Is There a “W” in “Clunker”?

After putting together two masterpieces on the road, Packer fans were excited to welcome home their heroes this past Sunday and see a great game.  Welcome there was.  Great game?  Not so much. 

Don’t get me wrong: a win is a win.  Plus, it was a beautiful late October Sunday in Green Bay, Wisconsin, I was at Lambeau with my daughter, and the happy fans were enjoying themselves all around the stadium well after the game.  It was all good.

But the Packers themselves didn’t look so good.  They cobbled together enough points to win, but it wasn’t the sort of domination that was expected.  After beating the undefeated Texans so soundly on the road just a few weeks before, we all had high hopes for what the Packers would do at home to the lowly Jaguars. 

Jacksonville didn’t look so lowly, though.  Lacking their best offensive player, the Jaguar offense still managed to make our defensive backfield look pretty porous.  On the other side of the ball, meanwhile, the offense couldn’t generate a consistent running game, and the passing game showed only occasional glimpses of its potential.  On special teams?  Another alarming miss by Mason Crosby (at home in pleasant weather) makes one wonder if he can be relied on to win a game in the clutch.

All that having been said, the reality is that the 2012 Packers more nearly resemble the Super Bowl team of 2010 than the 15-1 (but early exit from the playoffs) team of 2011.  Both the 2010 and 2012 squads started 3-3.  Both were plagued by injuries to key players.  And both were hardened into winners as a result.  Last year’s team never needed to be hardened, and I think it cost them in the end.

Green Bay is riding a three-game win streak, and they get another home game before a much-needed bye.  Meanwhile, the Vikings are falling back to earth, and I still don’t buy the 6-1 Bears.  (More on that in a few days.)  And so the grand theft in Seattle and the grand collapse in Indy are growing small in our rear view mirrors, while the top of the NFC North is clearly visible just down the road. 

Sunday’s game was, by any measure, a bit of a clunker.  But evidently the Packers are good enough to stink it up and still come away with a win.  Go team!

Week 7 Preview

Week 7 began predictably.  After getting pasted at home by the Giants last Sunday, I fully expected the 49ers to come back and take out their frustrations on someone.  They Seahawks held their own, but an “L” is an “L.”  Still, the NFC West remains tight and competitive. 

Likewise, the AFC East is also tight and competitive, with all four teams knotted up at 3-3.  Two of them are facing off this week when the Jets visit the Patriots.  There’s already no love lost there, and the larger context adds to tension.  Both teams had higher hopes than a .500 start.  Should be a great game!

The most touted AFC game, meanwhile, is the match-up between the only two squads in the Conference with winning records.  The 5-1 Ravens visit the 5-1 Texans.  The latter, of course, are still smarting from how the Packers put them to shame on Sunday Night Football.  The Ravens will be a tough team to rebound against, though Houston has the advantage of playing at home.

The least touted AFC game is probably the Browns at the Colts.  Cleveland finally broke into the win column last week, and they’ve got to be looking at the Colts as another eligible victim.  I spent a lot of years living in Cleveland and just recently learned that their coach’s mom lives near me, so I’ll be pulling hard for them. 

The Saints are the other team that came late to their first win.  It’s hard to imagine them catching the Falcons, who have rocketed out to a 6-0 start.  Second place in that division is wide open, however, and New Orleans can lay claim to that with a win at Tampa Bay.

Meanwhile, the entire NFC North is back at work this week.  The surprising Vikings are hosting the 4-2 Cardinals.  Arizona can’t afford to lose more ground against the 49ers and Seahawks, just as Minnesota can’t against the Bears.  Both teams boast some impressive victories on their 2012 resume.  Arizona has beaten Seattle, the Patriots, and the Eagles, while the Vikings have upset the 49ers and shellacked the Titans. If the game were in Arizona, I’d definitely pick the Cardinals.  As it is, though, I’m not so sure.  Naturally, I’m in the Cardinals corner, no matter.

