The Anti-Eulogy

When Favre retired for the first time in 2008, Sports Illustrated and ESPN devoted the prime cuts of their online and televised resources to praise the man and his Hall of Fame career.

Since then, Favre has surely bolstered his statistics, adding and padding records along the way. But his reputation has suffered, as has his media treatment.

Today, SI.com has put together a pictorial of Favre's Top Ten Worst Moments. It's pretty ugly browsing for a Packer fan, inasmuch as 8 of the 10 pictures are familiar green-and-gold memories. The one bright spot is that, in his second-worst moment (last Sunday), he's wearing the hated purple.

Here's the link:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/multimedia/photo_gallery/1001/brett.favre.worst.moments/content.1.html?eref=sircrc

Perhaps when he really, finally retires for good, they'll return to remembering his best moments. It will be hard to choose just ten. But for now -- especially in the wake of what Viking fans will come to remember as "the interception" -- the scrapbook recalls his failures.

Jets vs. Colts

My affection for Mike Greenberg (Mike & Mike, ESPN Radio) made me a tiny bit receptive to the thought of the New York Jets in the Super Bowl. Still, my heart was primarily with the Colts.
It promised to be an interesting match-up of rookie coaches. It was funny, though, because we had come all the way through the entire regular season, and yet I still didn't have much of an impression of Coach Caldwell. Perhaps that a testament to his understated nature.

I had formed a pretty clear impression of Coach Ryan, on the other hand. And from what I saw of him, I definitely preferred the understated Caldwell to the blowhard Ryan.

The first half was unnevering. It made me wonder if the Jets were really going to surprise the whole football world. But that was a beautiful second half that the Colts played -- on both sides of the ball.

All the headlines said things like "Manning Rallies Colts to Beat Jets." Except for the "Jets" part, that has been the headline all season long, it seems. The Colts keep coming from behind and getting the "W." And Manning clearly deserved the MVP award he received.

While I was passionately rooting against the Vikings in the late game (more on that game in my next post), I did think a Manning-Favre Super Bowl would be an interesting match-up: a kind of generational duel between the current and future holders of all major NFL QB records.

So, in the end, my #3 and #4 teams (see below) will face each other. That's not a bad result out of a field of 12 teams. Although, now that the match-up is set, I'm not really sure that I prefer the Saints over the Colts. Kind of a toss-up for me. In any event, it will be a stress-free Super Bowl for me inasmuch as I wouldn't hate seeing either team win.

There was one team I definitely would have hated to see win the Lombardi Trophy -- and they lost the late-game, overtime heart-breaker on Sunday. 'More about that classic next time.

1. Green Bay Packers
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. San Diego Chargers
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. New York Jets
8. Baltimore Ravens
9. Philadelphia Eagles
10. Dallas Cowboys
11. New Engalnd Patriots
12. Minneosta Vikings

What To Watch For On Sunday

SI.com has a fascinating column about the great determining factor in which team wins a particular playoff game. Here is the link -- it's worth the reading (and especially for long, long-time Packer fans).

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/kerry_byrne/01/21/int.ladder/index.html?eref=sihp

The bottom line is that it's all about interceptions. And not just which QB throws more, but specifically which QB throws more than one.

That detail may make Viking fans nervous. Well, at least Viking fans who saw some of the "bad Brett" during his Packer days.

I have made no secret of my preferences this weekend. I want to see the Colts and Saints in the Super Bowl. And based on the QBs involved and the statistic in the cited article, I would say my chances are good. I believe Sanchez and Favre are more likely to have multiple-interception games than Manning and Brees.

On the other hand, we haven't seen much of "bad Brett" this season, thanks (I think) to the balanced offense in which he plays.

Still, the much-hyped Adrian Peterson hasn't crossed the hundred-yard threshhold for 8 straight games, Harvin is questionable for the game, and the Saints have the kind of explosive offense that could force Minnesota to play from behind. That scenario is the one most likely to coax "bad Brett" out of hiding.

President Romney?

After John McCain's very poor campaign and final showing against Barack Obama in November 2008, many Republicans began to think that they had nominated the wrong guy. "Wouldn't Mitt Romney have fared better?" they asked themselves.

The Green Bay Packers were Mitt Romney this past weekend.

After watching the Arizona Cardinals get dismantled in New Orleans, it was hard not to wonder how we would have fared in that contest. I'm quite certain that we wouldn't have done any worse. And I am suspicious that we would have done better.

