If Football Were Math…

If football were math, then the team that has the #1 ranked defense and the #2 ranked offense in the entire NFL would be the top seed going into their Conference’s playoffs.  Instead, the San Diego Chargers will be on the outside looking in when the postseason begins.  Strange.

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If football were math, and the goal was to outscore one’s opponents over the season rather than just one game at a time, then the Packers would be ranked #1 in the NFC.  Green Bay enjoys a larger margin of net points than any team in the league other than the Patriots.  New England has 174 net points (i.e., points scored minus points scored against), while Green Bay has 141.  The next nearest total in the NFC is Atlanta at 105.  The Division rival Bears sport a measly 55 points. 

For the sake of comparison, the worst net points margin in the NFL belongs to the 2-13 Panthers, who have been outscored by a total of 191 points!

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If football were math, Aaron Rodgers would not only be going to the Pro Bowl, he would arguably be the NFC’s starting quarterback.

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If football were math, no one from the NFC West would make the playoffs.

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And if football were math, then the Packers would beat the Bears by 28 points this Sunday in Lambeau.

How do I figure?  Well, I am basing it on both teams’ performances against the most recent common opponent: the New England Patriots.

N = C + H + 29

N - H = G + 4 

[In the above equations, N = New England; G = Green Bay; C = Chicago; H = Home Field (which is generally regarded as worth 3 points); and the numbers represent the margin of victory of the Patriots over the Bears (“C”) and the Packers (“G”), respectively.]

So, if my memory of algebra is correct, and if football were math, then the Packers would beat the Bears by 28 points this coming Sunday in Lambeau. 

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Chicago Bears,San Diego Chargers,Aaron Rodgers,New England Patriots

Follow-Up

I have seen a couple of other pieces come out that follow up on things we have blogged about recently.

First, when the guys at NFL.com reflected on Pro Bowl roster snubs, the first name they mentioned was Aaron Rodgers.  I think they are right, of course, and neither their commentary nor my indignation changes anything.  Still, it’s cathartic to listen to. 

Meanwhile, in the wake of the Eagles’ stunning loss at home to the Minnesota Vikings on Tuesday Night, you can see that people are starting to jump off the Vick bandwagon just a bit -- or at least distance themselves from it.  Andrew Perloff at SI.com made these pointed observations about Vick’s game:

Teams are starting to focus on harassing Vick so he doesn't have time to make long throws to DeSean Jackson. And they know Andy Reid isn't going to turn to the running game to take pressure off Vick.

The Giants were successful at disrupting Vick's rhythm for three quarters last week. The Vikings did an even better job rushing Vick and making sure he didn't have time to find receivers. Minnesota sacked Vick six times and hit him hard on several scrambles.

Not surprisingly, Vick's numbers have begun to dip. He didn't throw an interception in his first seven games. He's thrown six in his last five games, and should have had at least two more Tuesday. Vikings defenders Lito Sheppard and Frank Walker dropped near-perfect interception opportunities.

The turnovers could pose a problem in the wild-card round. The Eagles will likely play the Packers or Giants -- two teams that can get after the quarterback. New York's defense would be eager to get another shot at Vick. And Green Bay would have a much better game plan than it did in Week 1, when Vick shined as Kevin Kolb's replacement.

Looking down the road, the Eagles have to worry about making a sizeable investment in a 29-year-old quarterback who will always take off downfield --despite his improvement as a pocket passer. And Vick showed once again he doesn't know how to slide or get rid of the ball to avoid a hit.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/andrew_perloff/12/29/vikings.eagles.insider/index.html#ixzz19WdFwAYS

Furthermore, on ESPN2’s “First and Ten,” Skip Bayless was making the argument that Vick has actually regressed.  While others were saying that of course he could not maintain the level and pace with which he began the season, Bayless was insisting that Vick has taken steps backwards -- poor reads, antsy in the pocket, too many turnovers, etc.  

In the rest of life, they say that you can’t fight city hall.  In Pro Bowl voting, though, it seems that you can’t fight hype. 

Technorati Tags: Aaron Rodgers,Michael Vick,Pro Bowl

Vikings 24 -- Eagles 14

In 2003, Rush Limbaugh infamously argued that the hype surrounding Donovan McNabb at the time was partly born of a public interest in having a black quarterback succeed in the NFL. 

Now, seven years later, a different black quarterback in Philadelphia is all the rage in the NFL.  In just a matter of months, Michael Vick has successfully played himself from one of the most hated men in the NFL into the Pro Bowl, and even into the MVP conversation (though most observers seem to think the award will go to Tom Brady this year). 

The similarity to McNabb’s situation, it seems to me, is this: Is Michael Vick truly as good as all the current hype suggests he is? 

In commenting on the NFC Pro Bowl roster in my previous post, I noted that Vick, Brees, and Ryan are all going to the honorary game ahead of our Aaron Rodgers, even though Rodgers is statistically ahead of each of them in various ways. 

Meanwhile, Jerome Bettis’ enthusiasm for Vick recently spilled over into a declaration that the Eagles are the best team in the entire NFC!   Bettis seems to have jumped the gun a bit on that, though.  Or else we have to modify his thesis… That is, the Eagles are the best team in the NFC so long as they don’t have to face the mighty Vikings with their sub-.500 record, their interim coach, and their second-string quarterback.  That daunting challenge was just too much for the vaunted Vick and his soaring Eagles at home on Tuesday Night Football.

Philly lost to the Vikings by 10 points.  Understand that that margin is greater than the margin by which the Packers have lost any two games this season combined!

Minnesota did two Division rivals a great favor with their astonishing, who-saw-that-coming victory.  They guaranteed the Chicago Bears a first-round bye in the NFC Playoffs, which means that the Bears have less to play for when the come to Lambeau on Sunday.  Indeed, the only thing they have to play for now is the remote possibility of being the #1 seed overall in the NFC, but that would require losses by the Falcons and Saints, and both of those games will be concluded by the time the Bears and Packers take the field on Sunday afternoon. 

Of course, Green Bay needs to be able to beat the Bears even with a lot on the line for them, just as they did the Giants last Sunday.  But, still, it’s nice to know that all the urgency will be on our side of the field for three hours late on the final Sunday of the 2010 NFL season.

Technorati Tags: Michael Vick,Philadelphia Eagles,Chicago Bears,Minnesota Vikings,NFC Playoffs,Rush Limbaugh,Donovan McNabb

A Thing of Beauty

A few weeks ago, I suggested that the Packers’ performance was ugly in every way.  This past Sunday’s performance against the Giants, by contrast, was all kinds of beautiful.

Well, perhaps not all kinds.  Special Teams was still nothing to write home about.

But every other phase of the game was a marvel.  The defense was stellar, holding the Giants to just 90 yards on the ground, keeping them to a shabby 4-of-12 3rd down efficiency, picking off 4 of Eli Manning’s passes, and gobbling up a fumble. 

Better still, the offense.  New York came in with the #2 ranked overall defense in the NFL.  If this were Week 4 or so, that might not be so significant a statistic.  But we’ve come near the very end of the season, and so that is a well-earned ranking.  But Green Bay ended with a 14-minute time-of-possession advantage over New York, putting up over 500 yards of offense against the G-men, including 4 TD passes by Aaron Rodgers. 

Rodgers earned a 139.9 passer rating on Sunday against that #2 defense, which invites consideration of a couple of other matters. 

First, Wikipedia.org includes this fun fact about our wonderful starting quarterback:

Through Week 16 of the 2010-11 NFL season, Rodgers' career passer rating (98.6) ranks first all-time among NFL quarterbacks with at least 1,500 passing attempts.

