.  Offense, defense, and special teams all contributed to that loss. 

On offense, the running game was anemic and the passing game was inconsistent.  There was the Rodgers interception, dropped passes, missed opportunities, and inadequate pass protection.  And none of these, incidentally, were unique to this Sunday. 

On defense, we saw the same mystery that marked much of the Saints game: namely, it seemed that we had fewer men on the field than the offense.  They had enough guys to block our rushers, yet at the same time they managed to find big open spots in the defensive backfield.  Do we not have 11 defenders?   How is it that we can neither pressure the quarterback nor cover the receivers?  Very disturbing.  We were beaten by the tandem of a rookie QB and a 103-year-old receiver.  How can we hope to beat the Texans next week?!

And then there were special teams.  I love Randall Cobb, but a runback that starts 9 yards deep in the end zone suggests inadequate coaching and poor judgment.  More problematic, though, is two missed field goals.  One wide and one very wide.  “One of the best kickers in the league,” I believe the TV commentator called him.  Okay, but those missing six point are a painful memory in a 3-point loss.   

So is there any good news?  Is there any hope? 

Well, first, as mentioned above, this is essentially the same team that went 13-0 last year.  While bewildering, it is good news because we know their potential.  It’s a great roster, and we know that the coaching staff has been effective in the past, too. 

Second, of the three losses, this was the least costly.  Losing in the Division, of course, is the worst of all.  (We haven’t done that yet.) Losing in the Conference is next.  (We’ve done that twice.)  Losing to a team from the AFC, though, is the least problematic sort of a loss, and that’s what the Colts loss was. 

Finally, as we discovered last year (and see almost every season), it’s not who’s hot at the beginning; it’s who’s hot at the end.  Last year’s Super Bowl champs were 9-7 at the end of the regular season.  While 2-3 is upsetting, it’s not cause for panic.  And I don’t think any of these guys – McCarthy, Capers, Rodgers, Matthews, Driver, etc. – I don’t think any of them will panic.  They’ll sit down and evaluate, they’ll address the problems, they’ll game plan, and they’ll head down to Houston expecting to win.

Go, Pack, go!

Week 5 Preview

Was it Bill Parcells who famously insisted that you are what your record says you are? 

I used to believe that, but this year I’m not so sure.

Are the Packers really a .500 team?  Are the Patriots?  Are the 0-4 Saints really the equal of the 0-4 Browns?  Are the Eagles and Vikings genuinely 3-1 quality teams? 

Our consideration of the Week 5 slate of games begins in the state of Pennsylvania where the 3-1 Eagles will visit the 1-2 Steelers.  Pittsburgh is coming off their bye, and they cannot afford to drop to 1-3 in a division that includes the Ravens.  Furthermore, I don’t really believe that Philly is as good as its record.  Perhaps both teams will surprise me – as they have both done already this season – but I expect a Steeler win. 

The Falcons have enjoyed tremendous hype for their impressive and undefeated September.  They’ll take their perfect record into D.C. (and we know not much has stayed perfect there since Jimmy Stewart’s “Mr. Smith).  The unbeaten and much-hyped Cardinals have already lost a shocker in Week 5.  Will Atlanta suffer the same fate?  I think it’s possible.

The other undefeated team is also hitting the road this week.  The Houston Texans take on the New York Jets in a game made all the more fascinating by the soap opera dysfunctionality of the Jets.  Will their play match their bluster, or will they be embarrassed again?  Who will quarterback?  What will their coach say and do?  I think the Texans are the better team – but then I thought that the 49ers were better than the Vikings, too.

Speaking of the 49ers, they host the Bills this Sunday.  Both teams are coming off of blowout games.  The 49ers blew out the Jets, while the Bills were being blown out by the New England Patriots.  No time for Buffalo to feel sorry for itself; they have to cross the country to play arguably the best team in the NFC.  Not a recipe for success for the Bills. 

The Saints continue to look for some recipe for success.  They (with the help of the officials and Graham Harrell) almost pulled it off in Green Bay last week.  Can they pull it off at home this week against the visiting Chargers?  Tough to say.  I think the Saint offense can keep up with anybody, but their defense may not be able to slow down the Chargers as effectively as the Chargers will be able to slow down the Saints.  Could New Orleans possibly drop to 0-5?!