Would we have beaten New Orleans? I wouldn't want to put money on it. But I'm quite sure that we would have made the game closer than the Cardinals made it.

Here is one positive thing for Packer fans to take away from the first two weekends of this postseason: we came back and made a game out of what looked like a blowout.

Almost every game played so far during this year's playoffs has been a no-contest contest. The winners have won handily. The losers have fallen down and never really gotten up again.

But the Packers got back up again. And again! The loss was crushing, to be sure, and especially the way the final plays themselves unfolded. But the mere fact that we fell so far behind -- and on the road! -- yet still came storming back to force overtime is a great credit to our team, as well as a very encouraging sign. In that regard, we did what the Bengals, Eagles, Patriots, Cardinals, Ravens, and Cowboys did not do.

Could Romney have beaten Obama? I don't know. But he probably would have played better than the team from Arizona did.

The NFL's Own "Warming" Hoax

I'm sure I listened to and read more sports pundit commentary going into this playoff season than last since I had so much more of a vested interest. And one of the great recurring themes I heard was captured in the image of "hot."

Which teams were hot? That seemed to be the great indicator for playoff success.

Again and again I heard these guys extolling the Cowboys and Packers as the hottest teams in the NFC. Green Bay, after all, had won 7 of 8 during the second half of the season, and that one loss was only by a single point on the final play of the game. And while the Cowboys didn't have quite such a streak, their dominating performances against the Saints and Eagles made everyone believers.

Meanwhile, over on the AFC side, was there any team hotter than the San Diego Chargers? Weren't they winners of 11 straight games, or something like that?

Now at the other end of the thermometer, you had teams like Indy, New Orleans, and Minnesota. Indy had taken its foot off the pedal. The Saints seemed to fall apart at the end of the season. And the Vikings' two late-season losses raised a lot of questions and eyebrows.

Well, remind me next year not to play any attention to these temperature-takers. "Hot" evidently has nothing to do with playoff success. For now the Packers, Cowboys, and Chargers are all cooling their heels at home, while the Colts, Saints, and Vikings move decisively on.

So Much For Expertise

Going into the Wild Card Weekend of games, SI.com published the playoff picks of 9 different experts on their staff.

Now, with two rounds of the playoffs behind us, it's fascinating (and, for a Packer fan, somewhat melancholy) to see how few of them got anything right.

Five of the nine experts (Don Banks, Jim Trotter, Ross Tucker, Kerry J. Byrne, and Dominic Bonvissuto) predicted a Chargers-Packers Super Bowl. Well, that's not gonna happen this year.

Meanwhile, Peter King was calling for a Chargers-Cowboys Super Bowl, which also went swirling down the drain this weekend.

And of the three remaining experts, none of them has both Super Bowl picks still eligible. Tim Layden and Andrew Perloff both predicted a Chargers-Saints match-up, and Damon Hack expected a Colts-Cowboys Super Bowl.

Not a soul picked the Vikings to go all the way. And not a soul picked the Jets to go all the way.

We shall see...

And Then There Were Four

A pretty disappointing Divisional Round weekend for my tastes. Of the four contests, only the Colts' game went my way.

Of course, the disappointment of losing 3-out-of-4 this weekend is small potatoes compared to the pain that followed that one particular loss the weekend before.

On the bright side, "Mike & Mike" (ESPN Radio) shared an interesting observation this morning about the NFL's version of the 'Final Four.' During the past 3 seasons, the NFL's Final Four (i.e., the four teams competing in the Conference Championship games) has featured a total of 12 different teams -- the maximum possible. In other words, not a single team in the NFL has repeated an appearance in a Conference Championship game during the past three years. That's quite an achievement of parity.

(By contrast, the MLB had 9 out of 12 different teams, and the NBA had 8 out of 12.)

This is, in my judgment, the best sort of parity. Obviously, the kind of parity in which all teams end with 8-8 records is not desirable. We don't need all the teams to be equally average every single season. But to have a major sport that does not feature some perennial winner is, I think, best for the game and for fan interest.

Well, in terms of my personal preferences... We've got 4 teams left out of the original 12 playoff teams: two of them come from the 'top half' of my preference list, and two come from the 'bottom half.' It makes this coming Sunday pretty straightforward for me: I'm pulling for the two home teams -- the Saints and the Colts -- to hold serve and advance to the Super Bowl.