The Division-leading Bears are hosting the 2-3 Lions on Monday Night Football.  I can’t root for either team, but I will be delighted by either one losing.  Folks are beginning to talk about the Bears like they’re for real.  They didn’t look it when they came to Green Bay, but we didn’t look like it during the second half in Indy, either.  Now you can only beat the teams you play, and they have mostly managed to do that.  But the teams they’ve beaten (Colts, Rams, Cowboys, and Jaguars) have a combined record of 8-13.  Of the group, the Rams have the best record at 3-3.  So I’m not sold on the Bears yet.

Finally, the Packers play those 3-3 Rams this Sunday in St. Louis.  I’m afraid they’re a no-nonsense team, having won all three home games so far this season.  And those three victories have come against the Redskins, the Seahawks, and the Cardinals.  Green Bay is definitely the more balanced team, but I am concerned by where their imbalance lies.  Namely, while their offense ranks near the bottom in many categories, their defense is really quite good.  Statistically, it’s better than ours.  But if the Packers can achieve the same sort of rhythm and pace that characterized their Sunday Night performance in Houston, I have little doubt that we’ll come home victorious.

Enough Said

I have discovered something about myself – specifically, about my psyche – during the years of writing this blog.  Namely, that it is personal therapy for me. 

This past week is the anecdotal evidence.  When we lose a game, I sit down and begin to write right away.  I need to.  It helps me process the frustration and disappointment that I’m feeling.  When we win, however, I don’t feel the same need. 

This past Sunday Night’s manhandling of the previously undefeated Houston Texans was so masterful and so complete that there is nothing left to say.  The Packers – and perhaps especially Aaron Rodgers with his clever “Shhhh” quote – said it all by how they played.  And, of course, there is no frustration or disappointment for me to process.

Everyone recognizes that the game was more important to the Packers than to the Texans.  Also, it was a non-Conference game for both teams, and so it doesn’t have the strategic tie-breaker function that some other games have.  Also, Green Bay is fighting its way through a very competitive division, while the Texans could win the AFC South this year with one hand tied behind their back.  For all those reasons, therefore, some folks have discounted the Packers’ dominant victory.

On the other hand, we know well the pride and the drive involved with being undefeated.  Plus, it was a home game in prime time.  The crowd was juiced, all the energy and momentum was on the Texans’ side, and they were enjoying a rare national spotlight.  But Green Bay went in there and took it to the favored Texans from start to finish. 

Our defense looked great, our offensive line held up much better than predicted, and the running game was also better than expected given Cedric Benson’s absence.  Best of all, the offensive pace and efficiency was back to its 2011 form.   I believe we could have beaten anybody that night – including any of the three teams that have bested us thus far this season. 

All of which is to say that being a good team and playing well are not exactly the same thing.  Just ask the 49ers after they got shellacked by the visiting Giants last week.  The mediocre and troubling start to the 2012 season does not make me doubt that Green Bay is a good team.  But we have not been playing well – not consistently, at least.  We played well against Chicago.  We played well against the Texans.  And now that we have rediscovered what that looks and feels like, can we keep it up over the long road from here until the middle of February? 

Week 6 Preview

Week 6 in the NFL is already a good one as far as I’m concerned, for anytime the Steelers lose is a good week for me.

Meanwhile, here are some other games of interest on tap for the pro football weekend.

The winless Browns – the lone winless team remaining in the NFL now that the Saints have gotten off the proverbial schneid – are hosting the 3-2 Bengals.  I’m sure there is a win somewhere in Cleveland’s future, but I fear this is not it.

Likewise, I’m sure there’s a loss somewhere in Atlanta’s and Houston’s futures, but will it come in Week 6?  The Falcons have the challenge of heading to the West Coast. The Raiders did beat the Steelers in Week 2, and they’re coming off their bye week.  Still, Atlanta is statistically much better on both sides of the ball, and so I wouldn’t bet against the Falcons in this spot.

