Week Eight -- A Look Ahead

Our game is the game this football weekend. It's the game that everyone's talking about, the one getting all the national buzz. In addition to being a competitive match-up, it is also a key game in a Divisional race. But beyond all of that, of course, it is Brett Favre's return to Lambeau Field, and that's what makes it amazing drama.

We'll process the emotions of the occasion at another time. For right now, let's focus on the football.

When we played the Vikings in Minnesota four weeks ago, I think they proved that they are the better team. They only won by 7, but they were in control the whole time. Their running game was better. Their defense was better. And their passing game was better inasmuch as their passer had time, while ours did not.

The question, then, is this: How much has changed in four weeks?

I still fear that Minnesota is the better overall team. On the other hand, I doubt that they will be able to dominate us as thoroughly in this second meeting as they did in the first. I think we will make fewer mistakes, and I'm hopeful that we'll have some better technique for coping with Jared Allen. Those things, plus the home field advantage, add up to a several-point difference in my judgment.

Meaning what? Meaning a one- or two-point loss for Green Bay instead of a seven-point loss. That's my assessment. My hope, however, is for a butt-kicking win!



Meanwhile, we certainly need to win. The Vikings already enjoy a game-and-a-half lead over us in the Division, and the Bears are almost certainly going to win this weekend when they play the Browns. (If Chicago loses to Cleveland, Lovie Smith and Jim Zorn will have to form some sort of support group together.)

The other NFC North game is entirely inconsquential: the Rams are playing in Detroit this Sunday. What an ugly-fest that is likely to be. I'm picking the Lions to win -- but, really, who cares?


Elsewhere, the 49ers trip to Indy might be an interesting game, though I expect the Colts to remain undefeated.

The really sexy match-up of the weekend (beyond our own game, of course) is the Falcons against the Saints on Monday Night Football. New Orleans is still perfect on the season, but they haven't played a divisional game yet. The Falcons, meanwhile, are a solid team, and clearly they are the Saints best competition in the NFC South.

Historically, you know, Monday Night Football is where some famous undefeated streaks have come to an end. It could be an amazing game. And if it were being played in Atlanta, I would probably pick the Falcons to upset the Saints. As it is, though, I say that New Orleans stays perfect for another week.

Bottom line for Week Eight?

Everyone in our Division wins except us, setting us up for a 9-7 finish and missing the playoffs. Favre, meanwhile, adds to his legacy with another amazing performance on a national stage, but this time at our expense.

Elsewhere, three undefeated teams going into the weekend; two coming out (I say the Broncos go down in Baltimore). And three winless teams going in; two coming out (I'm picking Tennessee to take care of business against Jacksonville.)

A City in Pain

After Sunday's beatdown, Green Bay Packer fans are now personally familiar with how pathetic the Cleveland Browns are.

After years of almost-but-not-quite heartbreak in the 70s and 80s, Cleveland lost its beloved franchise when Judas Modell turned them into the Baltimore Ravens. Then, when the league made the unprecedented move of letting Cleveland get its "Browns" back as a new expansion club, the football city was reborn.

But, no.

Since reentering the league for the 1999 season, the Browns have had just 2 winning seasons (and one of those was a 9-7 season), with just one playoff appearance (a first-round loss).

And, perhaps worse than their W-L record is their coaching record during that time. In 11 seasons of futility, Cleveland fans have suffered through the nearly indistinguishable reigns of Chris Palmer, Butch Davis, Terry Robiskie, Romeo Crennel, and Eric Mangini. There's a "Who's Who" of guys who won't be head coaches again.

Meanwhile, their last head coach before Modell moved them did manage to catch on as a head coach elsewhere with some modicum of success: New England's Bill Belichick.

Which brings us to the current subject of the guys that Cleveland has let get away...

The two starting pitches for Game 1 of the World Series (C.C. Sabbathia and Cliff Lee) are both former Cleveland Indians. The starting right fielder, Ben Francisco, is also a former Indian. The Phillies manager, Charlie Manuel, was with the Indians (2000-2002). And even the Phillies GM, Ruben Amaro, used to play for the Indians in the mid-90s.

Cleveland sports fans must have a bitter taste in their mouth as they watch this year's World Series.

And as they watch this year's NFL season.

The only thing Cleveland fans have going for them right now is LeBron James, who continues to flirt with leaving for "greener" pastures after this season, making him potentially one more to add to the list of guys that Cleveland let get away.

So root for the Browns this Sunday, just out of compassion! (And then, of course, there's also the fact that they're playing the Bears.)

Over the Horizon

With so much attention -- and emotion -- being devoted to this Sunday's upcoming game between the Minnesota Packers and the Green Bay Packers, I thought it might be refreshing to look beyond that game and see what lies ahead for the members of our team still playing in Green & Gold.

Here is our remaining schedule after this Sunday's much-hyped Minnesota game:

November 8th -- at Tampa Bay
November 15th -- Dallas
November 22nd -- San Francisco
November 26th -- at Detroit
December 7th -- Baltimore
December 13th -- at Chicago
December 20th -- at Pittsburgh
December 27th -- Seattle
January 3rd -- at Arizona

It's a happy thing, of course, to see the Bucs and Lions on one's schedule. On the other hand, it's hard to envision us beating the Ravens and Steelers. (Fortunately, those are both out-of-Conference opponents.) The Cowboys, 49ers, and Cowboys all look to be in the NFC playoff hunt, and so winning those games will be doubly important. Meanwhile, I'm thinking the Seahawks will be eliminated from playoff contention by the time they pay their cold and snowy visit to Lambeau, and I look for us to take care of business on that Sunday.

Projecting out, I can see us going 9-7, which I don't think will be good enough for the postseason. If we beat the Vikings this Sunday, however, I predict a 10-6 record, which I think will earn us a berth.

Pinch Me

Week Six in the NFL was surreal.

The Texans upsetting the Bengals in Cincinnati? The Eagles losing to the Raiders? The Jets getting upended at home by the Bills? The Chiefs winning? Strange business!

Things got back to normal in Week Seven, however. The Bengals dominated at home, the Eagles won, the Jets annihilated the Raiders, and the Chiefs lost. Ah, now that's a more familiar landscape.

