Saturday, January 28, 2012

If Football Were… Not Football

I am still licking my wounds from the Packers’ early exit from the postseason.  And as I do – and as I try to satisfy the sports fan in me with other sports as the NFL’s sun gradually sets – I find myself thinking that we’d be better off if football were like other sports.

If football were golf, for example, then the Packers’ one bad round would not have eliminated them.  They’d still be in the lead heading into Sunday.

Likewise, if football were NASCAR.  I don’t pretend to know much about NASCAR and how it works, but I gather that there is some formula involving both wins and points.  So, if football were NASCAR, Green Bay’s combination of wins and points would certainly still have them in the lead for the cup at the end.

Likewise, if football were the Tour de France – we’d still be in the lead heading into Super Bowl Sunday. 

If football were boxing, and the season represented a single boxing match, then the Packers would win the Super Bowl by split decision.

If football were baseball or basketball, then the playoffs would be comprised of five- or seven-game series.  And I challenge you to identify which of the original eleven other playoff teams would take a series from this year’s Packers.

And so I console myself that, if football were like other sports, the 2011 Packers would walk away with the Lombardi Trophy again.  But if football were like other sports, I wouldn’t watch and I wouldn’t care.  Football is football.  And we lost.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

The Math of My Emotions

I’ve always known that there is a proportionate relationship between disappointment and expectation, but I’ve never been exactly sure how to quantify it. 

My own experience, like yours, is that the greater the expectation about someone or something, the greater the disappointment if that someone or something fails.  If you didn’t expect much, on the other hand, then you don’t find yourself very hurt by disappointment. 

(In this regard, I have observed that some people cultivate low-expectations in many areas of life as a kind of coping mechanism: that is to say, they deliberately keep their hopes down as a subconscious way of insulating themselves from the pain of disappointment.  This is the fearful self-preservation, it seems to me, that lies behind most cynics and skeptics, as well as a great many sarcastic individuals.  They present themselves as wise, cosmopolitan, hard-nosed realists.  In fact, however, many of them are just simply afraid of getting their hopes up about anything important.)

In the wake of Sunday’s painful loss, I have been contemplating my experience of Packer-fan disappointment.  I am confirmed in my understanding that disappointment is the negative counterpart to expectation, and I have come to the conclusion that expectation is three-dimensional.  That is to say, expectation has height, it has length, and it has depth.  As a function of expectation, therefore, disappointment can be measured in terms of volume.

The “height” of expectation is perhaps the most obvious dimension, for we speak routinely about ‘high’ and ‘low’ expectations.  In the case of the Packers, the expectations were extremely high.  Indeed, at certain points in the season, they literally could not have been higher, inasmuch as there was talk of perfection and doing what no team in NFL history had ever done before. 

The “length” of expectation is less talked about, but it is clearly a significant factor.  When I say ‘length,’ I’m thinking in terms of time.  If I have high expectations about a thing for only a day or two, the level of disappointment is not nearly so great as if I had harbored those high expectations over the course of many days – even weeks and months.  The longer an expectation is in place, the more ingrained it becomes.  And the more ingrained an expectation is, the more profound the disappointment when the expectation does not come to fruition.  In the case of the Packers, the “length” of expectation was about as long as it can be for a football team.  From the conclusion of last year’s Super Bowl until the conclusion of last Sunday’s game: that was the length of time during which we have been expecting these Packers to win next month’s Super Bowl. 

Finally, there is the issue of “depth,” and this is a very individual matter.  In other words, virtually all Packer fans had “high” and “long” expectations for this team.  How deep one’s expectations go, however, is a personal matter.  Some fans are rather casual, while others are very intense.  Some fans watch the game when they don’t have anything else going on, while other fans bump everything else in their lives in order to see the game.  And so on.

I can’t say for anyone else how “deep” their expectations went.  For me?  Well, I’m a guy who cares enough to write a blog about football and the Packers a couple of times a week.  For you?  Well, you care enough to read a blog about the Packers.

So where does all of this lead?  First, to a formula:

D = (–1) Eh x El x Ed

In other words, “disappointment” equals the negative of the “height of expectation” times the “length of expectation” times the “depth of expectation.”  And, as we explained above, Packer fans’ expectations could not have been any higher or any longer than they were.  And so if, for any given fan, the expectations also ran pretty deep, then he or she is experiencing a truly significant volume of disappointment these days.