The Jets hosting the Colts is an interesting match-up, especially because of the juxtaposition of quarterbacks involved.  Luck is an impressive competitor, while Sanchez so often seems like a head case.  New York badly, badly needs this win, though, particularly with a trip to New England in store for the following Sunday.  The Colts, meanwhile, are riding high after their emotional victory over the Packers.  I’m predicting a letdown week for Indy, as New York rises up and gets the job done.

Speaking of the Patriots, they travel to Seattle this Sunday to take on the Seahawks.  Both teams are 3-2, which is enough to give New England the lead in their division.  In the tough NFC West, however, Seattle can’t afford to miss a step.  They have the better defense, while the Patriots have the much better offense.  Personally, I’m a believer that great defenses beat great offenses.  That, along with the cross-country trip and noisy home field advantage, make me like the Seahawks in this one.  (Well, not like them, but favor them to win.)

Another great match-up of east meets west is the Giants’ trip to San Francisco (a phrase that would sound like a historical reference to a baseball fan).  New York has been uneven so far early in 2012, while the 49ers have been hitting on all cylinders.  And, again, my inclination is to side with the better defense, especially when it is also the home team. 

Within our own Division, the Bears get the week off, while the Lions, Vikings, and Packers all hit the road.

Our road trip is indisputably the hardest one.  More about that in a moment.  The surprising Vikings head to DC to take on RGIII and the 2-3 Redskins.  Minnesota has the superior defense, but Washington brings some unique challenges with their versatile quarterback.  Minnesota is coming off an exhilarating blowout of Tennessee, while Washington lost a close, tough one to the Falcons.  I like the Redskins in this situation.  (And of course I’m rooting for them, too.)

The disappointing Lions, meanwhile, travel to Philly to play the 3-2 Eagles.  If Detroit was showing any of its stuff from last year, I’d pick them against the uneven Eagles.  But the Lions are so very un-disciplined and have been playing so badly that I have to go with the home team here.  (And, again, my head and my heart are on the same side.)

Finally, the Packers are on Sunday Night Football against the undefeated Houston Texans.  If it were last year’s Packers against this year’s Texans, it would be the undisputed game of the week.  As it is, however, the contest is simply a must-win for a desperate Green Bay squad that can’t seem to find itself. 

At times, our defense has been stifling, but they haven’t generated the turnovers, and they couldn’t stop the Colts when they needed to last week.  At times, the offense has looked like the score-at-will, well-oiled machine that was the hallmark of the 2011 team.  Those times have been relatively few and far between, however, while more often they have looked flummoxed by defenses who manage both to pressure Rodgers and to cover his receivers.  On paper, therefore, I like the Texans. 

Still, I believe the Packers of last year are in there somewhere, and I’m convinced that they’ve got the internal leadership to rise to the occasion.  If I were a betting man, therefore, I’d put my money Green Bay to put the pieces together, upset the Texans at home, and get folks talking again about the Packers as one of the best teams in the NFL. 

Week 6 began well.  I expect it to end well, too. 

Total Team Effort

I don’t believe in panic.  I can’t think of any situation or area of life in which panic is the best response.  It may be a natural reflex, but it is not a productive one. 

That said… yikes!  What’s wrong with the Packers?! 

After roaring out to a 13-0 start last season and looking unbeatable – a team for the ages!, we thought -- that same group has gone 4-5 in the last nine games that they’ve played.  What happened?

Sunday’s disaster was the worst sort of total team effort.  Offense, defense, and special teams all contributed to that loss. 

On offense, the running game was anemic and the passing game was inconsistent.  There was the Rodgers interception, dropped passes, missed opportunities, and inadequate pass protection.  And none of these, incidentally, were unique to this Sunday. 

On defense, we saw the same mystery that marked much of the Saints game: namely, it seemed that we had fewer men on the field than the offense.  They had enough guys to block our rushers, yet at the same time they managed to find big open spots in the defensive backfield.  Do we not have 11 defenders?   How is it that we can neither pressure the quarterback nor cover the receivers?  Very disturbing.  We were beaten by the tandem of a rookie QB and a 103-year-old receiver.  How can we hope to beat the Texans next week?!

