I Hate Field Goals

Thanksgiving Day went well enough, but Sunday was a bust for the Packers.

We wanted the Falcons to lose. They won by a field goal.

We wanted the Eagles to lose. They won by a field goal.

And, loosely at least, we wanted the Ravens to lose. They won by a field goal in overtime.

Ugh.

I watched that Pittsburgh-Baltimore game on Sunday Night, and I'm not sure I want to have to play either of these teams. But we have both of them on our remaining schedule.

On Saturday, the ACC was conspicuously embarrassed. Their top two teams were upset by also-rans from the SEC. It confirms the suspicion that the SEC is just simply a superior Conference.

I raise the point because I wonder if the same thing might be true of the AFC and NFC North Divisions. I wonder if their Division is just simply better than ours. Remember that our best team was beaten by their second place team -- and was nearly beaten by their third place team. And I fear that both of those teams may beat us, too.

Again, I believe that we would have had a better chance against the Ravens if they had lost on Sunday Night. Now, however, they're right in the thick of the AFC wild card race, and they'll come into Lambeau ready to rumble. I have visions of Ray Lewis breaking Aaron Rodgers in two.

If he does, we can be sure that Coach will fix it during halftime.

See You in December

Well, with a long break before the Ravens visit to Lambeau, the Packers don't play again until Sunday, December 6th. And that suddenly makes the remainder of the season seem rather short.

So with just 5 weeks left in the regular season, what are the chances that the Packers will still be playing 6 weeks from now?

Happily -- perhaps surprsingly -- we begin from a position of strength: namely, if the season were to end today, we'd be in the playoffs as one of the NFC wild card teams. In theory, therefore, all we have to do is keep winning, and we're in. We control our own destiny. We don't yet need anyone else to win or lose.

And what are the prospects for the Packers to just keep winning?

Well, first, we host the (5-5) Baltimore Ravens. Personally, while I am unaccustomed to rooting for the Pittsburgh Steelers, they'll be my team of choice on Sunday Night when they visit Baltimore. I think that if the Ravens come into Lambeau at 5-6, they'll have so little realistic hope of making a playoff run that we'll enjoy a large "something to play for" advantage. That, plus home field, plus additional rest, should be enough to carry the day.

Then we hit the road to play the (4-6) Bears followed by the defending champion (6-4) Steelers. I am seriously concerned about two consecutive losses on this road trip. I know that the Bears have turned into a train wreck in 2009, but our recent record against them has been uneven, and Lovie Smith has made beating the Packers a personal priority. Meanwhile, the Steelers are not the team they were in 2008, and I think that if we play our best game we would win. Still, I'm not convinced that we'll beat these guys -- not in Heinz Field, without Al Harris, with so much at stake for Pittsburgh. We'll give a closer analysis to both of these games when they roll around. From this distance, though, I'm projecting an 8-6 record for the Pack when we host the Seattle Seahawks.

I believe we'll beat Seattle, carrying a 9-6 record into our final game.

We finish the season at the (7-3) Cardinals. My expectation is that, by that time, the Cardinals will have won their Division, but the Saints and Vikings will have locked up the top two seeds in the NFC. Accordingly, I see the Cardinals resting a lot of their guys in anticipation of a playoff game the following week. I'm not sure we could beat them at full strength on the road, but I do believe we will beat an Arizona team with nothing to play for in Week 17.

Accordingly, I am presently predicting a 10-6 finish for the 2009 Packers. If we make that threshhold, then I see us winning one of the wild card spots.

We'll keep updating these projections as events unfold.

Happy Thanksgiving -- The Sequel

It was already a happy Thanksgiving Day of football when the Packers easily dispatched the Lions and ran their record to 7-4. But then, in the evening, the football day got even better when the Broncos, who had been spiraling out of control, dominated the visiting Giants.

New York was one of the teams right on our heels for the 6th playoff spot, and now we've got a one-game separation between us and them.

Now if only the Eagles and Falcons would cooperate by losing on Sunday, we could all breathe a bit more easily.

Happy Thanksgiving

It was a disconcerting start -- fumbled kickoff, dumb penalty, early deficit, missed field goal -- but the visiting Packers overcame their early troubles to jump out in front and never look back. It wasn't a virtuoso performance, but it was good enough to get the W against a bad team.

Matthew Stafford had become a local hero with this gutty and effective comeback win against the Browns. And he showed the spirit of a comeback kid in the 4th quarter of the Packer game, as well. His several interceptions, however, were likely too much to overcome.

Going into halftime, with the Packers leading just 13-7, Joe Buck congratulated the Detroit defense for stopping Green Bay when it counted. That is to say, even though the Packer offense was effectively driving down the field, the Lion defense twice stopped them in the red zone.

I take issue with that interpretation of events, however. I don't think Green Bay's failure to score in the red zone -- indeed, to score after two first-and-goal opportunities -- is a credit to Detroit's defense. Rather, it reveals a weakness in the Packers' offense: we can't score up close.

I've heard many commentators refer to Green Bay's "explosive offense" or "big play offense." By that they mean that we can score from 30, 40, 50 yards out. My concern is that that may be the only way we can score touchdowns. Once we're less than 20 yards away, however, we show that we don't really have the offensive scheme to finish the job.

What does that pattern mean? I'm not sure, but my hunch is that goes something like this: Our long-distance scoring is a credit to our speedy wideouts, while our up-close impotence reflects the ineffectiveness of our offensive line.

Whatever. We won the game, and I'm sure that Coach McCarthy will identify those problems and get 'em fixed.

Beating the Lions is not necessarily a great achievement. All but two teams in the past two years have beaten them, after all. But it's better than losing to them (cf. Tampa Bay). And now, after dropping to .500 following the Buccaneer debacle, Green Bay has reeled off 3 straight wins and they're right in the thick of the NFC wild card race.

