All I Want For…

Well, Christmas is past, and so I am left to make my wish list for Week 17.  All I want for the NFC playoffs is…

Six NFC teams will make the postseason, and four of those have already punched their tickets: the Falcons, Packers, 49ers, and Seahawks.  Meanwhile, five teams remain in the hunt for the final two slots: the Redskins, Vikings, Bears, Cowboys, and Giants.

As I ponder all of the playoff scenarios, I begin by ranking those remaining teams in order of preference.  Not likability, or which teams I would more or less prefer to see raise the Lombardi Trophy at the end.  No, at this point my motivation is more fear than anything.  I will be rooting for the teams that I feel more confident about the Packers being able to beat.

Of that class of five, my highest confidence level is with the Bears.  I simply don’t think they’re that good, and I haven’t all year.  They haven’t beaten a good team yet, and we have handled them rather easily in both of our 2012 encounters.  I would rather see the Bears come into Lambeau in January than any of the other four.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, are a close second for me.  I think they have the potential to be the Keystone Kops, and I don’t think they would handle well Lambeau Field in the playoffs.

The other three teams, meanwhile, make me nervous.  Past performance tells me that, once the Giants make the playoffs, they are new men and nothing can stop them.  The Redskins with RGIII are such an unknown quantity that I think they have the potential to beat anybody.  And all season long, the Vikings have shown a remarkable ability to rise above expectations and upset a superior opponent. 

And so I am rooting for the Bears and Cowboys to make the cut this coming weekend.  And we can help with that process, for Chicago needs us to beat the Vikings in order to keep their own hopes alive.

Our game in Minnesota is Job One, of course.  If we go up there and beat the resurgent Vikings, we lock up the #2 seed in the NFC, we virtually knock Minnesota out of the playoffs, and we help to usher in the weaker Bears.  

Beyond that, I will be rooting for the Bears to beat the Lions (which is likely) and for the Cowboys to beat the Redskins.  The latter contest is so fascinating and so high-stakes that they have made it the Sunday Night game – the final game of the regular season! 

Packers win.  Bears win.  Cowboys win.  In these days right after Christmas, those are my two front teeth. 

To Tell the Truth

Do you remember the old television show called “To Tell The Truth”?  Evidently it has been on in various forms over many years.  My recollection of it, though, is the very old black-and-white version from my childhood.  Kitty Carlisle comes to mind. 

As I remember it, the premise of the game was to introduce to a panel of judges three individual who all claim to be the same person.  The judges are then permitted to ask the candidates questions until, at the end, each judge casts his vote to indicate which one he or she thinks is really the person that they all claim to be.  Then, at the end, the emcee famously says, “Will the real _______ please stand up!”  That is the moment of truth.  That is when the suspense ends, as the two pretenders stay seated, and the actual person is revealed. 

One of these days, “the real” best team in the NFL will need to stand up.  Each week for the past several weeks, we’ve thought we’ve known who it was.  And then another week passes and, ooops, we were wrong!

Going into Week 13, the Houston Texans boasted the best record in the league.  They were a gaudy 11-1, and folks generally assumed that they were the best.  By the end of Week 14, however, the New England Patriots were the consensus pick for the best team, having drubbed those Texans on Monday Night Football 42-14.  Ah, but in Week 15, the 49ers impressed the football world by going into New England and beating those Patriots 41-34.  But then, in Week 16, the Seahawks mauled those 49ers, 42-13.  

If the pattern persists, expect the 7-7-1 Rams to go into Seattle this Sunday and manhandle the Seahawks.

So who is the best? 

That’s one of the favorite debates right now on TV, on radio, and on the web.  The Packers can certainly make a case, having won 9 of their last 10 games, including this past Sunday’s dismantling of the Tennessee Titans.  And, for the moment, they are at least ranked second-best in the NFC playoff hunt, thanks to the aforementioned victory by the Seahawks over the 49ers. 

Of course, no one really gets to claim to be the best until they have the Lombardi Trophy in hand.  And any one of those teams that have performed so well in recent weeks is a legitimate candidate.  But, as we have also seen during these weeks of so much changing of the guard, on any given Sunday…

Week 16 Preview

Sometimes we use the words “ego” and “pride” interchangeably, and perhaps rightly so.  Yet there are moments when those two paths diverge, and I expect that the 2012 NFL season for the Detroit Lions is a good case in point.  I think that team has a lot of ego, but it doesn’t seem to have much pride.  They certainly didn’t put on much of a showing at home last night against Atlanta.  But then they haven’t put on much of a show all season.  I feel for their fans.

And speaking of fans, this is either the best or the worst time of the NFL year.  For the fans of the 19 teams that are either in-the-playoffs or in-the-hunt, these last two weeks are tremendously exciting.  For the fans of the other 13 teams, however – the ones that have already been eliminated from playoff contention – these weeks represent prolonged and painful disappointment. 

We are among the fans who have good reason to be excited.  Indeed, we are in one of the most favorable positions – for we don’t need to be nervous about missing the playoffs, on the one hand, but we can feel excited about improving our seeding, on the other.