Of course, football fans are naturally given to extreme reactions. A baseball team will play 5 games in the span of time that a football team plays 2, and its season lasts for six months. Baseball fans, therefore, are less reactive -- they keep the big picture in view. A single loss is hardly devastating in a game where the best teams are going to lose 50+ games.

In football, however, each win and loss is so important. We can talk about "it's a long season," but still something within us jumps to dramatic conclusions after just a couple of wins or just a couple of losses.

"What's wrong with the Giants?" "The Bears stink!" "Are the Texans for real?" "The Saints are unbeatable!" These are the broad brush questions and hasty conclusions to which the football fan is inclined.

Well, the Giants have lost 2 in a row and the Bills have won 2 in a row, but I still think I'd rather be a Giants fan than a Bills fan this season. So, we'll take a deep breath, try to rein in our overreactions, and calmly watch the season unfold.

(That said, Green Bay has won their last two games by a combined score of 57-3... Super Bowl bound, Baby!)

A Perfect Weekend

Some Packer fans have created veritable shrines in their basements and rec rooms. Their walls and shelves are filled with pennants, posters, jerseys, ticket stubs, autographs, clippings and other paraphernalia that reflects the highlights from their years of allegiance.

Well, if an entire afternoon could be bronzed and displayed on a shelf, this Sunday afternoon would qualify. What a perfect weekend for Packer fans!

First, of course, there was the cakewalk in Cleveland. While there was a moment of concern when the Browns drove so effectively into the Packer red zone early in the game, their failure to turn it into a touchdown gave not only a sense of relief, but also a sense of how the rest of game would unfold. Cleveland was inept on offense, and their defense was no match for the Packers' explosiveness. Like last week's romp over Detroit, this week's game was another three hours of pleasure viewing. And even more pleasurable than last week, in fact, because there were fewer Green Bay mistakes.

We'll explore the details of Packers' victory more in the days ahead.

Then, later in the day, there was the public undressing of the Chicago Bears. Another three hours of undisturbed pleasure! I did expect the Bengals to win, but this was no contest. If I were a Bears fan, I wouldn't know where to begin in analyzing, evaluating, and processing this loss. What an embarrassment. Obviously even good teams lose games. But does a truly good team get plastered like that? I don't think so.

In the 4th quarter, the announcer said it was going to be a highly forgettable game for Lovie Smith and the Bears. Forgettable? That would be a mercy if they could just forget it.

'Should be another great week of eavesdropping on Chicago sports talk radio!

The real piece de resistance, however, was the Viking loss.

FOX moved briefly to coverage of the Minnesota-Pittsburgh game after the conclusion of Green Bay's victory. When we tuned in, the Steelers were ahead by 3 with just under 2 minute to play -- an encouraging scenario. It began to look ominous, however, as Favre and Peterson moved the Vikings into Pittsburgh territory, and then quickly into field goal range.

Last Sunday, my enjoyment of the Packer win was partly spoiled by the subsequent coverage of the Vikings' last minute comeback against Baltimore, followed by the Ravens' missed attempt at a game-winning field goal. And now I feared the same kind of nonsense was going to unfold before my eyes again -- a great Packer victory somewhat deflated by having to watch more 4th-quarter Favre heroics.

But, no! A muffed pass turns into an interception, and the interception turns into a Pittsburgh touchdown. 'Not enough time left for Favre to come back from a 10-point deficit.

I have only cheered for the Pittsburgh Steelers about 3 times in my entire life, and each time most reluctantly. But I was a big Steeler fan today, and delighted by the outcome.

So, it was a perfect Packer weekend. We'll enjoy it for a few days... and then we'll take a look at what lies ahead.

Week Seven -- A Look Ahead

The NFC North is spending Sunday in the AFC North. While the Packers play in Cleveland, the Bears will be in Cincinnati and the Vikings will head to Pittsburgh. (The Lions have their bye.) Happily, Green Bay draws the shortest straw. The Steelers and Ravens are still in our future, and we've already lost to the Bengals. But for this week, we get the easiest assignment.

Cleveland will probably be more competitive than Detroit was last weekend, although the reports are that the Browns have been afflicted by the Swine Flu. The Packers may have to wear a different sort of facemask on Sunday. Though it's an out-of-Conference road game, it really is a must-win for Green Bay. You can't afford to let a game like this against a dysfunctional, inferior opponent get away.

Meanwhile, the Bears are also traveling to Ohio, as they face the Bengals this Sunday. Cincy is knotted with Pittsburgh atop their Division, and they have proven themselves a formidable team this year. They clearly faltered last week against Houston, but I think that will help their focus this Sunday. I like the Bengals in this game, and Cedric Benson, who has already been playing well, will be playing with an extra chip on his shoulder.

Brett and the Vikings will be in Pittsburgh for one of the most intriguing match-ups of the season. The Steelers are 5.5 to 6 point favorites. Personally, I'd pick Minnesota against that spread. I'm worried that the Steelers won't be able to get anything done against the Viking defense, but Polamalu is coming back and I relish the prospect of the Pittsburgh defense shutting down the Brett-and-Adrian Show.

Elsewhere around the league, it's really something of a ho-hum week. No great match-ups.

Perhaps the most interesting game will be the Falcons in Dallas. The Cowboys are favored by 4.5, but the Falcons are playing like a better top-to-bottom team. Dallas looks to me like a team that's waiting to have a coaching hot-seat issue. I like Atlanta in this game.

The Colts play in St. Louis, which should mean the rich get richer and the poor get poorer in terms of the Win-Loss column.

The Colts are 1 of 4 undefeated teams going into this week, and the Rams are 1 of 3 winless teams. As I look at the match-ups, I envision the status quo persisting into Week Eight -- though of course I'm hopeful that Minnesota will drop from the ranks of the unbeaten.

"Shazam!"

Do you remember how Gomer Pyle used to cheerfully declare, "Surprise, surprise, surprise!"?Well, that was the voice I heard again and again this past Sunday as I was watching the Week Six NFL action unfold.

I was so surprised by what I saw!

I was surprised that the Giants were beaten by more points (21) than the Browns (13).

I was surprised that the lowly Bills went into New York and upset the Jets.