Well, the Packers get to go home now, get some days off, and then host the struggling Ravens, who will be coming off a short week. 'More about that match-up in a few days. In the meantime, we'll cheer for the Steelers on Monday Night so that Baltimore has virtually nothing left to play for when they arrive at Lambeau.

Week Twelve -- A Look Ahead

It's one of the best weekends in the NFL -- Thanksgiving weekend!

Three games are on tap on the holiday itself this year, and ours is the first of them. The Packers are back where they belong: in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day.

The Lions' heroic effort to win as time expired last week against the visiting Browns may have been an emotional turning point for the perennial losers. We may be catching them at a bad time.

Green Bay, meanwhile, is coming off a pair of solid performances. The problem, however, is how costly last Sunday's win was. Both Al Harris and Aaron Kampman are reportedly lost for the season. I don't think that will be enough to make us losers on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit. It will likely cost us against some other teams down the road (Pittsburgh and Arizona come to mind).

Meanwhile, the other two Thanksgiving Day match-ups are also of interest to us. Later in the afternoon, the Raiders play the Cowboys. If the game were in Oakland, I might have some hope, for we have seen other good teams go their to die this season. In Dallas, however, I suspect that talent will prevail. Still, our rooting interest is with the Raiders.

Finally, the evening tilt on Thanksgiving features the Giants in Denver. It has been a rare occasion, indeed, when I have found myself cheering for the Broncos, but they'll be my team on Thursday Night. Such is the deal-with-the-devil one makes when playing for a wild card spot.

The Broncos are in the same position that the Giants were two weeks ago: namely, a team that started so strong, only to have the wheels fall off suddenly and inexplicably. New York seems to have gotten back on track. Now the Broncos need to -- badly need to -- but it's going to be a tough assignment on a short week. At least they're playing at home.

Meanwhile, on Sunday afternoon, we'll be cheering for the Redskins as they travel to Philadelphia. Odds are against us in that one.

Likewise, we'll be rooting for the Bucs in Atlanta, but I'm not holding my breath for a victory there, either.

Apart from our own game, therefore, I don't really expect much to go right for us this weekend in terms of the wild card race. On the other hand, if we just keep winning, we're in.

Other games of general interest to football fans...

I wonder if the Bears will be able to upend the Vikings. Anything can happen within the Division. Plus, the Bears are playing for their playoff lives -- and the coaches for their jobs -- while the Vikings may take the foot off the pedal a bit now that they have such a commanding lead in the Division.

It will also be interesting to see what happens when the Cardinals visit the Titans. Arizona is undefeated on the road this season, but Tennessee has suddenly become a force again. Vince Young is undefeated as a starter this season, and people are talking about the mature quarterback and multiple threat that he has become. Should be a fascinating game.

Still more fascinating is the Colts visit to Houston. The Texans are clinging to the slightest of playoff hopes -- they need this win. The Colts, however, are undefeated, and just keep finding a way to win, one game at a time.

Sunday Nights' game is another great match-up: Steelers at Ravens. The defending champion Steelers have been disappointing this season, and now they're looking up at the Bengals in their Division. The Ravens, meanwhile, jumped out to a great start, only to find themselves at .500, in third place, and struggling to stay in the postseason picture.

Meanwhile, however, the very best game of the week is on Monday Night.

After some recent clunkers, the Monday Night crew has hit the jackpot this week: Patriots at Saints. What a beauty! The Saints are undefeated and look amazing. But if anyone on their remaining schedule can keep them from going 16-0, it's the only team that has gone 16-0 in the regular season. This will be a great test to see just how good these Saints are. And with the Vikings right on their heels in the Conference standings, they can't afford to let this one get away.

Bottom line? Packers win, but the current NFC playoff seedings remain basically unchanged. And one of the two remaining undefeated teams goes down this week.

Playing Downhill

When I lived in Virginia, there was a drive I would routinely make that took me over the Blue Ridge Mountains. Heading east across the mountains, I discovered that the descent on the east side was so steep that I could turn off my car and coast for quitea few miles before needing to use the engine again -- such was the downhill momentum.

Fortunately, the Packers had climbed to a high enough altitude in the first half that they could get away with coasting through the second half.

After dominating San Francisco through the first 30 minutes and achieving a 23-3 lead, Green Bay lacked rhytm on offense and lost some of their fire on defense, getting outscored 21-7 in the second thirty minutes. It was like two different games. Happily, we won the first game by slightly more than they won the second game by.

Nice halftime adjustments, Coach.

At times, Sunday's second half felt eerily like the fourth quarter in Tampa Bay. Especially after our special teams followed the offense's touchdown drive by giving up an enormous, momentum-shifting kick return.

The first half showed our capabilities, and they are considerable. The running game, with its strong 4.9 yards per attempt average for the game; the passing game, which can be both efficient and explosive; and the defense, which was aggressive and smothering -- if these qualities can be maintained for 60 minutes, I believe we could be competitive with anyone in the league.

But then, perhaps any team could make the same case: that they could play with anyone if only they always played their best.

Well, we didn't play our best for 6o minutes. But we played well enough to beat a sub-.500 team at home. Now, after a short week, we'll see if we can play well enough to beat a sub-.500 team on the road.

Week Eleven -- A Look Ahead

Once again, the NFL weekend began on Thursday Night, as the Panthers hosted the undermanned Dolphins. In our jockeying for wild card position, our hearts were with the Dolphins, though I honestly didn't have much hope for this one. Surprisingly, however, Miami pulled it off, knocking one of our many mid-level NFL competitors down a peg for us.

The rest of the action of interest to us, meanwhile, is slated for Sunday afternoon and evening.