You and me both.

Sunday, January 15, 2012

Home Cooking and a Bad Taste

Since the current playoff system was introduced in the NFL, never have all four home teams won in the Divisional Round.  When the Packers ran out onto Lambeau Field late Sunday afternoon, all three of the previous home teams had already won this weekend.

The Green Bay Packers obliged history by losing to the New York Giants.  And in a most uncharacteristic fashion.

So, let’s take a look back at the weekend that was.

 

Broncos-Patriots

The late Saturday game wasn’t much of a contest:  a real disappoint-ment after the thriller earlier in the day.  There’s no question that the Patriots were the better offense -- we all knew that going in.  But while the Bronco defense is better than New England’s, it wasn’t good enough to slow down Brady & Co.  The notoriously poor Patriot defense, meanwhile, was sufficient for the lesser task of stopping the Broncos.  Or perhaps it was the Patriot offense that stopped Denver’s offense.  After all, it was the worst possible scenario for the Broncos, a team built to run.  But it’s hard to be a run-first team when you’re down by 14 and 21 early.  No contest.

 

Texans-Ravens

Houston fans have to wonder what might have been.  What might have been with one fewer interception?  What might have been if their starting quarterback had stayed healthy?  Or his back-up?

The Texans performed heroically through their season of setbacks, and they did an impressive job in their two postseason games, as well.  They almost pulled off the upset in Baltimore, but they simply made too many mistakes…  something of a theme among losing teams this weekend.

Meanwhile, were the Ravens’ pants even regulation NFL gear? They looked like dancers out there.

 

Saints-49ers

This was one for the books.  This was the kind of loss that will give New Orleans fans nightmares for weeks to come.  New Orleans coaches and players, too. 

It was a classic match-up of offense-vs.-defense, and the defense was winning -- as it so often does in the postseason.  For 55 minutes, San Francisco had made the game their kind of game, had kept the score low, and had largely contained the explosive Saints offense.  And then, with just five minutes left to go, New Orleans took their first lead of the game, and a Saints’ win suddenly seemed inevitable.  It just looked like it didn’t matter how far or how long New Orleans was behind: they could burst out and score at will.  That’s what it looked like.

But then the final five minutes turned into a scoring-fest and a terrific battle of nerves.  Through it all, I honestly expected the Saints to prevail in the end.  They were the hot team, they were the scoring machine, and they were the guys with all of the playoff experience.  But you have to be impressed by what Alex Smith and the 49ers managed to do.

So now what to make of the Saints…  They won it all at the end of the 2009 season.  They looked like they had what it took to repeat in 2010, but then were upset in the playoffs on the road against the unlikely Seahawks.  They were the hottest team going into the postseason at the end of 2011, but with that one nagging question hanging over them: Could they win on the road? 

And they couldn’t. 

It’s hard to think that won’t play into their team psyche in 2012.  They’ll have to secure home field advantage, or else they’ll walk into someone else’s place in January and feel like they’re walking under a ladder or across a broken mirror. 

For all of that, though, the Saints’ fans are some of my favorite people right now -- although I don’t know any of them personally. I wish I did, for they are the ones who would understand: they are the ones who know exactly how we feel right now.  Such high hopes dashed.  So much potential squandered by turnovers and mistakes.  Such a bitter taste in our mouths on this momentous weekend.

 

Giants-Packers

Green Bay is a profoundly Catholic city: how ironic that the Packers should be buried by a Hail Mary.

Well, the last play of the first half can hardly be considered the fatal blow against a good team like the Packers.  And yet, in my own mind, the game was in question even earlier than that.

Make no mistake, I was very confident heading into this game.  If both teams played their best ball, I was certain we’d win. 

That didn’t happen, though, did it?  Both teams didn’t play their best ball.

I felt sure we would win when we took the field and kicked off to new York.  I felt sure we would win when we held the Giants to a field goal on the opening drive.  I felt sure we would win when I saw our offense move like a machine down the field, even though it ended in only three points.  I even felt sure we would win when we gave up the big play that allowed the Giants to go up 10-3. 