Meanwhile, focusing in on Sunday’s game itself, ESPN.com includes a report that offers some perspective on Aaron Rodgers' performance. Fascinating!  Not bad for a guy that folks were worried about because he might be a little off his game after his second concussion of the season.

For all of that, however, Rodgers has not been included on the NFC’s Pro Bowl team.  The Pro Bowl rosters have been published, and while the Packers have 5 players that made the cut, Rodgers is not among them.  He has been beaten out by Michael Vick, Matt Ryan, and Drew Brees. 

Ranked by Passer Rating, Rodgers is #4 in the entire league, behind only Brady, Rivers, and Vick.  Brees shows up at #10, and Ryan at a very average #15.  When ranked by passing yards, Rodgers is #7, while Ryan is #11 and Vick is #22.  And when ranked by TD passes, Rodgers is tied for 6th, while Ryan is 8th and Vick is tied for 16th. 

But I’m sure there is some good reason why these other three guys got in ahead of Aaron.  I’ll have to think about what that reason might be. 

Hmmm…  Hmmm… 

‘Guess I’ll have to think some more.  I’ll get back to you!

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,New York Giants,Aaron Rodgers,Drew Brees,Michael Vick,Pro Bowl,Matt Ryan

Merry Christmas!

The angel told the shepherds not to be afraid.  That is something of a recurring theme in the Bible, you know.  I have heard that, across the pages of Scripture, God tells folks not to be afraid over 300 different times!

Then, reassuringly, the angel said, “I bring you good news of great joy, which shall be to all people.  For unto you is born this day in the city of David a Savior, which is Christ the Lord.”

I am thinking today about the good news for “all people.”  I’m thinking about this God, who was not at all parochial, sending His Son only to and for the people of Israel.  This God, who was not at all discriminating, sending His Son only for the righteous or the deserving.  This God, who was not at all exclusive, sending His Son only for the best and the brightest.  No, He had good news which was meant for all people.

I’m thinking about “all people” because Google provides me with a report of the assorted locations where people read this blog.  During the past month, we have had readers from the United States, Canada, Russia, South Korea, the Netherlands, Germany, Slovenia, Latvia, Croatia, and Bangladesh.  Amazing! 

And so, naturally, I am thinking about all people today.  And I want to step aside from the transient and trivial stuff of football long enough to echo the angel -- to say that our God has great good news that He means for all people.  It is the news of a Savior and Lord, who was born to you this day in the city of David.   

Week Sixteen Preview

Christmas weekend football!  It doesn’t have quite the same ring as Thanksgiving weekend does, but as the penultimate weekend in the regular season, it is more consequential.

The Christmas Day itself is something of a disappointment.  No doubt the NFL was counting on both the Cowboys and Cardinals to be playoff hopefuls at this point in the season.  Both teams have been real disappointments, however -- especially to their fans!  As the 2010 season winds down, however, they are two teams headed in different directions.  I expect the rejuvenated Cowboys to continue their momentum and pick up the win on the road… not that it will matter to anyone. 

For Packer fans, only one game really matters this weekend. 

What the Bears do no longer matters to us, unless we want to dig into the psychological calculus about “if this” and “if that” pertaining to how much Chicago has to play for when they come to Green Bay in Week 17.  The Eagles, the Saints, the Bucs, blah, blah, blah -- none of it really matters to us. 

Instead, it has come down to this painfully simple calculation.  If the Packers win their final two games, they’re in.  At 10-6,they’ll claim the final playoff spot in the NFC.  If they lose this Sunday to the visiting Giants, however, that’s it.  They’re out.  Cue the fat lady.  The party's over. 

Now, there are a number of interesting games on the slate this weekend for football fans.  The Bears and Eagles are jockeying for position as the #2 seed, and so their games against the Jets and Vikings respectively should be good viewing.  The Bucs-Seahawks and the Rams-49ers are both games with huge playoff implications for the teams involved.  And, of course, the Monday Night tilt between the Saints and Falcons should be great! 

But the piece de resistance in the NFL in Week 17 is also the game that matters most to us.  It’s a classic scene that could have been carved out of the 1960s.  The New York football Giants come to Lambeau Field at the end of December to play the Packers on the frozen tundra with the playoffs on the line.  The stakes are huge.  If the Giants win, they’re in.  If the Packers lose, they’re out.

No definitive word yet about Aaron Rodgers.  Regardless of the QB that starts, though, this is a game that will be won or lost in the trenches.  Can our D-line slow down the Giants’ running game?  And can our O-line protect against New York’s bloodthirsty rush?  Neither Rodgers nor Flynn can win the game while on the bench or on their backs. 

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,New York Giants,NFL Playoffs

Musings of a Schizophrenic Fan

I have always been rather slow about processing my feelings.  Typically, however, I’m much quicker about figuring out what I think.  Not so, however, in the case of the astonishing Sunday Night Football game between the Packers and the Patriots.  What I have to share here, therefore, is what the several different voices inside my heard are staying today…

 

The Fan on the Ledge

What on earth is the matter with this team?  Why can't McCarthy win a close one?  Why haven’t we been able to come from behind in the 4th quarter to win a single game this season?  Why can't get special teams get it right?

Every team has losses, I know, and every observer expected the Packers and their first-time-starter QB to lose on the road against the best team in the NFL.  But NO TEAM has ever let a lineman return a kickoff for 71 yards!  And I daresay that no team that allows such a performance has much hope of making it to the playoffs.  Or, if they do happen to make it, then they have no hope in the playoffs. 

The irony is that we should have won that game last night.  In so many respects, we actually outplayed New England.  And we let it get away.  Just as we let the game get away from us in Detroit last Sunday.  Just as we let the game get away from us against Chicago early in the season. 

And one little disaster at a time, we have let this whole promising season get away from us.

 

The Dispassionate Realist

The Packers came into New England as 14-point road underdogs against a great opponent.  They played admirably, but they made too many mistakes to beat such a quality team in their own building.  We dropped potential game-changing interceptions.  Our green QB made a critical error with his pick-six early in the second half.  And the special teams debacle on that kickoff late in the first half, when momentum was squarely in the Packers’ corner, was exactly the sort of thing you can’t get away with against an excellent opponent. 

Simply put, the Packers played and lost to an excellent opponent.  And inasmuch as home field is generally reckoned as a 3-point advantage, to lose by 4 to the Patriots is a pretty good show.

 

The Starry-Eyed Optimist

We have a bona fide back-up!  Matt Flynn looks like a great draft pick now, and we don’t have to worry about handing the ball over to him when circumstances require it.  

We have a bona fide running game when the coach decides to commit to it.  Clearly apprehensive about putting the game entirely in the new QB’s hands, McCarthy called as many running plays as passing plays last night in New England, and the team performed excellently, with Jackson racking up 99 good yards on 22 carries. 

Furthermore, the Giants lost and the Buccaneers lost, and so we’re just one game out of the 6th seed, with a game against that 6th seed coming up this Sunday on our home turf!

We have two games left, and they’re both at Lambeau. Rodgers will almost certainly be back for those games.  And if we win them both, we’ll almost certainly make the postseason. 

 

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,New England Patriots,New York Giants,Matt Flynn,NFL Playoffs

Week Fifteen Preview

Well, three weeks to go, and there is so much on the line now with every game…

First, in a quick emotional turnaround, we are now officially Detroit Lion fans.  They travel to Florida this Sunday to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  On the one hand, the Bucs still haven’t beaten a team with a winning record.  On the other hand, Detroit doesn’t have a winning record.  I think it is plausible for this up-and-coming Lions squad to pull it off.  We surely need them to!

