Week 17 -- A Look Ahead

As of this moment on Saturday evening, I haven’t heard definitively whether or not Aaron Rodgers will be playing in the season finale against Detroit.  And as of this moment, I’m still not sure what I hope.

I’ll be taking my youngest daughter to the game, and she is a huge Aaron Rodgers fan.  It’s her first pro football game, and for her sake I’d like him to play.  On the other hand, as a Packers fan in general, I think I’d like to see him far, far away from the action (i.e., the danger).  Still, I suspect that he wants to play, and I don’t think McCarthy is the kind of guy who coaches scared.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rodgers play for a half or so, therefore.

It should be a Sunday of good viewing with a number of significant games.  Much is still up for grabs, including a couple of divisions, several playoff spots, a number of seeds -- plus the number one pick in the 2012 NFL Draft!

For myself, I am rooting in these ways tomorrow…

First, I want the Packers to win.  I don’t want them to lose their edge.  I don’t want them to lose at Lambeau.  I don’t want them to enter the playoffs as losers.  And I want them to end this year’s campaign tied for the second-best record ever: namely, 18-1.  (Only ours will be a preferable 18-1 to the 2007 Patriots’.)

Second, I want the 49ers to win -- a pretty good likelihood against the 2-13 Rams.  I much prefer the prospect of San Francisco keeping the #2 seed in the NFC than the Saints earning that advantage on the final week of the season.

Over in the AFC, I’m rooting for the Broncos, for I rather enjoy the Tim Tebow story and all the debate that accompanies it.  I’m rooting against the Jets, however, for I do not enjoy their stories, coach, and players.  And I’m rooting against the Steelers raising their seeding at all, which at a practical level means that I’m cheering for the Ravens on Sunday.  (That, incidentally, should be a great game, as the Bengals host Baltimore in a win-and-they’re-in game.)

Finally, I want the Cowboys to beat the Giants in New York.  What a great Sunday Night game for the regular season finale!  If we have to face one of those two NFC East teams in the postseason, I would prefer to welcome the Cowboys into Lambeau than the Giants.   

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,NFL playoffs,Aaron Rodgers,Mike McCarthy,San Francisco 49ers,New Orleans Saints,Tim Tebow

Just Like Mama Used to Make

After the debacle in Kansas City on December 18th, there was a good deal of talk about “the recipe.”  Romeo Crennel & Co. had discovered -- indeed, revealed -- the recipe for beating the previously invincible Green Bay Packers.  That spelled trouble for the defending champs.  In a copycat league, every subsequent opponent would do to Green Bay what the Chiefs had done.

And for a little while there in the first half, that all seemed quite plausible.  While the Packers had outscored the Bears, Chicago had admittedly outplayed Green Bay.  The announcers were quite pointed about that fact, noting the discrepancy in yardage, first downs, time of possession, and such. 

Ah, but then Rodgers and the offense relocated the gas pedal and… boom!  Just like that, it was no contest.  Rodgers finished the day with a 72% completion rate, no INTs, and 5 touchdown passes.  It was a thing of beauty, clinching home field advantage, eliminating the Bears, and reasserting our superiority. 

And with Rodgers having that kind of productive day, the offensive rhythm, the defense picking off two passes -- now that was a familiar recipe. 

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Aaron Rodgers,Chicago Bears,Kansas City Chiefs,Romeo Crennel,NFL playoffs

Week 16 -- A Look Ahead

In Week 15, the 13-0 team lost and the 0-13 team won.  There was a certain symmetry in that, I suppose, as the NFL returned from its two extremes to a greater normalcy.  Let’s hope that the symmetry ends there, however, for the 1-13 Colts have already won in Week 16.

It’s an unusual football weekend, with a full slate of games being played on Christmas Eve day.  Then, tomorrow, the Packers host the Bears on Christmas night -- how obnoxious would that be if you were a Bear? -- followed by a more normal feeling Monday Night Football game on the 26th.

