Super Bowl History v. 2

In my previous post, I provided a chart of all the Super Bowl winners and losers since the Packers beat the Chiefs in the game that was only retroactively called “Super Bowl I.”

Let us as Packer fans agree that, in the big picture of NFL history (i.e., including the pre-Super Bowl era), the Green Bay has the franchise with the most NFL championships.

Somewhat unfortunately, however, contemporary debates tend to focus on just the Super Bowl era.  And so let us consider the winners and losers on that previous chart to see just which franchise is the greatest. 

If our basis for evaluation is just the achievement of making it to the Super Bowl, win or lose, then the Pittsburgh Steelers take the prize, for they have been to 8 Super Bowls, winning 6 of them.  The only other team to make it to the big game 8 times is the Dallas Cowboys, though their record is not quite as good at 5-3. (The Broncos, incidentally, are next, with 6 appearances, though only 2 wins.  And then, after that, quite a few teams -- including the Packers -- have made 5 appearances.)

Meanwhile, one might argue that merely making it to the Super Bowl is not enough:  you have to win it.   After all, do we consider the 0-4 Vikings or the 0-4 Bills to be great Super Bowl franchises? 

As it happens, if we measure just in terms of actual Super Bowl wins, the Steelers claim first prize again, for they have 6 Lombardi Trophies.  The Cowboys and 49ers are right behind at 5, and the Packers figure into the list next with 4. 

The 49ers, meanwhile, are an interesting case.  San Francisco boasts a 5-0 record in Super Bowls, which arguably makes them the greatest franchise in the history of the big game.  After all, they have won 100% of the Super Bowls in which they have participated and -- get this -- they are the only team with more than 1 Super Bowl win to have won 100% of their appearances.  In other words, no one else has played in 4 Super Bowls and won them all; or 3; or even 2!  All the other members of the “100% Club” are one-and-done teams (Bucs, Jets, Ravens, Saints).

Interestingly, if we’re going by winning percentage in the Super Bowl, the Packers come in right after those 100% teams with an 80% record.  The Steelers and Giants are next in line behind us at 75% each.

Last of all, I ran a calculation that rewarded both number of appearances and number of wins.  I gave each team two points for winning the game and one point for simply playing in it, even when they lost.  By that calculation, the Steelers come in first with 14 points, and the Cowboys are right behind at 13.  Then come the perfect 49ers with 10 points, followed close behind by the Packers and Patriots with 9 each. 

So, who is the greatest franchise of the Super Bowl era?  Ironically, the much-hyped Patriots, at 3-3 in the Big Game, are not part of the discussion by any of these means of measuring.  The answer must be either the Steelers or the 49ers. 

Of course, if the Packers repeat next year, then they move themselves into that discussion, as well.

No matter, though.  For we are the best team of all in the present, and I believe we are also demonstrably the best franchise of all in the larger history, as well. 

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Super Bowl,Pittsburgh Steelers,San Francisco 49ers

Carpe Diem

During the days leading up to Super Bowl XLV, I heard so many current and former players make the same observation: “It’s just so hard to get there.”

The rookie who happens to be on a team that goes to the Super Bowl might be easily deceived.  Because the experience comes right away, he might not realize how rare it is: how many players don’t make it back, and how many don’t make it at all.  And he can hardly fathom the likelihood that his rookie achievement might not be matched throughout the rest of his career.

And so, from a wide variety of perspectives, I heard players making that same observation again and again.

As Packer fans, of course, we recognize the truth of it.  We have fielded teams ranging from fairly competitive to excellent just about every season since the beginning of the Ron Wolf era.  And yet, in all those years, we’ve been to the Big Game just three times -- and that’s still a better rate than the majority of other teams in the NFL!

All of which brings to mind the sorry case of those teams that fail to seize the day.