One of the best match-ups of the week is the Broncos’ trip to New England.  I don’t think Denver is as good as the Patriots, but it is a renewal of the duel between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, which should be exciting.  I wish the game were being played in Denver, though.  I think that would even the playing field a bit. 

Within our own Division, the Lions have their bye this wee before returning to play at Philly next Sunday.  It’s tough to have to take your bye at 1-3.  I would think you’d be impatient to get back out there.  Detroit is an interesting mess so far in 2012.

Meanwhile, I’m afraid the other two Division rivals are likely to win this week.  The Bears are on the road, but they’re playing the Jaguars, and I do suspect that Chicago is the better team.  4-1.  Yuck.

Meanwhile, the Vikings get to stay home and host the Titans.  I’m slow to come around to be a believer in Minnesota.  The reality is, though, that they are playing better than Tennessee so far this season, and especially so on defense. 

Finally, our game is an early one this week.  After so many non-traditional time slots for Packer games last month, finally we’re back to a Sunday noon kickoff again.  We’re visiting the 1-2 Colts, who have lost two of Andrew Luck’s first three games as an NFL quarterback.  They are coming off a bye and playing at home, both of which will be to their advantage.  Meanwhile, they are also carrying the emotional load of the recent health news about their head coach, which is an impossible factor to calculate or predict.  In the end, I’m quite sure that Green Bay is the better team.  And most of the time in the NFL, the better team wins.  I expect the Packers to win on the road this Sunday.

And they’d better win on the road this Sunday, because next Sunday they’ll be on the road against the Houston Texans – perhaps the best team in the league right now.

Packers at Colts

End of the 1st Quarter

It was a perfect day for football this past Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field!  What an atmosphere!  The sky was clear and blue, the air warm (for late September), and the crowd absolutely jazzed.  Lots of excitement in the air, and a palpable eagerness to see the Packers bounce back from the previous Monday Night’s injustice. 

By halftime, our emotions were as hopeful and bright as the sky.  The Packer defense had ably kept a lid on the vaunted Saints offense, and Green Bay’s offense had shown some of its old efficiency and explosiveness.  It wasn’t a question whether we would win; it was only a question of by how much.

In the end, I was surprised by how much.  One point. 

The third quarter was a disaster.  So much so that even the part that was going well for us turned into a disaster!  Rodgers led a beautiful drive down the field that looked so much like the move-the-ball-at-will offense of 2011.  We were unstoppable on the way to the end zone.  And then that freak injury to Rodgers’ eye.  And then the simple handout that Graham Harrell was expected to transact.  And then the fumble, the recovery, and the drive going the other direction.  Ugh!

The late missed field goal by New Orleans near the end of the game was an appropriate symbol for the feeling of the game.  We had not won; we had escaped.  We had gone from robust cheers to something more like sighs of relief. 

Still, the “W” in our column counts just as much as the “W” in, say, the 49ers (34-0 over the Jets) or the Broncos (37-6) over the Raiders.  As they say, there are not style points in the NFL. 

So, after the first quarter of the season, the Packers are 2-2, and the NFC North is nearly upside down.  Weren’t we and the Lions expected to be playing king of the hill in our Division?  But we are a mere .500, while the Lions are licking their wounds at a disappointing 1-3.  The 3-1 Bears, meanwhile, have looked good in every game except the one against us, and the Vikings are arguably the biggest surprise of the first quarter of the 2012 season.  They are 3-1, including wins over the 49ers and Lions.  Who are these guys?!

Elsewhere, the Browns lost again, thus keeping the Saints company at 0-4.  The Patriots proved that they are good enough to play well for only half a game and still wipe you out.  The 49ers showed that you don’t want to have to play them the week after they lose.  And the Rams beat the Seahawks, which on the playground we used to call “Cheater’s Proof.”

Finally, one of the biggest takeaways from Week 4 – especially at Lambeau – was the fans’ short honeymoon with the real refs.  Green Bay was victimized by two patently awful calls.  The first was the unnoticed offensive pass interference that led to the Saints first touchdown.  The other was the uncalled Saints fumble on a kick return in the fourth quarter.  It was all very apparent to us on Lambeau’s big, beautiful scoreboards (see sample below), and the Green Bay fans were worked into a justifiable froth over it all.  But the scoreboard is not the replay booth, and the NFL (as well Green Bay) is fortunate that the Packers didn’t lose in the end.