And then there were special teams.  I love Randall Cobb, but a runback that starts 9 yards deep in the end zone suggests inadequate coaching and poor judgment.  More problematic, though, is two missed field goals.  One wide and one very wide.  “One of the best kickers in the league,” I believe the TV commentator called him.  Okay, but those missing six point are a painful memory in a 3-point loss.   

So is there any good news?  Is there any hope? 

Well, first, as mentioned above, this is essentially the same team that went 13-0 last year.  While bewildering, it is good news because we know their potential.  It’s a great roster, and we know that the coaching staff has been effective in the past, too. 

Second, of the three losses, this was the least costly.  Losing in the Division, of course, is the worst of all.  (We haven’t done that yet.) Losing in the Conference is next.  (We’ve done that twice.)  Losing to a team from the AFC, though, is the least problematic sort of a loss, and that’s what the Colts loss was. 

Finally, as we discovered last year (and see almost every season), it’s not who’s hot at the beginning; it’s who’s hot at the end.  Last year’s Super Bowl champs were 9-7 at the end of the regular season.  While 2-3 is upsetting, it’s not cause for panic.  And I don’t think any of these guys – McCarthy, Capers, Rodgers, Matthews, Driver, etc. – I don’t think any of them will panic.  They’ll sit down and evaluate, they’ll address the problems, they’ll game plan, and they’ll head down to Houston expecting to win.

Go, Pack, go!

Week 5 Preview

Was it Bill Parcells who famously insisted that you are what your record says you are? 

I used to believe that, but this year I’m not so sure.

Are the Packers really a .500 team?  Are the Patriots?  Are the 0-4 Saints really the equal of the 0-4 Browns?  Are the Eagles and Vikings genuinely 3-1 quality teams? 

Our consideration of the Week 5 slate of games begins in the state of Pennsylvania where the 3-1 Eagles will visit the 1-2 Steelers.  Pittsburgh is coming off their bye, and they cannot afford to drop to 1-3 in a division that includes the Ravens.  Furthermore, I don’t really believe that Philly is as good as its record.  Perhaps both teams will surprise me – as they have both done already this season – but I expect a Steeler win. 

The Falcons have enjoyed tremendous hype for their impressive and undefeated September.  They’ll take their perfect record into D.C. (and we know not much has stayed perfect there since Jimmy Stewart’s “Mr. Smith).  The unbeaten and much-hyped Cardinals have already lost a shocker in Week 5.  Will Atlanta suffer the same fate?  I think it’s possible.

The other undefeated team is also hitting the road this week.  The Houston Texans take on the New York Jets in a game made all the more fascinating by the soap opera dysfunctionality of the Jets.  Will their play match their bluster, or will they be embarrassed again?  Who will quarterback?  What will their coach say and do?  I think the Texans are the better team – but then I thought that the 49ers were better than the Vikings, too.

Speaking of the 49ers, they host the Bills this Sunday.  Both teams are coming off of blowout games.  The 49ers blew out the Jets, while the Bills were being blown out by the New England Patriots.  No time for Buffalo to feel sorry for itself; they have to cross the country to play arguably the best team in the NFC.  Not a recipe for success for the Bills. 

The Saints continue to look for some recipe for success.  They (with the help of the officials and Graham Harrell) almost pulled it off in Green Bay last week.  Can they pull it off at home this week against the visiting Chargers?  Tough to say.  I think the Saint offense can keep up with anybody, but their defense may not be able to slow down the Chargers as effectively as the Chargers will be able to slow down the Saints.  Could New Orleans possibly drop to 0-5?!

One of the best match-ups of the week is the Broncos’ trip to New England.  I don’t think Denver is as good as the Patriots, but it is a renewal of the duel between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, which should be exciting.  I wish the game were being played in Denver, though.  I think that would even the playing field a bit. 

Within our own Division, the Lions have their bye this wee before returning to play at Philly next Sunday.  It’s tough to have to take your bye at 1-3.  I would think you’d be impatient to get back out there.  Detroit is an interesting mess so far in 2012.