I was not surprised that the Patriots beat the Titans, but I was astonished that they made it look like a pro team playing a high school team. 59-0! Have they no pride left in Tennessee? What happened to the team that started 2008 10-0 and ended at 13-3?! That's really one of the most amazing stories of this NFL season.

I was likewise amazed that the Redskins let the winless Chiefs come in and beat them at home. Wow, how ugly is that situation in Washington?

I was surprised that the Broncos stayed perfect on the road against a Charger team that needed the game more.

I was surprised that the Bengals lost at home to the Texans -- and then to read later that Houston QB Matt Schaub leads the NFL in TD passes! (There's a trivia question that you could win a few dollars with right now, with Tom Brady and Drew Brees being everyone's natural guesses.)

I was surprised that the Seahawks, who had just obliterated the Jaguars 41-0 the week before, would get so badly beaten at home by the Cardinals.

And I was stunned that the Eagles lost to the Raiders. Good teams don't lose that game.

So, what to make of the 2009 NFL? The Jets and Ravens both burst out of the gates with 3-0 records and grabbed their division leads, only to lose three consecutive games, dropping to .500 and forfeiting their leads. The Saints are crazy good, the Titans are crazy bad, and Brett Favre is 6-0 for the first time in his looooong career.

Shazam!

More Favre in Sears

Several days ago, I posted the YouTube links to the two Brett Favre commercials that Sears has running on TV.

Now I have also discovered that there is an outtakes video from those commericals. Here is the link to that.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zz2PpEIbfv0&feature=channel

It's not laugh-out-loud funny like some outtakes are, but it's still interesting viewing. He's got this understated style that is really quite charming. Enjoy.

I'm An Old Man

Packers' rookie linebacker, Clay Matthews, made some excellent plays against the Lions. But every time I hear his name called, I think I'm getting old.

I remember watching his dad (also Clay Matthews) play for the Cleveland Browns throughout the 80s. And now to be watching and cheering for his son is blowing my mind.

Similarly, do you remember Bobby Hebert? It doesn't seem that long ago to me that he was the talk of the Saints. Yet the other day I saw his son playing in some college game I was watching. How does Bobby Hebert have a son in college?

It's not like I remember Y.A. Tittle. I just didn't think so many years had passed so quickly that I would remember seeing the fathers while watching their sons.

Reunion Tour

In the wake of DeShawn Wynn's injury, the Packers needed to add depth at the running back position. Who you gonna call? Ahmad Green!

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/football/nfl/10/21/packers.ap/index.html

SI.com reports that Green, who was cut by the Texans back in February (not an encouraging sign) needs just 46 more yards in a Packer uniform to pass Jimmy Taylor's franchise career rushing record. Eleven games left in the season? He should make it.

I liked Green when he was here. That seems like a long time ago now, though, and one wonders if he has any more miles left in his tires.

With the addition of Green this week and Mark Tauscher a few days before, Green Bay is becoming quite the 2001 team picture.

Say, while we're at it, why don't we also bring back... no, forget it, he's already got a job.

A Recipe for Success

Give the Green Bay coaching staff credit. Always thinking outside the box, they have abandoned conventional wisdom and devised a new strategy for victory. Rather than playing good football, just play bad teams.

The Packers have won three games so far in 2009. The Rams and Lions are a combined 1-11. The Bears, meanwhile, are a more respectable 3-2, but on the night that we played them, they played like a bad team, which is the next best thing to being a bad team.

I believe that our clever approach should work again next Sunday in Cleveland. After that, however, we may need to return to the traditional method of winning: playing good football.

Mr. Fix-It

When Mike McCarthy was relatively new, I remember being impressed by what I heard during a post-game news conference. He was asked about something the Packers had done wrong -- turnovers, penalties, something -- and Coach McCarthy answered matter-of-factly: "We're going to identify our mistakes, and we're going to fix 'em."

It sounded so convincing when he said it then. So determined. So authoritative. So no-nonsense.

When Tony Siragusa was reporting at the start of Green Bay's second half, he mentioned his halftime conversation with McCarthy. He had asked McCarthy about the first-half sacks. And McCarthy, in reference to the sacks and the penalties, evidently said that they were going to fix that during halftime.

Fix those things during halftime? They had just come off of their bye week! Had McCarthy & Co. not observed the problem with penalties and sacks prior to the first half of the Lions game?

Now, in fairness, we did give up fewers sacks and commit fewer penalties in the second half than in the first half on Sunday. We also only scored 3 of our 26 points in the second half, however. And so I'm not all there with McCarthy's halftime adjustments.

The first time I heard him say that he was going to identify the team's problems and fix them, he sounded so convincing. I find that he doesn't sound convincing any more.

Reflections on Favre

It was a nearly perfect weekend for Packer fans. Not only did Green Bay demolish the Lions at Lambeau, but the Bears lost in Atlanta, and the Ravens almost broke the Vikings' hearts in Minnesota. Just a better kick -- and it was a makeable kick -- and the Vikings would have suffered their first loss. So close.

Instead, however, Minnesota remains undefeated, and they are being talked about as part of the cream-of-the-crop in the NFC. Yuck.

And, of course, Favre worked his 4th-quarter magic. Again.

During halftime of the Packers game, the FOX crew did their ususal fast-paced coverage of other action from around the league. And in describing the Raven-Viking game, Terry Bradshaw remarked, "No one throws more touchdowns inside the 5-yard-line than Brett Favre."

I don't think that Bradshaw was citing stats from the Elias Sports Bureau. It was just an off-the-cuff observation. But in light of the Packers' own struggles to seal the deal once they got inside the Lions' 30, it was interesting to consider how proficient Favre is in the red zone.

Again, I bear no malice toward Aaron Rodgers. I think he's terrific. And I suspect that Favre is surrounded by a better team right now than Rodgers is. Still, I can't help but revisit Ted Thompson's willingness -- dare we say, eagerness? -- to jettison Favre and move on to Rodgers.

Colin Cowherd (ESPN Radio) made an intersting observation about Favre last week. He compared Favre to Tiger Woods. Woods, he said, doesn't win a tournament by 15 strokes. He wins it by four. That means, Cowherd observed, that he's just one stroke a day better than the next guy. Just one stroke a day.

