Playoff Picture

With just five weeks to go now in the 2012 regular season, it may be time to take our first look at the playoff race.  As Packer fans, we won't concern ourselves at this point with the AFC picture.  But let's take a moment to consider the NFC.

If the season ended today, the Falcons and 49ers would enjoy the top two seeds and the first-round byes.  It's hard to imagine either one missing the playoffs, and so for them it's just a matter of jockeying for position within the NFC totem pole.  We'll give attention to that as we look at each week's match-ups.

Meanwhile, if the season ended today, the Bears would be the NFC North champ and the third seed, followed by the Giants as the NFC East champ and fourth seed.  The Packers and Seahawks would have the two wild card berths.  Just barely on the outside looking in at this point are the Buccaneers and Vikings at 6-5 (one game behind the current wild card teams), as well as the Redskins and Cowboys at 5-6. 

The Cowboys are an interesting case, for one would think that they'd need to win at least 4 of their remaining 5 games, but their last two are against the Saints and Redskins.  That's good scheduling.  It should make for exciting viewing as the season winds down. 

The Vikings are a game better than the Cowboys, but I don't think their chances are better.  They were shellacked by the Bears this weekend.  Now they have to go to Green Bay and then play the Bears again.  After a trip to St. Louis, they wrap up their season at Houston and hosting the Packers.  That's a tough road, and so I'm thinking the odds are long on the Vikings for this postseason.

The Seahawks are in a more favorable position.  While they do have games against the Bears and 49ers, their other three contests feature the Cardinals, Bills, and Rams.  They're all NFL teams, to be sure, but they are teams that a serious playoff contender expects to beat. 

While the numbers that Packer fans associate with the Giants right now is 38 and 10, the more pertinent numbers are 7and 4.  That is the current won-loss record of both Green Bay and New York.  Of course, the Giants have the head-to-head tie-breaker.  But they also have a pretty challenging schedule.  They go to Washington this week, followed by games against the Saints, Falcons, Ravens, and Eagles.  In short, their next 4 games will be against teams that are somewhere between good and great, as well as teams with a lot to play for.  It seems entirely possible to me that Green Bay will end the season with a better record than New York. 

The Packers' only non-Division opponent remaining is the Tennessee Titans in Green Bay on December 23rd.  I assume a "W" that week.  Meanwhile, we get to host the Lions, whom we managed to beat in Detroit, and who will likely have even less to play for when they arrive at Lambeau on December 9th.  We also face the Vikings twice -- a team whose best days seem to have been in the first half of the season.  And then there is the annual trip to Chicago.  We'll have to play better than we did in New York, of course, but I am quite sure that we have what it takes to beat these Bears.  And if we do, then I see us winning the NFC North and locking up the fourth -- and possibly even the third -- NFC seed. 

Coroner's Report

First order of business:  shave off the cheesy mustaches.  I'm not sure what got into both our coach and our quarterback, but it's not a good look for either one of them.  And when you're getting trounced on national TV, the mustached look looks only dopier. 

Second, I was wrong.  I had said that I didn't believe that this Packers team could get blown out, and so I was fearful of a close loss that would be placed at the feed of Mason Crosby.  Well, he did miss another field goal, but that was hardly the margin of victory for New York.  This was a most unhappy surprise to me.  I thought that we were too talented on both sides of the ball, as well as too mentally tough, to let a game get away from us like that.  Of course, it happens to the best, as just a few weeks of observing the NFL would prove. But it had been a long time since the Packers took that kind of a beating.  And I trust it will be a long time before it happens again.    

Third, you have to hand it to Tom Coughlin and the Giants.  You may not know what you're going to get from them on any ordinary week, but when they're facing a big game and a good team, they get the job done.  They did it in two Super Bowls against the Patriots (including, notably, against the undefeated Patriots in that year's stunner).  They did it in the playoffs last year against the Packers and 49ers.  And they went into San Francisco and dominated the 49ers again this season. 

Finally, what shall we identify as the cause of death in the wake of Sunday Night's disaster?   I believe it was a case of death by a thousand cuts.  We turned the ball over twice, while they didn't give it up at all.  They kept Manning clean, while Rodgers was sacked five times.  We were out-coached, out-muscled, out-adjusted, out-run, and out-performed.  Regrettably, there isn't any one thing that Packer fans can point to and say, "Ah, well if we just fix this, then we win that game."  No, for we would have needed to fix quite a number of things in order to have won last night.