There is more clarity on the AFC side this year.  Four of the six spots are already locked up (the Texans, Broncos, Patriots, and Ravens are all in).  Meanwhile, just four other teams are still vying for the remaining two slots – the Colts, Bengals, Steelers, and Dolphins.  And if the Colts and Bengals both win this week, they seal up those last two spots. 

The Colts play the Chiefs, so you’d think they can pretty well punch their tickets.  In one of the most fascinating games of the weekend, though, the Bengals go to visit the Steelers on Sunday.  It’s a divisional game, and it’s all on the line.  Great stuff!

Over in the NFC, the picture is more complex.  Just three teams are in – Atlanta, San Francisco, and Green Bay.  Meanwhile, an amazing eight other teams remain mathematically alive – the Redskins, Seahawks, Vikings, Bears, Cowboys, Giants, Rams, and Saints. 

Seattle has the easiest, most straightforward clinching scenario going into Week 16:  win and they’re in.  And that fact sets up one of the most intriguing games of the weekend, as the 49ers visit Seattle on Sunday Night Football.  The 49ers are clinging to the second seed by a half-game over the Packers.  The Seahawks, meanwhile, will be playing for not only a playoff berth but a shot at the NFC West title.  It shapes up to be a fantastic game.  And you and I are squarely in Seattle’s corner tonight!

The Vikings have the toughest road to the playoffs, with games against the Texans and Packers.  They have no way to clinch today, though it is possible that they could be eliminated today.  The Texans, meanwhile, are trying to stay ahead of the Broncos for the #1 seed in the AFC, and they’ll be playing at home.  But in addition to the playoff hunt, the Vikings’ remaining two games have this other motivating factor:  Adrian Peterson is chasing Eric Dickerson’s single season rushing record. 

The Bears have a much easier route to the playoffs, as their remaining schedule features the 5-9 Cardinals and the 4-10 Lions.  They’re both road games, but they’re both the kinds of teams that Chicago can beat. 

The Cowboys are also right there, but they have to play the Saints and the Redskins.  Tough stuff. 

And then there are the Giants.  They are currently the projected 9th seed, yet they come into this Sunday with two (long, complex) clinching scenarios.  They host the Eagles next week, which I think will be a “W” for them.  Accordingly, I am eager to see them lose today at Baltimore, for of all the remaining NFC teams in the hunt, New York is the one I am most anxious to see get knocked out.  They’re simply too good once they’re in the postseason. 

And so today, in addition to (or as part of) being a Packer fan, I am also a fan of the Seahawks, the Texans, the Ravens, and (as a matter of general principle) the Bengals. 

Finally, the Packers wrap up their home schedule this afternoon by hosting the Tennessee Titans.  The Titans haven’t been very good this year, and they have nothing to play for in the snow and the cold today.  I think that if the Packers can jump out on top early, Tennessee will fold.  They’ll just want the game to be over with so that they can get back to the warm buses and go home.  That’s what I’m rooting for – and, frankly, that’s what I’m expecting.  The real suspense at Lambeau today, in my judgment, will not be the outcome of the game, but the role and performance of Mason Crosby.  

Things I Don’t Understand

I suppose it is the very uncertainty of the game that makes it so ripe for betting beforehand and debating afterward.  It’s not clear-cut.  It’s not obvious.  It’s not predictable.  And, as a result, I find myself scratching my head about certain things that I just don’t understand.

I don’t understand how the 49ers can’t seem to manage to beat the Rams, but they can waltz into New England and manhandle the Patriots.  The Patriots who, by the way, were everyone’s “best team in the NFL” just a few days earlier.

I don’t understand why teams like the Lions, the Eagles, and the Chargers keep falling so far short of their talent year after year. 

I don’t understand why we can’t do to the Giants what Atlanta did.  The Falcons, whom we have bested rather convincingly in recent years, humiliated the New York Giants last weekend, and that in spite of the fact that the Giants had so much more to play for.  Yet the Packers can’t seem to get past the G-men.

I don’t understand how Paul Tagliabue and Roger Goodell can examine the same evidence and come to such different conclusions. 

I don’t understand why the Jets brought in Tim Tebow.

I don’t understand why they now think Michael Vick might be the answer.

And I don’t understand what happened to Mason Crosby.

Week 15 Preview

I haven’t seen any scenario in which a Packers’ loss today provides a way for them to clinch a playoff berth.  I have, however, seen a variety of complex formulae in which Green Bay could play Chicago to a tie and still wind up with a spot in the postseason.

But the simplest formula is this:  win and they’re in. 

As improbable as all of this may have seemed when the Packers were 2-3, or when the Bears were 7-1, Green Bay can clinch the NFC North with a win in Chicago today.  The 8-5 Bears, meanwhile, do not have the same capability.

I like Green Bay to get the job done.  As my earlier posts will attest, Chicago has not really impressed me all season.  Even when they were enjoying considerable media hype, I didn’t think they were for real.  And now their vaunted defense is old and injured, while the Packer offense has discovered a running game and has Greg Jennings back.  As Don Banks has put it, “Green Bay and Chicago are two elevators passing on the same shaft, headed for different floors. Not to say the Bears couldn't win this Sunday and make things interesting, but Chicago appears to have played its best ball of the season some time in October. Which is at least six weeks back. And that's not what you want.”