That, Cowherd argued, is the thing about Favre. He's just one or two plays a game better than Rodgers. Rodgers will put up good numbers and play very nicely, but those one or two plays that are part of Favre's greatness will mean more wins in the long run.

That's clearly not how Thompson reasoned it. But I'm not sure that "reason" was the real motivating factor in the decision anyway.

Eye Candy

As I watched the Badgers underperform in the second half at home against Iowa on Saturday, I wondered why it is that I watch football so faithfully. Does it really qualify as a pleasure? After all, I get so agitated and frustrated. I do more complaining during a football game than in any other area of life. My palms get sweaty and I pace around the room.

Is this fun?

Well, it was fun on Sunday afternoon. From beginning to end, the Packers' game was a genuine pleasure to watch. No anxiety. No real frustration. No pacing around the room, and no sweaty palms. We took charge early, and we just kept piling on as the game went along.

Now I don't emerge from Sunday's drubbing of Detroit feeling overly confident about our team going forward. In many respects, we didn't play well. But we played more than well enough for the task at hand.

We pitched a complete game shutout. Rodgers threw for over 300 yards. Crosby was money on four field goal attempts. The defense picked off 3 passes. And we doubled-up the Lions in time of possession. It was a great game.

And it was a pleasure to watch!

Week Six -- A Look Ahead

Week Six could be a good one for the Packers.

First, we begin by playing a very winnable game. We're playing at home, and we're playing the Detroit Lions. Now I don't think Detroit is incapable of winning the game, but I do feel certain that we're the better team. Plus, coming off our bye, we should be fit and ready to play. I'm hopeful that we'll have put all the pieces together, and I'm looking for a 10+ point victory.

Meanwhile, we might be able to make up ground in the Division, for both the Bears and Vikings face tough opponents.

Minnesota welcomes the 3-2 Baltimore Ravens. The Vikings have the better record, but I'm not convinced that they are the better team. Baltimore vaulted to the top of many folks' power rankings as they rocketed out to a 3-0 record. Now they've lost two in a row, and it's hard for me to imagine them losing a third consecutive game. The Ravens will be playing with a much greater sense of urgency as they are knotted in second place in very tight divisional race, while the Vikings are fat-and-happy with a couple-game lead over their rivals.

Meanwhile on Sunday Night, the 3-1 Bears travel to Atlanta to take on the 3-1 Falcons. Atlanta is coming off a very impressive victory in San Francisco against a much-improved 49er team. The Bears have put together a 3-game win streak and are coming off their bye. If I had to put money on this game, I don't know which way I'd go. As it is, though, I think we at least have realistic hopes of a Chicago loss.

Elsewhere...

Evidently this is the first time in NFL history that 5 teams (Broncos, Colts, Giants, Eagles, Saints) have made it to Week 6 undefeated. At least one of them will fall from those ranks this week, as the Giants and Saints play each other. Also, either the Vikings (vs. Baltimore) or the Broncos (at San Diego) could reasonably fall this weekend.

We talked about the Vikings above. The Broncos, meanwhile, are playing on Monday Night Football, which is where perfect records go to die. Also, a divisional game against a capable opponent...? I am impressed that Denver beat the Patriots, but I think this week might be where they stumble.

At the other end of the NFL spectrum, Week 6 sees four teams (Chiefs, Titans, Rams, Bucs) yet to win ther first game. Three of them might do it this weekend.

The 0-5 Chiefs will go to Washington in search of their first win, and they may have come to the right place. Of course, that would guarantee the end for Jim Zorn, and Washington is the better team. Still, they have underperformed this season.

The 1-3 Panthers play at the 0-5 Buccaneers. Again, the Panthers are better, and they'll probably use this game to start putting their pieces back together. Still, the Bucs have a chance.

The 0-5 Titans have to play the 3-2 Patriots. I don't think this is the week Tennessee gets its win.

The 0-5 Rams play the 2-3 Jaguars. Jacksonville just got annihilated by the Seahawks, while the Rams have shown some signs of life here and there. Maybe this will be their week.

The game of the week has to be the Giants' trip to New Orleans. The Giants come in at 5-0 and are widely considered to be one of the elite teams in the league. Meanwhile, the Saints are also undefeated at 4-0. And after several weeks of dazzling folks with their offense, their most recent outing also demonstrated their formidable defense. Playoff seedings and home field advantage may be on the line. It should be an excellent game!

Bottom line predictions? 5 undefeated teams going in; 3 coming out. 4 winless teams going in; 3 coming out. Packers win. Either the Bears or Vikings lose -- probably not both, but certainly one -- so that the Packers make up some ground in the NFC North.

A Farewell to Aaron?

John Lopez (SI.com) makes a case that I have heard a few others make on the radio.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/john_lopez/10/14/trades/index.html

His contention is that the Packers should deal Aaron Kampman before next Tuesday's trading deadline. The logic is that Kampman has proved he is an excellent defensive end, and therefore has value for a team running a 4-3 defense. On the other hand, he is not proving himself well-suited for Green Bay's new 3-4 defense.

I've heard several people make the case that it would be good for both Kampman and the Packers to get a trade done. Lopez suggests a specific trade possibility with the Bengals, which would help strengthen our notorious offensive line.

It would be hard to say goodbye to Kampman, who has provided such excellent and exciting defense over recent years. On the other hand, we may have already said goodbye to the player we had known when we moved him out of his natural position.

Reflections on Week 5

The games have all been played now for this week in the NFL, and there were some interesting developments this week.

First, I'm feeling better and better about our loss to the Cincinnati Bengals a few weeks ago. Boy, have they ever put the pieces together! Not only did they come into Lambeau and beat the Packers, they went on to defeat the defending champion Steelers the next week. And now, this weekend, they went into Baltimore and beat a team that many were thinking might be one of the best in the NFL. And if it hadn't been for that fluke play at the end of their Week One game against Denver, the Bengals rather than the Broncos would be the surprise undefeated team heading into Week 6.

Speaking of the Broncos, wow! I wasn't fully persuaded about them going into this week, but you've got to be impressed by their handing it to the Patriots. Clearly New England is not the wrecking machine that it was in 2007, but still they're an amazing organization, they've got great players, and they're led by a phenomenal coach. This one was a real coup for Josh McDaniels and Denver. After so unpromising an off-season, I can't help but be impressed by the Broncos (even though I don't like them).