There are some seasons, you know, when the stars are all aligned.  You have all the right people in place -- all the pieces -- and so you know that it’s your year, it’s your turn.  And if you don’t get it done that year, well…

I think we have seen that phenomenon illustrated in our own Division in each of the past two seasons.  This year’s Chicago Bears and last year’s Minnesota Vikings were both charmed teams.  Everything clicked.  Everything went their way.  It was their moment! 

Yet both lost in the Conference Championship game.  And, in each case, it was a game they could have won.

But who seriously thought that the 2010 Vikings could duplicate what the previous year’s team accomplished?  It was too perfect.  They couldn’t possibly do that again.  And, likewise, who really believes that the 2011 Bears will be able to pull off the record that this year’s squad managed? 

The most bitter example of all, of course, is the near-perfect Patriots of a few years ago.  To go undefeated in the regular season and through the playoffs only to lose in the Super Bowl…?!  That is the ultimate version of failing to seize the day.

Going into 2010, many prognosticators picked the Packers to win it all.  This was our year, it seemed.  We had all the pieces in place, and people realized it.

But no one expected us to lose so many key pieces to season-ending injuries.  No one expected us to squeak in as a 6th-seed Wild Card team.  No one expected us to have to win on the road for three straight games against the NFC’s best teams in order to get to Dallas. 

Ours was a quite different case than the 2007 Patriots, 2009 Vikings, or 2010 Bears.  This was not the year where everything went right, but we blew it in the end.  On the contrary, this was the year when so many, many things went wrong -- yet we won it all in the end!  Remarkable, really.  And very satisfying.

And while no one expected the 2008 Patriots to go undefeated again, or the 2010 Vikings to make it back to the NFC Championship Game, I reckon that a fair number of folks will figure the Packers to be favorites to repeat.

Next year may be “our year.” Yet we managed to seize the day today!

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Minnesota Vikings,Chicago Bears,New England Patriots,Super Bowl XLV

What They’re Saying

Is it eavesdropping when it is broadcasted?

In the wake of Sunday’s great culmination to the Packers’ season, I find myself very interested in what others are saying.  That is, what fans of other teams are saying about us. 

Here is how the Pittsburgh Steelers official web site characterized the game.  For a piece written immediately after the painful conclusion of the contest, it is commendably analytical and balanced.  A very interesting and thoughtful review of the game.

In the course of their analysis, they make note of the several Steeler turnovers, each of which was obviously critical.  After all, the Packers scored 21 points off of the three Pittsburgh turnovers, and in a game that your team lost by just 6, that has to be a bitter pill to swallow.

The write-up puts particular emphasis on the Mendenhall fumble, calling it “the turning point.”

I have heard that point of view from national media outlets, as well.  The thesis is that, if Mendenhall hadn’t fumbled, Pittsburgh would have driven the rest of the way for a touchdown, take the lead, steal all momentum, and probably win the game. The ever-opinionated Skip Bayless is especially a proponent of this line of reasoning. 

That kind of “if-ism” builds a pretty flimsy case, however.  After all, such critical turnovers were the very hallmark of Green Bay’s playoff run.  Think of the Philly and Chicago games, in particular (though our defense was also effectively greedy in Atlanta). 

Why is it fair to assume that the Steeler offense would march successfully to the end zone but not fair to assume that the Packer defense would come up with the big play to stop them?  The latter is precisely what happened in every Packer playoff game.  The latter is precisely what happened in the Super Bowl.  That kind of play by our defense was the rule, not the exception.

Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette also offers what is, in my view, a very balanced and healthy view of the game.  And, more than just the game, it is a wholesome view of the whole Steeler season.  It is not a bitter reliving of the Steelers’ mistakes, a wistful “If only” lament, or a resentful sniping at the Packers.  It is the kind of piece that I took some weeks to welcome after Green Bay lost to the Broncos in Super Bowl XXXII, but it was an important piece for a Steeler fan to write and a Steeler audience to read.