1. Green Bay Packers
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. San Diego Chargers
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. New York Jets
8. Baltimore Ravens
9. Philadelphia Eagles
10. Dallas Cowboys
11. New Engalnd Patriots
12. Minneosta Vikings

Sleepless Nights?

Earlier this week, I pondered which members of the Packers might be experiencing some sleepless nights following our heart-breaking loss in Arizona. Well, evidently Dom Capers had been having some sleepless nights prior to that loss, for he needed to catch up on his sleep during the game.

Here is the story, along with a video link.

http://backporch.fanhouse.com/2010/01/14/d0m-capers-was-just-resting-his-eyes/?ncid=txtlnkusspor00000002

If we had won, of course, it would just be harmless and humorous footage (inchage?). Given that we lost, however, and lost largely because of a pathetic defensive performance, Capers' nap is much less funny.

Sleepless Nights

When I think how awful I felt in the wake of the Packers' epic loss on Sunday evening, I wonder how truly miserable the Packers themselves must feel. I am just a fan, but these are the guys who are investing their time, their energy, and their bodies in this endeavor!

I think of several individuals from the team and coaching staff who are probably lying awake at night. They stare at the ceiling, fearful that if they close their eyes they'll see the game pass before their eyes.

Aaron Rodgers

His first play was an interception and his last play was a fumble. How do you sleep peacefully with that? Plus, in spite of an amazing, heroic comeback from 17- and 21-point deficits, it's the play he didn't make -- the first offensive play in overtime, on which Rodgers overthrew an open Greg Jennings -- that cost us the game.

Nick Barnett

Mark Belling (WISN 1130 AM Milwaukee) is convinced that Barnett is the primary culprit in the defensive failure. As we have noted here before, the Packers have been vulnerable to over-the-middle passes in virtually every loss this season, and Belling claims that Barnett is the one who bears the greatest responsibility for that inadequate coverage.

Dom Capers

His revamped defensive unit was one of the great stories of 2009. They were a complete turnaround from the 2008 squad, and they were ranked (and talked about) among the elite defenses in the league. But they were publicly humiliated in Arizona. It's like we weren't allowed to have 11 guys out there or something. Wherever Warner threw it, there was an open Cardinal. It was truly embarrassing, and Capers has to know that if his defense had just made one clutch stop along the way, the offense could have carried us to victory.

Mike McCarthy

His onside kick call was brilliant. And he must have been setting the right pace on the sideline and in the locker room in order to keep the team from throwing in the towel after it turned so ugly so early. Still, you wonder if he left points on the field at the end of the first half. You wonder if he had the team emotionally ready to play, for the Cardinals seemed so much more energetic from the start. And you have to wonder if he was rope-and-doped by the Cardinals in these consecutive-weeks games.

After a few days, we'll look back and consider all that was excellent and encouraging about this season. For now, though, the bitter taste in the mouth remains.

Expert Analysis

Don't let the title fool you: the "expert analysis" is not mine

Last week, I was listening to some Chicago sports talk radio (I enjoy hearing the Bears' fans' angst). The commentators were trying to illustrate just how lousy the 2009 Bears were, and to that end they cited the "Aikman Ratings." I was not familiar with these, but apparently Troy Aikman has developed some system for evaluating and ranking offenses and defenses that utilizes a different formula than the traditional rankings used by the NFL. These Chicago guys were touting the Aikman approach -- partly, no doubt, because the Aikman method proves how poor the Bears were this season.

Well, the conversation got me wondering, and so I tried to track down the Aikman ratings online. I have included the link here:

http://www.twitlonger.com/show/2smnf

Bottom line for our purposes? According to Troy Aikman's calculations, the Green Bay Packers were the best all-around team in the playoffs. Oh well.

And, as I mentioned last week, every single "expert" at SI.com had predicted that the Packers would beat the Cardinals. Not all of them were so in love with Green Bay to think that we'd run through the entire NFC playoffs, but they were all confident that we'd win yesterday.

And we almost did. That's the real heartache this morning, isn't it? We almost won. In spite of the turnovers, the nightmarish start, and the embarrassing defense -- we STILL almost won!

I don't necessarily think that we deserved to win -- although there is some talk out there that we were robbed at the end: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/01/11/after-further-review-packers-got-screwed/ .