Elsewhere, how ugly are things in Washington? What's the over-under on the number of days that Jim Zorn will remain the coach of that team? And now, to make matters worse, they get to host the 0-5 Chiefs this Sunday. The timing only draws more attention to the Redskins' soft schedule to-date, and the prospect of losing to another winless team is almost unbearable.

Likewise, how painful is life in Titans-land? Can there be any fan-base in the NFL so crushed by disappointment in 2009? We all go in with expectations, and sometimes they are exceeded, while other times they are disappointed. But there can't be any greater disparity between expectation and reality this year than in Tennessee. And after struggling to an unthinkable 0-5 start, now the Titans have to play in New England!

And I can't imagine the Patriots losing this one. They were somewhat humbled by the trip to Denver, and they clearly have some issues, but I don't see them losing two in a row. They caught a break when the Dolphins upset the Jets on Monday Night, and so they're still right there in the hunt in the AFC East. Plus, they almost have to win since the Jets get to host the Bills.

And the Bills are pathetic, aren't they? A 6-3 loss to Cleveland. More than that, a 6-3 loss to a team whose starting QB went 2-17 with an interception. How do you lose that game?

But the Bills and Browns are just two members of what seems to be an uncommonly large collection in this year's NFL: that is, really embarrassingly bad teams. In addition to their futility-fest on Sunday, the Bucs got beaten by 19 points, the Titans by 22, the Rams by 28, the Raiders by 37, and the Jaguars by 41. The NFL doesn't usually feature point-spreads like that. These are the kinds of whoppings you expect to see in the early weeks of the college football season, when the big boys are bringing in the out-of-conference cupcakes as their warm-up acts.

Meanwhile, our own Division unfolded as expected in Week Five. The Vikings won a game they should have won and the Lions lost a game they should have lost. On the other hand, the Lions looked competitive against the Steelers, and so they shouldn't be overlooked by the Packers.

Week Six is setting up to be a very interesting one. 'More on that in a few days.

A Little Emotional Math

So I was watching a little of the baseball playoffs. I'm not nearly as interested in baseball as I am in football. Football is clearly a superior sport. Still, when playoff time rolls around in either the MLB, the NCAA, or the NBA, I'll tune in.

So I'm watching the Yankees/Twins series. I hadn't followed either team durin the regular season, and so I don't feel intimately familiar with or connected to either one. I don't feel a particular connection to any of the players or either of the managers. It should be a completely neutral experience for me to watch those two teams play.

But it wasn't.

The Twins are from Minnesota. I see them playing in the Metrodome, home of the Vikings. I figure the same sports fans up there are rooting for the Vikings and Twins alike. And so, suddenly, I find myself cheering for the Yankees.

I should say that if the Detroit Tigers had won that 163rd game a few days back, I would probably be cheering for them against the Yankees. I feel like Detroit fans need something to cheer for and feel good about. But the Minnesota fans? They're feeling plenty fine for my taste.

And so I see this principle at work in me. My loyalty to the Packers combines with my irritation at the present state of affairs in the NFC North to result in a certain vindictiveness on my part. It's not exactly E=MC2, but here is my conclusion:

Loyalty + Frustration = Pettiness

And I have a hunch it applies in other areas of life beyond sports.

Week Five -- A Look Ahead

This is the worst weekend of the NFL schedule -- the weekend that the Packers don't play. And, as it turns out, it's also not much of a weekend in terms of match-ups. Nothing like last week, at least. The best game of this football weekend is the big college tilt: Florida at LSU.

Looking around the NFL, however, we observe the following...

There are six winless teams playing this weekend, and none of them is playing another, and so it's possible that we'll come out of Week 5 still with six winless teams.

Meanwhile, there are five undefeated teams going into this weekend, and none of them is playing another, either, and so we may end up with five teams still undefeated.

The unhappy match-ups we DO have, however, include two undefeated teams playing two winless teams. It's hard to imagine the status quo not prevailing there.

The 0-4 Titans host the 4-0 Colts. I can't picture Tennessee going 0-5, and yet it's also hard to see the Colts blowing this one. Still, there's always that capacity for strange things to happen within a Division.

Elsewhere, the 0-4 Rams host the 4-0 Vikings. Ugh. I'd love to see the Rams pull it all together an upset the Vikings, but that seems so far-fetched to hope for. The Vikings really are quite a good team, and the Rams really are poor. The only hope here is the letdown effect -- an emotional win, a short week, and a cupcake opponent. Maybe those factors can combine to make Minnesota falter. After all, regardless of the records, both teams still just get 11 guys on the field at a time.

The o-4 Browns travel to 1-3 Buffalo in a battle of the uglies. Maybe Cleveland is the one winless team with a chance this weekend.

The 0-3 Panthers host the 2-2 Redskins. If Washington loses to the Panthers, having so recently given a victory to the hapless Lions, you've got to think there would be no point in Zorn even getting on the plane back home.

The 0-4 Chiefs host the 2-2 Cowboys. Dallas was quite stymied last week by the surprising Broncos, but they'll beat KC, and then all their looney fans will think everything's alright again with the Cowboys. But it's not.

The 0-4 Bucs are at the 2-1 Eagles. Look for Tampa Bay to go to 0-5.

The undefeated Giants (4-0) should make short work of the visiting Raiders.

And, finally, in the best game of the week in the NFL, the 3-1 Patriots travel to Denver to play the undefeated Broncos. This one is interesting. Denver is easily the biggest surprise of the season so far, but this is their proof-is-in-the-pudding game. Losing to New England doesn't make Denver a bad team, of course, but beating New England suddenly validates the Broncos' surprising record.

Then, too, there is the whole coaching tree angle, as Josh McDaniels tries to best his mentor.

Meanwhile, the Patriots can't mess around, for they are tied with the Jets (to whom they've already lost) atop the AFC East, and New York is almost certain to get a "W" on Monday Night against the struggling Dolphins.

Bottom line? I see six winless teams going in and five winless teams coming out. I see five undefeated teams going in and four undefeated teams coming out. And within our Division, I see the Vikings notching another win, the Lions getting another loss, and the Bears and Packers standing pat during their bye.