First, there is our own game. The 49ers come to Lambeau this Sunday. San Francisco got off to a very hot start this season, including giving Minnesota more of a run for its money than the Packers managed to do in either of their opportunities. But then the wheels came off a bit, and now they're wallowing at 4-5, two games behind the Division-leading Cardinals. This is a very important game for them. They still have playoff hopes, but it's hard to imagine those hopes remaining alive if they dropped to 4-6.

If this game were being played on the West Coast, I'd be more worried. As it is, I'm pretty hopeful about the Packers building on the momentum from last Sunday and getting the job done again this week at home.

Elsewhere, we'll be Redskin fans -- an unhappy assignment this season -- as they visit the Cowboys. It's not essential that Dallas lose, since they are the NFC East Division leaders. Still, having beaten them head-to-head, and given the tightness of that 3-way race, I'd prefer to see Dallas in the wild card race and either the Giants or Eagles (whom we do not play) win the Division. So, go Hawgs!

The Seahawks will travel to Minnesota, where they will lose. Whatever.

The Saints will try to stay perfect in Tampa Bay, which I expect they'll manage to do.

The Falcons play the Giants in New York this Sunday. It is in the Packers' best wild card interests for both of these teams to lose. That can't happen this week, of course. But the good news is that at least one of the teams that we need to have lose is certain to!

Meanwhile, it's not essential to us that the Arizona Cardinals lose, and that's a good thing, because they're playing St. Louis this weekend. The fact is that we don't need any of the other NFC Division leaders to lose -- so long as they stay the Division leaders, that is. So it's okay with us if the Cardinals win, as long as the 49ers lose and remain the NFC West team that is against us in the wild card race. Happily, the 49ers' fate is in our hands this weekend.

Also, looking a little further down the road, not only do we want the 49ers to lose, but it would be nice if Arizona kept winning and San Fran kept losing so that the Cardinals could lock up their Division and have little or nothing to play for when we meet them in Arizona at the end of the regular season.

A couple of good match-ups are on tap in the AFC...

The Chargers are playing in Denver with the AFC West lead at stake. These are two teams going in opposite directions. The Broncos are lucky to be playing at home -- perhaps they can fix whatever has been wrong these past three weeks. Doesn't matter to me: I don't have a dog in this fight.

Another interesting AFC game is the Jets-Patriots match-up. The Jets won their first game, but they've been falling apart recently. The Patriots, meanwhile, are looking much stronger, and they have to be mad as hornets after blowing the big lead in Indianapolis last Sunday Night.

This Sunday Night, meanwhile, is another good one as the Eagles travel to Chicago. Both teams need this game. The Bears need it more, but the Eagles are better. If Philly comes into Chicago and wins, it may be the final nail in the Bears' very disappointing coffin. Given the relative records, I'll bite the lemon and cheer for Chicago in this one.

Finally, did you see that the Browns are playing the Lions this weekend? Wow -- what a contest! It seems to me that the FCC ought to step in and take some sort of preemptive action, for this one is just too ugly to broadcast.

A Certain Kind of Ugly

Peter King (SI.com) offers his picks of all the weekend's games online every week, and he gives his readers a chance to weigh in with their picks.

http://www.fannation.com/peter_king_challenge/peter_king?eref=sihp

You will note that he is picking the Lions to beat the visiting Browns this Sunday. Fine. But as of this moment, I see that 89% of the voting public is also picking the Lions. That strikes me as truly remarkable.

The Detroit Lions set a new NFL record for futility just last season, going 0-16 in 2008. So far in 2009, they are a pathetic 1-8.

So what does it say about the Browns when 89% of fans believe that the Detroit Lions are going to beat you? Wow. That's a certain kind of ugly.

Around the League

Between our enjoyment of the Packer-Cowboy game and our anticipation of the Packer-49er game, we take a moment for a quick look around the rest of the league....

We see that the Dolphins managed to overcome the football colossus that is Tampa Bay. So we know it can be done.

Meanwhile, that loss to the Bengals earlier in the season keeps looking better and better, doesn't it? Cincinnati has now swept both the Ravens and the Steelers in 2009. And I assume they'll complete their sweep of the Browns, thus completing their undefeated run through the AFC North for the season.

Has the Vince Young era officially begun (or re-begun?) in Tennessee? The previously woeful Titans are 3-0 under Young in 2009.

Elsewhere, the bloom is off the rose for Josh McDaniels' Broncos. They were competing for the Most Surprising Team of the Year Award as they rocketed out to a 6-0 start and a big lead in their Division. Now, however, they have lost 3 straight, including most recently a loss to the punchline Redskins. Kyle Orton is hurt. (Who would have thought, back in Chicago, that that particular headline would change a team's fate from winners to losers?) And now they have to play the surging Chargers, with the Division lead on the line.

The 2009 Browns are redefining "dismal." Did you see that Monday Night performance, at home, against the 4-4 Ravens? Boy, was that bleak! The GM has already been released. One wonders how much longer Mangini will last. Perhaps Cleveland should let this particular version of its franchise move away in the middle of the night, too, and try again with a new expansion club a few years later. This is just painful.

Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills are the first ones into the pool this year -- the coaching pool, that is. They have fired Dick Jauron, and they're turning to a respected coordinator on their own staff to be the interim coach. (That worked well last year for the 49ers, remember.) And, in the meantime, they get a head start on flirting with Mike Shanahan, Bill Cowher, et al.

Much went right for the Packers over the weekend, in addition to their own key victory over the Cowboys. The Bears, Falcons, and Eagles all lost, which are very important developments in our wild card hunt. You'll see in the Conference standings on the right that Green Bay has moved up one slot in the current seeding. We would not have a playoff berth if the season ended today, but we're just barely outside that coveted circle.

The Vikings beat the Lions. Ho-hum, whatever. Of course they did.