Meanwhile, Peter King offers good consolation to Packer fans this morning, and I'm grateful for it:

First, a few words about Green Bay. I feel for Packers fans this morning. That's an excruciating loss. The worst. It'll take days, weeks, to get over it, I'm sure. But that's sports. Sometimes you get your heart broken, and the only way to not get your heart broken is to not fall in love. And there is much to love about this Green Bay team. The quarterback's scary good, even if he did hold on to the ball too long on the last play of the season. (Aaron Rodgers career yards per game: 269.5. Peyton Manning career yards per game: 261.1.) Rodgers has a 22-year-old tight end, Jermichael Finley, and a 26-year-old receiver, Greg Jennings (who made the catch of his career, a one-handed catch of a Rodgers dart for a touchdown), to grow old with. There is hope on the defense. These Packers are going to be good for a long time.

Read more:http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/peter_king/01/10/mmqb/index.html?eref=sircrc#ixzz0cL6sNdNf

And Then There Were Eight

What did Michael Steadman say after his DAA coup fell through? "I'm so bitter my eyes hurt."

I will have to return to a post mortem of the Packers' amazing comeback loss in a day or so. I need to get through the first step or two of the football grief process. For this moment, however, I must be a generic fan who looks ahead without looking back. At least for tonight.



Well, four games means four losers. And four losers means four teams eliminated from the 12-team pool of playoff contenders. So now we're down to just eight teams that still have a hope of winning the Lombardi Trophy in 2010.

I have reproduced below my ordered list of preferences, and I have faded the text of those teams that have been eliminated.

My nightmare Super Bowl would have been Patriots-Vikings. I wouldn't have known for whom to cheer! Well, now at least that can't happen, thanks to the Ravens' domination of the Patriots -- in New England, no less, where the Patriots had not lost this season.

Back when New England was introduced as a team in the Super Bowl when they upset "The Greatest Show on Turf," I was a Patriot fan. After all the hype surrounding Belichick and Brady, the undefeated season, and the easy-to-hate Moss, however, I have grown quite tired of that team. And so I welcomed their defeat.

1. Green Bay Packers
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. San Diego Chargers
6. Cincinnati Bengals
7. New York Jets
8. Baltimore Ravens
9. Philadelphia Eagles
10. Dallas Cowboys
11. New England Patriots
12. Minnesota Vikings

So, based on my ordering and the match-ups next weekend, here are my preferences:

A) Cardinals over Saints
B) Cowboys over Vikings
C) Colts over Ravens
D) Chargers over Jets

I think all of these preferences are good possibilities, and so -- after I dry my eyes this week -- I may be able to care and cheer again for the teams that remain.

Two Down, One To Go

Four playoff games are on tap for this Wild Card weekend, and two of them have been played. Significantly for us, the two games that have been played are the other two re-match games.

In an unprecedented fluke of scheduling, 3 of the 4 Wild Card Weekend games are rematches from Week 17. And, interestingly, all three of those regular season finales were blowouts. The Packers dominated the disinterested Cardinals. The Jets handed it to the Bengals. And, perhaps most surprising of all, the Cowboys completely outplayed the Eagles.

The question was: What would those games look like when the same teams all met again in the first round of the playoffs?

And on Saturday, they looked pretty much the same. The Jets looked head-and-shoulders above the Bengals again, and the Cowboys overwhelmed the Eagles again.

So now it's the Packers' turn.

Interestingly, all of Sports Illustrated's experts -- all of them! -- are predicting a Green Bay victory. Check it out... It's about the only unanimous choice there!

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/football/nfl/01/07/expert.picks/index.html

Not only do they all expect Green Bay to go into Arizona and defeat the defending NFC Champs, several of them pick the Packers to go to the Super Bowl, and one of them is choosing Green Bay to win it.

(Meanwhile, for all the hype the Vikings enjoyed during the season, not one of these experts is picking them to even make it to the Super Bowl, let alone win it.)

So, at the end of the season, we have a lot of believers again... just as we did, you recall, at the beginning of the season. Hmmm.

We totally beat the Cardinals in the preseason. We completely outplayed them in Week 17. Now we just have to beat them a third time.

Can it be done?

Well, Dallas just did it to Philly.

Postseason Projections

The road to the Super Bowl begins in September, and 32 teams embark on that road with the same destination in mind.

Now it's January, and 20 of those 32 teams are no longer on that road. We are among the 12 that remain, and so it's time to consider our chances.

If we go far down this road, it will be because:

1) We protect Aaron Rodgers, which will enable our great passing game and set up our running game.