1st Quarter Review

Don Banks (SI.com) has written a very insightful review of the first quarter of the NFL season. His brief remarks on the Packers -- or our Division rivals -- are not necessarily that encouraging to us. Nevertheless, it's an interesting piece, offering quick insight into a wide variety of situations around the league.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/don_banks/10/08/receivers/index.html

A Peek Down the Road

As Packer fans lick their wounds after the Monday Night disappointment, we may take some solace in what lies ahead for our team.

First, a bye. I generally don't like such an early bye week, but it's better than a short week after an emotional loss. Also, we clearly have some things we need to fix. Perhaps the extra week will provide a kind of back-to-the-drawing-board opportunity for the coaches and players. And, too, we're pretty nicked up. I'd like to think that we'll be healthier the next time we have to take the field.

Happily, when we do take the field again, we proceed to two very winnable games. We host the Lions on October 18th and then we travel to Cleveland on October 25th. If we can't come out of October at 4-2, then we may as well just throw in the towel.

The Vikings, meanwhile, get the next best thing to a bye this week -- they play the Rams. Now this does have the potential to be a "letdown" game for Minnesota. We can only hope. My expectation, however, is that they will progress to a 5-0 records, while we languish at 2-2.

The next week, however, the Vikings have to host the Ravens, which should mark the end to their undefeated season. And the week after that, they travel to Pittsburgh, which should notch another "L" in their heretofore unblemished record.

Meanwhile, the Bears face a few challenges of their own. They have to travel to Atlanta, where I can imagine them losing. And then they head to Cincinnati to face a Bengals teams whose toughness we can endorse.

In the end, the Packers' October is much more favorable than the Vikings' or the Bears'. And so my hope is that we shall head into November with (a) an improved team and (b) an improved standing within the Division.

Help is On the Way?

Rumors are that the Packers are trying to bring back Mark Tauscher to bolster the notoriously poor offensive line. As of this moment, I don't have the impression that a deal is done. That's what we hear the team is aiming for, however.

Tauscher is a proven commodity, though perhaps somewhat hobbled. At least one would think that he could walk in and start participating without missing a beat because of his familiarity.

While we're at it, why not bring back Jeff Jagodzinksi -- he's still looking for work, isn't he? -- to coach 'em up in that zone blocking scheme that he led so well so briefly.

And, meanwhile, aren't we millions of dollars under the salary cap? I'm all for prudence, but the goal is to win games, not cut coupons. And we won't win many games with the present lack of talent and lack of depth on the O-line. Open the purse, Ted, and do your chosen QB a big favor.

Turning Vice into Charm

Have you seen the Sears commercials featuring Brett Favre?

If you watched the Monday Night game -- or much other football this season -- then you've had opportunity to see it. Still, with all the capacity we have that allows us to miss commercials, it's possible that you may have missed this.

It's worth watching.

There is a short version, which is absolutely charming, and can be found on YouTube here:



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9enj55iSwk&feature=channel


And then there is a longer version, which can also be found on YouTube:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xDhi06XIAM

Considering his familiarity and popularity, Favre had never been used much as a pitchman. Nothing compared to, say, Peyton Manning. He did some local auto dealer commercials for a while, and eventually he was frequently seen on the jeans commercials nationwide. But this Sears ad campaign is real genius.

I admire Brett's willingness to poke fun at himself. And his understated style is just right for the ad. If you haven't caught it on TV (or radio), click, watch, and enjoy!

We Weren't Alone

Well, you and I certainly weren't alone as we sat watching the Packers on Monday Night Football. SI.com reports that the Favre-vs.-Packers event was the most-watched cable show... ever!

I'm no student of TV ratings, viewership, shares, etc., but if I were going to guess at the most-watched or highest rated events ever shown on cable TV, I'm sure I would have guessed a half-dozen or so things before a football game.

I guess that's what happens when you mix just a little soap opera into America's sport.

Here's the SI.com story with the details:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/football/nfl/10/06/vikings.packers.ratings.ap/index.html

Odds for Ends

Late in the Monday Night game, ESPN showed a statistic to illustrate the playoff probabilities of teams with various records after 4 games.

Teams that jump out to a 4-0 start (like the Vikings) make the playoffs 84% of the time.

Teams that get a good 3-1 start (like the Bears) make the playoffs 64% of the time.

Meanwhile, teams that get a 2-2 start (like the Packers) make the playoff just 35% of the time. "Look at that precipitous drop," Mike Tirico observed, "from 3-1 to 2-2." Great.

And teams (like the Lions) that stumble to a 1-3 start make the playoffs just 15% of the time.

Finally, outside the parameters of our Division's current records, teams that get blanked through the first quarter (like the Browns, Titans, Chiefs, Rams, and Bucs) make the playoffs just 2% of the time.

Two-percent? Wow! We may be unhappy about what happened on Monday Night, but imagine what it would feel like for your season to be effectively over before Columbus Day!

Post Mortem

There is much to be said about last night's game, and so we'll probably take several days to say it. Also, the passage of a few days will probably lessen the sting and improve the perspective. For now, though, these quick-hit observations...

The bottom line in football is "How many points?" The Vikings bested us there by 7 (though it felt like more). Above that bottom line, however, are some other "how manys."

How many penalties?

How many turnovers?

How many sacks?

Those are the killer numbers from last night. And while we can't go back and change the "how many points" part of the game, we sure better address those other numbers before we get back on the field following our bye week.

I'm not sure that I can call last night's game a disappointment. I didn't really feel disappointed, for frankly I didn't go in with high expectations. Don't get me wrong: I was rooting, I was into it, I was all there. But I didn't expect the Packers to beat the Vikings, and so in that sense I wasn't disappointed by their 7-point loss.

In some respects, I was actually pleased by Green Bay's performance. Most notably, I was very pleased to see us neutralize Adrian Peterson. I am weary of all the Peterson hype, and I honestly feared that he would run all over us. But our defense kept him very well contained, making Brett the real hero for the Vikings last night.

And that was the other thing I was pleased about. I'm glad that, if Green Bay had to lose, it was because Favre had a brilliant night. For while I am a die-hard fan of the Packers, I am not a fan of Ted Thompson, and my jury is still out on Mike McCarthy. I was glad, therefore, to see Brett vindicate himself right under their noses.