Finally, the biggest football news of the weekend was the Colts' comeback win against the Patriots. What a game! If I were a New England fan (which I am decidedly not, apart from that Super Bowl long ago when they beat the heavily favored St. Louis Rams), I would be deeply, deeply bitter about this one. To lead by 17 points in the 4th quarter and lose is galling no matter the game. And then for it to happen in this particular game -- this rivalry, which postseason seeding so much at stake, and all because of such a (seemingly stupid) coaching decision. Wow -- what a game!

What Do We Know?

Coming out of the preseason, the question was, "Just how good are these Packers?"

Coming off the loss to Tampa Bay at the halfway point in the season, on the other hand, the question had become, "Just how bad are these Packers?"

We were 4-4 going into our match-up with the Cowboys. But see the quality of those wins and losses...

We had beaten the Bears, Rams, Lions, and Browns. As of our kickoff on Sunday, those teams were an astonishing 7-28 combined. That sort of schedule is an embarrassment. Indeed, when the 2009 Bears are evidently the best team you've beaten, you've really got to wonder about yourself!

Meanwhile, we had lost to the Bengals, the Bucs, and the Vikings (twice). As of kickoff, those teams were a modest 16-11 combined.

So what to make of the Packers? They led the league in sacks allowed. They led the league in penalties. Those suggested a lousy team. On the other hand, both the offense and defense were ranked high statistically, suggesting a pretty good team. Put 'em together and what have you got?

4-4.

But now we are 5-4, and our fifth win came against a much more respectable opponent than our previous four did. The Cowboys, after all, were 6-2 and atop the NFC East -- no mean Division. And they had been playing well, so it's not as though we caught them in the midst of a bad period. They had shown some considerable explosiveness on offense and special teams along the way, yet the Packers managed to stifle both, pitching a shutout for all but the final minute of the game.

So, what to make of our Packers now? Were they underachieving in their four losses? Or did they overachieve on Sunday against the Cowboys?

I believe we showed a little more of what we are capable of, which is encouraging. I am also encouraged by the fact that we dominated Dallas without really playing our best game. That is to say, we still gave up too many sacks (4) and had too many penalties (12). If we could solve those nagging problems, just think how much more dominant we could have been!

Accordingly, I am willing to come down on the side of the "underachieving" alternative. Clearly that was the case last week in Tampa Bay. And our other three losses came against two teams (the Vikings and Bengals) who, after all, have beaten almost everyone that they've played this season! Those losses are no disgrace, therefore.

And so I take the Cowboys victory as a glimpse of our true potential -- and therefore as a promise of things to come!

Masterpiece!

I heard a lot of apprehension from Packer fans going into today's match-up with the Cowboys. The anxiety was understandable, of course, given Green Bay's inconsistency in general, added to their amazing breakdown against Tampa Bay last week. Still, as you can see in my preview post, I had some hope for Green Bay this week.

While I thought the Packers would win, however, I had no idea at all that they would -- could! -- dominate Dallas the way that they did. It wasn't a romp, of course, like the Lion game or Browns game, but in a sense it was an even better win. Running it up against an inferior team is a dubious achievement. But keeping a lid on an explosive offense all game long, gutting it out in a closely-fought contest, avoiding the costly mistake, forcing the big error, and effectively sealing the deal in the end -- that was a thing of beauty.

Our offensive line hardly indulged Rodgers with oodles of time, but they did keep him cleaner than in several weeks this season -- and, frankly, cleaner than I expected. More to the point, our defense made more sacks than our offense gave up. We forced more turnovers than we committed. We converted more 3rd downs. We gained more yards. And we held the ball for 11 minutes longer.

There are still things to be fixed, of course. It wasn't a perfect game. But we welcomed in a Division-leading team that was playing its best football, and we outplayed them. In every phase of the game.

If we had lost this week, I believe it would have been time to pull up the sheets over our collective face. But, no. Signs of life!

And so our playoff hopes remain alive.

Week Ten -- A Look Ahead

Week Ten began on Thursday Night, and the game happened to be of interest to us, and it happened to go our way -- the 49ers beat the Bears.

Now we turn our attention to the regular slate of games on Sunday and Monday.

Come early Sunday afternoon, the Vikings will host the Lions. Seeing as how I have emotionally conceded the Division to Minnesota, I won't grieve too much the fact that the Vikings are almost certain to win this game. Oh well.

Late on Sunday afternoon, meanwhile, is when the Packers will kick off. The Cowboys are coming to town, and they are playing better football than the Packers have been of late. If Week Ten is simply a continuation of Weeks 8 and 9, Green Bay will lose. On the other hand, Week 10 doesn't have to be a simple extrapolation of what has come before.

My chief concern -- predictably -- is that we won't be able to protect Aaron Rodgers. But if we were able to get our act together in that one, fundamental part of the game, I believe it would make a HUGE difference. Our passing game would become the explosive and productive force that it could be, which would open up our running game. And if our running and passing game were functioning properly, we'd rack up points and we'd keep the opponent's offense off the field. And if the offense were putting up points the way they're capable of, then our defense could play downhill, which I think is what they do best. So, it's that simple: protect Rodgers and Green Bay wins.

Elsewhere...

I will be mildly rooting for the visiting, underdog Seahawks to beat the Cardinals. It's not essential for the Packers' purposes, but it would be useful.

The Eagles travel to San Diego. The two teams are in identical positions in their Divisions, though on balance Philly is playing better football. As we jockey for an NFC wild card berth, we'll be rooting for the Chargers. Happily, the Eagles have to travel cross-country to play this one.

Falcons head to Carolina, and we will root, root, root for the home team in this one, as well. Atlanta is currently ahead of us in the wild card race, and so we'd like to see them knocked down a peg.