Fortunately, however, unlike our previous loss to the Giants, this loss is not fatal.  It is not even that costly inasmuch as we're still just one game out of first in our Division, we'd still make the playoffs if the season ended today, and there's still a lot of football left to play.  Unlike January's loss to New York, we get to play again next week, which means that the team may embrace Sunday Night as a learning experience.  The Giants showed us what the perfect game plan looks like against these Packers, and so now we know.  Better to be exposed in November than in January.  And so I believe that the Packers will be businesslike about identifying the problems and fixing them.

More than that, I believe that the Packers won't lose another game this season.  Last night's embarrassment notwithstanding, I predict a 5-game winning streak to end the season, a 12-4 final record, another NFC North title, and a home game in the Wild Card round. 

If we meet the Giants again in the playoffs...?  Well, I wouldn't want to make a prediction about that at this point.  But I won't be surprised if we see them again.  And I don't think that they're actually 28 points better than we are.  

And, finally, there is this... For as crummy as I felt last night, and as unpleasant as the headlines are this morning, at least we're not Steeler fans. 

Week 12 Preview

A significant percentage of Week 12 is already in the books, what with the three Thanksgiving Day games, and the remaining slate does not feature a whole lot of compelling match-ups.  There are, however, some interesting story lines even within the poorer contests.  Are we watching, for example, the end of certain coaching eras in Philadelphia and San Diego?  Perhaps also, though less significantly, in Kansas City, Cleveland, and Arizona? 

The two prime time games this weekend are certainly at opposite ends of the spectrum.  The Football Night in America crew pulled the best match-up of the entire weekend, as the 7-3 Packers visit the 6-4 Giants.  More on that later.  The Monday Night Football folks at ESPN, meanwhile, are going to try to make interesting viewing out of the 2-8 Panthers' trip to 3-7 Philadelphia. 

The most interesting facet of the Monday Night game, it seems to me, is the juxtaposition of two over-hyped quarterbacks.  Both Michael Vick and Cam Newton have been heralded as sensational, multi-threat weapons.  And both have generated some highlights and some wins, to be sure.  Yet Newtom has fallen off considerably since his rookie debut, and Michael Vick has not proven himself to be a consistent winner in the NFL.  I doubt that that will be the dominant storyline on Monday Night, but with a combined 5-15 record, the question ought to be asked. 

Two games in our Conference have some interest for us.  The 9-1 Falcons at the 6-4 Buccaneers is likely to impact playoff seeding.  Meanwhile, the 7-2 49ers at the 5-5 Saints is a fascinating match-up.  San Fransisco is coming off of their impressive dismantling of the Chicago Bears, and they are coping now with an unexpected quarterback controversy.  The Saints, meanwhile, have climbed their way back from left-for-dead to relevancy.  They may not be able to contend seriously for their own division, but a wild card berth is within their reach.  The 49ers, meanwhile, have the Seahawks on their heels and lots of competition in the quest for bye weeks and home field advantage. 

Within our own Division, the 7-3 Bears host the 6-4 Vikings.  Chicago is reeling a bit right now, with two consecutive losses (including being humiliated by San Francisco), plus a concussed quarterback.  They head to Minnesota themselves in two weeks, with a visit from the Seahawks in between, so they cannot afford to lose this game.  And I don't think they will.  For while I never bought the 2012 Bears as one of the elite NFC teams, I do think they're better than the.  In any case, at this stage of the season, I'll welcome a loss by either one.

Finally, the undisputed game of the week is clearly the Packers-Giants match-up on Sunday Night.  New York has been the patron saint of inconsistency this year, including two consecutive clunkers against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.  But they sit atop a lousy division, they're coming off their bye week, and they sure had our number in the playoff game in Lambeau last January. 

I worry about the absence of Clay Matthews.  I worry about Eli Manning.  I worry about our inconsistent running game.  And I worry about the New York D-line.  But the most worrisome thing for me is Mason Crosby.  I don't think this Packers team is going to get blown out by anyone (cf. the Bears in San Francisco or the Jets on Thursday night).  If we lose, we'll lose by a few points.  And I'm not sure that Crosby is in the place right now mentally where he can be counted on to produce those few points that we may need.

