Week 4 Preview

One wonders how much bad taste one mouth can handle.

Clearly the Packers entered the 2012 season with a bad taste in their mouths because of the surprising way that 2011 ended.  After rocketing out to a 13-0 record and flirting with perfection, the wheels came off at the end, culminating with a home playoff loss to the 9-7 Giants. 

The bad taste got even worse with an opening day home loss to the San Francisco 49ers to begin the 2012 season.

And now, in the wake of the mind-boggling Monday Night game in Seattle, the Packers have to be nearly choking and gagging on the bad taste in their mouth. 

So what will Week 4 bring?

Well, at least it will bring a chance to get back to .500, which is more than can be said for the Steelers and Colts.  Both of those 1-2 teams have to live with their underachievement and disappointment for another week, for those are the two teams with the first (and unreasonably early) bye week. 

Elsewhere, all three undefeated teams stand a good chance of staying perfect this week.  They all match up against 1-2 opponents, and two of the three (the Falcons and Cardinals) are playing at home.  On the other hand, both of those birds are coming off such decisive wins against previously unbeaten teams that one can imagine something of a letdown – much like the 49ers had last week in Minnesota.

The Falcons’ match-up is perhaps the most interesting of the three, for Atlanta hosts the division-rival Panthers.  Carolina fans had high hopes after last season’s impressive Cam Newton debut.  But now they are 1-2 and coming off a real old-fashioned butt-kicking at the hands of the Giants.  Will the Panthers bounce back, or will they dissolve under the pressure?  My guess is the latter.

Speaking of the Giants…  They travel to Philly for a great NFC East match-up on Sunday Night Football (which, as I have mentioned before, I think is the best televised football out there).  Apart from their sleepwalking loss to Dallas in Week One, the Giants have been playing well.  But the Eagles, 2-1 record notwithstanding, have not.  I like New York in this one.

Another game of general (as opposed to personal) interest is the Patriots’ visit to Buffalo.  It is also a divisional game, and it has the added element of New England trailing the Bills by a game and needing to right their ship.  I imagine they will.  They may be 1-2, but there’s no shame in losing to the 3-0 Cardinals and the 3-1 Ravens.  

Closer to home, it should be a rough week for the rest of our own Division.  The Vikings and Lions play each other, and so we’re guaranteed that one of those rivals will lose.  And the Bears, meanwhile, play in Dallas on Monday Night, which looks like a Chicago loss to me.  If the Packers can win their game, therefore, I am content with where they’ll be situated going into October.

Of course, because of our two in-Conference losses in September, we’ll also need to keep one eye on the 49ers and Seahawks, much like we do on our Division rivals.  They’re both on the road this week, but I expect both to come away with wins (against the Titans and Jets, respectively). 

Finally, the big game is the New Orleans Saints visit to Lambeau on Sunday afternoon.  Call it the “We Hate Goodell Bowl,” as the two teams most adversely affected by the NFL commissioner face off in a rematch of last season’s Game One. 

That narrow Packer victory seems like a very long time ago, doesn’t it?  Folks were calling that game a preview of the NFC Championship Game.  Well, as it turned out, neither team made it that far.  And now the one is languishing at 0-3, on the verge of a lost season, while the other has already lost more games in one month than it did all of last year.  Pretty grim.

And it will be even more grim for one of these hopeful franchises by the time the sun sets this Sunday.  Either the Saints will be 0-4, and perhaps a full 4 games behind in their own division; or the Packers will be at 1-3, with all three losses coming in the Conference, two coming at home, and facing a rare stretch of three consecutive road games.  Someone is going to be in a bad, bad way by the end of this match-up.

Personally, I’m pretty confident that it will be the Saints.  For as maddening as Monday Night was, I came away pretty impressed by the Packers.  Our defense was outstanding, holding the Seahawks(official records aside) to a mere 7 points.  And our offense, while stymied throughout the first half, genuinely dominated the second half.  They made significant halftime adjustments, which I think is both impressive and encouraging.  To go back onto the field with exactly the same personnel, yet with such different results, is a great credit to the coaching staff and to the team’s mental toughness.

If we were playing in New Orleans, I’d be more concerned.  And if the replacement refs were still officiating, I’d be downright scared.  But as it is, I’m feeling very confident that Green Bay will exact their pound of flesh and move into October in a reasonably good position.