The Saints play at St. Louis, so you can expect them to remain undefeated for yet another week.

Finally, how ugly is the inequity of prime time scheduling? The Sunday Night Football gang gets to broadcast the Patriots-Colts game. The next night, meanwhile, the Monday Night crew has to cover the Ravens-Browns game. Wow!

The Sunday Night folks get to cover the marquee game of the week -- the perennial grudge match of AFC powers, featuring two of the most popular, most talented, most recognizeable QBs in the game.

Monday Night Football, on the other hand, is saddled with broadcasting the accident by the side of the road. The Browns are an absolute mess. The Cleveland fans are in revolt. And the visiting Ravens, of course, represent the real Browns that were stolen from Cleveland back in the early 90s. It's a recipe for ugly on MNF.

Bottom line? Vikings win. Saints stay undefeated. Colts get knocked off their perfect record perch. And the Packers...? WIN! -- thus reviving the fading hopes of Packer fans everywhere and reestablishing our place in the playoff race.

Bad News in the News

I came across two disturbing bits of Packer news recently. Perhaps you did, too.

First, there is the news report about the long-time Packer employee who was evidently fired for a seemingly harmless commment made to Mike McCarthy. Here's the story.

http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/127990-packers-employee-fired-over-mccarthy-remark?eref=sihp

I can't imagine Lombardi firing anyone for this. I'm afraid it's a symptom of some insecurity at the top.

Meanwhile, some guy did an exhaustive study of sacks in the NFL -- he watched tape of every sack in every NFL game so far this season! -- and he identified which players have given up the most sacks through the halfway point in the season. Here's the result of his research:

http://nfl.fanhouse.com/2009/11/13/between-the-lines-whos-allowing-the-most-sacks/

Note that there are three Green Bay offensive linemen in the Top 10 in the league! (Or should we call it the Bottom 10?) Nice drafting, Ted. Way to coach 'em up, Mike.

(Wait, can I get fired for saying that?)

Our 3-Way Race

At the beginning of this 2009 NFL season, conventional wisdom was that the NFC North would be a 3-way race. No one took seriously the Lions (of 0-16 fame), but all the signs pointed to a competitive race between the Bears, Packers, and Vikings. Different 'experts' projected different winners for the end of the season. It was not clear going in which team would be the best team.

Now, halfway through the season, it's quite clear which of the three is the best team, and the Vikings are running away with the Division. Winning the NFC North is hardly in question any more. Now they have their sights set on best record in the Conference and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Packers and Bears thrash around at or below .500, monuments to inconsistency and unpredictability.

The Chicago game on Thursday Night was a certain sort of symbol. The Bears had the ball in the Red Zone with 08 seconds left and down by 4 points. I wonder... If all three teams in the anticipated 3-way race had been in that position, what would have happened to each?

I say that, if the Vikings had the ball in that situation, Favre would fake a handoff to the much-feared Adrian Peterson, drop back to pass, and throw a touchdown pass to Percy Harvin to win the game.

I say that Aaron Rodgers would fake a handoff to the much-less-feared Ryan Grant, drop back to pass, and get sacked.

And Jay Cutler? He threw an interception in the end zone -- just according to script.

One Down

I suppose there are 5 games of interest to Packer fans this NFL weekend -- games with implications for us and our playoff hopes.

One of them was the Thursday Night tilt between the Bears and 49ers. In a sense, of course, we want both teams to lose, but at 4-4 the Bears were more of an immediate issue for us than the 3-5 49ers. And so we were looking for a San Francisco win on Thursday night.

And we got it.

Both teams needed this game. The Bears have been humiliated in 2 of their last 3 outings. The 49ers, meanwhile, have quickly forefeited their early advantage in the NFC West, with last week's loss to the one-win Titans being a particularly bitter blow.

In the end, it was a close game, which is something of a bright spot for the Bears compared with their other two most recent losses. On the other hand, the Cutler experiment blew up in their faces again: this time it was a 5 interception performance. FIVE!

Bears fans were so giddy when they traded Orton for Cutler. It looked like a steal of a deal. They talked about having their first franchise quarterback since the days of leather helmets. "Da Bears" were back!

Well, Orton is sitting atop the AFC West with the 6-2 Broncos. (And Cedric Benson, another former Bear that Chicago happily jettisoned, is sitting atop the AFC North with the 6-2 Bengals.) Meanwhile, the Cutler-led Bears are under .500, they're three-and-a-half games back in the Division, and they've lost 3 of their last 4 games.

Things are even uglier in Chicago than they are in Green Bay, which is almost enough to bring a smile to the otherwise sad faces in Packerland this week.

Debacle -- Part 2

Okay, so what went wrong?

The strong emotions that follow immediately in the wake of a loss have subsided somewhat, and so now the time has come for a dispassionate analysis of the game. So what went wrong? How did we lose?

Penalties were down from previous weeks (although while Green Bay had only 5, Tampa Bay had only 2). The running game was solid. The defense was not overwhelmingly successful, but I believe they actually did a reasonably good job given the field position they were sometimes called upon to protect. We outgained the Bucs on the ground, we outgained them in the air, and we out-possessed them by more than 10 minutes.

So what went wrong?

First, special teams play was notorious again. The Bucs' return yardage for the game was 247, while the Packers' was a paltry 114.

Second, the offensive line gave up another 6 sacks. At the mid-point of the season, we are on pace to beat our franchise record for most sacks allowed. And, worse yet, we are only 1 off the pace for breaking the NFL all-time record! The 2009 Packers could lay claim to the title of worst offensive line in NFL history.

Finally, Aaron Rodgers threw 3 interceptions. The first two problems we mentioned were preexisting conditions. This interception issue, however, was a new contribution specially for this week's loss.