On the other hand, Chicago Bear talk radio is not nearly so whole-some in its outlook as these Pittsburgh writers are.  Of course, that may be the nature of the genre.  Still, they are showing much more resentment toward their rival to the north than the Steeler fans seem to be.  Indeed, with regard to the Steeler fans, here is what one friend from Pittsburgh wrote to me about what happened in Texas:

Our local newscasters who were in Arlington for the game said that the Packers/Steelers crowd was a good natured group…and as people left the stadium, there was genuine admiration and positive thoughts from each side to the other; a "lovefest" he called it, with invitations from both sides to come and visit and see you next year!

Ah, but the Bears fans… there is no “lovefest” with them!  I heard some Chicago sports talk radio hosts dreading aloud this coming summer, when Chicago residents would head up to Lake Geneva, the Dells, and Door County, and have to face the boasting Packer fans.  The radio hosts were inviting Bears fans to call up with suggested retorts for when Green Bay fans flaunted their Super Bowl win. 

The old saying, of course, is that the best revenge is living well.  Or, in this case, it would be playing well.  But Bears fans have to wait seven long months before they can begin to exact that sort of revenge.

Perhaps the President's tardiness in making the customary congratulatory phone call to the Super Bowl winners reflects yet another bitter Bears fan.  Still, as Charles Woodson predicted, the team he didn’t come to see in the Super Bowl is going to come to see him in the White House!

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Pittsburgh Steelers,Super Bowl,Chicago Bears,President Obama

Random Thoughts

More than a full day after the clock ticked to zero in Dallas, I still feel a lingering euphoria from the game.  And my thoughts about the game and the Packers are buzzing in a dozen directions.  Do you find yourself thinking about these things, too…?

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The Packers went to Super Bowl I, won it, and then returned the following year to play in Super Bowl II.

The Packers went to Super Bowl XXXI, won it, and then returned the following year to play in Super Bowl XXXII.

The Packers went to Super Bowl XLV, won it, and…

Can there possibly be a team in the NFL with shorter odds for making it to Indy next year?  We’re the second youngest team, and we managed to win it all this year -- plus, if anything, we promise to field a better team next year than we did this past Sunday!

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How far into Brett’s career was it that they named a street in Green Bay “Favre Pass” for him?  How far into Holmgren’s tenure was it that they named a stretch of road “Holmgren Way” for him?

And how long will it be before they are putting up new signs in the neighborhood around Lambeau Field with “Rodgers” or “McCarthy” on them?

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Have you seen or heard any of the plethora of Aaron Rodgers interviews since Sunday night?  Boy, he’s a good guy, and altogether likeable! 

I suspect that, apart from the folks who were already fans of the Packers going into the season, a lot of other folks were pulling for Green Bay during Sunday’s game.  And now, the more Aaron and the rest of this classy squad becomes familiar to the folks outside of Wisconsin, the more I think fans all around the country will love, follow, and cheer for the Packers. 

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What does it mean that we played the second half of the Super Bowl without Charles Woodson and Donald Driver?  Here are the two great veterans of the team -- the guys for whom everyone especially wanted to win the ring.  Is it a sad twist of fate that those two couldn’t finish the game?  Is it a sweet ‘team thing’ that the rest of the guys went out in the second half to win it for their teammates?  Or is it a symbol of the future?  A symbol that this team can go out and get it done after these two retire?  Or a symbol that this team cannot do it without them, inasmuch as the Steelers outscored the Packers 15-10 in the second half?

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Are Terrible Towels absorbent enough for drying tears and blowing noses?

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Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Pittsburgh Steelers,Super Bowl,Aaron Rodgers,Charles Woodson,Donald Driver,Brett Favre,Mike Holmgren,Mike McCarthy

No Consolation Prizes

Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, and Drew Brees beat out Aaron Rodgers for the Pro Bowl.  Tom Brady raked in all the votes for league MVP -- an award many preseason prognosticators expected Aaron Rodgers to earn.  Troy Polamalu edged out Clay Matthews for Defensive Player of the Year.  And Mike McCarthy got not a single vote for Coach of the Year, even though he managed to navigate a hospital ward all the way to Dallas. 