It’s All Over

No, it’s not the season that is all over.  Far from it.  As I began to indicate in my previous post, I continue to be rather optimistic about the Packers’ 2012 season.  Ah, but the controversial end to the Monday Night Football game is all over.  Everywhere you look, people are writing about it and talking about it.  While the replacement refs were already a hot topic in the sports world, what happened at the end of the Packers-Seahawks game raised the whole issue to a whole new level.

It was the perfect storm:  a nationally televised primetime game, a close game, a game-changing call, and a manifestly egregious error.  Remove any one of those elements, and the outcry would not be so great.

Imagine, for example, that this had happened during one of the early games on a Sunday afternoon.  Only a fraction of America’s football fans would have been watching.  And while it would have been widely reported, the level of “you’ve got to be kidding” outrage would not be the same.

Or imagine that it had been a blown call during the midst of the game.  (Wait, there were a few of those, too.)  It would be exasperating, but still the matter-of-fact nature of sports would conclude, “Well, the Packers still had 20 minutes (or whatever) of game left to make up for it and win.”

Or imagine that it had been a close call – like the famed “was Majkowski over the line when he threw the ball” question and the “immaculate reception,” which have been debated back and forth for years.  It would make for a fun water cooler conversation, but it wouldn’t prompt the visceral reaction (except among the offended fan base, of course). 

But this was so viewed, so pivotal, and so obvious.  It’s all over.  Sports Illustrated’s web site’s primary headline on Tuesday morning called it “Nightmare Scenario.”

ESPN.com also lead with the same story – indeed, the same photo.  Playing on the Tom Hanks movie title, they called the refs “Clueless in Seattle.”

Yahoo Sports was openly calling upon the commissioner to make things right. 

Fox Sports captured the same embarrassing moment and called it “Gross National Product.”

CBS Sports cleverly dubbed it “Officially a Mess.”

Even NFL.com, which tends to underplay league controversies, recognized the debatable nature of Monday Night’s ending.

And the headlines went beyond just the sports world.  More traditional news shows and outlets were also talking about it on Tuesday.  And Tuesday morning’s Drudge Report led with the mess.

As the day after unfolded, the furor did not die down.  See the variety of headlines that Drudge had culled concerning this debacle by Tuesday afternoon:

So what will become of all this? 

Well, evidently not an overruled result.  We’ll contemplate that failure of the commissioner’s office more later.  But it does seem clear that public pressure on the league has been pretty intense, and the locked out refs suddenly had a much stronger hand than they prior to this last weekend.  The deal will finally get done, and in the end it will have been the Green Bay Packers who were the heroes:  suffering personal loss for the greater good and the benefit of the whole. 

And whenever the real refs are introduced before the games – perhaps as early as this Sunday – I expect that they will enjoy an unprecedented standing ovation in stadiums all around the country.

Now if only they had some way to show their gratitude to the Packers who made it all possible… 

Where to Begin…

Optional Starting Place #1:  It may not be clear which was the best team on the field last night, but it’s very clear which one was the worst: the team wearing black and white.

Optional Starting Place #2:  The real officials should get to wear the black-and-white outfits.  But the replacement refs should be donned in shades of gray.

Optional Starting Place #3:  It appears that we need to add a fourth column to the standings.  After “won,” “lost,” and “tied,” we need a column for “hosed.”  The teams with the most wins in each division get the first four playoff spots in the NFC, and then the two teams with the most “hoseds” get the wild card berths. 

Optional Starting Place #4:  At halftime, I was thinking that I had never seen such a frustrating 30 minutes of football.  That is rivaled, though, by the most frustrating 7 minutes of football that I saw at the end of the game.  While the last-play call is rightly dominating the headlines, the reality is that the referees had already robbed us on the roughing call and the pass interference call on the penultimate Seattle drive that ended up pinning our offense too deep to maneuver. 

Optional Starting Place #5:  It’s not the end of the world.  It’s not the end of the season.  It’s not even the end of September.  And when we finish the season at 14-2 and get to beat the Seahawks and 49ers in consecutive weeks of the NFC playoffs, it will all feel much better.

The Packers are 1-2.  We deserve to be 2-1, to be sure, but it’s certainly not too deep a hole from which to climb out.  I believe that Green Bay is still the class of the Division and that the cream will rise to the top in the end.  And so, while I am frustrated, I am not worried.  And I wouldn’t be surprised if an angry and refocused Packer team comes out and puts a beating on the Saints and Colts in the next two weeks, as a result. 