2) We establish that running game, allowing us to be balanced in our offensive attack, as well as enabling us to eat some clock and keep the other team's offense off the field.

3) We play downhill on defense -- aggressive, flying around, ball-hawking.

If we don't go far, it will be because:

1) The offensive line doesn't protect Rodgers.

2) The special teams unit gives up big returns.

3) Mason Crosby can't be counted on to convert truncated drives into field goals.

Meanwhile, more able prognosticators than I are beginning to weigh in.


Don Banks (SI.com) has ranked the Packers as 3rd among the playoff teams, behind only the Chargers and Cowboys. I find that quite remarkable. He puts us ahead of teams like the Colts, Patriots, and Saints. He puts us ahead of the Cardinals, who won the NFC last year. And he puts us well ahead of the Vikings, who beat us twice this year.


Here it the link where you can read his rationale. It sounds good to me!
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/don_banks/01/06/playoff.power.rankings/index.html?eref=sihp


Conversely, Banks' colleague, Peter King, ranks Green Bay as much more of a middle-of-the-pack team. He likewise ranks the Chargers and Cowboys atop the field (apparently he buys Dallas' recent run more than Green Bay's), and he adds the Colts into that top tier. King also esteems the Vikings, Saints, and Patriots as better than the Packers. He categorizes us with the Cardinals under the heading, "I'm on the Bandwagon, But..."


Here is King's reasoning:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/peter_king/01/03/mmqb/index.html


For myself, I have little doubt that, playing our best, we have the potential to beat anyone.


We know that our offense can score on anyone (we tallied the third-highest point total in the league this year). The concern is protecting Aaron. I know that problem seems to have been solved through personnel adjustments, which is great, but it's a worry.


Also, we know that our defense can be a game-changer. They led the league in run-stopping, and they set this season on fire with interceptions. My only concerns there are those short, over-the-middle passes that a couple of teams have used to victimize us. Our threshold seems to be 30 points. We let opponents score 30 or more points on us 5 times this season, and those are the 5 games we lost.


And then, finally, there are the special teams. That's my biggest fear: either the big kick return or the missed field goal. Perhaps these are old problems -- like pass protection -- and McCarthy has them solved. But these weaknesses have hurt us earlier in the season, and so I'm afraid of them in the postseason.


This post from RevengeOfTheBirds.com offers some insight into how the Cardinals propose to beat us. And it's not so much about capitalizing on our weaknesses as it is about thwarting our strengths. Interesting stuff. http://www.revengeofthebirds.com/2010/1/5/1234947/cardinals-defensive-gameplan-for


Well, the bottom line is that we have four games left to win. And I do believe that we'll start with a win in Arizona this Sunday afternoon.

Personal Preferences

Once we get to this point in every season -- i.e., the end of the season -- it is my custom to rank the remaining playoff teams in order of preference. This helps me clarify my cheering throughout the games, including the ones that don't include us.

And so, as I ponder the 12 options for who might hoist the Lombardi Trophy a few weeks hence, I am glad that the Broncos and Steelers are not possibilities, since I dislike both so much. But I still feel considerable dislike for some of the teams that remain. And so, with 12 teams still alive, here is my ranking of most liked to most loathed:

1. Green Bay Packers

2. Arizona Cardinals

3. New Orleans Saints

4. Indianapolis Colts

5. San Diego Chargers

6. Cincinnati Bengals

7. New York Jets

8. Baltimore Ravens

9. Philadelphia Eagles

10. Dallas Cowboys

11. New England Patriots

12. Minnesota Vikings

There is no hard-core science to this ranking. Sometimes it's about the coach, sometimes about a player, sometimes about the fans, and sometimes about the city. In the end, though, I think this fairly represents my spectrum of "most happy" to "most unhappy" candidates for Super Bowl Champions.

Arm-Wrestling with Children

In some games that I play with my kids -- many board games and some card games -- we are on equal footing. My age, size and strength does not make me a better dice roller.

On the other hand, on the occasions when we arm wrestle, play basketball or some such, I begin with obvious advantages. And sometimes, during such contests, one of my girls will ask, "Daddy, are you trying your hardest?"

That was the question that nagged at me as I watched the otherwise enjoyable drubbing of the Arizona Cardinals.

I think it's quite clear that the answer was 'No.' Arizona was not trying their hardest. After Minnesota won their early game and locked up the #2 seed, the Cardinals had nothing to play for. Accordingly, they began pulling out their stars and starters, and they played a pretty vanilla game.