Week 4 Preview

One wonders how much bad taste one mouth can handle.

Clearly the Packers entered the 2012 season with a bad taste in their mouths because of the surprising way that 2011 ended.  After rocketing out to a 13-0 record and flirting with perfection, the wheels came off at the end, culminating with a home playoff loss to the 9-7 Giants. 

The bad taste got even worse with an opening day home loss to the San Francisco 49ers to begin the 2012 season.

And now, in the wake of the mind-boggling Monday Night game in Seattle, the Packers have to be nearly choking and gagging on the bad taste in their mouth. 

So what will Week 4 bring?

Well, at least it will bring a chance to get back to .500, which is more than can be said for the Steelers and Colts.  Both of those 1-2 teams have to live with their underachievement and disappointment for another week, for those are the two teams with the first (and unreasonably early) bye week. 

Elsewhere, all three undefeated teams stand a good chance of staying perfect this week.  They all match up against 1-2 opponents, and two of the three (the Falcons and Cardinals) are playing at home.  On the other hand, both of those birds are coming off such decisive wins against previously unbeaten teams that one can imagine something of a letdown – much like the 49ers had last week in Minnesota.

The Falcons’ match-up is perhaps the most interesting of the three, for Atlanta hosts the division-rival Panthers.  Carolina fans had high hopes after last season’s impressive Cam Newton debut.  But now they are 1-2 and coming off a real old-fashioned butt-kicking at the hands of the Giants.  Will the Panthers bounce back, or will they dissolve under the pressure?  My guess is the latter.

Speaking of the Giants…  They travel to Philly for a great NFC East match-up on Sunday Night Football (which, as I have mentioned before, I think is the best televised football out there).  Apart from their sleepwalking loss to Dallas in Week One, the Giants have been playing well.  But the Eagles, 2-1 record notwithstanding, have not.  I like New York in this one.

Another game of general (as opposed to personal) interest is the Patriots’ visit to Buffalo.  It is also a divisional game, and it has the added element of New England trailing the Bills by a game and needing to right their ship.  I imagine they will.  They may be 1-2, but there’s no shame in losing to the 3-0 Cardinals and the 3-1 Ravens.  

Closer to home, it should be a rough week for the rest of our own Division.  The Vikings and Lions play each other, and so we’re guaranteed that one of those rivals will lose.  And the Bears, meanwhile, play in Dallas on Monday Night, which looks like a Chicago loss to me.  If the Packers can win their game, therefore, I am content with where they’ll be situated going into October.

Of course, because of our two in-Conference losses in September, we’ll also need to keep one eye on the 49ers and Seahawks, much like we do on our Division rivals.  They’re both on the road this week, but I expect both to come away with wins (against the Titans and Jets, respectively). 

Finally, the big game is the New Orleans Saints visit to Lambeau on Sunday afternoon.  Call it the “We Hate Goodell Bowl,” as the two teams most adversely affected by the NFL commissioner face off in a rematch of last season’s Game One. 

That narrow Packer victory seems like a very long time ago, doesn’t it?  Folks were calling that game a preview of the NFC Championship Game.  Well, as it turned out, neither team made it that far.  And now the one is languishing at 0-3, on the verge of a lost season, while the other has already lost more games in one month than it did all of last year.  Pretty grim.

And it will be even more grim for one of these hopeful franchises by the time the sun sets this Sunday.  Either the Saints will be 0-4, and perhaps a full 4 games behind in their own division; or the Packers will be at 1-3, with all three losses coming in the Conference, two coming at home, and facing a rare stretch of three consecutive road games.  Someone is going to be in a bad, bad way by the end of this match-up.

Personally, I’m pretty confident that it will be the Saints.  For as maddening as Monday Night was, I came away pretty impressed by the Packers.  Our defense was outstanding, holding the Seahawks(official records aside) to a mere 7 points.  And our offense, while stymied throughout the first half, genuinely dominated the second half.  They made significant halftime adjustments, which I think is both impressive and encouraging.  To go back onto the field with exactly the same personnel, yet with such different results, is a great credit to the coaching staff and to the team’s mental toughness.

If we were playing in New Orleans, I’d be more concerned.  And if the replacement refs were still officiating, I’d be downright scared.  But as it is, I’m feeling very confident that Green Bay will exact their pound of flesh and move into October in a reasonably good position.