Closing the Books on Week 3

The most important game of the week remains to be played, of course.  But at this penultimate moment in Week 3, let’s take a moment to reflect back on what has happened to date.

At the end of Week 2, we noted that much of the league was tied with a .500.  Not anymore.

Duh.

We’ll have to wait until the conclusion of Week 4, of course, to see whether such parity continues to prevail.  As it is now, though, what we do observe is that there are almost no undefeated or winless teams left.  I can’t recall a time when there were so few teams with a “0” in their record after only three weeks of play. 

The only two winless teams that remain are the hapless Cleveland Browns and the tragic New Orleans Saints.  If we were told on September 1 that two teams would be winless three weeks in, how many of us would have chosen that particular pair?  Indeed, when in the past five years have those two teams been linked together in any sentence?   

The Browns, of course, are a case of the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object.  In this case, the unstoppable force is the Midas touch that Mike Holmgren has enjoyed and employed everyone he has been.  The immovable object, meanwhile, is the pattern of hopelessness and losing that has characterized the Browns for so many years.  Certainly that has been their hallmark ever since they were reinvented back in 1999.  Their fans felt like the ultimate losers when the late Art Modell unthinkably moved their beloved franchise out of town in 1995.  And even when they were winning, back in the days of Bernie Kosar and Marty Shottenheimer or Brian Sipes and the Kardiac Kids, they still always seemed to lose in the end.  They haven’t really been winners since the days of Paul Brown, which is almost unbelievable.  The last pictures of the Browns as winners are in black-and-white.  And thus far, that pattern of losing has been more than Midas Mike has been able to overcome.

The Saints, of course, are a different sort of a case.  Their franchise had more of the “loser” reputation than any team in the NFL for a lot of years.  And then they turned it around, won a Super Bowl, and presented themselves as one of the league’s perennial powerhouses. Then came the scandal. Then came the punishments.  And now has come the losing – including Sunday’s unthinkable collapse at home at the hands of the also winless Kansas City Chiefs.  Could the “Ain’ts” be back?

Meanwhile, just three undefeated teams remain after three weeks.  And here, too, we find an unlikely combination:  the Arizona Cardinals, the Atlanta Falcons, and the Houston Texans.  The Cardinals and Falcons were both playing undefeated teams this past Sunday, and they both won their contests decisively.  Make room on their bandwagons.  The Texans, too, proved themselves to be balanced, poised, and potent as they went into Denver and beat Peyton Manning and the Broncos.

The 49er bandwagon, meanwhile, is not nearly so crowded as it was one week ago.  After impressive wins against the Packers and Lions, San Francisco was universally heralded as the best team in the league. 

Whoops.

Well, now the best team in the league has the same record as the Minnesota Vikings.  And the Vikings hold the tie-breaker!  As a Packer fan, I’m not nearly so scared of the Vikings as I am of the 49ers, and so I was pleased by yesterday’s surprising result. 

As I was also pleased by the astonishing result of the Lions-Titans game.  That game was not broadcast here in the Green Bay market, but I was keeping an eye on that score on my computer.  When the Titans were ahead by two scores late in the 4th quarter, I was surprised but pleased, and I began to relax.  But then, oh no!  Another miracle Detroit comeback!  Two quick touchdowns in less than half a minute, including an improbable onside kick recovery and a successful Hail Mary by the back-up quarterback.  Yikes!  It looked like the Lions were simply a team of destiny. 

Now, though, they just look like idiots.  And their fans must be seething. 

The dark side of the football fan within me is delighted to see Detroit languishing at 1-2.  And I am so pleased by some of the surprising company they have at that record:  specifically, I’m thinking of the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots, two teams I deeply dislike.  Also at 1-2 on the young season are the two wundekind quarterbacks, RGIII and Andrew Luck.  With my distaste for hype, the dark side of me is pleased by their early struggles, as well.  And the fact that last year’s overhyped sensation, Cam Newton, is also at 1-2 does not make me shed any tears, either. 

It has been a fascinating season so far, and it was a truly notable and entertaining Week 3.  And the most important game of the week – at least for our purposes – remains to be seen. 

Week 3 Preview

As I noted in my previous post, there is a strange dearth this year of winless and undefeated teams.  Most of the league is at .500, including our own beloved Packers.  We will return to them at the very end.  In the meantime, though, I am fascinated especially this week by those match-ups of teams that are both 2-0 or both 0-2.