So we beat 'em good, but it's hard to know what that means. Perhaps nothing more than the fantasy touchdown that George Plimpton scored in the Lions training camp in "Paper Lion."

Even if our 33-7 performance was a bit artificial, however, I believe it has some value for the Packers. First, it completes an 11-win season, which is nothing to sneeze at. Second, it means we're entering the playoffs sharp and playing our best ball. And, third, it means that we get to walk back into the same stadium against the same team with a feeling of familiarity and confidence. And IF -- just maybe -- the Packers jump out to an early lead in next Sunday's game, perhaps the Cardinals will begin to wonder in their own minds if the 33-7 game wasn't so artificial, after all.

Good Grief

Setting aside things that are actually important, today is one of the saddest days of each year for me: the Monday after the conclusion of the NFL regular season.

I'm not necessarily a proponent of the expanded 18-game schedule that some are advocating. Still, at a purely emotional level, I just feel that the NFL season is too short. It goes by too quickly. The NBA season goes on forever and ever. The baseball season in Wisconsin seems to go all the way from the last snowfall to the first. Hockey, golf, soccer, NASCAR? I don't know -- talk to someone who cares. But the NFL comes and goes so fast.

Now for the Packers, happily, the games go on. We're back in the playoffs, thanks to a tremendous 7-1 run in the second half of the season, following that debacle in Tampa. We'll reflect in more detail about the outstanding 2009 Packer season later.

For the moment now, though, a moment of silence... A moment to observe the passing of another regular season. No more full slates of 16 games to watch each weekend. No more multiple horse races for division titles, bye weeks, and wild card berths. Now it's just 11 games left, and it's one-and-done for each loser. And while the regular season ends on the happy note of 16 individual game winners and 12 winners for the season, the playoffs end with a loss for every team but one. Ruthless stuff.

So, a moment of silence for the passing of the 2009 regular season...

...and then we'll turn our attention to the postseason!

Week Seventeen -- A Look (Way) Ahead

The NFL must be very pleased with the situation in the AFC. While the NFC playoff invitations are all addressed and it's now only a matter of seating arrangements, the AFC only has 5 teams that are technically eliminated from playoff contention entering the final week of the season.

The Colts, Chargers, Bengals, and Patriots are all in. Meanwhile, the Ravens, Jets, Broncos, Steelers, Texans, Jaguars, and Dolphins are ALL competing for the two wild card spots. That makes for an amazing percentage of Week 17 games that have playoff significance. And other games without postseason implications no doubt have coaching implications (e.g., Jacksonville at Cleveland, Chicago at Detroit).

Meanwhile, for our purposes, this week's games are all about who and where we play. Green Bay will end up as either the #5 or #6 team in the NFC. According to i94sports.com, we could find ourselves playing in any of three different places in the first round of the playoffs.

The simplest formula is this: If we win on Sunday, we'll be back in Arizona the following week to play the Cardinals again.

Even if we lose to Arizona, we might still be back there the following week. On the other hand, it is possible that we might play in Dallas or in Minnesota.

No matter how you slice it, our first-round game will be a re-match. It will either be an immediate re-match with the Cardinals, or a chance to beat the Cowboys again, or an opportunity for revenge against the Vikings.

Any of our three options will be meteorologically friendly -- no frozen tundra in Arizona, Texas, or the Metrodome. If I had to lose to someone, I would find it less noxious to lose to the Cardinals than to the Cowboys or Vikings. But if there is one team I would really like to beat and knock out of the playoffs, of course, it's Minnesota.

I can't root for the Packers to lose, and so I will effectively be cheering for a Cardinal re-match. But if Green Bay does lose in Arizona, then I shall hope that the Cowboys and Vikings lost, which would earn us a date with the Vikings the following week. It would be the shortest trip, the best-known opponent, and the very sweetest victory.

NFL Shockers

The old NFL adages say, "That's why they play the game" and "On any given Sunday." Both attest to the same basic principle: namely, that sometimes things don't go as expected on the football field.

And that was true in spades this past weekend.

Look at the Saints. They're playing for the top seed in the NFC playoffs, they're trying to right their ship after being upset by the Cowboys, they're playing at home, and they're hosting the 2-12 Buccaneers.

And they lose.

How do you let that happen?!

Likewise, the Vikings. They have a chance to gain ground on the Saints and home field advantage through the playoffs. They, too, need to right their ship. And they also get to play a team with nothing really to play for.