With just two weeks to go, no one has everything locked up yet, and so there is a lot of meaningful football to be played.  Lots of fascinating jockeying for position, including a couple of entire divisions that are still wide open (most notably the NFC East and the AFC West).  Great stuff!

As a Packer fan, I suppose the bottom line is pretty simple.  We want to lock up home field advantage through the playoffs.  That simply requires one Packer win in the next two games or one 49er loss in the next two games.   

The only other real issue for us is the “down the road” question: namely, what other teams would we prefer to face or not to face in the postseason?

For example, conventional wisdom was that we were rooting for the Steelers to win in San Francisco last week so that Green Bay would get that #1 seed.  Not me.  I’m pretty confident we’re going to get that seed anyway, and so I was taking the longer view: namely, I would rather have the 49ers get the #2 seed than the Saints.  Accordingly, I’m rooting for (gulp) San Francisco these next two weeks, while pulling against New Orleans.  Why?  Because the Saints scare me.  (And they annoy me a little, too.)

Elsewhere…. It’s possible that the Lions could miss the playoffs.  Does that sound appealing?  They’ve got two very tough games remaining: against the viable and recently-hot Chargers this weekend, followed by the much-ballyhooed visit to Lambeau in Week 17.  Shall I root against them?  I’d like to.  But if they do lose today, they’ll really be necessarily playing to win when they face us next week.  Not sure I’m liking that prospect.

How about the NFC East?  Who do you want to have emerge from that division?  Personally, I’m pulling for the Cowboys.  The Giants have really been struggling, but still they scare me.  And the prospect of the Eagles making it into this year’s playoffs is absolutely intolerable.  Go, Cowboys!

Meanwhile, if the Bears played the Packers today, they’d still have some modicum of playoff hope for which to play.  On the other hand, if a bunch of their closest competitors in the wild card race win today, they’ll have no motivation left but hate when they take to the Frozen Tundra on Christmas night.  Accordingly, I may be rooting for the Lions today -- as well as the Giants, Cowboys, Seahawks, and Cardinals. 

And no matter what happens on Saturday and Sunday, I am definitely a Falcon fan on Monday.

A lot of hype surrounding that game.  It’s a good prime time match-up.  And even more talk surrounding the Cowboys-Eagles, 49ers-Seahawks, and Giants-Jets.  All of those games are really compelling Week 16 contests.  Should be a great football weekend!

Finally, in the most important game, FOX Sports reports that the Bears may be without Devin Hester and Marion Barber.  Wow!  And without Cutler and Forte already, and with a QB who hasn’t thrown an NFL pass since half-past forever, I’m really liking Green Bay’s chances of a big rebound game. 

On the other hand, if the Seahawks beat San Francisco on Saturday, Green Bay will technically have nothing to play for on Sunday.  Except winning.  No more perfection to be achieved… what would you do?

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Chicago Bears,NFL playoffs,Dallas Cowboys,Philadelphia Eagles,New York Giants,Detroit Lions,New Orleans Saints,San Francisco 49ers

Polling the Jury

When the Packers took the field in Week One, the conventional wisdom was that they were the #1 team in the league.  They were, after all, the defending Super Bowl Champions, and they were arguably stronger coming into 2011 than they were when they ended 2010.

For the next 13 games, they won and won and won.  And for as long as they kept winning, their status as the best team in the league remained a given -- an unquestioned assumption.

But now they have lost.  So what now?  Do people still assume that we’re the best?  Or are there too many questions all of a sudden?

Joe Theisman doesn’t think we’re the best anymore.  In fact, he ranks us sixth -- behind the Saints, Patriots, 49ers, Ravens, and Steelers. 

I have read Theisman’s piece, and I think his analysis is sound.  His logic and his conclusions, however, are not.  Among other things, did he see how the Ravens and Steelers looked this past weekend?  I mean if you’re going to base your rankings so heavily on the most recent performance and not as much the whole body of work, how do the Ravens and Steelers rank ahead of us?