But when McCarthy opted for an onside kick, then I stopped being sure. 

It was a 10-10 game in the second quarter and we were playing at home.  What gives?  That’s just too cutesy, it seems to me, for a superior team. That’s what the underdog does.  That’s what the insecure team does. 

It may be, though, that our fate was sealed even earlier than that questionable coaching call. 

I hate to mix the events of a mere game with real-life tragedy, but it’s hard not to wonder about the effect of the death of Joe Philbin’s son. With due respect to the New York defense, our offense just never looked in sync.  No rhythm.  No balance.  Poor concentration.  Lots of mistakes.  Lots of drops.  They just weren’t themselves.

Ironically, of course, the fear going into the postseason was that our defense would be our Achilles heel.  But not so.  The defense played rather well with the ugly hand that was dealt them throughout the game.  It was the offense -- the conspicuous strength of this team all season long -- it was the offense that failed so miserably.  

We’ll write a more suitable epitaph on the 2011 season as a whole later.  It’s too early right now, though, and the emotions are too raw. 

It’s hard to believe, and it’s very hard to live with this bad taste in my mouth.

Saturday, January 14, 2012

One of the Best

Some sports weekends simply stand out above the rest.

The weekends of March Madness are uncommonly exciting.  The Masters weekend has a unique appeal.  Thanksgiving weekend, with its traditional football at a meaningful point in the season, is terrific. 

And then there is this weekend: the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. 

Unlike the Conference Championship and Super Bowl weekends, there are games on both Saturday and Sunday, which is great stuff for football fans.  Plus, it’s the playoffs, which means the games have a level of urgency and importance unlike almost any regular season games.  And, most appetizing of all, the best teams in the NFL are playing one another this weekend.  Outstanding!

The Packers haven’t played for a couple of weeks – and some of them haven’t played since beating the Bears on Christmas Day.  But now we take the field for the right to host the NFC Championship Game next Sunday.

Green Bay was the wire-to-wire top-ranked team in the NFL.  As defending champs, who entered 2011 more healthy and potent than they ended 2010, they were regarded from Week One as the team to beat.  And as they racked up victory after victory, their reputation only grew.

Then came Kansas City, and the bloom has been somewhat off the rose ever since.  A lot of talk about the Saints, the 49ers, the Patriots, and Tim Tebow. 

That’s okay.  I don’t know that this particular team is very invested in talk and hype.  I do think they are invested in excellence, however, and in winning, and in repeating. 

Last year, we barely squeaked into the playoffs, and then won three road games on the way to that tough battle against the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV.  This year, we are the #1 seed instead of #6, we are healthier than we were a year ago, and we’re playing at home.  By all rights, we should be the favorites to meet some AFC victim in Indy next month. Still, I’m hearing a lot of talk about how explosive the Saints are, how stingy and well-coached the 49ers are, and how balanced, hot, and aggressive the Giants are.

We know the scene.  We saw it in 2007, when New York came into Lambeau and upset Green Bay.  But we had Brett Favre throwing INTs and retiring back then – so we’re better off this year, I would say.

Damon Hack, Peter King, Mike Golic, and 7 out of 10 experts at ESPN.com all expect the Packers to win.  And so do I.

Elsewhere, I find myself feeling almost indifferent about the other NFC game.  Truth be told, if I have to lose to someone in the NFC, I would rather it be the Giants this weekend than either the Saints or 49ers next weekend.  And I’m not sure which team I would really rather face.  I lean toward the 49ers, but in the long run if I had to choose one of them to win it all, I’d prefer the Saints.  So I don’t know where my heart will lie when the teams take the field tonight.

Meanwhile, in the AFC, my affection is with the two underdogs – the Texans and Broncos.  We’ve seen plenty of the Patriots and Ravens in the circle of AFC power.  I’d be glad for some fresh faces – and I find a lot of the Denver and Houston faces rather appealing. 

Still, when it all comes down to watching the games, there is nothing like watching the Packers in the playoffs.  I’ll root and cheer and stew during the other three games, but when Green Bay takes the field, my palms will sweat, I’ll pace around the room, and I won’t feel at peace again until the final gun sounds.