In the end, of course, it was a game lost in the 4th quarter. We earned our way to an 11-point lead and yet we came out with a 10-point deficit. A 21-point 4th-quarter turnaround against an 0-7 team. That is the truly disheartening part.

It's not like all the sacks came in the 4th quarter, or all the interceptions. It was a team effort. The offense became timid and ineffectual. The special teams gave up a huge 83-yard kickoff return that sent momentum right back to the other team following our TD. And the defense rolled over against a rookie QB making his first NFL start.

It's a bit of a cliche, but the Buccaneers simply seemed to want it more. That's a disgrace, of course, given the fact that Tampa Bay really had almost nothing to play for, while the Packers were a team in the midst of a legitimate playoff hunt.

And now the Cowboys come to town. They're hot, they're 6-2, and they're on top of the NFC East. It's a home game, and it might not be unrealistic to call it a must-win situation for Green Bay. If they don't come out of this one with a "W," I fear things will begin to fall apart as the players wave the white flag on 2009.

We'll take a closer look at the upcoming Cowboys game, as well as other action around the league, over the weekend.

Weighing In

If Green Bay had won Sunday at Tampa Bay, I don't think anyone would have been singing our praises or making plane reservations to go to the Super Bowl. But in the wake of our mind-boggling loss, the voices of doom are getting louder.

SI.com has started to write the Packers' 2009 epitaph:
http://nfl.fanhouse.com/2009/11/08/four-contenders-in-serious-trouble/?ncid=txtlnkusspor00000002

Meanwhile, Mark Belling of WISN 1130 AM also weighed in today on the Packers' grim future. His reasoned conclusion is that Ted Thompson is the one who has to go.

This is not an emotional reaction by Belling (unlike those of us who have wanted to see Thompson whacked ever since he jettisoned Favre). Rather, Belling's point is that Thompson has always argued that the best way to build a team is through the draft but that Thompson's drafts have been disastrous. He also observed that Thompson inherited an outstanding offensive line, and now that part of our squad has become a league-wide embarrassment. And, finally, Belling noted that special teams are usually composed of late-round draft choices and reflect a team's depth of talent. And yet we have all seen how unspecial our special teams are.

When the vultures are circling overhead, you know what's going on down below.

Debacle -- Part 1

In Week 8, the Packers were the center of national attention because of the much-hyped return of Brett Favre to Lambeau Field. In Week 9, however, we expected to fly under the radar of national attention because of our ignominious opponent. But, no such luck. We stumbled our way into the spotlight again this week, this time by the unhappy distinction of losing to the one remaining winless team in the league.

Without question, this is the worst game of the season for Green Bay. We've lost before, but always to respectable foes. This, however, is a genuine embarrassment.

It turns out that you don't have to be Percy Harvin to look like a Pro Bowl return man against us. It turns out that you don't have to be Jared Allen to keep Aaron Rodgers on his back. And it turns out that you don't have to be Brett Favre or Carson Palmer to lead your team to victory against the 2009 Packers.

So very far from the preseason predictions that placed the Packers among the NFL elite, the '09 squad actually looks more like the '08 team that finished under .500. If we can't beat the 0-7 Bucs with a 4th-quarter lead, then how are we going to fare against the Cardinals, Steelers, and Ravens?

Last week's loss effectively knocked us out of the Division race. This week's loss does serious damage to even our wild card hopes. A real shame.

In the days ahead, we'll give some detailed consideration both to our loss and to the second half of our season. For now, though, suffice it to say that, as football goes, today was a disaster.

Midlife Crisis

It's the classic peril of middle-age. It's part of the emotional profile of a certain set of years in a person's life. And so, too, with an NFL team (and its fans).

When you are young, the possibilities are endless. You are invincible, you can be anything you want to be, and you can do anything you want to do. You look with disdain at adults who don't seem to have amounted to much, for you're sure you can be and do so much more.

After several decades of reality, however, you discover how many limiting factors there are in life. And by the time you hit middle-age, you are overwhelmed by the sobering recognition that, no, you can no longer do anything you might have wanted to do, and you will no longer be everything you might want to be.

Well, it's Week 9 in the NFL, and the season is now officially middle-aged. Specifically, the 2009 Packers are now middle-aged. And we are presented with the sober recognition that we aren't going to be and do all that we hoped and planned when we were young -- that is, when it was still the promising preseason.

Being one of the best teams in the NFL, having one of the best records in the NFC, winning the Division -- these are all out of reach now. They're not going to happen. And so, as we renegotiate our plans for the future, we set our sites somewhat lower. Time to aim for a wild card berth.

You will notice a new feature on the right. The "NFC Standings" will track where we stand within our Conference, which will ultimately determine playoff seedings.

As of today, we would not make the NFC playoffs. The Saints, Vikings, Eagles, and Cardinals are the Division leaders to-date, and the Cowboys and Giants would be the wild card teams. The Falcons, too, are ahead of us in that race. Meanwhile, the Bears are right on our heels.

So, we see who our competition is. And we'll cheer accordingly.

Week Nine -- A Look Ahead

Last week was our moment in the sun -- playing Favre and the Vikings -- and we got burnt. This week, by contrast, we'll be far removed from the NFL spotlight. Week 9 features a number of good match-ups, and ours is not one of them.

The Packers travel to Tampa to play the Buccaneers. The winless Buccaneers, I should say, for they are the lone remaining monument to futility in the 2009 NFL. There are quite a few bottom-feeders in this year's league (Browns, Raiders, Lions, Chiefs, to name a few), but record-wise the Bucs are the worst of them all.

I don't actually think they are the worst team, mind you. But at 0-7, they are a team we should beat. Indeed, they very much fit the profile of the kind of team that Green Bay has feasted on this year, so it should be an enjoyable Sunday.