It’s All Over

No, it’s not the season that is all over.  Far from it.  As I began to indicate in my previous post, I continue to be rather optimistic about the Packers’ 2012 season.  Ah, but the controversial end to the Monday Night Football game is all over.  Everywhere you look, people are writing about it and talking about it.  While the replacement refs were already a hot topic in the sports world, what happened at the end of the Packers-Seahawks game raised the whole issue to a whole new level.

It was the perfect storm:  a nationally televised primetime game, a close game, a game-changing call, and a manifestly egregious error.  Remove any one of those elements, and the outcry would not be so great.

Imagine, for example, that this had happened during one of the early games on a Sunday afternoon.  Only a fraction of America’s football fans would have been watching.  And while it would have been widely reported, the level of “you’ve got to be kidding” outrage would not be the same.

Or imagine that it had been a blown call during the midst of the game.  (Wait, there were a few of those, too.)  It would be exasperating, but still the matter-of-fact nature of sports would conclude, “Well, the Packers still had 20 minutes (or whatever) of game left to make up for it and win.”

Or imagine that it had been a close call – like the famed “was Majkowski over the line when he threw the ball” question and the “immaculate reception,” which have been debated back and forth for years.  It would make for a fun water cooler conversation, but it wouldn’t prompt the visceral reaction (except among the offended fan base, of course). 

But this was so viewed, so pivotal, and so obvious.  It’s all over.  Sports Illustrated’s web site’s primary headline on Tuesday morning called it “Nightmare Scenario.”

ESPN.com also lead with the same story – indeed, the same photo.  Playing on the Tom Hanks movie title, they called the refs “Clueless in Seattle.”

Yahoo Sports was openly calling upon the commissioner to make things right. 

Fox Sports captured the same embarrassing moment and called it “Gross National Product.”

CBS Sports cleverly dubbed it “Officially a Mess.”

Even NFL.com, which tends to underplay league controversies, recognized the debatable nature of Monday Night’s ending.

And the headlines went beyond just the sports world.  More traditional news shows and outlets were also talking about it on Tuesday.  And Tuesday morning’s Drudge Report led with the mess.

As the day after unfolded, the furor did not die down.  See the variety of headlines that Drudge had culled concerning this debacle by Tuesday afternoon:

So what will become of all this? 

Well, evidently not an overruled result.  We’ll contemplate that failure of the commissioner’s office more later.  But it does seem clear that public pressure on the league has been pretty intense, and the locked out refs suddenly had a much stronger hand than they prior to this last weekend.  The deal will finally get done, and in the end it will have been the Green Bay Packers who were the heroes:  suffering personal loss for the greater good and the benefit of the whole. 

And whenever the real refs are introduced before the games – perhaps as early as this Sunday – I expect that they will enjoy an unprecedented standing ovation in stadiums all around the country.

Now if only they had some way to show their gratitude to the Packers who made it all possible… 

Where to Begin…

Optional Starting Place #1:  It may not be clear which was the best team on the field last night, but it’s very clear which one was the worst: the team wearing black and white.

Optional Starting Place #2:  The real officials should get to wear the black-and-white outfits.  But the replacement refs should be donned in shades of gray.

Optional Starting Place #3:  It appears that we need to add a fourth column to the standings.  After “won,” “lost,” and “tied,” we need a column for “hosed.”  The teams with the most wins in each division get the first four playoff spots in the NFC, and then the two teams with the most “hoseds” get the wild card berths. 

Optional Starting Place #4:  At halftime, I was thinking that I had never seen such a frustrating 30 minutes of football.  That is rivaled, though, by the most frustrating 7 minutes of football that I saw at the end of the game.  While the last-play call is rightly dominating the headlines, the reality is that the referees had already robbed us on the roughing call and the pass interference call on the penultimate Seattle drive that ended up pinning our offense too deep to maneuver. 

Optional Starting Place #5:  It’s not the end of the world.  It’s not the end of the season.  It’s not even the end of September.  And when we finish the season at 14-2 and get to beat the Seahawks and 49ers in consecutive weeks of the NFC playoffs, it will all feel much better.