Meanwhile, the Eagles head up I-95 to play the New York Giants.  Both teams are knotted up at 9-4 atop the NFC North.  We have already beaten the Eagles and have opportunity to beat the Giants next week.  I don’t see a strong reason to prefer one of these over the other because if we end up tied with one of these guys for the final wild card berth, it will come down to the head-to-head tie-breaker.  It’s hard to imagine a path to the playoffs for us that doesn’t include a win over New York next week, but since we’ve already bagged the Eagles, I guess I’ll cheer for the Giants to win the game, win their division, and leave Philly as the team for us to compete with for the wild card.

Perhaps the most important game to us is the Monday Night Football game somewhere in Minnesota.  If the Packers lose to the Patriots (which is easy to imagine) on Sunday Night and the Bears beat the Vikings on Monday Night, then Chicago gets the NFC North title.  Yuck.  In light of our own extremely challenging match-up this week, therefore, we badly need Minnesota to get its act together enough to take out the Bears for us.

Finally, the reeling Packers head to New England this Sunday.  I don’t hate the Patriots (well, I did when Moss was there).  In fact, ever since their upset of the highly favored “greatest show on turf” back in Super Bowl XXXVI, I have generally admired the way they do things there.  New England is playing like the best team in the league right now, and so it’s hard to envision the Packers going in there and upsetting them at home on national TV.

As the playoffs approach (and we perhaps don’t have much to write about concerning the Packers anymore), I will give fuller expression to my admiration for New England and why I may root for them against most challengers.  For the present, however, they are Public Enemy #1 -- or at least for three hours this Sunday Night. 

To our benefit, the Patriots have already clinched a playoff berth (the only team in the NFL so far), they have a 2-game lead in their own division, and they have the inside track on #1 seed in the AFC.  Plus, the Packers are an out-of-Conference opponent.  In short, this is hardly a must-win game for the Pats.

On the other hand, they seem to be the consummate professionals, which is part of what I appreciate about them.  And so I fully expect them to give us their best game, which is an intimidating prospect.

The only way to beat them, it seems to me, is to keep their offense off the field with long, sustained offensive drives of our own.  I know we’re capable of that, last Sunday’s performance in Detroit notwithstanding.  And then, when their offense is on the field, I’d say that we have to put mega-pressure on Brady.  They don’t have a deep threat, and so I wouldn’t mind seeing the Packers blitz and leave our cover guys on man-to-man islands.  Better to try to get in Brady’s face than to watch him dink-and-dunk his way into the end zone for 10 plays and 7 minutes every time they get the ball.

Green Bay’s defense has not been really overwhelmed by anyone this season.  And while it’s hard for me to predict that we’ll win this game, I also can’t see New England hanging 35 or 40 points on us like they have their last several other victims.  Of course, they may not need 35 points.  Detroit got it done against us with just 7.

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,New England Patriots,Chicago Bears,Minnesota Vikings,New York Giants,Philadelphia Eagles,Tampa Bay Buccaneers,Detroit Lions,NFL Playoffs,NFC North

Berth Day Wishes

I didn’t expect us to come to Week 15 with such slim playoff hopes. It is what it is, though, and so let’s unpack the situation the Packers find themselves in with three weeks left in the regular season.

In the NFC playoff race, there is no team behind us that can overtake us for a playoff spot.  We do have teams behind us that may make the playoffs, mind you, but only because they are members of the pathetic NFC West and are competing for that Division title.  We may very well sit at home this postseason with a better record than the champion of that Division.

In any case, we don’t have to look over our shoulder at any team that is behind us -- we only need to watch the teams that are ahead of us. At this moment, the Conference seedings look like this:

Atlanta Falcons	11	2	in
Chicago Bears	9	4	in
Philadelphia Eagles	9	4	in
St. Louis Rams	6	7	in
New Orleans Saints	10	3	in
New York Giants	9	4	in
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8	5	out
Green Bay Packers	8	5	out

So, given the present state of affairs, what are we hoping for?

There are 6 playoff spots -- 4 division titles and 2 wild card berths -- and we are theoretically eligible for 3 of the 6 (i.e., the NFC North title or the 2 wild card positions).  In reality, however, one of the wild card spots is going to go to whichever powerhouse from the NFC South does not win that division -- either the Falcons or the Saints.  We have no realistic chance of catching either of them, which leaves us with just 2 options: win our Division or grab the remaining wild card spot.  And with a loss to the Patriots this Sunday and a Chicago victory in Minnesota, the Division would no longer be an option, which would leave us clinging to one wild card possibility.  (Pretty sad for a team that entered the season as a nearly unanimous Super Bowl pick!)

To win the Division, of course, means getting past the Bears.  To claim the final wild card spot means ending ahead of the Buccaneers and either the Giants or the Eagles.  Happily, we have already beaten the Eagles and we have opportunity to beat the Giants on our own turf.  Also, we still get to play the Bears in Lambeau.  So, in many respects, we still hold much of our fate in our own hands. 

And if only we had somehow scored a measly 8 points in Detroit on Sunday, we’d actually be in very good shape.

The Bears play at Minnesota, home against the Jets, and at Green Bay.  I can imagine them losing to the Jets and the Pack.  It’s hard to imagine the quarterback-less and hopeless Vikings getting the job done now, but we need them to do it in order to weaken the Bears’ record in the Division.

The Giants host the Eagles this weekend, followed by trips to Green Bay and Washington.  It’s hard to picture them losing to the luckless Redskins, but I can certainly see them going 0-2 before then.

The Eagles, meanwhile, visit the Giants, followed by home games against the Vikings and Cowboys.  That could be a sweep for Philly.  The only problem for them is that I think Vick’s speed advantage is somewhat diminished in outdoor winter games, which all three of these promise to be.

Finally, the Buccaneers, which on paper are the easiest team to catch, have the easiest schedule.  They host the Lions and Seahawks, followed by a trip to New Orleans on January 2nd, at which point the Saints may already have their position settled.  

The Packers, meanwhile, have the toughest road of all: visiting the white hot Patriots, followed by games at home against the Giants and Bears.  Three playoff teams in a row, all in bad weather, all without a running game, and some of them perhaps without our starting quarterback. 

Boy, I wish McCarthy had made a better decision on 4th-and-1.

 

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Chicago Bears,New York Giants,Philadelphia Eagles,Tampa Bay Buccaneers,NFC North,NFL Playoffs

Neck-and-Neck with the Bears, v.5

Well, after a week of overhearing the insufferable enthusiasm and confidence of Bears’ fans on Chicago sports talk radio, the late afternoon game on Sunday was a genuine pleasure to watch.  And, after the painful early game in Detroit, it was particularly therapeutic for me to see the Bears lose.  After all, the Packers just loss their game.  The Bears were humiliated. 

Unfortunately, the Bears’ debacle has been somewhat mollified for them by the Packers’ misfortune.  I hear their fans saying that the loss to New England is no big deal since: (a) it was an AFC opponent, and so it doesn’t factor into tie-breakers; and (b) the Packers lost, and so the Bears maintain their lead and have an added edge in the tie-breakers because of a better record in the Division.

Alas!  We did indeed lose a very important game on Sunday.  And what with the Buccaneers, Eagles, Saints, and Giants all winning this weekend, we are in a very difficult position.  At a minimum, we need to win our three remaining games, which is a tall order by itself.  And yet, even if we win all three and end at 11-5, we still might miss the playoffs unless we get help from the Bears and others.