Nevertheless, I like the Packers on the road, I like the revenge factor working in their favor, I like the way the defense came through (even without Matthews) in Detroit last week, I like Rodgers & Co. against New York's pass defense, and I like that we have been finding different ways to win this season.  And so, while I am admittedly nervous and anxious, I am looking for a Packer victory on the big stage in the big apple on Sunday Night. 

No Place Like Home for the Holidays

There were three NFL games on Thanksgiving Day, and each one was its own kind of ugly. 

I know that a certain percentage of home teams lose every week in the NFL, and yet there is something more poignant about it, it seems to me, on a holiday.  All these folks who have left their family and traditions behind in order to come out to the stadium, only to get their hearts stomped on.  And all three home teams did lose on Thanksgiving Day this year.

In the case of Detroit, yikes!  How much longer will Jim Schwartz last there?  And how many things can go wrong for these guys?  And how many ways will they find to lose?

I don't feel sorry for them, mind you.  I dislike Suh a great deal, I am not favorably impressed by Schwartz, and I am weary of the "megatron" hype.  Plus, while I don't have anything personal against Matthew Stafford, I continue to be inexplicably bothered by his resemblance to a grown-up Bobby Brady.  So all in all, I was happy to see the Texans throw another shovel of dirt onto the Lions' 2012 season yesterday.  But I am astonished at what has happened to them -- both in the small picture of individual games, and in the big picture of the season.  They are definitely in the running for the Most Underachieving Team award.

Also in the running, of course, are the other two losers from Thursday -- the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Jets.

The Cowboys are still in the hunt in the NFC East.  No one is running away with that division yet, but they do seem to be a bipolar group down there in Dallas.  One moment they are a talent-laden team that can score a ton of points quickly.  The next moment they are the Keystone Cops.  The Redskins buried Dallas early, arousing the hometown fans' anger.  But then, what made matters worse, is that Dallas made a heroic and promising comeback.  They had pulled off such a comeback against the Browns, and it looked like they were going to do it again.  But, no.  And so the fan went from furious, to hopeful, to disappointed.  That's a rough and unhappy ride. 

And then there were the Jets.  A New York newspaper portrayed them as a clown car at the beginning of the season, and they are living up to that billing.  That second quarter is one for the ages.  I wouldn't be surprised if Jet players and fans are still working through those 15 minutes of their lives with therapists ten years from now.  Wow.  The Patriots could have played the other three quarters with one arm tied behind their back, for their second quarter onslaught was by itself enough to beat the bumbling Jets.  

So the quarterback controversy remains.  The all-talk-but-no-results reputation continues to mount.  And the irascible New York fan base grows more and more impatient. 

Now it may be that, if the Jets (and especially their coach) were not such talkers, their humiliations would not garner so much attention.  After all, who outside of Kansas City is really paying much attention to that 2012 disaster?  But the Jets have made themselves so high-profile, so full of bluster.  They annually scream out, "Pay attention to us!", and so we do.  And thus their troubles become so scrutinized. 

So it was a memorably bad day for home teams on this holiday.  Let's hope the trend continues through Sunday night!

Ten Down, Six to Go

The first five weeks of the season we’re pretty shaky.  After last year’s 15-1 blitzkrieg against the rest of the league, three losses before Halloween was a truly disorienting experience. But the last five weeks of this season have been a tremendous improvement.

The Packers are on a five-game win streak now.  For all the hype we had to endure along the way about the Falcons, the Texans, the Bears, and the 49ers, Green Bay and Denver are the teams sporting the longest active winning streaks.

Plus, we have clawed our way back to the top of the NFC North and currently have the third seed in the entire Conference. 

Speaking of our own Division, we’re 2-0 there, which is a great start. 

The Bears, as I predicted, have fallen on hard times.  Everyone was treating them like they were hot stuff, but I knew they had built a misleading record and reputation.  Remember that scene in Rocky III when Mickey breaks the news to Rocky about the quality of his recent opponents?  Well, I knew that the Texans and 49ers were going to be Clubber Lang to the over-inflated Bears.  Houston beat ‘em, and then San Francisco humiliated them.  Beautiful stuff.  Now, perhaps, everyone will stop to consider the combined record of the teams that Chicago had beaten.

Meanwhile, this past Sunday’s gutty win in Detroit was not a thing of beauty, but it was magnificent.  The defense was huge.  And while the offense struggled, the bottom line is that they scored 10 points in the final minutes of the game.  That’s what great teams manage to do when they need to, and the Packers did it against a very tough Detroit D.