The 0-2 Chiefs visit the 0-2 Saints on Sunday.  Kansas City finished so strong last year, and I saw some preseason predictions that Romeo Crennel would win Coach of the Year in 2012.  But KC has underachieved so far this season.  As have the Saints, whose coach might also deserve consideration for Coach of the Year: he’s not coaching, and his absence seems to be proof of his value.  It’s hard to imagine either the Chiefs or Saints starting 0-3, but one of them has to.  Under ordinary circumstances, I’d guess it would be the Chiefs to be that team.  This year, however, I’m not so sure.

No other winless teams are squaring off this weekend, but several undefeated teams are.

The 2-0 Falcons visit the 2-0 Chargers.  Atlanta must be considered the favorite right now in their division, and perhaps the Chargers are also in theirs.  It should be a good game.  All else being equal, my instinct is to go with the home team when a West Coast trip is involved for someone from the east.

Meanwhile, in a battle of birds, the 2-0 Cardinals host the 2-0 Falcons.  Arizona stunned the NFL by beating the Patriots in Foxboro last Sunday.  The Eagles, meanwhile, are stunning the NFL by winning their games while playing so badly.  I know that Philly was supposed to be good this year -- and their record suggests they are -- but I’m not sold yet.  I’m leaning toward the Cardinals in this one, for sooner or later the Eagles’ turnovers have to catch up with them.

Within our own Division, the Packers are the only team that seems to be involved in a competitive game.  It’s hard to imagine that the 49ers won’t beat the tar out of the Vikings.  Conversely, I think the Bears will easily get the better of the Rams and the Lions will defeat the Titans.

The Packers, meanwhile, head out west to play the Seahawks on Monday Night Football.  Seattle is an enigma, and they have been for each of the past several seasons.  They can be world-beaters, or they can be mediocre.  It’s hard to know exactly what the Packers are going to get -– apart from a very noisy un-welcome, that is.

Seattle boasts a good-looking defense, and you’ve got to like the distinctive leadership, can-do attitude, and play-making ability of Russell Wilson.  Nevertheless, I believe that Green Bay is the superior team, top to bottom, and so I’m counting on a Packer victory.

In the end, I see the NFC North coming out of Week 3 looking like this:

1. Packers (2-1)
2. Lions (2-1)
3. Bears (2-1)
4. Vikings (1-2)

Back to Normal

Well, the sun is rising in the east again. 

Things are back to normal.  They are the way they should be.  Life makes sense again.  At least in the NFC North.

After that disturbing Week One aberration, the Packers are back atop their Division.  (Yes, I know we’re all 1-1, but I still regard us as in the lead by virtue of having the only in-the-division win.)  And so there is around Titletown a sense of regained equilibrium. 

The same cannot be said, I’m sure, for New Orleans.  Perhaps not Boston, either, during this particular week.  But especially New Orleans.

Roger Goodell better not be planning to retire to Louisiana, for I imagine he must be about the most hated man in the state these days.  His one-year suspension of Saints’ coach Sean Payton is surely responsible for one of the most explosive teams in the NFL sitting at 0-2 here in mid-September.

As a whole, meanwhile, the league is predominantly .500.  The entire AFC East and NFC North are both knotted up at 1-1.  In addition, 3 of 4 teams in the AFC North and the NFC East are also 1-1.  To be either winless or undefeated is already rare.  Remarkably so, considering that we’re only two weeks into the season. 

And those already thin ranks will be thinned considerably more in Week 3.  Two sets of undefeated teams (Falcons at Chargers, Eagles at Cardinals) face one another this week.  Also, something has to give when the 0-2 Chiefs visit the 0-2 Saints.  Both teams (and fan bases!) came into 2012 with pretty high hopes, but one of those teams is going to drop to 0-3.  Not many climb out of that hole. 

We’ll give more detailed thought to this coming weekend’s slate of games in a day or two.  For now, we just lean back and enjoy the fact that, for the moment in Green Bay, all’s right with the world.

Much Better

Well, I was wrong about the shootout, but I was right about the win.

Broadly speaking, I think of myself as more of a “thinker” than a “feeler.”  That said, I had a bad feeling going into the 49er game, but I was feeling pretty confident when I sat down to watch last night’s game against the Bears.  I never really doubted that we would win.  And now that it’s over and I’ve had some hours to digest it, I am very satisfied with what I saw.