Speaking of Thompson and Mike McCarthy, they were so confident that they were making the right decision by "moving on" to Aaron Rodgers. Well, now, I have no beef with Aaron Rodgers -- in fact, I think he's terrific, and I think he does a great job with what he's got -- but it's clear to all observers that the Packers would not have suffered by welcoming Favre back when he wanted to unretire last summer.

On the contrary, it is Favre who would have suffered, for the Thompson-McCarthy brain trust has not provided even average protection for their quarterback. Green Bay has surrendered 20 sacks so far this year -- most in the NFL -- and they are on pace to give up a scandalous 80 sacks on the season!

Speaking of the Manchurian offensive line, did you see the play late in the 4th quarter when Jared Allen got flagged for being offsides because he was "unabated to the quarterback"? It's too bad the Vikings couldn't be penalized for being "barely abated to the quarterback." That would have been a real boost last night.

Jared Allen earned four-and-a-half of the Vikings' 8 sacks on the night. Because of his stellar peformance, they kept showing him on the sidelines, which was unfortunate. He doesn't look as good on the sideline as he does on the field. He was wise to choose a sport that includes a helmet and facemask.

Well, the season is still young. Being a field goal behind at the end of the first quarter of a game is no cause for panic; neither is being two games behind at the end of the first quarter of the season. We've got a lot of talent on both sides of the ball and plenty of time to make up ground in the Division. But we've got to solve those "how manys" that we identified above.

Uh, oh!

I caught a little bit of an interview today with Trent Dilfer. While he is not as smooth on-the-air as some other former players, his insight and commentary always seems to be dead-on. Well, he had some insights about tonight's Packers/Vikings game...

He said that he spent all of last week studying the Packers, and he has concluded that they are not a very good team. He says our defense is awful, our linebackers are terrible in coverage, and that the task of switching from 4-3 to 3-4 is monumental.

As for tonight? Dilfer said he wouldn't be surprised to see Minnesota win by three touchdowns.

I felt uneasy about tonight's game before. Now I'm scared.

A Quick Look Back at Sunday

Week Four is almost completely in the books. Of course, the most important game remains to be played, but the rest of the league has completed its work.

The Lions kept it close in Chicago for the first half, but beginning with the opening kickoff of the second half, the wheels came off for Detroit. Last week's win against Washington got the monkey off their backs, to be sure, but it didn't represent an end to their futility. They've quickly laid claim to their special place at the bottom of the Division. And next week they get the Steelers.

And, speaking of futility, how 'bout them Rams?! St. Louis was completely shellacked by San Francisco, and now they get to play the Vikings next Sunday. That's no good for the Rams, and that's no good for us!

Futility also continues in Kansas City, where the visiting Giants embarrassed the home team. Also in Cleveland, where the Derek Anderson-led Browns came VERY close to an upset, only to lose to the Bengals at the last possible moment of overtime. Tampa Bay, likewise, can't seem to buy a win. They kept it close against the Redskins but, as they say, "close" only counts in horeshoes and grenades. And then, finally, there is the curious case of the Tennessee Titans.

The Titans may be the biggest single surprise of the 2009 season. These guys had the best record in the NFL during 2008, and now they are winless. I thought they played well in their first couple of losses. And, you recall, they were the one team to beat us in the preseason. But now to be 0-4, with the most recent loss being a blowout loss to the mediocre Jaguars?! The Detroit Lions have a better record than the Tennessee Titans. Ugly stuff in Tennessee.

Elsewhere, the Steelers and Patriots reasserted themselves as the class of the AFC with significant wins over the Chargers and Ravens, respectively. Perhaps if the Chargers had arrived in Pittsburgh on time (they didn't really show up until well into the second half) they could have made a game of it. The Ravens, meanwhile, were pretty close to upsetting the Patriots at home. One senses that these two teams will see each other again in January.

Meanwhile, the teams with the very best records in the AFC are the Colts (not surprising) and the Broncos (very surprising). Did any team have an uglier off-season than Denver? There was nothing about that debacle that could have led one to believe that they would jump out to a 4-0 start.

Finally, in the NFC, the Saints had a statement win against the up-and-coming Jets. The New Orleans offense was somewhat muted by an effective New York defensive scheme, but the Saints' defense suddenly asserted themselves.

Still, the most interesting story of the football weekend remains to be written. We'll all be watching tonight!

Saturday's Sign?

It's a weekend-long border war here in New Scandanavia. Before the Packers head to Minnesota on Monday Night, the Badgers played in Minesota on Saturday afternoon.

Even in that college football setting, there was an awareness of the larger pro football context. For, lo and behold, what was the Golden Gopher mascot wearing? A #4 Vikings jersey!

The disconnect between the two contests, I'm afraid, is in the running game. The Badgers were able to run the ball on Minnesota, including one of those pound-'em drives in the late 3rd and early 4th quarter for a touchdown and a two-score lead. That was a real thing of beauty: real in-the-trenches football. Wisconsin kept lining up and running it down Minnesota's throat, which is a demoralizing thing for a defense.

And then, even after that terrible fumble that the Golden Gophers ran back for a touchdown, the Badgers were still able to come back and chew up the clock -- as well as yardage. Plus the back-breaking runs by the QB and RB to make it a 10-point lead again.

This, however, is what I'm afraid the Packers cannot do against the Vikings.

There's a restaurant I used to frequent that had a great wall-sized photograph of an old Packers patented power sweep. It's a thing of beauty: a football work of art. Thurston and Kramer out front, looking like a couple of nimble bulldozers. And Jimmy Taylor churning along behind, one strong arm cradling the football, and the other extended, ready to push away any defender that might be left in the pulling guards' wake.

For all of McCarthy's "establish the run" rhetoric, I just don't see it. I don't see the development of the kind of power running game that can pick up five yards whenever it needs to; the kind of running game that can control the clock; the kind of running game that other teams are afraid of; the kind of running game that leaves the defense bent over with their hands on their knees. Make that happen, and I believe the current QB, receivers, and defense will get you to the Super Bowl. Without that consistent ground game, however, the rest of the team is left vulnerable.

Setting the Packers aside for the moment, however... The Badgers are a surprising 5-0 now! And we're just one of three unbeatens in Conference plan in the Big Ten.