Meanwhile, speaking of Banks’ analysis of things, he makes a bold statement about the Packers’ place in the 2012 NFL pantheon:

By my clear-eyed assessment of the situation… only four teams escaped Week 14 looking built for the long haul that awaits in January and the first weekend of February: New England and Denver in the AFC, Green Bay and San Francisco in the NFC.

I guarantee the Super Bowl matchup comes out of that four-team pool, so write it down, chuck it in the vault, and seal it until the close of conference championship Sunday, when you are then free to remove it and reflect on my prescience. Or not. Either way, those are my new top four teams in this week's power rankings, and for good reason. They're potentially Super, and the other 28 teams are not.

Sounds good to me!

Meanwhile, the Packers go into the weekend with the #3 seed in the NFC, just a half-game behind San Francisco.  Those 49ers, meanwhile, head across the country to face the New England Patriots, coming off their recent domination of the not-ready-for-prime-time Texans.  This is a great Sunday Night Football match-up, and many will bill it as a Super Bowl preview.  For me, it will be a rare occasion to root for the Patriots.

While San Francisco has to take on New England, meanwhile, their division rival Seahawks will play the 5-8 Bills.  It looks to me like a Seattle win, which puts that much more pressure on the 49ers tonight.

Also of interest to us is the Giants’ visit to Atlanta.  New York needs the game more, and they do tend to rise to the occasion.  Also, I think the Falcons are not as good as their record.  Nonetheless, they’re playing at home, they need to bounce back from last week, and we would welcome a New York loss.   

The Steelers-Cowboys will be another fascinating game.  These two powerhouses of the 70s both find themselves scratching and clawing to make the playoffs this season.  At 7-6 each, neither one can afford a loss in Week 15.

And, in the AFC, the Broncos-Ravens game drips with playoff implications.

Of course, by this point in the year, you’re also bound to have some meaningless match-ups of also-rans….  The Lions-Cardinals, Jaguars-Dolphins, Chiefs-Raiders, and such.  Monuments to disappointing seasons, as those fans begin to look forward to the NFL Draft.

We, however, are living on the better side of the tracks.  It is December 16th, and it feels like there is still a ton of football left to be played.  Beginning with one of the best rivalries in football, where I expect us to get the best of the Bears down in Soldier Field. 

Week 14 Preview

It wasn’t always pretty, or even hopeful, but Week 13 couldn’t have worked out much better for the Packers than it did. 

First, we won our own game.  That is the essential business, and we managed to accomplish it in spite of Adrian Peterson’s ridiculous performance.  I hate to think what could have happened if Percy Harvin and a competent quarterback had also been on the field.  No matter, though.  We got the job done.  It is a win, and a Division win, at that. 

Then, elsewhere, the Lions lost.  They shouldn’t have, but they did.  And not just lost – they got their hearts ripped out at the very end of the game.  While they were hardly right on our heels, their loss is important to us because they come into Lambeau tonight with so much less to play for. 

And then, lo and behold, the Bears, 49ers, and Giants also all lost.  Amazing!  What an unlikely alignment of the stars on our behalf!  And so we go into Week 14, not only atop the NFC North, but also the third seed in the NFC altogether.  Ahead of the Bears.  Ahead of the Seahawks.  Ahead of the Giants.  And only a half-game behind the 49ers!  It’s quite remarkable, really, when you think back to that 2-3 start or that shellacking in New York a couple of weeks ago.

So, now, we are in the happy position of rooting against certain other teams only out of reflex, but not out of necessity.  The Packers’ fate is in their own hands.  All they have to do is keep winning their own games, and they’ll be sitting pretty in January.

It would be nice, of course, if the Bears would give us some breathing room by losing to the Vikings.  That is not beyond the realm of possibility, in my judgment.  The game is in Minnesota, and if the Vikings just keep handing the ball to Peterson, I think they could pull it off.  I don’t think they’re the better team, but they are 6-6, which is right on the cusp of the watershed for the Bears this year.

It would also be delightful if the Dolphins won in San Francisco.  I’m not holding my breath for that one, though.  I think the 49ers are going to demolish Miami.

The Giants, meanwhile, may well lose to the Saints.  New Orleans took a real hit last week in their failure against the Falcons.  But they’ve been proud enough to keep fighting all season against the odds, and so they may do us a favor in New York.

But, of course, we don’t really need anyone else to do us a favor.  We just need to beat the Lions.  We already did it once this year up in Detroit, and now the Lions have less to play for, and they’ll be doing it in the cold and amidst a really energized crowd at Lambeau Field.  If we can just keep Rodgers clean, I really like our chances tonight.

Finally, the game of the week is, admittedly, not our Sunday Night game, but the Monday Night event in Foxboro.  The 11-1 Texans visit the 9-3 Patriots in a possible preview of the AFC Championship game.  That should be a great match-up, though, of course, it has nothing to do with us… until February 3rd!