Now, the Bucs are coming off their bye, and you have to believe that they will be playing with the resolve of a team determined to shake their undesirable claim to fame. Nevertheless, they shouldn't be a match for us -- and if they DO beat us, then there are some real coaching issues in Green Bay.

A much more compelling match-up is the Cardinals' trip to Chicago. These are a couple of Jekyll-and-Hyde teams, and it's just a matter of which team shows up on each side of the ball. There's no telling from week to week whether either will be dominant or embarrassing. Obviously, our loyalties are with the Cardinals.

Elsewhere in our Division, the Lions travel to Seattle in a game that matters to no one outside of Michigan or Washington.

Around the league, meanwhile, there are several very interesting match-ups this weekend...

The Giants and Chargers both really need a win. The Giants perhaps somewhat moreso, and they are the home team this weekend.

The Ravens-Bengals tilt is an important AFC North showdown, Cincy having already beaten Baltimore on the road earlier this season.

The Sunday Night game is a classic rivalry -- Cowboys at Eagles -- and it has the added benefit of being an important game in the standings right now. Both teams have looked pretty hot in recent weeks. When push comes to shove, though, I like Philly in this one. (Also, Philadelphia sports fans need some good cheer right now.)

And, finally, the Steelers travel to Denver to play the Broncos, who had been the undefeated, surprise team of the year up until last week. It's an important AFC battle, and it's on Monday Night Football.


Bottom line? A good week for Green Bay as the Packers win, the Bears lose, and the Vikings don't play. The Colts and Saints stay undefeated, and the Bucs stay winless.

Reasons to Lose

Well, a few days have passed now. The strong emotions of Sunday have subsided. And now we can offer a more dispassionate evaluation of Green Bay's loss to the Vikings -- the hows and whys of what happened.

Some losses can be attributed to luck -- the way the ball bounced on some fluke play at the end. I believe that we can eliminate that explanation.

Some losses can be attributed to the referees -- some blown call that had disproportionate impact on the outcome of the game. That, too, can be dismissed as the reason for our defeat in this case.

That brings us then to the more common factors in winning and losing: (1) talent, (2) coaching, and (3) execution. To which of these can our pair of losses to the Vikings be attributed?

The issue of talent, of course, invites the question of which team has the better players. This isn't basketball, however, where a couple of superstars is enough to swamp every opponent. Neither is it baseball, where you can field the best players at nearly every position (read "Yankees"). A football team is a big squad, and it's rare that one team is across-the-board better than the other.

In terms of match-ups, it seems clear that Minnesota's special teams unit is both more explosive and more consistent than Green Bay's.

On offense, it's obvious that the Vikings have a top-flight running game, and we don't. I'm comfortable with how our passing game stacks up against Minnesota's, on the other hand. Given the time to pass, that is.

Which brings us to defense. Our defensive backfield is fine, and I'd rather have ours than theirs. But clearly the most glaring difference between the two teams in both of our games has been the performance of the two defensive lines. The Minnesota defense has overwhelmed our blockers, embarrassed our pass protection schemes, and abused Aaron Rodgers. Our defensive line, on the other hand, has looked like it was counting to 10 Mississippi before rushing Brett.

This, then, is where coaching comes in. Even if one team is more talented than another in certain match-ups, excellent coaching can compensate for that. Excellent coaching puts players in a position to win. Russ Tucker of SI.com had a very critical piece this week about Green Bay in this regard. He felt that poor coaching cost us the game.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/ross_tucker/11/04/coaches/index.html

Finally, on the subject of execution, the box score suggests a more evenly matched game than the final score did. In total yards, the two teams were neck-and-neck. The Packers earned more first downs, had a slightly better record on 3rd down, and won the time-of-possession battle. We even had a better per-rush-attempt average!

So what went wrong?

Twice as many penalties for the Packers, and a 6-0 sack advantage for Minnesota.

Not to worry, though. We're going to identify what's wrong, and we're going to fix it.

The Other Games

Before we return to cooled-down evaluation of the Packers' loss, let us consider some of the rest of the action around the NFL...

What can you say about the Browns/Bears game? Both teams were coming off embarrassing losses in Week 7, and so both needed a bounce-back performance this week. I think we knew who was capable of getting it. And, sure enough, the Bears easily dispatched the horrible, horrible Browns. Eric Mangini earned the nickname "Mangenius" early in his Jets tenure, but the first weeks in Cleveland are not working out that way for him. Not at all.

While the Bears' easy defeat of the Browns was not surprising, it was terribly surprising to me how easily the Eagles defeated the visiting Giants. After exploding out to a 5-0 start, the Giants have now lost 3 in a row -- and lost badly, at that. Through the first quarter of their season, it looked like they were going to run away with their Division. Now they're looking up at both the Eagles and Cowboys, and they're just thankful to be in the same Division as the Redskins!

Meanwhile, 3 undefeated teams came into this weekend. The Colts survived a tough visit from the 49ers to go to 7-0. The Broncos went down, as predicted -- and went down hard -- in Baltimore. And the Saints stayed perfect in a wild one on Monday Night. (As I indicated in yesterday's post, the Falcons-Saints game was the first game of rooting-interest for us in our new "Plan B" mode, and it turned out right for us. We preferred an Atlanta loss.)

At the other end, two winless teams took the field on Sunday, and BOTH came out winners! The Titans and Vince Young effectively took care of the visiting Jaguars, and the Rams (somewhat surprisingly) went into Detroit and got one from the Lions.

So now the 0-7 Bucs, who were on their bye this week, are the only remaining winless team. And guess who gets to play them when they take the field next... No, not the Redskins, though that would be appropriate. But, no, the Packers get to travel to Tampa this coming Sunday. So happy days are here again!

Plan B

We'll return later this week to an analysis of the actual football that was played at Lambeau on Sunday and what to make of our team. For this moment, however, let us step back and consider what to make of our season.

