Week Sixteen -- A Look Ahead

Week 16 begins on Christmas night -- an awful thing to do, it seems to me, to NFL players and their families. The Chargers are in Tennessee to take on the surging Titans. If Tennessee manages to start the season at 0-6 and still make the playoffs, it may be more remarkable than the Colts going 16-0. In any case, they have to win this game against a very tough, very hot AFC foe to stay in the hunt.

The AFC is such a jumbled scene right now -- not nearly so straightforward as the NFC picture -- and so all sorts of games are important in that Conference this weekend... Texans at Dolphins, Broncos at Eagles (which, of course, is also important to the NFC picture), Jets at Colts, and Ravens at Steelers.

The latter game is one of most highly anticipated, not only because of the playoff quality, but also because of the bad blood between these two teams. It should be a bruising physical battle. What's the word commentators like to use so much? "Chippy"? Expect to see a lot of "chippy" behavior on the field in Pittsburgh.

The Jets-Colts contest also has its drama. It's must-win for the Jets, while it is completely inconsequential for the Colts... except for the perfect record that is at stake!

The Raiders' trip to Cleveland doesn't matter for the AFC playoff picture, but both teams have shown signs of late-season improvement. The Browns will be looking for their third consecutive win, and one has to think that Mangini is coaching for his job with Mike Holmgren looking over his shoulder as the incoming President.

Meanwhile, on the NFC side of the ledger...

The situation, as we have detailed elsewhere, comes down to the Eagles, Cowboys, Giants, and Packers competing for three available playoff spaces: the NFC East title and two wild card spots.

Generally speaking, the Packers are in good shape, though they haven't clinched yet. We're targeting the Cowboys and Giants as our primary competition. The Panthers have the capacity to go into New York and upset the Giants, but I'm not betting on it. I think there's a stronger chance that the Redskins might upset the Cowboys in Washington -- though they'll have to play considerably better than they did against the Giants last week. They have the potential for a shut-down defense, and Dallas may have lost some focus after their surprising upset of the Saints in New Orleans. It's the Sunday Night game, which I believe is the best televised football product in the league these days. I look forward to watching it and rooting for Washington.

We could also welcome an Eagles loss. I don't think the Broncos will manage to beat them in Philly, but Denver badly needs the game. The Broncos are the opposite story from the Titans -- they started 6-0, but run the risk now of missing the playoffs altogether.

The Monday Night game is also an interesting one for us -- an NFC North grudge-match between the Bears and Vikings. Minnesota needs to regain its equilibrium, while everyone in Chicago -- from the front office on down -- is playing for his job. The forecast for Chicago on Monday Night sports temps in the low 20s. Not terrible weather, but a very different environment from the climate-controlled Metrodome. And Packer fans know well that Favre's cold-weather performance declined toward the end of his Green Bay tenure. The Vikings need to be playing their best ball now -- not in September and October.

Finally, the Seahawks are coming back to Lambeau. It's an easy game to look past, for every indicator says we should win this one. Still, they'll have 11 professional athletes on the field at any given moment, too, so we mustn't count this W before it is hatched.

Bottom line... I expect the Packers to win, but I also expect all three of our chief NFC opponents to win, forcing the issue to Week 17.