As it happens, Theisman stands alone at NFL.com in his assessment. The rest of the analysts there still rank the Packers first in the league.  The folks at ESPN.com still believe we’re #1, as well, and they were unanimous about it.

Meanwhile, after the Chiefs upset Green Bay last Sunday, the talk is predictably out there now about the “blueprint” for beating the Packers.  Bucky Brooks has offered the best analysis that I’ve seen.  That said, Aaron Rodgers offered a different -- and interesting -- take on the whole issue.

Don Banks at SI.com still thinks the Pack is #1, and he is also rather dismissive of the “blueprint” or “recipe” talk:

The Packers offensive line was definitely exposed in Kansas City and its health issues represent a real concern as the playoffs loom. But I always find it amusing how fast everyone wants to claim a "blueprint" has been established after a team's first loss of the season. A relentless pass rush and good coverage in the secondary has always been the "blueprint" for beating an opponent with an elite passing game, and it probably always will. The Chiefs brought both of those to bear on Green Bay last week, but that doesn't necessarily mean everyone else is capable of creating the same dynamic against the Packers.

Finally, NFL.com reports that the Packers hold a different #1 ranking in the NFL… It’s a great read.  America’s Team, Baby!

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Kansas City Chiefs,Joe Theisman,Bucky Brooks,Don Banks,NFL rankings,Aaron Rodgers,Ameria's Team

An Open Letter

Dear Coach Crennel:

I am a diehard Green Bay Packers fan.  Have been for years!  And as such, I am in considerable sports-fan pain today thanks to you and your team.

And I mean that sincerely: thanks to you and your team.  Many thanks!

I recognize that, in more serious issues of life than sports, pain is an unwelcome but important gift.  If we didn’t feel any pain, we wouldn’t recognize certain problems in our bodies, and we wouldn’t get them diagnosed and treated. 

So I recognize the usefulness of pain, and I can see great usefulness in the pain you inflicted on my team this past Sunday.  Now we are forced to reckon with the fact that something is wrong.

Up until Sunday, you see, we had had hints that something was wrong, but we didn’t really have reason to believe it.  For as long as we were winning, we could always say that the bend-but-don’t-break defense was doing just enough, that a running game wasn’t important when we had so many weapons in the passing attack, that no one could match up with our receivers, that Rodgers could always burn the blitz, etc.  For as long as we were winning -- and winning, and winning, and winning -- it was hard to say with a straight face that we feared something was wrong.

But now we know.  Thanks to you!

And while the pain you caused us did cost us a shot at history, it would have been much costlier had it come at someone else’s hands.  How intolerable would it have been if either the Bears or Lions had ruined our perfection?  But we bear no malice toward you, toward Kansas City, toward the Chiefs, or toward their fans. 

And how much worse, indeed, if no one had caused us this pain until the playoffs?!  That would have been bitter, indeed, to be perfect in the regular season and then humiliated in the postseason. 

So I write to thank you.  I am hopeful that we will emerge from the 2011 campaign with a record of 18-1 thanks to the help you provided… but the kind of 18-1 that will make the Patriots envious.

Technorati Tags: Romeo Crennel,Kansas City Chiefs,Green Bay Packers,Aaron Rodgers,NFL playoffs

Oh, the Pain

I’ve never been drunk, but I think I am experiencing my first hangover.

We have been so spoiled for the past twelve months.  We have played brilliantly and blown teams off the field.  And we have also played poorly from time to time, yet still managed enough to win. 

Not this time.  One of the halftime guys said that Packers were sleep-walking.  And, it seems, they never quite woke up.  Perhaps they’ll awaken in the locker room or on the flight home, and they’ll discover that this nightmare is actually reality.