Granted, it was very satisfying to go into Chicago and win the George Halas Trophy for NFC Champs right out from under the Bears.  Yet, still, there were no consolation prizes for this year’s Packers squad.  They had to win it all.

And they did!

It was not a perfect performance.  The careless fumble on the initial Steeler punt.  Four critical dropped passes, including a couple that could have broken it open.  We didn’t seem to get adequate pressure on Roethlisberger.  We didn’t get the running game satisfactorily established.  We lacked offensive rhythm and production throughout much of the second and third quarters.  And Rodgers didn’t seem to be the multi-threat QB that everyone talked about so much before the game -- he stayed locked in the pocket like he was a Peyton Manning or Dan Marino. 

At the same time, however, it was a remarkable performance.  One for the ages! 

Rodgers was nearly flawless.  The defense forced three turnovers, including a pick-six by Nick Collins.  You never heard of Polamalu all game, and barely heard of James Harrison.  And, perhaps best of all, we endured critical injuries, momentum swings, and classic Steeler comeback pushes in order to win Super Bowl XLV. 

World Champions, Baby!  What a season, what a team, what a game!

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Pittsburgh Steelers,Aaron Rodgers,Troy Polamalu,Ben Roethlisberger,Super Bowl

Who Will Win?

^{“The first to plead his case seems right, until another comes and examines him.”}

(Proverbs 18:17 NASB)

I was reminded of the above proverb when I read SI.com experts' predictions for Sunday’s Super Bowl.  Each one offers his final score prediction, followed by his reasoning about why the Steelers or Packers will win, plus a personal guarantee and a predicted MVP.  It makes for interesting reading.  And it also illustrates how close these two teams seem to be and how hard-to-predict this game is. 

In any case, I read why one guy thinks that the Steelers will win, and I am convinced.  But then I read why the next guy thinks the Packers will win, and it makes perfect sense -- of course he’s right! 

To further complicate things, they present us with cases by eight different experts.  And, go figure, 4 of the them are picking the Steelers and 4 of them are picking the Packers.

Mike & Mike were also split in their predictions.  Greeny is going with Pittsburgh, while Golic is picking the Pack. 

Here is an interesting detail, though, about the SI.com predictions -- a detail which is both consistent with what I have read and heard elsewhere, as well as with my own thinking on the game:  the average predicted margin of victory among those who are picking the Steelers is 4.25; the average margin of victory among those picking the Packers, however, is 9.75!  The folks who believe in the Packers, therefore, are clearly more bullish on them than those who believe in the Steelers.  Indeed, two of the guys are predicting a double-digit Green Bay victory.   

Meanwhile, NFL.com's Gil Brandt also bears witness to how closely matched these two teams are.  He takes an unusual approach to calculating the victor based on selected historical trends.  By the end of his system, he envisions a tie game at the end of regulation, with the Packers eking out an overtime victory.  (Personally, I could do without that kind of excitement!)

Interestingly, over at ESPN.com, a very different scenario unfolds.  They offer the abbreviated predictions of FIFTY-ONE different experts, and those folks are not at all evenly divided.  In that court of pundit opinion, 39 folks anticipate a Packer victory, while only 12 expect the Steelers to win.

That’s very encouraging reading, of course, but it all counts for exactly nothing when the players take the field. 

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Pittsburgh Steelers,Super Bow predictions,SI.com,ESPN.com,NFL.com

On the Fast Track to the Lombardi Trophy

I mentioned in a post last week that my hope -- perhaps even my hunch -- is that the Dallas venue would work in the Packers’ favor this Sunday.

Well, it turns out that I am not alone in that opinion.  In fact, I am in good company.  A lot of it!

At NFL.com, they asked 9 different experts about the notoriously fast track at the new Cowboy stadium.  “Who will benefit most?” was the question posed for their consideration.  And they were all with one accord in saying that the venue favored the Packers. 