The Packers are 1-2.  We deserve to be 2-1, to be sure, but it’s certainly not too deep a hole from which to climb out.  I believe that Green Bay is still the class of the Division and that the cream will rise to the top in the end.  And so, while I am frustrated, I am not worried.  And I wouldn’t be surprised if an angry and refocused Packer team comes out and puts a beating on the Saints and Colts in the next two weeks, as a result. 

Closing the Books on Week 3

The most important game of the week remains to be played, of course.  But at this penultimate moment in Week 3, let’s take a moment to reflect back on what has happened to date.

At the end of Week 2, we noted that much of the league was tied with a .500.  Not anymore.

Duh.

We’ll have to wait until the conclusion of Week 4, of course, to see whether such parity continues to prevail.  As it is now, though, what we do observe is that there are almost no undefeated or winless teams left.  I can’t recall a time when there were so few teams with a “0” in their record after only three weeks of play. 

The only two winless teams that remain are the hapless Cleveland Browns and the tragic New Orleans Saints.  If we were told on September 1 that two teams would be winless three weeks in, how many of us would have chosen that particular pair?  Indeed, when in the past five years have those two teams been linked together in any sentence?   

The Browns, of course, are a case of the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object.  In this case, the unstoppable force is the Midas touch that Mike Holmgren has enjoyed and employed everyone he has been.  The immovable object, meanwhile, is the pattern of hopelessness and losing that has characterized the Browns for so many years.  Certainly that has been their hallmark ever since they were reinvented back in 1999.  Their fans felt like the ultimate losers when the late Art Modell unthinkably moved their beloved franchise out of town in 1995.  And even when they were winning, back in the days of Bernie Kosar and Marty Shottenheimer or Brian Sipes and the Kardiac Kids, they still always seemed to lose in the end.  They haven’t really been winners since the days of Paul Brown, which is almost unbelievable.  The last pictures of the Browns as winners are in black-and-white.  And thus far, that pattern of losing has been more than Midas Mike has been able to overcome.

The Saints, of course, are a different sort of a case.  Their franchise had more of the “loser” reputation than any team in the NFL for a lot of years.  And then they turned it around, won a Super Bowl, and presented themselves as one of the league’s perennial powerhouses. Then came the scandal. Then came the punishments.  And now has come the losing – including Sunday’s unthinkable collapse at home at the hands of the also winless Kansas City Chiefs.  Could the “Ain’ts” be back?

Meanwhile, just three undefeated teams remain after three weeks.  And here, too, we find an unlikely combination:  the Arizona Cardinals, the Atlanta Falcons, and the Houston Texans.  The Cardinals and Falcons were both playing undefeated teams this past Sunday, and they both won their contests decisively.  Make room on their bandwagons.  The Texans, too, proved themselves to be balanced, poised, and potent as they went into Denver and beat Peyton Manning and the Broncos.

The 49er bandwagon, meanwhile, is not nearly so crowded as it was one week ago.  After impressive wins against the Packers and Lions, San Francisco was universally heralded as the best team in the league. 

Whoops.

Well, now the best team in the league has the same record as the Minnesota Vikings.  And the Vikings hold the tie-breaker!  As a Packer fan, I’m not nearly so scared of the Vikings as I am of the 49ers, and so I was pleased by yesterday’s surprising result. 

As I was also pleased by the astonishing result of the Lions-Titans game.  That game was not broadcast here in the Green Bay market, but I was keeping an eye on that score on my computer.  When the Titans were ahead by two scores late in the 4th quarter, I was surprised but pleased, and I began to relax.  But then, oh no!  Another miracle Detroit comeback!  Two quick touchdowns in less than half a minute, including an improbable onside kick recovery and a successful Hail Mary by the back-up quarterback.  Yikes!  It looked like the Lions were simply a team of destiny. 

Now, though, they just look like idiots.  And their fans must be seething. 

The dark side of the football fan within me is delighted to see Detroit languishing at 1-2.  And I am so pleased by some of the surprising company they have at that record:  specifically, I’m thinking of the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots, two teams I deeply dislike.  Also at 1-2 on the young season are the two wundekind quarterbacks, RGIII and Andrew Luck.  With my distaste for hype, the dark side of me is pleased by their early struggles, as well.  And the fact that last year’s overhyped sensation, Cam Newton, is also at 1-2 does not make me shed any tears, either. 

It has been a fascinating season so far, and it was a truly notable and entertaining Week 3.  And the most important game of the week – at least for our purposes – remains to be seen. 