I have heard Aaron Rodgers say a couple of times in interviews this season that no one has come up with the recipe for beating this team.  Well, the Chiefs discovered the recipe, and there are no secret recipes in the NFL.  It’s all on film for every other team to see.  Not that every team will be able to pull it off, of course, but it’s not like Kansas City is the most capable team we’ll face between now and February.  Assuming we get to February.

Eight teams have beaten the Chiefs this year.  They are not one of the league’s juggernauts.  Yet we just couldn’t solve them.

Ironically, I think if we had been up against one of the NFL’s better teams today, we would have won.  But we looked like a team that just kept waiting to turn it on, and we never quite managed to do it.

We all know how long it has been since the Packers last lost, but how long has it been since the defense hasn’t gotten a turnover?  How long since Rodgers has thrown only one TD pass?  How long since the offense has scored fewer than 15 points?  This was wire-to-wire ugly.  It doesn’t have any impact, of course, on our ultimate goal -- i.e., a second consecutive Super Bowl victory -- but it was so easy (and intoxicating!) to get caught up in the 19-0 talk.  Now that’s gone.  We laid an egg.  A big, ugly, smelly egg. 

So, time to sober up.  Time to take a cold, hard look at a defense that gave up 6.3 yards per play to a team that managed just 4 total yards in the first half last week.  Take to slap some glue on Finley’s hands.  And time to consider what seems to be inadequate depth along the offensive line. 

I’m confident that we’ll manage to win the #1 seed and home field advantage through the playoffs.  Beyond that, though, the rest of my confidence has been shaken by a really disappointing performance. 

Oh, the pain!

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Aaron Rodgers,Kansas City Chiefs

Week Fifteen -- A Look Ahead

It’s the most wonderful time of the year! 

That’s mostly because of Christmas, of course, but it’s also a very exciting time to be a football fan.  And especially a Green Bay Packer fan!

Only one of this weekend’s 16 NFL games matches two teams already eliminated from playoff contention (Dolphins at Bills), which means that every other game has meaning and impact.  Great stuff.  And some of those contests are especially intriguing.

ESPN.com offers a very helpful at-a-glance summary of where we’re at right now in terms of playoff seedings.  Meanwhile, SI.com offers a prose summary of what can be clinched during this weekend’s games.

The Houston Texans, one of the great stories of the 2011 season, are clinging to the top seed in the AFC.  New England, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh are all nipping at their heels, though, and with three weeks to go, no one can afford to stumble.  The Texans get the Panthers, Colts, and Titans, which is not a bad road to have to travel.  The Steelers are the most hobbled of the group these days, and they have to play the surprising 49ers on Monday Night Football.  The Ravens, meanwhile, have to travel to San Diego this week, while the Patriots journey into the jaws of Tebowmania. 

That particular AFC match-up is getting the lion’s share of the attention in Week 15.  Every week, folks want to know if Tebow and the Broncos are for real.  The Patriots seem like a worthy litmus test.

The Steeler-49er game, meanwhile, should be a beauty.  Both teams are in tight playoff races, so there will be tremendous urgency on both sides.  San Francisco’s upset at the hands of the Cardinals last week puts them at risk of losing the second seed to the Saints.  Personally, I think I’d rather keep the 49ers in that privileged spot. but since the Saints are certain to blow the Vikings out this Sunday, San Francisco will have to win a tough one against the Steelers on Monday.

No matter what happens with the 49ers and Saints, though, our Packers are almost certainly guaranteed the #1 seed in the NFC.  It’s just a formality now.  And so I find that my rooting turns to other concerns.  Specifically, the teams that stand in the way of 16-0.

I worry a little about the Chiefs.  Not a lot, honestly, but a little.  My concern is simply that they’re playing at home, they have this strange dynamic of an interim head coach, and this has to be their Super Bowl.  They played us close at Lambeau in the preseason.  They have a really solid defense.  And if they can stay close, I think they’ll be energized by the thrilling potential of being the team that knocks us off.  That worries me.  On the other hand, if we can get a good 21-point lead, they don’t have the kind of offense to come back on us, and I think they’ll lay down and die. 