I said last week that, in spite of their lead over the Packers, I would rather be a Green Bay fan than a Chicago fan.  Now the lay of the land has changed.  As I look at the current standings and the weeks to come, I have to admit that the Bears are in a more favorable position.  (And that’s without even mentioning the uncertainty of Aaron Rodgers’ status!)

Week	Packers (8-5)	Bears (9-4)
15	at Patriots (11-2)	at Vikings (5-8)
16	Giants (9-4)	Jets (9-4)
17	Bears (9-4)	at Packers (8-5)
Records	(29-10)	(22-17)

In Apollo 13,there’s that somber moment when the crew members have received certain instructions from Mission Control, and Capt. Jim Lovell realizes what has happened.  He grimly says to his partners, “We just lost the moon.”

Perhaps, as the Packers walked off the field late Sunday afternoon, they realized what had just happened, and said to one another, “We just lost the season.”

We shall see.

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Chicago Bears,NFC North,NFL Playoffs,Detroit Lions,New England Patriots,Apollo 13

What Others Are Saying

I enjoy reading Don Banks of Sports Illustrated, and I generally find his analysis to be very informative and insightful.  I was pleased, therefore, to see that he had written so much specifically about the Packers in his breakdown of Sunday’s action around the NFL.  (You can read the whole column here.)

I found, however, that I was not in complete agreement with his analysis of Green Bay’s performance and situation.

Specifically, I think he is too hard on Matt Flynn:

I guess we all got a vivid lesson on how valuable Aaron Rodgers is to the Packers. True, Rodgers didn't make much happen when he was in the game Sunday in Detroit. But with him sidelined from the second quarter on with his second concussion of the season, the Packers offense was mostly anemic in the hands of backup quarterback Matt Flynn, who was at the wheel for the rest of Green Bay's damaging 7-3 loss.

And, later…

The Packers like backup quarterback Flynn's potential, but until Sunday, they never had to ask him to win a game. Now they have, and the former LSU standout couldn't come through, finishing 15 of 26 for 177 yards and one interception in leading Green Bay to only one field goal in six possessions. Flynn ended his best drive with a hugely costly interception to Lions middle linebacker DeAndre Levy in the end zone, when the game was 3-0 Green Bay and there for the taking.

Peter King arrives at the same conclusion more succinctly:

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay. Saw his value pretty well when he was concussed and the Pack had to try to limp through a bad day with Matt Flynn. And couldn't.

And, on NFL.com, Pat Kirwan adds his voice to the chorus:

In a matter of minutes, the Packers went from a true playoff contender to a team that couldn't beat the Detroit Lions with backup Matt Flynn under center. With Aaron Rodgers out of the game due to a concussion, the Packers generated one field goal in the loss to Detroit.

Now I certainly don’t dispute the importance of Aaron Rodgers.  I am a huge Rodgers fan, as I think I have faithfully reflected in this blog.  But I disagree with the thesis statement that “we all got a vivid lesson on how valuable (he) is to the Packers.”  The whole offense was utterly ineffective against the Lions on Sunday, and we didn’t play substantially better with Rodgers in than with Flynn.  In fact, I was favorably impressed by Flynn under the circumstances. 

Flynn’s interception in the end zone was deadly, to be sure, and it will be remembered because we lost.  But he had managed to get the team into that red zone position in the first place.  He got them into position for their lone field goal.  And he had them moving in for the kill again at the end of the game.  He failed to connect on the 4th-and-1 long pass, and maybe Rodgers would have made that completion.  But it was McCarthy’s call, and I would say that the play-caller was more at fault than the player. 

If we had been lighting it up with Rodgers on Sunday and then fell off the map with Flynn, I’d buy the conventional wisdom on this.  I  certainly think we have a better chance of winning in any given game with Rodgers under center than Flynn.  But I am inclined to resist the prevailing wind about Sunday’s game in Detroit.  Rodgers was generally ineffective when he was in, and I thought Flynn performed rather admirably under the circumstances. 

Meanwhile, I completely agree with Banks’ analysis of where we stand now:

Things are suddenly starting to look bleak for the Packers, the team I picked (for the second consecutive year) to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. After its 7-3 start, Green Bay (8-5) has lost two of three games, both on the road, in dome environments (Atlanta and Detroit).

This loss really puts the Packers' playoff hopes in some jeopardy, because with games at New England, and home against the Giants and Bears in the final three weeks, there will be no more soft touches on Green Bay's schedule. The Lions' upset was a boon for NFC playoff hopefuls like the Giants (8-4), Eagles (9-4), Bucs (8-5) and the NFC North-leading Bears (9-4), who despite their blowout loss at home to New England remain one game ahead of the Packers, plus own the head-to-head tiebreaker.

It’s not time to cue the proverbial ‘fat lady’ yet, but she may be warming up her vocal cords as the Packers play in New England next Sunday Night. 

 

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Detroit Lions,Aaron Rodgers,Matt Flynn,Don Banks,Peter King

Post Mortem

So that was all kinds of ugly, wasn’t it?

For starters, you’d like to have more points than turnovers.  But, no.  Three of each.

2 of 12 on 3rd down efficiency.  (Can you even use the word “efficiency” in that stat?)

Giving up 190 yards on the ground.

Losing to a 2-10 team.  Losing in the Division.  Losing the easiest of our remaining 4 games.  Losing Aaron Rodgers. 

All kinds of ugly.

After the whole weekend’s games are in the books, we’ll have a better sense of how costly this loss was in the bigger scheme of things.  For now, we’re simply cheering for the Patriots to beat the Bears, and for the Bears to injure about a dozen Patriots in the process.

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Detroit Lions,Chicago Bears,New England Patriots,Aaron Rodgers

Covering Over a Multitude of Sins

“Love covers a multitude of sins.” (1 Peter 4:8)

“Winning isn’t everything.  It’s the only thing.” (Vince Lombardi)

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Mike & Mike reported this morning that Michael Vick leads all Pro Bowl voting. Not long ago, he was the most hated man in the NFL.  Then he became, well, amazing.

Cam Newton just won the 2010 Heisman Award.  His season at Auburn has been nagged by controversy, yet his stellar play and his team’s undefeated record have shone through it all.

Meanwhile, I heard some sports radio talk guy hypothesizing the other day about Josh McDaniels’ firing.  He noted that Broncos’ owner Pat Bowlen was openly troubled by the cheating allegations while the Broncos were playing in London.  The radio guy was wondering -- cynically, but not unjustifiably -- how horrified by the whole affair Mr. Bowlen would have been if the Broncos had a .750 winning percentage and were atop the AFC West. 

The point is this… The Bible says that love covers over a multitude of sins.  And in sports, you see, we love winners.

Technorati Tags: Michael Vick,Cam Newton,Josh McDaniels,Heisman Trophy

Unknown Futures

With just four weeks to go in the regular season, the NFL has begun publishing the official playoff clinching scenarios.  Obviously, Green Bay is not in a position to clinch yet.  Only the Atlanta Falcons are so well-positioned in the NFC going into Week 14.

Interestingly, the New England Patriots can clinch a playoff spot this weekend if they beat the Bears.  There are other scenarios for them, as well, but I wonder if that extra bit of incentive might help them avoid the letdown game profile. 

Meanwhile, Dom Bonvissuto has updated his playoff projections, and he continues to be very bullish on the Packers.  He sees Green Bay winning out the remainder of their schedule, while he expects the Bears to drop three of their remaining four games!   He also envisions the Falcons dropping considerably in their seeding, and the Eagles missing out altogether.  Interesting stuff.