I was concerned that the Lions had the recipe on defense for stopping us. Namely, get great pressure with just your front four.  To hurry Aaron on the one end  while covering all his receivers on the other: that seems to be the way to beat us.  The Lions did a nice job of that for much of the game.  But, again, Green Bay moved the ball when they needed to.

Detroit fans (and evidently their coaching staff, too) came unraveled at the end.  And understandably so.  The Lions gave up the lead at home, they completely bungled their own two comeback opportunities, and they lost a game that they frankly needed more than their opponents did.  Now they’re wallowing at 4-6, three games out of first in the Division; they’re 0-4 in the Division; they’ve got a short week; and the Texans are coming to town.  (Oh, and the Tigers got swept, too.)

Finally, the Packers have some problems of their own.  Most significantly, Mason Crosby’s head is an obvious concern coming out of Sunday’s win.  The fact that he didn’t cost us the game in the end should help his mental situation.  But since the Packers’ have outscored their opponents thus far by 56 points – i.e., an average of 5.6 points per game – it’s going to be essential that our kicker is able to come through in the clutch.  By comparison, the Patriots have scored 133 more points than their opponents, the Texans 113 and the 49ers 111.  With those kinds of margins, a missed field goal isn’t fatal.  But the Packers need Crosby to get it together.  Fast.    

Week 10 Preview

It’s the Packers’ week off, and it seems to have come at a very good time.  It seems to me that there is something ideal anyway about getting your bye right near the halfway point in the season.  On top of that, we are clearly dinged up and in need of the extra time to heal.  And, in addition to the theoretical and the physical merits of a Week 10 bye, the emotional timing is also favorable.  We are coming off of a 4-game win streak, and so we don’t have to languish for an extra week with a bitter taste in our mouths.  Plus, 4 of our next 5 games will be within the Division, which means that everything is won or lost in this stretch run after our bye.

For now, though, we get to sit back and watch the other guys knock heads.  And some of the contests on tap are really quite interesting.

More and more eyes are trained on the Atlanta Falcons as they flirt with perfection.  They certainly don’t seem as dominant to me as the 2011 Packers were, and we got tripped up.  I doubt that Atlanta will make it to 16-0, therefore.  Still, the record makes each of their games that much more interesting, including this week’s visit to the division-rival, down-on-their-luck New Orleans Saints.  The Falcons are clearly the better, more balanced team.  Still, Drew Brees and that offense can keep New Orleans in any game, and I like the possibilities that come with the Saints playing at home against a division foe.

Another match-up of division rivals is scheduled in Philadelphia, where the struggling Eagles will host the struggling Cowboys.  This is one of those games that has a must-win feel to it on both sidelines.  Add to that the rivalry elements and the soap opera qualities of both teams, and it promises to be quite a game.

And speaking of soap operas, I give you the New York Jets.  They’ve been in the headlines a lot this past week, but not for any truly good reason.  There’s always a lot of talk coming out of the Jets, and a fair amount of talk about the Jets, as well.  Now they have to travel cross-country to take on the 5-4 Seahawks, which will be a tough defense against which Sanchez will try to prove that he’s still the man.  Plus, there is the added challenge of going up against his old coach.  Tough stuff and a fascinating game.

Meanwhile, within our own Division, there are two games, and they’re both really good. 

On Sunday afternoon, the 5-4 Vikings will host the 4-4 Lions.  This season’s performances notwithstanding, I am frankly more afraid of the Lions’ capacity to make a run during the last half of the year, and so I’ll be reluctantly pulling for Minnesota.  I won’t be pulling hard, though, for either outcome works for me.  One or the other will be knocked down another peg below the Packers, and that suits me just fine.

And then there are the Bears.  They have been feasting on bad teams for weeks now, and making quite a name for themselves while doing it.  This week, however, they will finally have to face a worthy opponent.  And, frankly, I expect them to get embarrassed. 

And it will happen on national TV, at that, for the Texans at Chicago is the Sunday Night match-up this week.  Excellent!  I know that the Bears defense has earned quite a reputation this year, but I like Matt Schaub’s chances against it.  And, on the other side, I expect Houston’s defense to completely flummox – and likely flatten – Jay Cutler.

Perhaps this is all wishful thinking on my part, but I’m looking for the Bears to stink it up at home this week.  And then they won’t have any time to lick their wounds before they have to go out to San Francisco on Monday Night Football, to be publicly humiliated once again. 