Then we’ll have the Bears on Christmas and the Lions on New Year’s Day.  Fortunately, both games are in the Frozen Tundra, and the atmosphere there should be absolutely crazy as the team pursues perfection in front of the hometown fans. 

I think it would be nice if the Seahawks would beat Chicago this weekend.  That would take perhaps the last gasp of hope out of the Bears before they have to spend Christmas in Green Bay.  And for as excellent as their defense is, without Cutler and Forte on offense, I can’t quite picture them keeping up with us.

Which brings us to the Lions.  Detroit is currently the 6th seed in the NFC, with a trip to Oakland and a visit from the Chargers coming before their game in Green Bay on New Year’s Day.  It’s probably too much to hope that the Lions will be eliminated by the time we play them.  It would be nice, though, if their position was locked in and could not be improved by a win over the Packers.  I’ll be rooting for the Falcons, Giants, and Cowboys accordingly.  (Although, candidly, I’m pulling for the Cowboys to come out of the NFC East rather than the Giants.  I’d much rather have the all-thumbs team from Dallas come into Lambeau in January than the dangerous Giants.) 

Finally, check out this great piece by Don Banks about what the Packers are in the midst of accomplishing.  This is a season to savor, for sure.  A team for the ages.

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Kansas City Chiefs,New England Patriots,Denver Broncos,Tim Tebow,Detroit Lions,Chicago Bears,NFL playoffs,San Francisco 49ers,New Orleans Saints,Dallas Cowboys,New York Giants

Picture Perfect

I took my 11-year-old daughter to her first professional football game this past Sunday, and it was a picture perfect day. 

First, you could hardly ask for a balmier late afternoon or evening in December in Green Bay.  Plus, the crowd was full of good cheer.  And the Packers were almost unbelievably dominant.

I wasn’t sure how much my daughter would enjoy her first in-person game.  The sensations of a first trip to a pro stadium, of course, are the kind of thing you remember for the rest of your life.  But I feared that the relative hum-drum stuff of 3-yard-runs, incomplete passes, punts, and field-position battles might become tedious for a child who doesn’t fully grasp the game yet.

But she does understand touchdowns, and she got to see plenty of those!  One right after another, in fact.  It was such a dominating performance that the Packers seemed like they were simply in a different league -- as though it were pro players taking on a Division III team. 

The offense was a well-oiled machine. The defense was suffocating.  And the Raiders were pathetic.

A great deal of post-game attention was paid to the Greg Jennings injury.  Yet it turned out to be about as minor as possible, and the prevailing football attitude seems to be this: You play to win, and you can’t play scared.  I think, therefore, that it’s going to be full-speed-ahead toward 16-0 in Green Bay. 

Three games left: two are at home, and the remaining road game is against a team that managed 4 yards of offense in the first half this past Sunday.  The game in Kansas City looks like a win.  And while Chicago always plays us tough, the present Bear squad is a badly hobbled group.  I think the perfect season will come down to Week 17 and the Lions’ visit to Lambeau Field.

And I’ll be there -- with another one of my daughters for her first pro football game.

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Oakland Raiders,Kansas City Chiefs,Lambeau Field,Chicago Bears,Detroit Lions

Week Fourteen (and beyond): A Look Ahead

The NFL Network has claimed for itself another scintillating affair this Thursday Night as the woeful Browns head to Pittsburgh for a public beating.  Should be great TV for all Steeler fans. 

And the NFC North race won’t get any clearer, for the Ravens -- who are tied atop the division with Pittsburgh at 9-3 (though Baltimore holds the tie-breaker) -- get to host the winless Colts.  Indy’s only hope here is the occasion inconsistency that marked the Ravens earlier in the season.  Frankly, though, I expect both Baltimore and Pittsburgh to go into Week 15 knotted up at 10-3.