Just as Dom B. figures the Packers to win and the Bears to lose this weekend, so does Peter King.  Indeed, he’s very confident about Green Bay’s chances in Detroit.

Don Banks, meanwhile, also continues to be high on the Packers.  Going into the final quarter of the season, he figures that the Steelers or Patriots will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, and that the Packers or Falcons will win the NFC. 

The other football future that is being contemplated in the press today is Brett Favre’s.  No, it’s not the perennial question about whether he’ll retire or play again.  Rather, it’s the matter of his fate with the NFL in the case of Jenn Sterger.  According to her representative, Sterger will drop the whole case if Favre is suspended for his alleged actions.  (See also ESPN.com's story.) 

The investigation is just now reaching the commissioner’s desk.  How long will he take to decide?  Will his decision be appealed?  And how do you suspend a legend who is about to retire for, perhaps, the final game(s) of his career?

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Dom Bonvissuto,Don Banks,Chicago Bears,Philadelphia Eagles,Pittsburgh Steelers,New England Patriots,Jenn Sterger,Brett Favre,Peter King

Week Fourteen Preview

As the season enters its 4th quarter, a number of the games have a high level of importance for Packer fans.  The most significant, of course, is our own game in Detroit, to which we will return at the end.

Other games of interest, meanwhile, begin with the Bucs’ visit to Washington.  The Redskins have really become quite a disaster.  They have been tromped by both the Giants and the Eagles in recent weeks.  They lost to the Detroit Lions.  And they were single-handedly humiliated on national TV by Michael Vick.  It seems unlikely, therefore, that they’ll do us the favor of beating the Bucs.  Still, on any given Sunday…

Meanwhile, the aforementioned Giants travel to Minnesota to play the suddenly rejuvenated Vikings.  My logic remains the same as last week: namely, that we want the Vikings to feel invincible when the Bears come to town.  Consequently, I’d be rooting for them against almost anyone this week.  And all the more so against the Giants, who are part of the NFC wild card logjam. 

Also in that crowd are the Philadelphia Eagles, who will play the Cowboys in Dallas in a great Sunday Night Football match-up.  Naturally, I’m glad that Dallas was dysfunctional long enough to keep them out of the NFC hunt.  But now I am equally glad to see them reborn in time to knock the Eagles down a peg.  It should be a fascinating game.

Elsewhere, the surprising St. Louis Rams are clinging to a tiny lead in the NFC West.  They have to protect that lead in a tough setting, though, playing the defending champion Saints in New Orleans.  Naturally, we’ll be Rams’ fans on Sunday.  

The game of greatest interest to us besides our own, of course, is the Bears hosting the Patriots.  I really do not doubt that, if these two teams met in the Super Bowl, New England would find a way to win by 14 points.  On this week in this venue, however, I have my doubts. 

The Patriots are coming off an emotional win against their chief rival in the AFC East.  It’s a short week for them, they’re going on the road, and it’s a non-Conference game.  It’s the classic set-up for a letdown game.  At the same time, I think Belichick and Brady are such professional competitors that they don’t want to lose in December.  And so, if I had to put money on the game, I’d still go with New England.

Meanwhile, Brian Urlacher came out this week and said that, while New England has the best record, Chicago has the best team.  Big talk.  We shall see. 

Finally, the Packers head to Detroit to face the 2-10 Lions.  On paper, you’d think this would be a cakewalk.  But, no…

One indication of the serious threat that the 2010 Detroit Lions pose is their point differential.  A few weeks ago, the Wall Street Journal highlighted the Lions as the unluckiest team ever because of this dubious achievement:  “Never in NFL history has a team that outscored its opponents had such a bad record.”

At that point, the Lions were 2-7, yet had outscored their opponents by a total of 13 points.  That scenario has changed a good bit in the intervening three weeks.  In addition to losing to Chicago by 4, the Lions were also manhandled by the Cowboys and the Patriots. 

Still, they are likely to be a tough out.  We only beat them by 2 points in Lambeau Field earlier in the season.  And I hate to see Aaron Rodgers in Ndomukong Suh’s crosshairs!  I don’t doubt that we’re the better team, but I am apprehensive. 

In the end, though, I am expecting a Packer win.  And I am also very hopeful about a Bears loss.  On paper, this is the ideal week for us to catch up to Chicago.  It could be a great football weekend! 

On the other hand, a loss in Detroit, and nearly all postseason hope will be gone.

 

P.S.  The Thursday Night game is of no consequence to us as Packer fans, but it’s an interesting match-up for other reasons…  On the one hand, you’ve got the Indianapolis Colts.  This is the team that is typically flirting with an undefeated season about now.  But, instead, they’re wallowing at .500, Peyton Manning has been a disaster in recent weeks, they have a 1-2 record in their Division, and they run the risk of missing the playoffs.  Meanwhile, on the other side, you have the Tennessee Titans.  The wheels have completely come off for that team this season.  And, of course, I am always happy to watch Randy Moss struggle.

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Detroit Lions,Chicago Bears,New England Patriots,Dallas Cowboys,Minnesota Vikings,Philadelphia Eagles,Washington Redskins,Michael Vick,New Orleans Saints

Neck-and-Neck with the Bears, vs. 4

Just four weeks left to go, and the Packers are still on the outside looking in at the 2010 playoffs.  Obviously, we can keep jockeying for wild card position with teams like the Giants and Saints.  But our chief aim is winning our Division, and our chief obstacle to that goal is the Chicago Bears. 

On the one hand, they struggled to beat the Lions.  On the other hand, they got it done.  Again.  And now we have to head to Detroit to try to do the same.  For a half-dozen different reasons, it really is a must-win game for the Pack.

Meanwhile, I saw online that, records notwithstanding, Andrew Perloff still thinks that Green Bay is better than Chicago.  I am inclined to agree.  And I do believe that we’ll beat them in Lambeau in Week 17.

That said, we still have to get to the point where that game is meaningful.  And to that end, we have to keep pace with the Bears in the three weeks leading up to that game.  Fortunately, as you see below, the Bears don’t have a single easy game remaining.  I can honestly imagine them losing all four.  Conversely, the Packers don’t have an easy game left, either.  On paper, the Lions should be an easy win, but we know better than to count on that. 

Week	Packers (8-4)	Bears (9-3)
14	at Lions (2-10)	Patriots (10-2)
15	at Patriots (10-2)	at Vikings (5-7)
16	Giants (8-4)	Jets (9-3)
17	Bears (9-3)	at Packers (8-4)
Records	(29-19)	(32-16)

Bottom line?  I’d rather be a Packer fan than a Bear fan right now. 

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Chicago Bears,NFC North,NFL Playoffs,Andrew Perloff,Detroit Lions

Ugly Is as Ugly Does… or Something Like That

I have heard parents, employers, and educators all insist that attire impacts performance.  Dress like someone who doesn’t care, and you’ll work like someone who doesn’t care.

I don’t know how true that is in all areas of life, but it surely seemed to be true in Lambeau Field on Sunday afternoon.

After a mostly dismal first half, I think that if I were Coach McCarthy, I would have had the Packers change into some non Civil War era uniforms during halftime. 

Much to our relief, the Packers prettied up their game a good bit during the second half.  Still, it was not the sort of wire-to-wire domination that we should have exhibited against a team like the 49ers at home. 

Rodgers looked great.  The running game showed some signs of life.  It’s nice to be able to double another team’s score in a game when you didn’t play a full 60 minutes of good football.  And I was impressed by the Packers’ capacity to eat up the clock late in the 4th quarter. 

