Week Fourteen -- A Look Ahead

Week 14 begins on Thursday Night. We'll start there, and work our way through games of generic interest to NFL fans, followed by some consideration of the games that are of particular significance to us as Packer fans.

First, we observe that the wheels have been coming off in Pittsburgh, as the defending champions have now lost 4 in a row. The latest loss may be the most devastating, for you would surely expect the Steelers to beat the dysfunctional Raiders in Pittsburgh. You have to win your home games. And you have to beat the teams you're supposed to beat. Instead, the Steelers are wallowing at 6-6, and notching another Conference loss didn't help.

But, they get to play the Browns this Thursday Night, which has been good news this season for everyone but the Buffalo Bills.

I wonder what the Vegas odds are on a Cleveland win tonight...? Whatever they are, I'll be pulling for the Browns. I'd like the Steelers to be effectively out of the playoff race when we head to Pittsburgh next week.

Meanwhile, the NFL's two unbeaten teams both face interesting challenges as they seek 13-0.

The Saints travel to Atlanta to face the Falcons. Atlanta really needs this game; it's a must-win situation for them. And, if it weren't for their several key injuries, I would think they could pull it off. As it is, though, I expect New Orleans to keep getting the job done. (And, truthfully, from our perspective as Packer fans, another Falcon loss serves our purposes very well.)

Meanwhile, the undefeated Colts host the Denver Broncos. Many commentators -- including none other than Tony Dungy -- have made a great point of the fact that the Broncos are the team the Colts most dread. In terms of recent history, Denver has been Indy's nemesis. I hadn't realized that myself, for I have been more conscious of the Colts' Conference rivalry with the Patriots. The game is much more important to Denver than it is to Indy. On the other hand, the Colts are playing at home. Personally, I give the nod to Manning & Co.

Also of some interest is the Panthers trip to New England. The match-up itself is not particularly compelling, but it is fascinating to observe what may be happening to the Patriots. There was the amazing loss in Indy. Then the drubbing at the hands of the Saints. And now a failure to close out Miami in the 4th quarter. The Patriots have lost significant 4th-quarter leads in three games this season, they haven't won a game in an opponent's stadium yet in 2009, they have now lost consecutive games for the first time since the middle of the 2006 season, and Brady had consecutive games with multiple interceptions for the first time since 2003!

Frankly, I do expect New England to win their game this week, but still I wonder if we may be watching the last days of Rome.

Finally, the Bengals' trip to Minnesota should be a fascinating match-up. Don Banks (SI.com) took the opportunity of last weekend's loss in Arizona to recall some pretty damning statistics about Favre's late-season swoons. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/don_banks/12/08/patriots/index.html

Personally, I don't think that was the primary issue. I just think the Vikings are not the elite team that all the hype and their inflated record suggest. Accordingly, I think the contest with the Bengals should be very interesting to watch. If Cincy pulls it off, then suddenly instead of vying with the Saints for the best record in the NFC, the Vikings would find themselves in a race with the Cardinals for the other first-round bye.

Well, that covers the waterfront on games of general interest. Now we turn our attention to the games that mean the most to the Packers...

The Eagles and Giants play this weekend, which is a game of mammoth importance for both of them, and also has great significance for us. The problem is: for whom shall we cheer?

Currently, the Eagles are just ahead of us in the wild card race, and so a New York win sets us up the climb in the seedings a bit. On the other hand, the Giants are the team right on our heels and mostly likely to knock us out of our current sixth-and-final spot if we should lose. And so a Philly win would give us more security. Hmmm, what to do?

Elsewhere, while we may be somewhat conflicted when the Eagles face the Giants, there will be no such ambivalence when the Chargers come to Dallas. The Cowboys have become notorious for December collapses, and they were right on schedule last Sunday with their loss to the flailing Giants. Now they face no easy task with the AFC West leading Chargers, and we'll be San Diego fans for sure on Sunday afternoon.

Dallas has the toughest schedule of the 3 NFC East teams competing for the postseason berths, and it's easy to envision them sliding right out of their Division-leader perch into a spot in front of the TV come January.

The Monday Night game in San Francisco is also of some interest to us. A Cardinal win against the 49ers would lock up the Division for them, which speeds them toward my personal goal for them: namely, that they have nothing to play for when we arrive in Arizona on Week 17. (Unless of course they are playing for the second seed in the NFC -- see above.)

Finally, speaking of teams that have nothing to play for, enter the Bears. They started their season with a terrible performance in Lambeau, and as 2009 has unfolded, it turns out that what happened that Sunday Night was no fluke. The Cutler experiment has been a tremendous disappointment. Matt Forte has been a disappointment. The Bears defense has been a disappointment. And so all signs point to a Green Bay victory on Sunday afternoon.

Except for this... Lovie Smith has, from the beginning of his tenure in Chicago, made it his personal mission to beat the Packers. And he's been pretty effective at it. And so, even though the Bears have nothing to play for on paper, they've got something to play for if they have any sense of pride, any appetite for revenge, any intra-Division animus, and any desire to keep Smith as the head coach for 2010.

That said, the Packers are the better team, they're on a roll, and I expect them to get the job done this week, as well.