I say the emperor in Chicago has no clothes.  And I think their next two opponents will be pointing it out to the world.

So the game-of-the-week in Week 10 is clearly Sunday evening’s Football Night in America match-up.  NBC has to love their draw for this week: two 7-1 teams going at it in prime time. 

Do you suppose that anyone will think to mention the “1” that they have in common?

Week 9 Preview

Week 9 in the NFL is noteworthy for its paucity of powerhouse battles.  Only two games feature opponents with winning records.  The 4-3 Steelers at the 6-2 Giants is the headliner of the weekend, and the 4-3 Dolphins at the 4-3 Colts is its homely little sister. 

Both Pittsburgh and New York have pulled a foul ball or two this season, but the Giants are clearly in better shape overall.  Plus, I think they’re the better team.  Plus, because of the recent east coast chaos, the Steelers’ routine will be dramatically thrown off by having to fly into New York on game day itself.  I like the Giants in this, the best game of the week. 

The Dolphins-Colts tilt appears on paper to be an important AFC match-up.  Personally, I can’t work up much enthusiasm over it.

Meanwhile, though there are no other games between two teams with winning records, a couple of games are of interest because of the desperation involved.  The 3-4 Eagles at the 2-5 Saints is a good case in point.  Everyone thinks that both Andy Reid and Michael Vick’s necks are on the chopping block, while the Saints are in an absolutely dismal situation, yet too proud and talented to fold their tents for 2012.

Another case is the Panthers trip against the Redskins.  Both teams (and their fans) came into the season with much higher hopes than have been realized so far.  Cam Newton is suffering a most severe sophomore slump, and he is not handling it with grace.  RGIII, meanwhile, is showing great promise, but his Redskins are generally underperforming at 3-5.

Elsewhere, desperate meets undefeated when the Cowboys travel to Atlanta.  Dallas, like Philly, is another instance where coach and quarterback are under intense scrutiny and pressure, and a 3-5 record at the halfway mark would create a bit of a steep hill for them.  On the other hand, it’s going to be hard for them to get to .500 this week against the 7-0 Falcons in Atlanta.  Still, the birds have to come down to earth sometime this season.  Could this be the week?  I doubt it.

Within our own division, our rivals all hit the road this week, while we stay at home.  The struggling, undisciplined Lions will face the team we just beat: the 1-6 Jaguars.  I think Jacksonville is better than its record, and so I have some hope that they might pull off the upset.

Meanwhile, the bloom has come off Minnesota’s rose in recent weeks, and they face a tough road test now against Seattle.  Again, I think this is another one that could go our way.  In fact, if I had to bet on one of the NFC North games going the right way this weekend, this would be the one I’d put some money on.  

Finally, the Bears visit the Tennessee Titans.  As I mentioned earlier this week, I haven’t bought into the 6-1 Bears yet.  Consider the foes they have vanquished thus far: the Colts (4-3), the Rams (3-5), the Cowboys (3-4), the Jaguars (1-6), the Lions (3-4), and the Panthers (1-6), the latter being a mere 1-point victory at home.  By record, therefore, the best team that the 2012 Bears have beaten was the Colts – i.e., the worst team from 2011 in a rookie QB’s first NFL game.  I’m not impressed by that resume. 

All of which is not to say that I’m picking the Titans.  But Tennessee did manage to beat the Steelers a few weeks back, and I think they might surprise the Bears.  More to the point, though, is that one preview of this game referred to “the mighty Bears,” which I think is ridiculous.  Three of their next four games are against the Texans, 49ers, and Seahawks.  Ask me in a month how mighty they are.

Then there is the Cardinals’ visit to Lambeau Field.  The forecast calls for temps in the low to mid 40s, which is just fine for a team coming up from Arizona (where it will be 80-degrees at kickoff.

Peter King offers this interesting factoid about the 2012 Cardinals:

Cards opened 4-0, averaging 23 points a game. They're 0-4 since, averaging nine.

So I guess we’re catching them at a good time.  Plus, they’re coming off a huge disappointment at home on Monday Night against the division-rival 49ers.  It’s a short week for them, they’re on the road, and they’re not playing well.  The Packers, meanwhile, are riding a three-game win streak, they’re at home, they may be getting Jordy Nelson back, and they see a light at the end of their tunnel as next week is their bye.  If Green Bay doesn’t win this game, I will be stunned. No, I’m looking for an all-around good week for Packer fans.