Meanwhile, at the other end of the weekend, ESPN doesn’t have anything much better than the NFL Network again.  Monday night Football this week pits the 2-10 Rams against the 5-7 Seahawks. Not sure how to make that one interesting.

And so, once again this week, it is NBC and the Sunday Night Football crew who get the good contest.  The 6-6 Giants are spiraling downward with four consecutive losses.  On the other hand, they looked awfully good against Green Bay, and so they head into Sunday Night with reason to feel good about themselves.  Their opponents -- and chief competition in the NFC East, the Dallas Cowboys -- do not have reason to feel good about themselves, however.  They mangled the end of last week’s disastrous loss to the Cardinals, and I have to think that there are some lingering issues there.  Does the coach trust his quarterback?  And, after last Sunday, will the team trust their coach?  A few years back (before he actually became a head coach, that is), Jason Garrett was the golden child.  Right now, he’s the kid in the corner with the dunce cap on.

The Giants and Cowboys play each other twice in these final five weeks, and so each team has its fate very much in its own hands.

Meanwhile, those same Cardinals who upset the Cowboys get to futz with the NFC playoff picture again this weekend when they host the 49ers.  San Francisco has locked up the NFC West, but their playoff seeding is still very much in question.  Can they catch up with the Packers from two games behind?  Probably not.  But the Saints, who are only one game behind the 49ers, can certainly catch San Francisco for that coveted #2 seed.  So both teams have to keep their pedal to the metal -- and no one has been doing that better lately than the Saints.

New Orleans heads to Tennessee this week to play a team that has really begun to pull itself together in recent weeks.  I wouldn’t give the Titans a chance if the game were being played in New Orleans.  And I don’t even give them much of a chance playing at home.  Still, the truth is that the Saints should face a somewhat tougher test this week than the 49ers.

Elsewhere, the Falcons have put themselves in an interesting position.  As we mentioned earlier, all the mid-level teams in the NFC lost last week, and several of the third-tier teams won, giving the latter an extra glimmer of hope.  So it is that the 4-8 Panthers actually have something besides pride to play for when they host the stumbling Falcons.  This could be an interesting battle: perhaps a contest between the past and the future of the NFC South.

Meanwhile, was it Bill Parcells who always said that you are what your record is?  I think that analysis requires more nuance, for one of this Sunday’s match-ups features the 4-8 Dolphins playing the 4-8 Eagles.  They have the same records, but they are not at all the same teams.  Miami has played hard and been competitive every week, including a significant upset or two.  The Eagles, on the other hand, have been the poster child for an underperforming and troubled unit.  I suspect Philly has more talent, but I expect Miami to win the game.

The Lions and Bears both lost last week, and so they remain tied at 7-5.  The wild card race is a pretty crowded field.  The Bears have been ruined by injuries to major players, while the Lions are practically in a free-fall.  Someone has to turn it around, and I’m guessing that (for one week, at least) it will be Detroit.  The Vikings come to town this Sunday, and I just don’t think they have enough going for them this season to get the job done.  The Bears, on the other hand, have to take what’s left of their team to Denver to face Tebow-mania.  I’m still not sure how good the Broncos are.  They were sure awful in Lambeau a number of weeks ago!  But they’re hot now, they’re tied for first in their division, and they’re hosting a team that managed only 3 points against the Chiefs last week. 

Finally, we come to the game of greatest significance to us -- the Oakland Raiders’ visit to Lambeau Field.  Green Bay allows 4 fewer points per game and scores 12 more points per game.  The Packers just won in New York while the Raiders just lost in Miami.  Green Bay has won 5 more games this season than Oakland, and they’re playing at home, while the Raiders are on-the-road for the second week in a road.  In short, all arrows point toward a Packer win. 

I have no doubt that if both teams played their best game, Green Bay would win.  And I think we’ve demonstrated that even when we do not play our best game, we still win.  And so, while I can’t predict whether we’ll play up to our potential this Sunday, I do fully expect us to win.  Lucky 13, baby!