Meanwhile, I’m afraid the other two Division rivals are likely to win this week.  The Bears are on the road, but they’re playing the Jaguars, and I do suspect that Chicago is the better team.  4-1.  Yuck.

Meanwhile, the Vikings get to stay home and host the Titans.  I’m slow to come around to be a believer in Minnesota.  The reality is, though, that they are playing better than Tennessee so far this season, and especially so on defense. 

Finally, our game is an early one this week.  After so many non-traditional time slots for Packer games last month, finally we’re back to a Sunday noon kickoff again.  We’re visiting the 1-2 Colts, who have lost two of Andrew Luck’s first three games as an NFL quarterback.  They are coming off a bye and playing at home, both of which will be to their advantage.  Meanwhile, they are also carrying the emotional load of the recent health news about their head coach, which is an impossible factor to calculate or predict.  In the end, I’m quite sure that Green Bay is the better team.  And most of the time in the NFL, the better team wins.  I expect the Packers to win on the road this Sunday.

And they’d better win on the road this Sunday, because next Sunday they’ll be on the road against the Houston Texans – perhaps the best team in the league right now.

Packers at Colts

End of the 1st Quarter

It was a perfect day for football this past Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field!  What an atmosphere!  The sky was clear and blue, the air warm (for late September), and the crowd absolutely jazzed.  Lots of excitement in the air, and a palpable eagerness to see the Packers bounce back from the previous Monday Night’s injustice. 

By halftime, our emotions were as hopeful and bright as the sky.  The Packer defense had ably kept a lid on the vaunted Saints offense, and Green Bay’s offense had shown some of its old efficiency and explosiveness.  It wasn’t a question whether we would win; it was only a question of by how much.

In the end, I was surprised by how much.  One point. 

The third quarter was a disaster.  So much so that even the part that was going well for us turned into a disaster!  Rodgers led a beautiful drive down the field that looked so much like the move-the-ball-at-will offense of 2011.  We were unstoppable on the way to the end zone.  And then that freak injury to Rodgers’ eye.  And then the simple handout that Graham Harrell was expected to transact.  And then the fumble, the recovery, and the drive going the other direction.  Ugh!

The late missed field goal by New Orleans near the end of the game was an appropriate symbol for the feeling of the game.  We had not won; we had escaped.  We had gone from robust cheers to something more like sighs of relief. 

Still, the “W” in our column counts just as much as the “W” in, say, the 49ers (34-0 over the Jets) or the Broncos (37-6) over the Raiders.  As they say, there are not style points in the NFL. 

So, after the first quarter of the season, the Packers are 2-2, and the NFC North is nearly upside down.  Weren’t we and the Lions expected to be playing king of the hill in our Division?  But we are a mere .500, while the Lions are licking their wounds at a disappointing 1-3.  The 3-1 Bears, meanwhile, have looked good in every game except the one against us, and the Vikings are arguably the biggest surprise of the first quarter of the 2012 season.  They are 3-1, including wins over the 49ers and Lions.  Who are these guys?!

Elsewhere, the Browns lost again, thus keeping the Saints company at 0-4.  The Patriots proved that they are good enough to play well for only half a game and still wipe you out.  The 49ers showed that you don’t want to have to play them the week after they lose.  And the Rams beat the Seahawks, which on the playground we used to call “Cheater’s Proof.”

Finally, one of the biggest takeaways from Week 4 – especially at Lambeau – was the fans’ short honeymoon with the real refs.  Green Bay was victimized by two patently awful calls.  The first was the unnoticed offensive pass interference that led to the Saints first touchdown.  The other was the uncalled Saints fumble on a kick return in the fourth quarter.  It was all very apparent to us on Lambeau’s big, beautiful scoreboards (see sample below), and the Green Bay fans were worked into a justifiable froth over it all.  But the scoreboard is not the replay booth, and the NFL (as well Green Bay) is fortunate that the Packers didn’t lose in the end.