We were admittedly spoiled by last year’s Packer offense.  It was prolific, efficient, machine-like, and nearly error-free.  None of those descriptions would quite apply to what we have witnessed in the first two games of 2012, however, which is slightly alarming. 

On the other hand, last night’s team arguably sported more of a championship recipe than last year’s team did, for last night we had it all.  There was a running game, there was great special teams play, and there was a ferocious defense.  Our offense did need to light it up with 40 points.  Rather, it was a complete team effort, and every part of the team could walk off the field with a sense that they had contributed to the victory.

That looked more like 2010 than 2011.

I have heard some naysayers today trying to minimize the Packers’ victory.  “Well, if Brandon Marshall had made that catch when he was streaking open into the end zone” or “it took a trick play to give Green Bay momentum” or “if the refs hadn’t succumbed to that debatable 12-men-on-the-field challenge” or “if Forte hadn’t gotten hurt…”  Blah, blah, blah. 

They are fair points, but there is no end to such “what if” scenarios.  What if Greg Jennings hadn’t been hurt?  What if our guys didn’t drop three passes that hit them on their fingertips?  What if Tramon Williams hadn’t fallen down on that would-be touchdown to Marshall? 

And so it goes.

The fact is that the Green Bay Packers looked very good and played very well last night.  And while Aaron Rodgers has not yet matched the MVP numbers and look of last year, we had over a hundred yards rushing, we racked up 7 sacks on the pouty one, we picked off 4 of his passes, we doubled Chicago’s total net yards on offense, and we effectively held both Brandon Marshall and Devin Hester in check.  

If we keep playing like that, we’ll win most of our games this year.  And if we add to that kind of effort just a little more of the offensive rhythm and explosiveness that we saw last year, I’m not sure who will beat us. 

The Bears, meanwhile, had their Week One bubble burst.  They felt so good after their acquisition of Marshall and their signing of Forte.  Then their manhandling of the Colts seemed to affirm all of the optimism.  Last night, though, the Ghost of Cutlers Past reappeared, while the splendor of Hester and Urlacher did not. 

Fortunately for Chicago, they play the Rams and Jaguars in two of their next three games.  They’ll probably have a winning record come mid-October, therefore, and they’ll be feeling good about themselves again. 

Until they have to play a really good team again.

Week 2 Preview

Week 1 was so altogether disappointing for Packer fans that it’s natural to feel impatient for Week 2.  So let’s move on!  

The Packers kick off all Week 2 action in the NFL as they host the rival Bears at Lambeau Field on Thursday night.  It’s a short week, to be sure, but it’s short for both teams.  And at least we get to stay at home. 

If a game can be a “must win” in only the second week of the season, I would say that that’s the case for Green Bay against Chicago.  To start the season 0-2, with both losses coming in-Conference, one of them in-the-Division, both against likely playoff contenders, and both of them home games – that is a devastating scenario.  I have no doubt that the Bears are conscious of their opportunity to come up here and bury us already in September.

Chicago looked good in their opening day win, though admittedly against one of the worst teams in the league from last year.  The Packers, meanwhile, did not look bad in their loss so much as they looked frustrated. 

I don’t expect the Bears defense to be as effective at stifling the Packer offense as San Francisco was.  I do worry, though, that Chicago may be at least as effective against our defense as the 49ers.  That suggests a shootout.  And it also suggests that the team that wins the turnover battle will likely win the game.  On both of those counts, I like our chances.  I expect to see Green Bay bounce back to .500 in Week 2. 

By the end of the week, such a 1-1 record might tie us up with the rest of our division.  Obviously beating the Bears would result in a tie with them (advantage: Packers).  The Lions, meanwhile, have to play the 49ers now, and they have to travel to the West Coast to do it.  I cannot imagine the Lions winning that game.  And, finally, the Vikings travel to Indy.  I can imagine that game going either way.  I like the Colts’ chances, and obviously I’ll be rooting for them.  Still, Minnesota gets the easiest draw of the week in the NFC North.  Wouldn’t it be ironic for the Vikings to be alone at the top of the Division?!

Elsewhere, the Saints-Panthers is an interesting match-up.  New Orleans was surprised and embarrassed at home, and now they need to head to Carolina to face a division rival.  Indeed, New Orleans’ profile for the first two weeks looks very much like ours, except that they’re must-win game two is on the road. 