Week 3 Preview

As I noted in my previous post, there is a strange dearth this year of winless and undefeated teams.  Most of the league is at .500, including our own beloved Packers.  We will return to them at the very end.  In the meantime, though, I am fascinated especially this week by those match-ups of teams that are both 2-0 or both 0-2.

The 0-2 Chiefs visit the 0-2 Saints on Sunday.  Kansas City finished so strong last year, and I saw some preseason predictions that Romeo Crennel would win Coach of the Year in 2012.  But KC has underachieved so far this season.  As have the Saints, whose coach might also deserve consideration for Coach of the Year: he’s not coaching, and his absence seems to be proof of his value.  It’s hard to imagine either the Chiefs or Saints starting 0-3, but one of them has to.  Under ordinary circumstances, I’d guess it would be the Chiefs to be that team.  This year, however, I’m not so sure.

No other winless teams are squaring off this weekend, but several undefeated teams are.

The 2-0 Falcons visit the 2-0 Chargers.  Atlanta must be considered the favorite right now in their division, and perhaps the Chargers are also in theirs.  It should be a good game.  All else being equal, my instinct is to go with the home team when a West Coast trip is involved for someone from the east.

Meanwhile, in a battle of birds, the 2-0 Cardinals host the 2-0 Falcons.  Arizona stunned the NFL by beating the Patriots in Foxboro last Sunday.  The Eagles, meanwhile, are stunning the NFL by winning their games while playing so badly.  I know that Philly was supposed to be good this year -- and their record suggests they are -- but I’m not sold yet.  I’m leaning toward the Cardinals in this one, for sooner or later the Eagles’ turnovers have to catch up with them.

Within our own Division, the Packers are the only team that seems to be involved in a competitive game.  It’s hard to imagine that the 49ers won’t beat the tar out of the Vikings.  Conversely, I think the Bears will easily get the better of the Rams and the Lions will defeat the Titans.

The Packers, meanwhile, head out west to play the Seahawks on Monday Night Football.  Seattle is an enigma, and they have been for each of the past several seasons.  They can be world-beaters, or they can be mediocre.  It’s hard to know exactly what the Packers are going to get -– apart from a very noisy un-welcome, that is.

Seattle boasts a good-looking defense, and you’ve got to like the distinctive leadership, can-do attitude, and play-making ability of Russell Wilson.  Nevertheless, I believe that Green Bay is the superior team, top to bottom, and so I’m counting on a Packer victory.

In the end, I see the NFC North coming out of Week 3 looking like this:

1. Packers (2-1)
2. Lions (2-1)
3. Bears (2-1)
4. Vikings (1-2)

Back to Normal

Well, the sun is rising in the east again. 

Things are back to normal.  They are the way they should be.  Life makes sense again.  At least in the NFC North.

After that disturbing Week One aberration, the Packers are back atop their Division.  (Yes, I know we’re all 1-1, but I still regard us as in the lead by virtue of having the only in-the-division win.)  And so there is around Titletown a sense of regained equilibrium. 

The same cannot be said, I’m sure, for New Orleans.  Perhaps not Boston, either, during this particular week.  But especially New Orleans.

Roger Goodell better not be planning to retire to Louisiana, for I imagine he must be about the most hated man in the state these days.  His one-year suspension of Saints’ coach Sean Payton is surely responsible for one of the most explosive teams in the NFL sitting at 0-2 here in mid-September.

As a whole, meanwhile, the league is predominantly .500.  The entire AFC East and NFC North are both knotted up at 1-1.  In addition, 3 of 4 teams in the AFC North and the NFC East are also 1-1.  To be either winless or undefeated is already rare.  Remarkably so, considering that we’re only two weeks into the season. 

And those already thin ranks will be thinned considerably more in Week 3.  Two sets of undefeated teams (Falcons at Chargers, Eagles at Cardinals) face one another this week.  Also, something has to give when the 0-2 Chiefs visit the 0-2 Saints.  Both teams (and fan bases!) came into 2012 with pretty high hopes, but one of those teams is going to drop to 0-3.  Not many climb out of that hole. 

We’ll give more detailed thought to this coming weekend’s slate of games in a day or two.  For now, we just lean back and enjoy the fact that, for the moment in Green Bay, all’s right with the world.