And they lose.

The Colts are playing at home. They're two games away from a perfect season. They're hosting the Jets, and they show that they're able to beat 'em. But wait! It's time for Indy's annual sabbatical. Every years, it seems, they go through the same pattern. They lock up their Division and playoff spot early, and then they have to debate their policy in end-of-the-season meaningless games. Each year, they opt to rest players and not try to win. And, more often than not, it doesn't work out well for them in the playoffs.

This year's case was even worse, however. For they did have something to play for: perfection. It was within their reach. But they passed on it in favor of resting and protecting their players. Even though they're guaranteed a bye week for rest and recuperation.

So the Colts inserted their back-ups, and they lost at home.

Perhaps the worst case of all, however, is the Giants. Clinging to playoff life, they have everything to play for in a home game -- indeed, their historic final home game in the Meadowlands. They're coming off a whooping of the division-rival Redskins. They seemed to have regained their early season mojo. And they get to host a team -- do we see a pattern here? -- with nothing to play for.

Not only do they lose the game, the Giants get absolutely beaten. It was a drubbing, an embarrassment, a public humiliation. Carolina came in and beat New York 41-9, knocking them out of the playoff hunt before their own fans. What an ugly and painful conclusion for a team that jumped out to a 5-0 start this season. Unbelievable.

And, finally, speaking of great starts and disappointing finishes... How 'bout them Broncos! They opened 2009 with an amazing 6-0 record, but now they enter the final week of the season needing a whole series of things to happen in order to make the playoffs (see below, compliments of SI.com).

Denver clinches a playoff spot with:

1) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie OR

2) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + PIT loss or tie OR

3) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + HOU win OR

4) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie OR

5) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + HOU win OR

6) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss OR

7) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss OR

8) PIT loss + BAL loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss OR

9) PIT loss + HOU loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss OR

10) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

For our part, meanwhile, the landscape is pretty straightforward. We'll either end up as the 5th seed or the 6th seed in the NFC playoffs. We'll have to hit the road next weekend to play someone -- probably Arizona, but not necessarily.

The fascinating prospect is that we might go to Minnesota. More about that possibility tomorrow...

"No, Please, After You"

Week 16 was a remarkable one in the NFL. So many compelling games, and so many surprising outcomes.

For the moment, however, we turn our attention to just two.

I am reminded of the 'politeness battles' that you sometimes see at the entrance to a building or at a small traffic intersection. Two people arrive at the same spot at the same time, and each one politely defers to the other. "After you," the one gestures. "No, please, after you," the other responds in kind. And what follows is several quick moments of partial starts, hesitations, and magnanimity as each party insists that the other go first.

So it is at the top of the NFC.

Going into Week 13, the Saints were 11-0 and thinking about a perfect season. The Vikings, meanwhile, were 10-1 and thinking about the top seed in the NFC. But then Minnesota got embarrassed by the Cardinals: they fell two games behind the Saints, and question marks began to emerge.

Both top NFC teams held serve in Week 14, and so we entered Week 15 with the Saints inching ever closer to perfection and with the Vikings still thinking #1 seed and in excellent position for the #2.

But then the Saints got upset at home by the Cowboys. It was an amazing game, as the Saints were presumably the cream of the NFC crop and the Cowboys were in the midst of their December swoon. The quest for 16-0 was dead, and the Vikings could make up ground.

But, no. The Vikings had to leave the friendly confines of the Metrodome again, and again they got embarrassed by their hosts -- this time the Panthers -- by a score of 26-7.

Finally, in Week 16, the same scenario again.

The Saints were upset at home. Again. As with the Cowboy game, they spotted their opponents too many points at the beginning, and then couldn't quite score enough to win in the end. Yet this time it wasn't the Cowboys -- a legitimate playoff contender -- but the hapless Buccaneers. Woe is New Orleans!

Once again, the Saints had politely gestured to the Vikings: "Here, we're opening the door for you!" And, once again, the Vikings replied, "No, please, after you!"

Minnesota went on the road again -- where they have become suspiciously ineffective -- and they too managed to lose to a lousy team with nothing to play for but pride. As in the Saints/Bucs game, the Vikings spotted the Bears a big early lead. And then, after roaring all the way back, they lost the contest in overtime.

And while the Saints and Vikings keep politely waiting for the other, it looks like the Eagles are going to go barging through the door, instead.