Meanwhile, the Panthers are also going into that match-up with a must-win intensity, for they have already lost to one division opponent (Tampa Bay) in Week 1.

Which brings us to the Bucs’ trip to New York.  Here, again, we see parallels with our own circumstance.  The Giants, like the Packers and Saints, were favored at home last week, but lost.  Now they have to avoid the 0-2 hole.  New York has already lost a division game, and Tampa Bay represents a second in-Conference game for them.  They can’t afford the loss this Sunday, but they will have the time and preparation advantage over the Buccaneers.

Two 1-0 teams meet in Philly when the Ravens visit the Eagles.  While both teams won last week, Philadelphia looked awful, while the Ravens looked awesome.  Also, Philly lives with the cloud of insecurity in that both its quarterback and its coach seem to be on the hot seat. 

Another inter-Conference contest of Week 1 winners pits the Broncos against the Falcons.  Not the most important game of the week, but certainly among the most interesting. 

Another interesting game will be the Jets at Pittsburgh.  New York solved its preseason troubles and looked great in their Week 1 win.  Pittsburgh, meanwhile, returns home 0-1.  The statistics are familiar: it’s very rare for a team to make the playoffs after an 0-2 start.  So Pittsburgh will be playing with urgency, while the Jets may be feeling pretty loose.

Finally, RGIII should enjoy another week of hype and a 2-0 start as the Redskins visit the Rams. If you go into New Orleans and win, how do you not win in St. Louis, right?

Week One Takeaways

The first week of the 2012 NFL season is in the books now.  Half the teams are winless, and half the teams are undefeated.  The Packers find themselves among the winless, with a .500 record as our Week 2 aspiration.

So what do we think after Week One?

We think that the Packers have significant company.  While we lost at home – a painful business, to be sure – we lost to perhaps the best defense in the Conference, and to a team that went 13-3 last year and made it all the way to the NFC Championship Game.  The team that went on to win the Super Bowl, meanwhile, also lost at home, and theirs was a Division loss, and to an 8-8 team from 2011.  And the other major power from the NFC last year, the 13-3 New Orleans Saints, also lost at home in Week One, and theirs came at the hands of a rookie quarterback.  

We think it may be an all-Harbaugh Super Bowl.

We think Jim Harbaugh ought to consider getting a rabies shot.

We think that Peyton Manning outshone his successor.  For that matter, so did Robert Griffin, III.

Philly ought to worry about barely squeaking out a victory in Cleveland on a day when the Browns quarterback threw 4 interceptions.

The preseason worries about the Jets’ offense were overstated.

Meanwhile, regarding the Packers’ loss, we wonder a few things…

We wonder whether it was a close game or not.  Both teams scored three touchdowns.  The 49ers ended with only one more first down and only about 50 total net yards more than the Packers.  Green Bay’s defense earned one more sack than San Francisco, and had a much better third down efficiency on offense.  We equaled the 49ers in red zone efficiency and goal-to-go efficiency. And we had more return yardage.  And yet, for all of that, it didn’t feel like a close game.  Hopeful at points, yes, but not close.  What was it?

We wonder if the turnover statistic proved, again, to be the deciding factor.  The Packers turned it over once, and the 49ers did not turn it over at all.  Was that ultimately the key?  If Rodgers had not thrown that uncharacteristic interception – which was both a score-changer and a momentum-changer – would the Packers have come back to win?

We wonder which stat is more important.  That we went 15-1 last year, or that we have lost 3 of the last 5 games that we’ve played.  Including the last two at home.

Things to think about with Week Two right around the corner.

Post Mortem

Well, I’m glad I sold my tickets to that game.  Losing is painful enough in front of the TV.  It’s even worse, though, in person.

I’m no coroner, but I think I can hazard a few cause-of-death guesses in the wake of the Packers’ maddening Week One loss at home.

1) People talked before the game about the match-up between finesse and power.  I don’t think the issue with the Green Bay offense is finesse, however.  I think it’s rhythm.  Much of this game had a feel reminiscent of last year’s debacle in Kansas City.  The Packer offense just never really got into its groove.  No rhythm.  The defense deserves a lot of credit for that, to be sure, but I also think that a good, mentally tough team learns how to make their own rhythm.