Of course, next Saturday we go to Columbus. But, for now, it's all good!

Sweet Tooth

They say that revenge is sweet, but now Brett Favre is denying that he has a sweet tooth.

SI.com recently published a report that Favre denied any revenge motivation going into Monday Night's game. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/football/nfl/10/01/favre.ap/index.html

I'm sorry to hear it, personally, because Favre showing up Ted Thompson will be the only solace I will take from a Packer loss!

Week Four -- A Look Ahead

The Packers enter Week Four tied for second (though with a head-to-head edge over the Bears) in the NFC North, one game behind the 3-0 Vikings. It's possible that we will come out of this football weekend at the top of our Division, or it's possible that we could end the weekend at the bottom.

It's all intramural for the NFC North this week, as the Vikings host the Packers and as the Lions travel to Chicago.

Packers at Vikings

This is the game Ted Thompson didn't want to see happen. This is what he worked so hard to avoid -- even to preclude -- a year ago. But now it is the Monday Night Nightmare for all the world to see: Brett Favre in purple playing AGAINST the Green Bay Packers.

For the world of TV ratings, of course, this couldn't have worked out any better. The Packers first game against Favre's Vikings is in Minnesota on a Monday Night. That will be a natural draw because it's the first contest. But then the second game will be just as compelling -- perhaps more so -- for it will be billed as Brett's return to Green Bay.

Apart from the soap opera elements, there is the actual game itself, and I'm concerned about it.

They say that the game is won or lost at the line of scrimmage, and I believe it. So while offensive guards and defensive tackles are not hounded by autograph-seekers, overwhelmed by endorsement offers, and carefully tracked by fantasy leaguers, I think those are the guys who are going to make the difference on Monday Night. We can talk about Favre vs. Rodgers, the wonders of Adrian Peterson, and the explosiveness of the Packer receiving corps, but it's the superiority of the Vikings' front lines on offense and defense that are going to win this game for Minnesota.

I am not a pro scout. I don't know for a fact that they have more talent up front than we do. I just know that, to-date, Minnesota's guys are performing well and Green Bay's guys are not. If the Packer coaching staff can turn that around over a long week, great. That's not my expectation, however.

That said, here is my positive take... If it was an all-passing game, and if Brett and Aaron got exactly the same protection -- good or bad -- on Monday Night, I'd like Rodgers and his receivers to score more on the Viking DBs than Favre and his crowd to score on ours.

But, that's not how the game is played. Monday Night will not be a 7-on-7 drill. Accordingly, I see the Vikings cruising to 4-0, while the Packers head into their bye at 2-2.

Lions at Bears

We know that Detroit is a better team in 2009 than they were in 2008. But how much better? I'm guessing that they are still not good enough to go on the road and beat the Bears. And so, while I was rather happy for them finally to break their terrible streak last Sunday and get a win, I think their euphoria will be short-lived. If the Lions should happen to win, however, it's going to be one really bunched-up Division!


Elsewhere...

Elsewhere around the league, there is a wealth of really fascinating games to watch.

A few of the games are interesting to watch the way that it's interesting to slow down and look at an accident. The winless Buccaneer's trip to visit the reeling Redskins will be a certain kind of interesting. Likewise, the resurgent Bengals' trip to the Dawg Pound, where they desperately need a win. And, finally, there is going to be something perversely interesting about the Giants-Chiefs game: 3-0 against 0-3.

Meanwhile, there are these other truly compelling match-ups of good teams...

On paper, the best match-up may be the Jets' trip to New Orleans. Both teams are 3-0 and atop their divisions. New York and their new franchise QB are taking everyone by surprise. New Orleans, meanwhile, was expected to be good, but perhaps not this good. The Saints have outscored the next most prolific team (Baltimore) by 17 points over the first three weeks of the young season. I wouldn't want to have to put money on this game -- but I would love to watch it!

Meanwhile, the 2-1 Chargers head to Pittsburgh, where the defending Super Bowl champs are a surprising 1-2, third place in their division, and 2 games below the mighty potent-looking Ravens. The Chargers are assumed to be among the AFC elites, but it's hard to imagine the mentally tough and battle-tested Steelers losing this one at home and falling to 1-3 on the season after winning the whole enchillada.

And, speaking of the Ravens, they're taking their perfect record into New England this Sunday for what is arguably the best game of a whole week of great games. Baltimore has outscored their opponents so far by an astonishing 103-53 margin. But, as with the Steelers above, it's hard to imagine the Patriots losing this one at home. Still, one wonder if, on this uncommon Sunday, New England may not be the best team on the field.

Children of a Divorce

As we approach the dreaded day, let us give some thought to our pain.

As Packer fans, you and I are the children in a divorce, and that's a certain brand of pain. The children, you know, are not the major players either in the marriage or in the divorce, yet they are profoundly impacted by both. The children are the beneficiaries of a good relationship between the husband and wife, and the children are the victims of a bad one.

And, in the case of a divorce, the children are the sad casualties, hopelessly frustrated by how their lives are changed and their loyalties divided, yet all without having any say for themselves.

Enter the summer of 2008.

Of course, the problems could be traced back further -- they always can -- but that was when it all finally unraveled. Ted Thompson was the one spouse; Brett Favre the other. And by the end of that ugly, "he said, he said" summer of stubbornness, blame, selfishness, and insecurity, they had decided to go their separate ways.

After so many years of bliss in Green Bay, now Brett was going to live in New York. And we, the shocked and broken-hearted children, who had no say in the divorce, were left to spend our weekends shuttling back and forth between our old home and our new one. We wore two shades of green all season, and we tried to live a double-life as football fans.

Well, that New York marriage didn't last long. That was okay with us -- we never really fell in love with that new home or family. We had just begun to learn the names.

But now look at what has happened! Brett has gone and married that awful neighbor woman! The one we've lived next to -- and hated -- all these years. He used to hate her, too, remember? What happened? When did they start making eyes at each other? When did he start liking her?

We saw Darren Sharper go there, and that bothered us. Same thing for Ryan Longwell. But Brett?! The divorce was something of a betrayal, to be sure, but this remarriage is of a whole different magnitude.

And now we have to go and spend the weekend over there -- and see him with her, on her side! Ah, Monday is the dreaded day.