Playoff Possibilities

We're entering the 4th quarter of the 2009 NFL season. It's gone by too quickly! And with just 4 games left to go, the Packers are alive-and-well in the playoff chase.

Here is a link to SI's latest breakdown of the NFC and AFC races:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/dom_bonvissuto/12/09/week.14/index.html

Meanwhile, a little statistical data about our own particular situation.

Let us assume that 3 of the 4 NFC Divisions are settled matters. The Vikings will win the North, the Saints will win the South, and the Cardinals will win the West. (In the case of the latter two, not only do they enjoy substantial leads, but their remaining opponents also have a sub-.500 cumulative winning percentage.)

So we'll say that 3 of the 6 NFC playoff spots are taken. The Packers, then, are vying for the remaining 3 spots, and our chief competition comes from the Cowboys (8-4), Eagles (8-4), Giants (7-5), and Falcons (6-6). (It's still plausible that some 5-7 team will make a run and get in, but we won't worry about those guys unless the Packers lose this Sunday.)

The Falcons, who are already two games behind us, face an enormous obstacle this week as they host the 12-0 Saints. Plus, they're hobbled. If they can manage to get the upset win this week, however, then they're suddenly in very good shape, for their remaining opponents (Jets, Bills, and Bucs) have a combined winning percentage of .306!

Of the four other teams in the heat of battle, the Packers have the next easiest remaining schedule with opponents sporting an even .500 winning percentage.

The Giants -- currently one game behind us -- come in next with opponents' winning percentage at .542.

Next come the Eagles -- with whom we are tied, except that they own the tie-breaker -- whose opponents tally a .583 winning percentage.

And then we come to the Cowboys. If the season ended today, they would win the NFC East. On the other hand, if they were competing for the Wild Card rather than the Division, we would edge them out by virtue of the head-t0-head win. Meanwhile, Dallas has been notorious for its poor December performances (they haven't had a winning record in December since 1996!). And they have by far the most difficult remaining schedule of the NFC teams currently in the hunt -- Chargers (9-3), Saints (12-0), Redskins (3-9), and Eagles (8-4) for a .666 winning percentage.

And so the team that entered December at the top of the NFC East is widely expected to miss the playoffs when January rolls around. Remarkable.

And speaking of expectations... I came across a fascinating analysis of why Packer fans have reason for great expectations as we enter the 4th quarter of the season. Enjoy:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/kerry_byrne/12/10/packers/index.html?eref=sihp