It’s finally here.  It’s one of the best weekends of the year for sports fans.  Let’s hope it is for Packer fans, in particular.

Sunday, January 8, 2012

And Then There Were Eight

The first weekend of NFL playoffs is in the books now, and it was a fascinating set of games.

First, how about those Texans?  What an improbable group, and you have to admire how they have managed to keep winning in spite of injuries that would have made lesser men give up.  It speaks to the character of the team and the quality of the coaching that the Texans have gotten to this point in spite of a plague of quarterback injuries. 

As the commentators picked up on just after halftime, there was a bit of Badger revenge in the Texan-Bengal match-up.  A year ago, Andy Dalton’s TCU team upset J.J. Watts’ Wisconsin Badgers in the Rose Bowl.  But Dalton and the Bengals never really recovered from Watts’ pick-six and sack at the end of the first half. 

Then there was the Lions’ visit to New Orleans.  What can you say?  I was pulling for the Lions, but not because I like them: I was just less afraid of seeing them again than of hosting the red-hot Saints on January 22nd.  That said, the better team won, and as my personal rankings below indicate, I’m not sorry to see the Lions go home.

Sunday’s two games, meanwhile, were night-and-day different.  The first game was a rout, while the second game was an overtime thriller.

Atlanta was embarrassed in New York.  I suppose that is a little better than being embarrassed at home, which is how they were knocked out of the playoffs last year.  But rarely have we seen such offensive ineptitude by a playoff team.  Remember that Peter King picked the Falcons to go to Indy and win it all.  But boy did they stink it up today: shut out on offense, and regularly shut down on 3rd- and 4th-and-short.  Ugly.  It’s going to be a long offseason in Atlanta, where folks expected a good team to take it up to the next level. 

And then there was the late game:  Pittsburgh in Denver.  In the first quarter, Denver looked impotent, and it seemed that if the Steelers just cleaned up their own sloppiness, they’d run away with the game.  But then, in the second quarter, Denver came to life.  It was a remarkable performance, which will only add to the Tebow legend.  How many guys throw for over 300 yards with only 10 completions?

In the second half, though, it looked like the old, grizzled, playoff-tested team was going to show the poise and talent to come back and win it on the road.  Denver couldn’t do much on offense, while the Steelers had that look of inevitability.

If the Broncos had lost, I would have been pretty bitter about that inadvertent whistle on the backward pass that was ruled as an incompletion.  Denver would have had the ball in the red zone, they would have gotten at least some points, and they would have had, I think, an insurmountable momentum and lead.  Instead, the Steelers kept the ball, drove down the field, and regained momentum on their own side for the rest of the second half. 

Then came overtime.  Hating the prospect of a big Pittsburgh comeback, I was yelling at the TV.  “Throw the ball,” I called out, “they’re not expecting it!”  And, sure enough, on a great play action pass, the Broncos scored on the first play, winning after just 11 seconds of overtime play.  Amazing.

In the end, I went two-for-two this weekend.  Both my AFC picks won, while both my NFC picks lost.  We can’t have that continue into next weekend!  On the other hand, all four home teams won this weekend, and we’d certainly be happy to see that trend continue for the rest of the playoffs.

I have copied below my own personal-preference rankings of the 6 AFC playoff teams, the 6 NFC playoff teams, and all 12 NFL playoff teams.  All in all, it was a good weekend for me, as the two teams I hated most have both been knocked out.  And so my worst-case Super Bowl scenario is extinct, and I can bid farewell to Ndamukong Suh, Matthew Stafford, “Big Ben,” James Harrision, and Troy Polamalu.  Good riddance.  I may not be happy about who takes home the Lombardi Trophy come February, but at least I know now that I won’t be mortified.

 

AFC

  1. Houston Texans
  2. Denver Broncos
  3. Cincinnati Bengals
  4. Baltimore Ravens
  5. New England Patriots
  6. Pittsburgh Steelers

NFC

  1. Green Bay Packers
  2. Atlanta Falcons
  3. New York Giants
  4. New Orleans Saints
  5. San Francisco 49ers
  6. Detroit Lions

NFL

  1. Green Bay Packers
  2. Houston Texans
  3. Atlanta Falcons
  4. Denver Broncos
  5. Cincinnati Bengals
  6. New York Giants
  7. New Orleans Saints
  8. Baltimore Ravens
  9. New England Patriots
  10. San Francisco 49ers
  11. Detroit Lions
  12. Pittsburgh Steelers

 

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Let the Games Begin!