TEAM	14	15	16	17	%
GB 12-0	OAK 7-5	KC 5-7	CHI 7-5	DET 7-5	.542
SF 10-2	ARI 5-7	PIT 9-3	SEA 5-7	STL 2-10	.437
DET 7-5	MIN 2-10	OAK 7-5	SD 5-7	GB 12-0	.542
CHI 7-5	DEN 7-5	SEA 5-7	GB 12-0	MIN 2-10	.542
NO 9-3	TEN 7-5	MIN 2-10	ATL 7-5	CAR 4-8	.417
ATL 7-5	CAR 4-8	JAX 3-9	NO 9-3	TB 4-8	.417
DAL 7-5	NYG 6-6	TB 4-8	PHI 4-8	NYG 6-6	.417
NYG 6-6	DAL 7-5	WASH 4-8	NYJ 7-5	DAL 7-5	.521

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Oakland Raiders,Denver Broncos,Chicago Bears,Tim Tebow,San Francisco 49ers,Arizona Cardinals,New York Giants,Dallas Cowboys,Atlanta Falcons,Carolina Panthers,Philadelphia Eagles,Miami Dolphins,New Orleans Saints,Tennessee Titans

The Rich Get Richer, and…

Let us divide the NFC into four tiers, according to record. 

The top tier features three teams: the undefeated Packers, the San Francisco 49ers, and the New Orleans Saints.

The second tier, in my judgment, includes those teams that have been the other frontrunners in the NFC playoff race:  the Cowboys and Giants in the East, the Lions and Bears in the North, and the Falcons in the South. 

Meanwhile, there are two bottom-feeders in the NFC: the St. Louis Rams and Minnesota Vikings, both limping along at 2-8.

But then there is that third tier group.  These are the teams that looked to be the 2011 also-rans: teams that don’t stink, but are wallowing below .500.  These are the Seahawks, Cardinals, Eagles, Panthers, Redskins, and Buccaneers.

Here is the fascinating thing about Week 13.  The top tier teams all won (as they should, of course).  But all five of those second tier teams lost!  That’s amazing.  Teams with so much on the line, so much to lose, and yet they all lost.  Not only did that coincidence of wins and losses put more distance between the top teams and their heel-nippers, it also allowed the third-tier teams to close the gap a bit.

The Seahawks, Cardinals, and Panthers all won in Week 13, and suddenly they have moved from “also ran” to “in the running.”  Consider the chart below, reflecting the number of wins for the NFC teams that haven’t yet clinched (Green Bay and San Francisco) but are in the hunt:

4	5	6	7	8	9
PHI	SEA	NYG	DALL		NO
CAR	ARI		CHI
WASH			ATL
TB			DET

The four teams at 7-5, along with the Giants at 6-6, have put themselves in an inexcusably vulnerable position.  And the Seahawks and Cardinals find themselves with a lot to play for this weekend -- a lot more than one would have expected back on Thanksgiving.

So whether the Packers can stay perfect is not the only storyline in the NFC during the fourth quarter of the season.  The battle to lose the East is compelling, as are Detroit’s free-fall and Atlanta’s disappointment.  And, amidst it all, there are those pesky Seahawks, who snuck into the second round of last year’s playoffs, and who may emerge to upset someone more worthy again this year.

Well beyond the scope of this chart, meanwhile, are our Packers.  More about their nail-biting victory in the next post.

Technorati Tags: Dallas Cowboys,Chicago Bears,Atlanta Falcons,Detroit Lions,New York Giants,Seattle Seahawks,Arizona Cardinals,Carolina Panthers

Week Thirteen (and beyond): A Look Ahead

Three primetime games are on tap for Week 13, but 13 turns out to be an unlucky number for two of those three networks.