In the end, it wasn’t a thing of beauty, but a win by any other name would smell as sweet…? 

Meanwhile, there are four “big cat” teams in the NFL: the Panthers and Lions in the NFC, and the Jaguars and Bengals in the AFC.  Except for the resurgent Jaguars, all the other big cats are playing like declawed kittens this season.  And the two of them that we needed to play well this week -- the Bengals and Lions -- both failed us in the end.  Cincy and Detroit both led their opponents (New Orleans and Chicago, respectively) in the fourth quarter, but neither could hold on for the win.

Since the Packers also won, it’s not super-costly.  Still, it would have been nice to get a little help. 

The one bit of help we did get this weekend was from last week’s foe.  The Atlanta Falcons came from behind to beat the surprising Buccaneers.  Since last week’s loss essentially sealed the deal in terms of our trying to catch and surpass Atlanta, our rooting interest was for a Tampa Bay loss.  That happened, and that means one less NFC team knotted up at 8-4.  It’s a crowded field vying for this year’s NFC wild card berths, and Green Bay can’t afford to stumble, as a result.

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Atlanta Falcons,Detroit Lions,Chicago Bears,San Francisco 49ers,Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week Thirteen Preview

Lots of games of interest for Packer fans this weekend.  The number of games that we care about is evidence that we are in the thick of the playoff hunt. 

Our rooting begins on Thursday night when the 5-6 Texans visit the 7-4 Eagles.  We are Houston fans tonight, although the Eagles are the least threatening to us of our NFC competitors since we have the head-to-head advantage over them. 

Of somewhat more significance is the Redskins’ games against the Giants.  New York has been such a bipolar team this year, it’s hard to know what to expect from them.  By all rights, they should beat the visiting Redskins, but we’ll pull for Washington anyway because we’re neck-and-neck with the Giants (whom we play for ourselves on the penultimate week of the season).

We’d also like to see the pathetic Bengals beat the visiting Saints, but who are we kidding.

The Falcons’ trip to Tampa Bay should be a more interesting game.  Because of their 9-2 record, and because they beat us head-to-head, we can pretty much cede every advantage to the Falcons in terms of the NFC playoff picture.  Accordingly, we are rooting for them to beat the Bucs in Tampa.  On the one hand, the Buccaneers are considered one of the surprise teams of the 2010 season.  On the other hand, they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record yet.  I look for an Atlanta win, therefore. 

In a rare move, I’ll also be rooting for the Vikings this week.  Why, you ask, would I care whether the Vikings (who are out of it) beat the Bills (who are out of it)?  Because I want the Vikings to feel renewed, refreshed, believing in themselves, and on a roll when they host the Bears in a couple of weeks!

Speaking of the Bears, they visit the 2-9 Lions on Sunday.  Detroit is widely regarded as one of the best 2-9 teams ever.  It’s a case of a team that is better than their record playing a team that is, in my judgment, not as good as their record.  The former is home.  It’s a division game.  And I look for the Detroit D-Line to eat up Jay Cutler.

Meanwhile, in the most important (for us) game of the week, the 4-7 49ers come to Lambeau.  On the one hand, San Francisco is not very good this year.  Also, they have just lost their starting running back for the season, and they were more of a running threat than a passing threat on offense as it was.  So that looks very good for us.  On the other hand, in the awful NFC West, the 49ers are still very much in the playoff hunt.  They still have something to play for.

Personally, I think the Packers will win.  And I’m pondering the possibility that they’ll win so convincingly -- that the 49ers will be so embarrassed, so humiliated -- that we’ll get to mount a third coach’s head in our den after this game.  I’m picturing Mike Singletary above the team’s fireplace, right next to Brad Childress and Wade Philips

Finally, both Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football have outstanding match-ups schedule.  The scheduling really couldn’t have worked out any better for them, as they both boast contest between divisional rivals tied at the top of their respective divisions.  Amazing.  And so, on Sunday Night, we’ll see the 8-3 Steelers at the 8-3 Ravens.  And, on Monday Night, we’ll go one better as the 9-2 Jets visit the 9-2 Patriots.

Lots of good football this week!  (Let’s hope it’s better than last week.)

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,San Francisco 49ers,Minnesota Vikings,Detroit Lions,Chicago Bears,Atlanta Falcons,Tampa Bay Buccaneers,Philadelphia Eagles

Disliked People

I have been very aware this past week that a significant part of the sports fan’s experience is the feeling of dislike.  This is not Columbus discovering American, I admit, but it was a bit of a revelation for me.  Most sports fans not only feel a strong allegiance to certain people, they also feel a strong dislike for certain other people.

In the wake of the Packers’ disappointment in Atlanta last Sunday, I heard a lot of Green Bay fans express extreme dislike -- contempt, really -- for Special Teams coach Shawn Slocum.  Now, I don’t know Coach Slocum.  I wouldn’t know him if he sat down next to me.  And I have a hard time disliking someone who is as unknown to me as he is.  If I had some exposure that prompted me to think he was a real jerk, then perhaps I could get on board with all the calls for his head.  As it is, though, all I can conclude is that he doesn’t seem to be very good at his job.  That doesn’t arouse much passion in me, however. 

On the other hand, someone who does arouse a real visceral reaction within me is Randy Moss.  Because I have felt such a strong dislike for him for so many years, I find myself truly relishing the way 2010 is playing out for him. 

This past Sunday, Moss’ second team of the 2010 season (the Vikings) won a game under their new interim head coach.  Likewise, his first team from this season (the Patriots) also continued their winning ways.  His most recent squad (the Titans), however, lost again on Sunday.  Indeed,Tennessee is now 0-3 since acquiring the talented cancer. 

SI.com has an excellent piece on Randy Moss.

They also have an interesting piece about another hotly disliked athlete today -- LeBron James.  His much-anticipated homecoming is tonight.  It will be interesting to see the ratings for that event:  in other words, how much public interest will there be in a basketball game when the game itself is of no natural interest? 

Another polarizing athlete is Michael Vick.  On the one hand, he became a pariah a few years back when his involvement in dog-fighting was revealed.  On the other hand, he became the hottest commodity in the NFL after his astonishing performance in the first half of the MNF game against the Redskins a few weeks back.  Oh my, all the talk about Michael Vick!  He was the greatest player the NFL had ever seen!  The position of quarterback would never be the same!

I was reminded of Pontius Pilate’s words to Ben Hur after his great victory in the chariot race:  “You are the people’s one true god, for the time being.”

Well, Vick was unspectacular in his win against the Giants the following week, and he was absolutely stymied by the Bears in Philly’s defeat this past Sunday. 

Oh, well.  Easy come, easy go.

Technorati Tags: Shawn Slocum,Randy Moss,Michael Vick,LeBron James

Neck-and-Neck with the Bears, v. 3

Well, we are not as neck-and-neck as we were before this past Sunday, but I still like our chances to win the Division.  The Bears are winning more and more believers, but I am not yet among them. 

And I do believe in the Packers.

The Bears continue to have a marginally tougher remaining schedule than we do.  Their opponents, as you can see, combine to have a slightly better winning percentage.  Plus, they have 3 road games and 2 home games remaining, while we have 3 home and 2 away. 

Finally, the Bears have three Division games remaining, while the Packers only have two.  The fact that we swept the Vikings, while Chicago still has to go play them in Minnesota is a significant advantage for us. 