They all say that they’re just playing one game at a time and that the coming Sunday’s game is their only focus.  Maybe.  But this is what they are really all playing for and focused on:  the playoffs!

The 2011 NFL Playoffs begin today with a pair of Wild Card match-ups, followed by another set on Sunday.  Great stuff! 

The Packers, of course, owners of the best record in the entire NFL, do not play this weekend.  They get to stay home, rest, and mend, watching the other guys knock heads for an extra weekend.  And one of those teams we’ll be watching this weekend will be Green Bay’s next opponent on Sunday afternoon, January 15th. 

Four NFC teams take the field today and tomorrow:  New Orleans, Atlanta, Detroit, and New York.  Any of those except the Saints might qualify to come to Lambeau in a week.  So which team would we like to see?

Now I should detour long enough to say that, if the Packers were not in the playoffs, I would be pulling for the Falcons most of all and the Lions least of all from among the other NFC teams.  And, indeed, I will cheer for the Falcons when they go into New York tomorrow.  But, for today, I’m going to be a Lions fan. 

I think that the Saints are a frightening potential opponent for Green Bay in the NFC Championship game.  They have almost as much firepower on offense as we do, and their defense is arguably better than ours this year.  And so I’ll be rooting against them this weekend.  Again, if the Packers weren’t in it, then I’d want to see the Lions humiliated by New Orleans tonight.  But my self-interest as a Green Bay guy makes me a temporary Detroit fan. 

Meanwhile, over on the AFC side, the Texans host the Bengals today, while the Steelers visit the Broncos tomorrow. 

Personally, I would not be sorry to see either Houston or Cincinnati emerge as the AFC Champion.  I’ll be rooting for the Texans today, but it’s not a big deal to me either way.

The Sunday game, on the other hand, is a game about which I am likely to feel some passion.  As a long-time resident of Cleveland, I have football reasons to hate both the Steelers and the Broncos.  And yet my dislike for Denver has softened over the years, while my contempt for the Steelers remains inexplicably intense.  And so, against all odds, I’ll be cheering for the unlikely Broncos to upset the hobbled Steelers on Sunday afternoon. 

Falcons, Lions, Texans, and Broncos: that’s my slate this weekend. Two NFC road teams and two AFC home teams. 

If the Lions win tonight, we’ll know right away that they’ll be coming back to Green Bay next Sunday, and the Packers can start preparing for a familiar foe.  If the Saints win tonight, however, then we’ll wait to see whether the Falcons or Giants will visit the Frozen Tundra on the 15th. 

And so, for this one weekend at least, in the ongoing battle between man and beast, I am on the side of the animal kingdom.  Go, Lions!  Go, Falcons!

Friday, January 6, 2012

Grand Finale

The NFL is already the best game in town.  In a thousand ways, football is a superior sport, and pro football is an especially superior product.  Clearly it is America’s game in every respect. And the final chapter of the NFL’s 2011 season was a microcosm of all that is great about the league and the game.  What a weekend!

Three teams were playing under interim head coaches on Sunday -- Jacksonville, Miami, and Kansas City -- and all three of them won.  Moreover, two of those unlikely winners beat teams that were playing for their playoff lives.

The Patriots spotted the Bills what seemed like an insurmountable lead, only to come roaring back and prove that for them it was very surmountable, indeed. 

The Jets completely choked away their playoff opportunity, losing by 2 in Miami.  Do you remember Richard Nixon’s infamous line:  “I am not a crook”?  Now we can add to it Rex Ryan’s postgame insistence: “I am not a loser.”

And it was a rough day for the Ryan boys all the way around.  Rob gets a ton of attention -- more than Jason Garrett, the TV and radio talk guys always say -- yet his reputation is greater than his accomplishments.  The Cowboys went down in flames, while the Giants managed to get the job done in the end one more time.  Is there any other coach who moves so frequently within in a single season from hot-seat to hero as Tom Coughlin?