It’s a strange business for those of us who remember rooting for the Packers during their 90s heydays.  They were a bunch of “mudders” back then, who were unbeatable in the cold and snow but vulnerable in domes and on turf.  Now, however, Green Bay is known for its speed on both sides of the ball, and our QB is a California guy who has some favorite shoes that he gets to wear indoors.

Don Banks at SI.com tells us about the shoes.  And he explains at greater length why the fast track is well-suited to the Packers’ style, personnel, and game plan. 

It’s all very encouraging reading.  And it brings me back to what I suggested last week:  I’m sure we wouldn’t be favored at Heinz Field, and I’m not even sure if we’d be favored at Lambeau.  But there is something about this team indoors.  I believe the perfect conditions are perfect for us.

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Pittsburgh Steelers,Super Bowl,Aaron Rodgers,Don Banks

Common Foes

As I ponder the much-heralded match-up in Dallas this coming Sunday, I am looking for clues as to how the game might go. 

On the one hand, these two teams played just over a year ago: a dramatic contest in which both teams put up lots of points, and the Steelers pulled out a last-second, one-point victory.  Packer fans will remember that game as the one in which Roethlisberger (who threw for over 500 yards against us!) set the blueprint for what the Cardinals did to knock us out of the first round of the playoffs just a few weeks later.

On the other hand, with these two teams boasting the two best defenses in the league during the regular season, it’s hard to imagine them combining for more than 70 points again.

Since Green Bay and Pittsburgh did not play this season, I wonder if we might glean some insight from looking at the opponents they had in common this year.  Specifically, the Packers and Steelers shared 5 common foes during the regular season and playoffs: the Falcons, Dolphins, Bills, Patriots, and Jets.

In the first two instances, the results are somewhat discouraging.  The Steelers beat the Falcons 15-9, while the Packers lost to Atlanta 17-20 in the regular season.  (On the other hand, Green Bay famously returned to Atlanta in the second round of the playoffs and beat the tar out of them, 48-21.)

The case of the Dolphins is another one in which the Steelers won where the Packers lost.  Pittsburgh beat Miami 23-22, while we lost to the Dolphins 20-23.  All close scores, but still we came up on the short end.

Both the Steelers and the Packers (and nearly everyone else!) managed to beat the Bills this year, though Green Bay’s effort was far more impressive.  Pittsburgh won by a mere 19-16 score, while Green Bay demolished Buffalo, 34-7. 

Meanwhile, the Jets are an interesting case.  New York beat the Steelers in the regular season 22-17, while the Packers went into New York and shut them out, 9-0.  Of course, as the Packers did with the Falcons, the Steelers exacted revenge in the postseason, beating the Jets 24-19. 

Finally, the most interesting case of a common foe may be the New England Patriots (whom many thought would be in Dallas this Sunday instead of the Steelers).  New England beat both Pittsburgh and Green Bay this year, although they had an easier time with the Steelers than the Packers.  Behind our second-string QB, you remember, we went into New England and lost 27-31, thanks in some measure to that infamous kick return by a lineman!  The Patriots handled the Steelers rather easily, however, 39-21.

And those Patriots, it seems, are being cited as the team that holds the key for beating the Steeler defense… 

Cris Collinsworth and Phil Simms recall how the Patriots spread out the Pittsburgh defense and moved the ball effectively on them, noting that the Packers have an even better receiving corps for that strategy.  Brady threw 40 times for 350 yards and 3 TDs that day -- and that was in Heinz Field.  How much better could the Packers fare on the fast track in Dallas?!

Of course, common foes can only tell you so much.  After all, the Browns beat the Patriots, and the Patriots beat the Steelers, but the Steelers annihilated the Browns.  Still, a look at the 5 common foes between this year’s Super Bowl contenders makes for interesting comparisons.  And the particular case of the Patriots is, I think, a very encouraging one.

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Pittsburgh Steelers,Super Bowl,New England Patriots,New York Jets,Miami Dolphins,Atlanta Falcons,Buffalo Bills,Cris Collinsworth,Phil Simms,Ben Roethlisberger