On Thursday Night, the NFL Network will feature the 4-7 Eagles playing the 4-7 Seahawks.  I suppose it will be pitched as a high-intensity, must-win game for both teams.  In truth, it’s just a couple of also-rans who are competing for the title of “most disappointing team in 2011.”  The Seahawks, you recall, went to the second round of last year’s NFC playoffs, and the Eagles were being heralded as this year’s “dream team.”  Instead, the conversation will be all about the speculations surrounding Vince Young, Michael Vick, and Andy Reid.

On Monday Night, meanwhile, ESPN will boast the 4-7 Chargers visiting the 3-8 Jaguars.  San Diego is also in the running for the “most disappointing” award, while Jacksonville is now all about potential coaching candidates for 2012.  It’s the hot seat vs. the empty seat on Monday Night Football.  Woo-hoo!

By contrast, the Sunday Night game on NBC is arguably the best game of the week.  It’s the Lions in New Orleans -- two teams in the thick of the NFC playoff race; two teams who, in different ways, both need this win; and yet two teams that are in very different places.  After a super-hot start, the Lions have been spiraling downward, and now they’re without their best defensive player for two punitive weeks.  The Saints, meanwhile, are looking like a championship-quality team.  Detroit needs it more, but the Saints are at home and playing better. 

In a way, the Lions and Giants are in parallel positions.  Both are NFC playoff hopefuls, but both have been losing more than winning of late.  And now they swap opponents. 

Last week, the Lions were dominated by the high-power Packers, while the Giants had their doors blown off by the high-power Saints.  Now, this week, the Giants host the Packers while the Lions visit the Saints.  In a sense, neither team needs to do a ton of additional preparation this week: they’re just facing more of the same.  

Another parallel pair is the Chiefs and Bears.  Both have lost their starting QBs, both have suffered through abysmal performances by their back-ups, and both have defenses that still keep them in each game.  And now they play one another.  Should be fascinating, and it will probably come down to which QB throws fewer INTs.

Tim Tebow should be able to notch another win in Minnesota.  The Colts and Patriots is going to be a bitter reminder to Indy fans how far they have fallen.  And the Bengals and Steelers will be a huge AFC North battle with tremendous playoff implications.

Meanwhile, in the NFC playoff race, the Cowboys should take a step forward against the 3-7 Cardinals.  Likewise, the 49ers should return to the winner’s circle against the 2-8 Rams.  The Falcons, on the other hand, face a tougher (though hobbled) opponent in Houston. 

Finally, the Packers head to New York.  Naturally I’m a bit worried, for the Giants are notorious for ruining perfect seasons.  Also, they have the potential to be a great team, and Eli Manning is showing his excellence.  On the other hand, it’s short week vs. long week and it’s cold vs. hot.  Plus, the Giants will be without Osi Umenyiora.  And Aaron Rodgers is right: they haven’t found the recipe for beating this Packer team yet. 

I have reproduced below an updated chart reflecting the playoff picture for the NFC’s serious contestants.  And here is a helpful explanation of where everyone stands and what can happen this weekend.  

TEAM	13	14	15	16	17	%
GB 11-0	NYG 6-5	OAK 7-4	KC 4-7	CHI 7-4	DET 7-4	.564
SF 9-2	STL 2-9	ARI 4-7	PIT 8-3	SEA 4-7	STL 2-9	.364
DET 7-4	NO 8-3	MIN 2-9	OAK 7-4	SD 4-7	GB 11-0	.582
CHI 7-4	KC 4-7	DEN 6-5	SEA 4-7	GB 11-0	MIN 2-9	.491
NO 8-3	DET 7-4	TEN 6-5	MIN 2-9	ATL 7-4	CAR 3-8	.454
ATL 7-4	HOU 8-3	CAR 3-8	JAX 3-8	NO 8-3	TB 4-7	.472
DAL 7-4	ARI 4-7	NYG 6-5	TB 4-7	PHI 4-7	NYG 6-5	.436
NYG 6-5	GB 11-0	DAL 7-4	WASH 4-7	NYJ 6-5	DAL 7-4	.636

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