Revenge Road

Well, we have come to the NFL’s version of the ‘Elite Eight,’ and the Packers are in it.  First, though, a quick look at the other games…

After so many years of the Browns being my favorite AFC team, I don’t have a good option in the Ravens-Broncos match-up.  My only real motivation in that game will be a pretty remote one: namely, I don’t want Jim Harbaugh to out-succeed John Harbaugh, who I think is a much more likeable guy.  So I’ll be pulling for the Ravens.

In the other AFC contest, I’m afraid I’m really rooting uphill.  It was not that many weeks ago that the Patriots annihilated the Texans, and it’s a little hard to imagine Houston reversing that this weekend.  It’s possible, it’s what I’m hoping for, but it’s not really what I’m expecting. 

In the other NFC game, my hope and my expectation do go together.  Even though Atlanta is the #1 seed, I really believe that these Seahawks are going to go in there and upset them.  I don’t doubt that the Falcons can beat them; I just don’t think they will. 

And then there’s our game.  It’s the best match-up of the weekend, and the media are enjoying the several Aaron Rodgers and revenge storylines related to this particular game. 

There is the immediate revenge for the Week One loss at Lambeau.  There is the prospect of winning this game and then getting to avenge the infamous loss in Seattle earlier this season.  And there is the personal grudge that Rodgers feels towards his childhood team that passed him by on Draft Day, leaving him to sit in public humiliation as he dropped all the way to 24.  I’m glad he did.  Perhaps he is, too.  But all accounts report that Rodgers is motivated by the slightest slights, and so I expect a profoundly motivated Aaron Rodgers on display tonight. 

I like that aspect of tonight’s game working in our favor.  I also like the Vikings as a warm-up for this game.  I like that we’re coming into San Francisco with a head of steam, while they’re coming off a bye.  I think the 49ers have a better defense and a better running game than we do, but I like our receivers and our quarterback better.  And that, of course, brings me to a sort of philosophical question:  Is the applicable truism that defense wins championships or that it’s a quarterbacks league?  Tell me the answer to that, and I’ll tell you who’s going to win this game. 

Meanwhile, it may turn out that the most interesting comparison of the two teams involves the placekickers.  Both the Packers and 49ers had inconsistent kickers who gave them cause for concern this season.  And so the question is:  Which coach was the better psychologist?  Is it better to bring in competition and then assure your old kicker that he’s still a winner, or better to stick by him through it all and never (publicly) question or doubt that he’s a winner?  For all the talk about other key match-ups, it will be interesting to see if the game comes down to a kicker who is clutch or a kicker who chokes. 

If we come out of San Francisco with a win, then I think we’re headed to New Orleans, for I am fairly comfortable with either the Seahawks coming here or the Packers going to Atlanta next Sunday.  Tonight is, in my judgment, the real NFC Championship Game for us. 

Personal Rankings .2

Well, the Wild Card weekend is in the books, and it went as well as it could possibly go in terms of my personal preferences.  So now it’s time for an update of my rankings.  As I explained before this past weekend’s games, these lists do not represent my predictions or my estimation of quality.  It’s just a ranking of what I want. 

(The shading indicates the teams that have been eliminated.)

First, on the NFC side:

1. Packers
2. Seahawks
3. Falcons
4. Redskins
5. 49ers
6. Vikings 

Meanwhile, here is the AFC breakdown:

1. Texans
2. Bengals
3. Broncos
4. Ravens
5. Colts
6. Patriots

Blend the two lists, and here are my personal preferences of 2012 playoff teams:

1. Packers
2. Texans
3. Seahawks
4. Bengals
5. Falcons
6. Broncos
7. Ravens
8. Colts
9. Redskins
10. Patriots
11. 49ers
12. Vikings

It’s still possible, of course, that the Super Bowl might feature the 49ers against the Patriots, which would be a no-win situation for me.  I’m not sure I could even watch it!  On the other hand, it could be a Packers-Texans match-up, which I would welcome in more ways than one. 

For now, after the Packers successfully dispatched my least favorite of the 12 playoff teams, the time has come for them to perform the same service on the second-to-last team on my list!

Feeling Cranky

In cheerful reference to the familiar children’s Christmas song, I identified last week all I wanted for the playoffs.  While I specified the “two front teeth” that I wanted, I came out of the weekend with a hockey player’s smile.  The Packers lost, the Cowboys lost, and the Vikings are in the playoffs. 