I don’t think I’d say that the 49ers beat us because they are the better team.  Indeed, I actually like our chances in a playoff rematch with these guys.  I just think that, on this particular day, they managed to keep us out of our rhythm.  And since teams don’t manage to do that very often, I think we’ll win the next time around.

2) Psychologically, I think the current Green Bay team is designed to go downhill.  We get a lead, and then we pick up speed from there -- on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball.  While I don’t often miss Brett Favre, I do think that he brought to the team more of an “uphill” mentality: a pervading sense that we could always come back from behind.  This team, however, is meant to be ahead.  Witness the statistic that FOX shared at one point in the third quarter: that the Packers were behind at home for a total of fewer than 4 minutes during the entire 2011 season!

3) Dom Capers has a lot of work to do.  While the 2010 defense was heroic, winning game after game for the Packers, the 2011 squad was notorious.  By some standards, we were the lowest ranked defense in the entire league, which is quite an achievement for a 15-1 team.  This debut of the 2012 defense was not at all encouraging.  It looked more like the group from last year than the year before.  Perhaps even worse, for this group got gashed for a lot of rushing yards in addition to giving up a ton in the passing game. 

Those are the primary issues that occur to me.  Of course, there were other little things… #88 had several more drops.  Finley needs to make the move from “incredible potential” to “incredible performance” this year.  The Packer running game didn’t offer any real balance to the offense.  Rodgers didn’t consistently get the kind of protection that allowed him to be at his best.  There was the surprising interception that led immediately to a 49er touchdown.  And, of course, the officiating was pretty frustrating.  Not uneven; just frustrating.  And I imagine that it’s hard for players not to let it get into their heads that they can’t count on the officials to see and to call the right things. 

(But credit the 49ers in this regard: they managed to recover mentally from some early calls that went against them.) 

So is there any good news coming out of Sunday?  Yes, some.

Clay Matthews looked good, and it was great to see some of the old QB pressure.  Randall Cobb looked terrific.  We came out without any serious injuries.  We’ve immunized ourselves against that “perfect season” pressure.  And, best of all, we don’t have to live with this bitter taste in our mouths for long, for we get to turn right around and take out our frustrations on the visiting Bears on Thursday Night! 

Week 1 Preview

I know that I am a bit tardy with my Week 1 Preview inasmuch as the Cowboys have already won their surprising victory on the road against the defending champion Giants.  But with 15 other games still to play this weekend, let me make a few prevenient observations. 

First, the schedule-makers have it in for the Packers.  Has there been a tougher way to start the season?  We have four in-Conference games in September, including two divisions winners from last year, starting with two games in five days against good, physical clubs.  Then we head to the West Coast, only to return to play another one of the premier teams in the league.  September alone could bury us.

That said, the fact is that we are the team no one wants to see on their schedule, either. 

Meanwhile, the schedule makers have simultaneously made life as easy as possible for the rest of our Division in Week 1. The Bears get to host the worst team in the league from 2011.  It may be that the new-look, new-Luck Colts will be a force to reckon with in 2012, but it’s still a pretty nice draw for the Bears’ season opener.

The Lions, too, get a cakewalk at home as the Rams come to town.  Chalk up a “W” for Detroit, probably without breaking a sweat.

It’s hard to say what would be an easy game for the woeful Vikings.  They get to host the very mediocre Jaguars.  Jacksonville ended 2011 with a better record than the Vikings, as did most of the league.  Still, it’s plausible that all three of our Division opponents will begin with a win this week.

Elsewhere, there are some fascinating opening day match-ups around the league.  The Falcons’ visit to Kansas City pits two teams with reasonably high expectations for 2012.  The perennially strong Steelers head to the rare air of Denver to meet an old face in a new place.  How will Peyton Manning fare as a Bronco?  And after a whole year out of the game?  And then there is the Curiosity Bowl.  What will the Saints be like without Sean Peyton?  And what will the Redskins be like with RGIII?

Finally, the best match-up of the football weekend is happening right here in Lambeau Field.  It’s a classic battle, you know:  explosive offense against stingy defense.  My experience is that the defense usually wins that battle.  But this is, of course, an unusually potent offense, and it sports the best quarterback in the league.  If he stays upright and if Benson doesn’t fumble, I say the Packers come away with the win.  Along with everyone else in the NFC North, I’m afraid.