Week	Packers (7-4)	Bears (8-3)
13	49ers (4-7)	at Lions (2-9)
14	at Lions (2-9)	Patriots (9-2)
15	at Patriots (9-2)	at Vikings (4-7)
16	Giants (7-4)	Jets (9-2)
17	Bears (8-3)	at Packers (7-4)
Records	(30-25)	(31-24)

In the immediate future, we both face teams with losing records in Week 13.  Our opponent is arguably tougher, inasmuch as they have the better record and much more to play for.  On the other hand, the Bears have to go on the road, I believe the Lions are much better than their record, anything can happen in the Division, and the Lions want revenge for being robbed by the refs in their first meeting with the Bears. 

I predict, therefore, that we’ll come out of Week 13 tied for first again. 

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Chicago Bears,Minnesota Vikings,San Francisco 49ers,Detroit Lions,NFC North

Tevye Talks Football

In Fiddler on the Roof, Tevye is famous for his ability to see both sides of every situation.  “On the other hand,” he reasons to himself on several occasions, always coming up with another point of view.

I feel like Tevye about this past week of NFL action.

On the one hand, it was a disastrous week for the Packers.  The Bears beat a tough NFC opponent while the Packers lost to one. 

On the other hand, both Philly and Tampa Bay lost, which suits our cause just fine.

On the other hand, with Sunday’s loss in Atlanta, we went from the possible position of controlling our own destiny and home field advantage to clinging to the edge of the NFC playoff picture. 

On the other hand, we have lost 4 games this season, and all of them have been lost by a mere field goal.  That means that no one is good enough to dominate us, to wipe us out, to run us off the field.  It means we genuinely could have beaten anyone we’ve played.

On the other hand, it also means that our bend-but-don’t-break defense is better designed for games we can dominate than the close games.

On the other hand, Las Vegas typically assumes that home field advantage is worth 3 points.  By that logic, we are just as good as Atlanta, and we would have beaten them at Lambeau. 

On the other hand, one dramatic way that we obviously were not as good as Atlanta was on the ground.  The absence of an effective running game was embarrassingly apparent on Sunday.  (If only the Packers could run it like the Badgers!  Brett Bielema’s team is proving that a punishing offensive line and grind-it-out running attack is good enough to swamp opponents and put up a ton of points.)

On the other hand, the fact is that we substantially outgained Atlanta, and if it hadn’t been for Aaron Rodgers’ fumble in the Falcon end zone, we would have won. 

On the other hand, we simply cannot afford to stumble again down the home stretch of the season.  We are in a neck-and-neck race, not only for the NFC North title, but also for the two NFC Wild Card berths.

And at that point, Tevye would grimly conclude, “There is no other hand.”

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Atlanta Falcons,Chicago Bears,Fiddler on the Roof,NFL Playoffs,NFC North

Week Twelve Preview

A great line-up of football awaits us on this Thanksgiving weekend!

It starts at 11:30 a.m. Thursday in Detroit.  The Lions are almost as much a traditional part of Thanksgiving as turkey -- and they fare about as well.  Their losing ways are likely to continue as the Patriots come to town. 

The second game on Thanksgiving Day is the most important one of the day for us.  The 7-3 New Orleans Saints are listed just ahead of us in the Conference standings, and so we’ll be rooting for the resurgent Cowboys.  The game will be in Dallas, and it will be an interesting test for Jason Garrett’s team.  The Cowboys are playing for pride; the Saints are playing for playoffs.  New Orleans doesn’t seem quite as dominant as the 2009 squad, and so I think Dallas stands a chance here.  ‘Should be good Thanksgiving Day viewing!

(Meanwhile, there’s also lots of good college football to watch on Friday, but that’s not our chief concern here.)

On Sunday, the Vikings visit the Redskins.  Minnesota is no longer a realistic threat to our ambitions within the Division, so we don’t really have much reason to care how they fare from this point on.  Still, it’s an interesting story line to watch…  Will their new coach achieve the sort of immediate turnaround in attitude and performance that Jason Garrett achieved in Dallas?  And how will the embattled and aged Favre handle these final few weeks of his storied career?

I’ll be rooting for the Ravens (which I have seldom done in my life) when they host the 7-3 Buccaneers this Sunday afternoon. 

Another late Sunday game of interest to us is the Eagles’ visit to Chicago.  The truth is, of course, that if Philly were playing anyone else, we’d be rooting against them.  In this case, however, we’d like them to come in and trip up the Bears for us.  Still, given the Eagles’ place in the NFC playoff picture, it wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing for them to lose this game. 

Of course, the game of greatest consequence this weekend -- and what Don Banks calls “the glamour matchup of the week” -- is the Packers’ trip to Atlanta.  He observes that these two clubs share the longest current winning streak in the NFL at 4 games each. 

For the Falcons, those four games have included a 39-32 victory over the Bengals, a 27-21 win over Tampa Bay, a 26-21 win against the Ravens, and a 34-17 defeat of the Rams.  Only the last of those games was on the road.

The Packers, meanwhile, have beaten the Vikings twice in that same stretch, plus a drubbing of the Cowboys and a gritty win in New York against the Jets. 

Through 10 games, the Packers and Falcons have nearly identical offensive productivity, with Atlanta averaging 25.6 and Green Bay 25.2 points per game.  On defense, meanwhile, the Packers have been considerably more stingy, allowing a measly 14.6 points per game, compared with the Falcons’ also commendable average of 19.2. 

The Falcons boast an NFL-best 8-2 record.  And unless we win this game, we can almost guarantee that we’ll have to go back to Atlanta at some point during the playoffs.  Now I’m comfortable with our team’s dome performance, but I’d much rather see a team from Georgia have to play at Lambeau in January. 

Whoever wins this game will be the flavor du jour in sports talk and national media attention.  And, more significantly, whoever wins this game will have grabbed the inside track on home field advantage in the NFC.

This will be a great test for the Packers.  They have played three masterpieces in a row.  On the other hand, two of those three have been against teams that, arguably, have not really played -- so much so that both coaches were fired shortly after those games.  A win against the Falcons on the road, therefore, would be a definitive statement.

Finally, the folks at ESPN got hosed this week.  The Monday Night Football match-up is hardly a crowning touch on the great football weekend.  The 3-7 49ers visit the 3-7 Cardinals.  Yuck!  The only thing that keeps this game from being a complete irrelevancy is the fact that the pathetic NFC West is actually still within reach for both of these losers. 

Okay, so predictions for this eventful football weekend…

Packers, Eagles, Vikings, and Cowboys all win, and the Badgers secure their trip to Pasadena.

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Dallas Cowboys,Atlanta Falcons,Minnesota Vikings,NFL playoffs,Chicago Bears,Philadelphia Eagles,New Orleans Saints

Neck-and-Neck with the Bears, v. 2

Well, both the Bears and the Packers pulled off impressive wins on the road in Week 11, and so they enter Week 12 virtually tied atop the NFC North.  And with the Vikings falling like a stone, it truly is a two-team race for our Division.

While sharing an identical record with Green Bay, the Bears have the edge on us by virtue of beating us head-to-head.  Of course, we’ll be able to even that score on the last week of the season on the Frozen Tundra. 

As you can see in the chart below, our roads ahead are also nearly identical.  Both teams have 3 road games and 3 home games left.  And both teams face 4 winning records and 2 losing records in the weeks that remain. 

Week	Packers (7-3)	Bears (7-3)
12	at Falcons (8-2)	Eagles (7-3)
13	49ers (3-7)	at Lions (2-8)
14	at Lions (2-8)	Patriots (8-2)
15	at Patriots (8-2)	at Vikings (3-7)
16	Giants (6-4)	Jets (8-2)
17	Bears (7-3)	at Packers (7-3)
Records	(34-26)	(35-25)

Week 12 is going to be a tremendous challenge for both of us.  The Falcons and Eagles are both Division leaders.  And they’re both NFC teams, which matters in terms of both tie-breakers and playoff seeding.  Green Bay has to play the Falcons in Atlanta, while the Bears get to host the Eagles. 