The lackluster Bucs practically hand-delivered Raheem Morris’ pink slip.  The Falcons and Saints both demonstrated tremendous firepower.  And the Colts’ locked up the first pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, guaranteeing that the Manning-vs.-Luck debate will dominate the conversation throughout the month of March. 

And then there was the Lions’ visit to Green Bay. 

The Packers had nothing to play for, which was evidenced by McCarthy’s choice to hold back several key starters, including especially Aaron Rodgers.  And, in the early going, the Packers looked like a team with nothing to play for: boy, what an ugly start! 

Since perfection was no longer a possibility, I wouldn’t have minded a loss.  But a humiliation, an embarrassment -- that would have been bad news going into the playoffs.  And that is what it looked like we were giving birth to throughout the early minutes of the first quarter.

In the end, though, Matt Flynn’s epic performance made everyone forget about the ugliness and failure with which the game began. 

Of course, a 6-TD, 400+ yard day should have more of a sense of triumph.  The way last Sunday’s game unfolded, though, it was no so much triumph as relief.  The Lions played us nearly point-for-point.  And while Bobby Brady Stafford didn’t put up 6 TD passes, he threw for over 500 yards.  Defensively, the game was a real debacle.

But then, as I’ve watched a few college bowl games this past week, it seems that defense is going out of style all around.  Perhaps next Monday’s BCS National Championship game will be a refreshing change of pace, in this regard.  Perhaps LSU or Alabama will prove that defense still wins championships.

Let’s hope that’s not necessarily true in the NFL, though.  In an almost unbelievable bit of who’d-have-guessed symmetry, the top seed in the NFC (Green Bay) and the top seed in the AFC (New England) are, statistically, the worst and next-to-worst defenses in the NFL.  Crazy stuff.  Will explosive offense continue to compensate for pathetic defense all the way to the Super Bowl…? 

Well, more about that as we look ahead at the playoff match-ups in the next post.

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Playoff Preferences

Well, we have come to that annual moment when the 32 NFL teams have been officially whittled down to 12.  And my custom at this time each year is to put those 12 teams in order of preference.

Of course, there are two different kinds of preference.  There is the love-hate variety and there is the strategic variety.  On the love-hate scale, for example, I would prefer to see the Saints win the Super Bowl than the 49ers.  Strategically, though, I will be rooting against the Saints if they face the 49ers in the Divisional round, for I’d rather see the latter come to Lambeau for the NFC Championship game.

What follows is my love-hate scale.  (We will consider strategic rooting on a case-by-case basis as the playoffs unfold.)  These three lists reflect the teams I would most love (or, as you move toward the bottom, most hate) to see win Super Bowl XLVI.

First, as I consider the 6 AFC playoff teams, my preference would be to see the Texans win it all.  At the other end of the scale, it would be most noxious to me to see the Steelers come back after last year’s loss and reclaim the Lombardi Trophy.

AFC

  1. Houston Texans
  2. Denver Broncos
  3. Cincinnati Bengals
  4. Baltimore Ravens
  5. New England Patriots
  6. Pittsburgh Steelers

Meanwhile, on the NFC side, naturally the Packers are my first choice.  There is no close second.  At the other end of the spectrum are the Detroit Lions.  On paper, I suppose I should be able to root for a team that has lived with defeat for so long.  But in reality, this is a really unlikeable team -- I just cannot cheer for them. 

NFC

  1. Green Bay Packers
  2. Atlanta Falcons
  3. New York Giants
  4. New Orleans Saints
  5. San Francisco 49ers
  6. Detroit Lions

Finally, when I blend the AFC and NFC lists, this is how my preferences sort out. 

NFL

  1. Green Bay Packers
  2. Houston Texans
  3. Atlanta Falcons
  4. Denver Broncos
  5. Cincinnati Bengals
  6. New York Giants
  7. New Orleans Saints
  8. Baltimore Ravens
  9. New England Patriots
  10. San Francisco 49ers
  11. Detroit Lions
  12. Pittsburgh Steelers

If the Super Bowl played in Indianapolis come February matches the Lions against the Steelers, I might not even watch it.

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