The road to the playoffs got considerably harder with yesterday's loss. Plan A for every team, of course, is to win their Division. Plan B is to earn a wild card berth.

The Packers are now looking at Plan B.

Minnesota has already won 7 games, and they'll come back after their bye to play both the Lions and Seahawks at home. That tells me that the Vikings will have 9 wins with 6 games left to play. Now the rest of their schedule has a little more starch, but even if they only win 2 of those last 6 games, that's still an 11-5 record. In order to win the NFC North, then, the Packers would have to get at least 12 wins, or 8 of our next 10 games.

Look at that Green Bay schedule on the right. Do you see us winning 8 of those 10 remaining games? And that's with the Vikings going 2-4 down the stretch, which is far worse than I think they'll actually do.

The bottom line is that the Division is out of reach for Green Bay now, and so we've got to think wild card. And so now our cheering each week has gotten considerably more complex. Suddenly we're rooting for the Saints to beat the Falcons tonight, because we're thinking like a team in the wild card hunt. Now we have to pay attention to what's going on in that tight NFC East race. And now our remaining games against the Cowboys, 49ers, and Cardinals take on extra meaning.

Of course, the first principle of Plan B is exactly the same as in Plan A: win your games. But the second principle -- whom we need to have lose -- is a much more complicated business now.

Haunted

It was the day after Halloween, and a few boos were still lingering in the air in Green Bay.

They came out in abundance when Favre came out onto the field for pregame work. They came out again when the Vikings were introduced. They came out again during each play of the first two Viking offensive series.

As the game wore on, the boos kept coming, yet they were different. A stadium boo is an interesting phenomenon. It is so anonymous -- no one person detectable in the expression, and no one person specified as the object. And yet you can almost always tell, can't you, who is the intended.

And the intended changed, didn't it? After raining down boos on Brett Favre, the boos kept coming, but they were aimed at others. At Packers. Packer penalties, Packer play-calling, Packer sacks. Boooo!

Things improved after halftime. Dramatically. But in the end, the improvement was only a tease. For just when we had begun to reconcile ourselves to the miserable outcome portended by the first half, the Packers came back and made a game of it. Yet, still, when the final gun sounded, the outcome was just what we had feared.

Boo turns into boo hoo.

The boo, you know, is an expression of anger and frustration, of disapproval and disagreement. I'm feeling all of those things this evening. How about you? I feel like booing. How about you?

But whom shall we boo? At whom are you most angry?

Are you angry at Brett for being a Viking, or at Ted for letting him go?

Are you mad at McCarthy for still not getting the sacks and penalties fixed?

Are you mad at the special teams for giving up so many big returns, and for a kicker who can't come through when we need him?

Or are you mad at Rodgers for holding the ball too long? For getting sacked so often? For not being better? For not being Brett?

So whom shall we boo tonight? Or shall we simply boo hoo?

A Superiority Complex

It's an interesting moment in American sports.

The NFL is nearing its midway mark -- neither the great excitement of the beginning, nor the great tension of the end. If it's possible for the NFL to have its own "horse latitudes," this would be that time.

Meanwhile, the NBA season is kicking into gear, with all its Kobe, LeBron, Shaq, and company hype. And, at the same time, Major League Baseball has launched the Fall Classic, with all of its bunting and fanfare.

Now I'm a sports guy. I like to watch basketball and some baseball, and I have my teams that I follow. I root. I go to some games in person (which is more than I'm able to say for NFL games). And yet, at this significant overlap of the three great American sports, I am reminded again of what a superior sport football is.

First, even in these middle weeks of the NFL season, it is still so apparent how important every game is. There is no shrugging off a three-game losing streak in football, as there can be in the other major sports, for such a run would be devastating in the NFL.

Second, it seems apparent to me that football is superior to its counterparts on America's sports scene because it is both mentally and physically more demanding. This must surely be the key to football's eclipsing appeal. One might think that a game or sport would tend to be one or the other -- either a very physically demanding endeavor, or a mentally challenging one. But football exceeds its peers in both respects.

A double-header would be physically incomprehensible in football. And neither could an NFL team be expected to play on successive nights -- or 4 to 5 times a week -- the way baseball and basketball teams do. The physical exertion and punishment is simply too great.

At the same time, these contestants are not mere boxers or gladiators. The strategic complexity of the NFL game is staggering. In this regard, the European designation of soccer as "football" is quite laughable, for the two sports bear so little resemblance to one another. What is the difference in size and weight between the playbooks from the two sports? Or, for that matter, how many hours of film study does LeBron James do as compared to Peyton Manning? To the uninitiated, it may often look like three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust, but the real fan recognizes the magnificent complexity of 11 different guys with 11 different assignments on every play.

And speaking of 11 different guys, here is another testimony to the superiority of football. Look at the differences in body types and skill sets on a football team as opposed to a baseball, basketball, soccer, hockey, etc., team. The comparative richness of football in this respect is so obvious that it does not require explanation.

Finally, as Major League Baseball reaches its 2009 climax, I am reminded of my favorite difference between football and baseball: in football you can score on defense.

This is a constant source of frustration to me as I watch baseball games. The football fan in me is so frustrated when my team is 'in the field,' for the potential is so limited. The best you can hope for on defense is status quo -- just prevent the other guys from scoring.

In football, by contrast, the defense can win the game. Just ask the Steelers and Vikings!

Baseball likes to call itself America's pastime. And it has an indisputable charm, with its casual pace, its colorful radio voices, and its ubiquitous companionship through the afternoons and evenings of summertime. But football is really America's sport.

To wit: let's watch for the ratings figures to come in for the Vikings/Packers regular season football game and Game 4 of the World Series later that day. We shall see.