We’ll give more specific attention to the Week 12 match-ups later in the week.  For now, just this about the horse race in the Division…

I sincerely believe that that Packers are better than the Bears -- better coach, better quarterback, better receivers.  Defenses are both good.  Chicago probably has the edge on special teams, though we seem to have improved somewhat in that area. 

In any case, given my assumption that we are the better team, and given the fact that we have identical records and nearly identical schedules, I believe that the Packers will win the Division in the end.  Accordingly, the head-to-head match-up with the Falcons is all the more important, for NFC playoff seeding and home field advantage are at stake.

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Chicago Bears,Atlanta Falcons,Philadelphia Eagles,NFL playoffs

Coach Killers

The last two teams that the Green Bay Packers have played (and beaten badly) have fired their coaches in the following week.  First it was the Cowboys releasing Wade Phillips after the way they were embarrassed by the Packers on Sunday Night Football.  And now the Minnesota Vikings have unloaded Brad Childress in the wake of their humiliation at the hands of the Packers on Sunday afternoon on their own home field.

At the same time, we also note that the last two coaches Brett Favre has played for (Eric Mangini with the Jets, and now Brad Childress with the Vikings) have been fired. 

So who is the real coach killer?

The Childress story is the really remarkable one, of course.  On the one hand, this week’s news was a surprise to no one.  The hometown crowd was audibly calling for his firing on Sunday afternoon!  (Can you imagine what it would feel like to stand there while tens of thousands of people are yelling for you to be fired?!) 

But rewind the tape only a few months.  The Vikings were a play or two away from the Super Bowl last January.  Just last January!  In the long history of the NFL, I suspect that few teams have fallen so far so fast as the Minnesota Vikings have during the calendar year 2010.  It’s a remarkable story.  And it’s hard to imagine a much more pathetic ending to Brett Favre’s career -- especially considering the several times in recent he could have gone out near the top. 

If only he had retired at the end of the 2007 or 2009 seasons, he would have fulfilled the classic counsel:  Leave ‘em wanting more!  As it is now, however, I don’t think anyone will be knocking on his Mississippi door this offseason, and that may be the strangest change of all for him. 

Technorati Tags: Brad Childress,Minnesota Vikings,Dallas Cowboys,Green Bay Packers,Brett Favre

A Quick Look Back at Week Eleven

The Cowboys are 2-0 since making Jason Garrett head coach.

The Titans are 0-2 since adding Randy Moss to their roster.

Wade Phillips was the first to go.  Who is next?  Brad Childress?  Perhaps Mike Singletary? 

What the lowly Cleveland Browns managed to do, the mighty Pittsburgh Steelers and perennially productive Indianapolis Colts could not: beat the New England Patriots. 

SI.com is now flirting with the possibility that Favre is done for good:

Among the questions surrounding the Vikings -- Will Brad Childress be fired? Is the team coming apart? -- is whether Brett Favre just up and retires. It sure sounded like it Sunday. ... If he's going to come back, then he's going to have to talk himself into it. When he left Sunday, it was for good. That was not "see you later." It was goodbye. Twice he was asked if he's committed to finishing the season. He would not make promises. "I came back for a Super Bowl," he said. "But also, I knew there was a chance it wouldn't happen." What do you mean you're going to re-evaluate? "I have no idea," he said, smiling. "That was just an answer."
Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/morning-jolt/11/22/brett-favre-morning-jolt/index.html#ixzz161vz4enA

Wouldn’t that be something if the final game of his career was a loss to the Packers?!

Speaking of the Packers, they have allowed a total of just 10 points in the past three games combined.  Peter King is wondering if they are perhaps the best team in the league.  That first page of his MMQB is a good read for Packer fans -- I recommend it. 

And one quick college football note… How ‘bout them Badgers?!  Ever since their 10-point loss to the Spartans in East Lansing, Wisconsin hasn’t missed a beat.  This week, they went into Michigan and put a real beat-down on the Wolverines.  A writer for CBS Sports has written an effective tribute to this year's Badgers and their coach: a very satisfying read.  Still some sorting out to do in the Big Ten and the BCS. 

Between Thursday in the NFL and Friday in the NCAA, it should be a great Thanksgiving weekend of football!

Technorati Tags: Green Bay Packers,Brett Favre,Wisconsin Badgers,Randy Moss,Dallas Cowboys,Brad Childress,Peter King

Week Eleven Preview

The Packers are back from their bye, and the rooting begins for us on Thursday night again this week. 

The Bears travel to Miami to play the quarterback-less Dolphins on the NFL Network.  Chicago (as we unpacked in an earlier post) is our chief competition in the NFC North, and so we are Miami fans this week.  It’s a short week for both teams, and so the Dolphins’ home field advantage might be magnified a bit.  Also, the Bears are perfectly set for a letdown game after that triumphant at-home performance against Division-rival Minnesota.  On the other hand, the Dolphins are reeling after watching their first and second-string quarterbacks go down last Sunday, one of them for the rest of the season.  Added to Miami’s woes is that Chicago is a top-flight run defense, and so the game will rest heavily on the arm and performance of their 3rd-string quarterback. 

Still, Miami has a highly-ranked pass defense, and you know that Mike Martz and Jay Cutler want to pass the ball.  I’m counting on the Bears to turn the ball over more often that the Dolphins, and that is my basis for giving Miami at least a little hope.  

Meanwhile, we’re beginning to pay more attention to other teams around the Conference, conscious of the imminent Wild Card race and playoff seeding methods.

Specifically, this week we’ll be rooting for the surprising Rams to upset the visiting Falcons.  That’s somewhat unlikely, but it’s more likely than the Seahawks upsetting the Saints at home.  We’re also hoping to see the 49ers prevail over the visiting Buccaneers. 

The Giants at Philadelphia should be a great game this week on Sunday Night Football.  They are coming off dramatically different Week Ten performances against Division foes.  Since we haven’t played New York yet, it’s hard to say which way to lean on this one.  My own inclination is to root for New York so that the Eagles will be suitably focused when they travel to Chicago the following week.

The Colts in New England will also be a fascinating game.  It has no impact on the Packers’ fate, of course, but it has become a regular season classic.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Lions go to Dallas to play the Cowboys.  Both teams are wallowing at 2-7, but the Cowboy fans will likely be welcoming their team like conquering heroes this Sunday.  I’m guessing they’ll keep Jason Garrett’s record perfect.

Finally, and most importantly, the Packers head to Minnesota this Sunday afternoon.  While I am not worried that the Vikings will overtake us in the Division this year, I am worried that they will beat us this week and thereby give the Bears another leg up on us in the NFC North race. 

We have the advantage of the bye week, of course, and I think we’re more suited to playing in a dome than we used to be.  Also, the Vikings are a mess with little to play for.  Plus, there has to be such disarray and lethargy in a locker room where everyone knows that neither the coach nor the quarterback will be there next year. 

On the other hand, they’ve got talent.  They probably have pride.  And I’m guessing that they hate the Packers enough to get up for this game. 

As I mentioned earlier, I think the key to the game for us is to get up early on the Vikings.  If we can get them demoralized, I believe the part of them that has nothing to play for may take over and give us something resembling the Cowboys’ effort of a couple weeks back.  So I’ll pick the Pack, though I’m very nervous.

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