So, now, Green Bay didn’t get a bye week.  They have to face Adrian Peterson again, which has been a nightmare both times they’ve done it so far this season.  And if they do manage to win this time, they’ll be rewarded with a trip to San Francisco to play the rested 49ers.

In light of all that, I have a hard time not seeing last Sunday’s game in Minnesota as a disaster.   

And such an unnecessary disaster, too.  How do you come out so flat when you know how much you’re playing for?  How do you score 34 points and not win?  How do you give up 400+ yards of offense to a team with a mediocre 2nd-year quarterback?  How do you let a guy run for 200 yards, when everyone and his brother knew going in that that was the game plan? 

I think of myself as a glass-half-full guy, but I just don’t see a bright side to this, at all.  And I am much less hopeful about the playoffs in general than I was one week ago.  We have a very tough road ahead of us, and it’s our own stupid fault.

A lot of folks were glowing afterwards because it was such a great game.  Such a classic.  So memorable.  Yeah, whatever.  I’d rather have a forgettable 30-point blowout win than a memorable 3-point loss.

Perhaps that’s what is ahead for us today – a happy, forgettable, blowout win.  Every SI.com expert is picking the Packers to win tonight.  So, too, does every ESPN.com expert – the only unanimous game of the weekend, by the way.  And Bill Simmons offers this extended, encouraging analysis in advance of tonight’s game:

Green Bay's receivers (-30.5) over Minnesota's receivers

On one side: Jordy "I'm Finally Healthy" Nelson, Greg "Me Too" Jennings, Randall "I'm Secretly Terrifying" Cobb and James "I Swung Some Fantasy Leagues" Jones. On the other side: Jarius Wright, Jerome Simpson and Michael Jenkins. Come on. Now throw in …

Indoors Christian Ponder (-12) over Outdoors Christian Ponder

The 2012 Vikings played outside four times and lost all four games: at Washington (lost by 12), at Seattle (lost by 10), at Chicago (lost by 18), at Green Bay (lost by nine). Ponder's best game happened in Washington (352 yards, 2 TDs, 2 picks), although he had Percy Harvin at that point (11 catches, 133 yards). In Week 9 at Seattle, with Harvin hobbled, the Seahawks held him to 63 yards on 22 pass attempts (you read that correctly), sacked him four times and picked him once. In Week 12 at Chicago, he threw 43 times for just 159 yards (one TD, one pick). In Week 13 at Green Bay, he threw 25 times for a whopping 119 yards (one TD, two picks) — and that was with Peterson (210 yards, six or seven "HOLY SHIT!" moments) playing out of his mind. So in Ponder's last three outdoor road games, he attempted 90 passes that yielded just 341 yards. Not even four yards per pass attempt! I mean, I wanted no part of wagering on Christian Ponder in a road playoff game even before I looked this stuff up.

PACKERS (-7.5) over Vikings

Again, Aaron Rodgers vs. Christian Ponder in Lambeau … and the line is less than 10????? Come on. Stop it.

The Pick: Packers 34, Vikings 17

Also, here are a couple of more fun facts from ESPN.com that are encouraging to Packer fans:

With temperatures expected to be in the low 20s for tomorrow night's Packers-Vikings game, it could be the coldest game Adrian Peterson has ever started. He's only started two games in his career with freezing game-time temperatures. While he's moved the ball effectively, he's also lost fumbles in each game. Those fumbles lost would be his only two in a 36-game span ending in Week 8 this season. Overall, he averaged 4.6 yds/rush in freezing games, a half yard worse than his career average (5.1).

From Elias: History says the Packers will figure out Adrian Peterson this weekend. According to Elias, 5 players in NFL history have rushed for at least 247 yards against an opponent in the regular season and faced that same opponent in the postseason. None of them managed a 100-yard playoff game and only Emmitt Smith reached the endzone of those 5.

Finley, Nelson, and Cobb are all expected to be in the line-up tonight, and the defense will get Charles Woodson back.  Set the two starting rosters side-by-side, and I honestly don’t think it’s much of a contest.

The bottom line is that I expect us to win tonight.  And it may be that these guys are actually better when they’re agitated.  Clearly Aaron Rodgers uses negative stuff to keep him motivated, and perhaps that is part of the larger psyche of this team. 

If so, then they have the Vikings (and the 49ers) right where they want them.