See You in December

Well, with a long break before the Ravens visit to Lambeau, the Packers don't play again until Sunday, December 6th. And that suddenly makes the remainder of the season seem rather short.

So with just 5 weeks left in the regular season, what are the chances that the Packers will still be playing 6 weeks from now?

Happily -- perhaps surprsingly -- we begin from a position of strength: namely, if the season were to end today, we'd be in the playoffs as one of the NFC wild card teams. In theory, therefore, all we have to do is keep winning, and we're in. We control our own destiny. We don't yet need anyone else to win or lose.

And what are the prospects for the Packers to just keep winning?

Well, first, we host the (5-5) Baltimore Ravens. Personally, while I am unaccustomed to rooting for the Pittsburgh Steelers, they'll be my team of choice on Sunday Night when they visit Baltimore. I think that if the Ravens come into Lambeau at 5-6, they'll have so little realistic hope of making a playoff run that we'll enjoy a large "something to play for" advantage. That, plus home field, plus additional rest, should be enough to carry the day.

Then we hit the road to play the (4-6) Bears followed by the defending champion (6-4) Steelers. I am seriously concerned about two consecutive losses on this road trip. I know that the Bears have turned into a train wreck in 2009, but our recent record against them has been uneven, and Lovie Smith has made beating the Packers a personal priority. Meanwhile, the Steelers are not the team they were in 2008, and I think that if we play our best game we would win. Still, I'm not convinced that we'll beat these guys -- not in Heinz Field, without Al Harris, with so much at stake for Pittsburgh. We'll give a closer analysis to both of these games when they roll around. From this distance, though, I'm projecting an 8-6 record for the Pack when we host the Seattle Seahawks.

I believe we'll beat Seattle, carrying a 9-6 record into our final game.

We finish the season at the (7-3) Cardinals. My expectation is that, by that time, the Cardinals will have won their Division, but the Saints and Vikings will have locked up the top two seeds in the NFC. Accordingly, I see the Cardinals resting a lot of their guys in anticipation of a playoff game the following week. I'm not sure we could beat them at full strength on the road, but I do believe we will beat an Arizona team with nothing to play for in Week 17.

Accordingly, I am presently predicting a 10-6 finish for the 2009 Packers. If we make that threshhold, then I see us winning one of the wild card spots.

We'll keep updating these projections as events unfold.