What the Polls Tell Us

The 2012 NFL season coincides with a political season, and I have often said that national politics is my second-favorite spectator sport.

Consider the similarities.  In both politics and football, there are two sides, and thus rooting.  There are ‘players’ of varying skills and abilities, specific contests along the way, and a ton of pundits who write and talk and analyze and debate.  And then, of course, there is the big win or loss at the end of the season.

Now in the case of politics, the “big game” comes in early November.  But between now and then, there is constant polling and ongoing analysis of who is “ahead” or “winning.” 

Of course, the polls are pretty unreliable predictors at this point.  The difference between Candidate A and Candidate B in early September may bear very little resemblance to the final results on Election Day.   Still, for those of us who follow this stuff, it’s fascinating to watch.

Likewise, for those of us who follow the NFL, the beginning-of-the-season predictions are also fascinating.  As with the political polls, the final results in February may look quite different from the experts’ analyses in September, but it’s all we’ve got until the games begin.

At ESPN, the Packers are the prevailing favorite.  A majority of their pickers expect Green Bay to win it all, and a pretty fair number also look for Aaron Rodgers to repeat as NFL MVP.  And of the 7 folks who don’t predict a Super Bowl win for the Packers, 4 of them still envision us winning the NFC.  Remarkably, none of the remaining 3 are picking our much-ballyhooed opponents from this Sunday. 

Interestingly, Peter King at SI.com doesn’t expect the Packers to win their own Division this year, yet he still sees us winning the Super Bowl in the end.  

Also at SI.com, Don Banks thinks the Packers are the cream of the NFL crop.  He predicts “another Super Bowl run in Titletown,” and puts us at the top of his “Power Rankings.”  (That, of course, is a spot we held every single week during the entire 2011 season, until the Giants beat us at Lambeau in the playoffs.)

Peter and Don are not in the majority over at Sports Illustrated, however.  Most of their experts do not expect the Packers to win it all this year.  And they do have a number of folks supporting the likelihood of the 49ers winning the NFC. 

Finally, over at NFL.com, a slight majority of the experts predict that the Packers will win the NFC, though not all of them see us prevailing in the Super Bowl. 

So, in the end, what do the polls tell us?  In the NFL, I’m afraid, they tell us even less than in politics.  For in the political realm, at least, the people being polled do represent the people who will determine the final outcome.  In the NFL, however, these experts have nothing to do with results.  And so we are left to watch and wonder our way through the regular season. 

And, as Packer fans know well, even the regular season is not the best predictor of who will win in the end.

Are You Ready for Some Football?!

It’s finally here.  After suffering through an interminably long NBA season and what has been (from my point of view, at least) a disappointing baseball season, the time has come for the NFL to kick off again.

Horse racing may be the sport of kings, but NFL football is the king of sports.  For excitement, for strategy, for athleticism, for variety, for sophistication, for fan passion, and for national attention, nothing else compares.  And it begins again tonight.

Yes, I know that it began some weeks ago with the preseason.  And in years past, I have paid more attention to the preseason.  But this year I found myself uncommonly impatient with the exhibition games.  And so I’m glad now for the real games to begin.

They begin tonight when the Cowboys visit the rival (and defending champion) New York Giants.  It will be interesting to see how the Democratic National Convention, and specifically former President Clinton, fares against the NFL in terms of national ratings.  I suspect the numbers will bear witness to my earlier assertion that nothing compares to the NFL.

\For the Packers, the regular season officially kicks off at 3:15 PM Green Bay time this Sunday afternoon, and it begins with one of the toughest games of the season.  Many are calling it a preview of the NFC Championship Game.  We shall see.  If so, this first game of the season will likely determine where that championship game gets played. 

From very early in the 2011 season, the question was whether the Packers could achieve perfection – an undefeated regular season, culminating with a Super Bowl win.  After going 15-1 with a disappointing first-round playoff loss, I think the new question is this: Were we as good as our record?

Green Bay’s passing attack was epic, to be sure.  But their defense was suspect, and in the end a team with better all-around balance took home the trophy that was meant to be ours.  Now, come Sunday afternoon, we’ll play another team that may also boast a better all-around balance.  I’m glad it’s a home game for us… but then that January game against the Giants was a home game, too.
Don’t get me wrong: I’m very excited and hopeful about the upcoming season.  I’m just really worried about the first game of the season. 

Win or lose, though, I am definitely ready for some football!