Playoff Picture

With just five weeks to go now in the 2012 regular season, it may be time to take our first look at the playoff race.  As Packer fans, we won't concern ourselves at this point with the AFC picture.  But let's take a moment to consider the NFC.

If the season ended today, the Falcons and 49ers would enjoy the top two seeds and the first-round byes.  It's hard to imagine either one missing the playoffs, and so for them it's just a matter of jockeying for position within the NFC totem pole.  We'll give attention to that as we look at each week's match-ups.

Meanwhile, if the season ended today, the Bears would be the NFC North champ and the third seed, followed by the Giants as the NFC East champ and fourth seed.  The Packers and Seahawks would have the two wild card berths.  Just barely on the outside looking in at this point are the Buccaneers and Vikings at 6-5 (one game behind the current wild card teams), as well as the Redskins and Cowboys at 5-6. 

The Cowboys are an interesting case, for one would think that they'd need to win at least 4 of their remaining 5 games, but their last two are against the Saints and Redskins.  That's good scheduling.  It should make for exciting viewing as the season winds down. 

The Vikings are a game better than the Cowboys, but I don't think their chances are better.  They were shellacked by the Bears this weekend.  Now they have to go to Green Bay and then play the Bears again.  After a trip to St. Louis, they wrap up their season at Houston and hosting the Packers.  That's a tough road, and so I'm thinking the odds are long on the Vikings for this postseason.

The Seahawks are in a more favorable position.  While they do have games against the Bears and 49ers, their other three contests feature the Cardinals, Bills, and Rams.  They're all NFL teams, to be sure, but they are teams that a serious playoff contender expects to beat. 

While the numbers that Packer fans associate with the Giants right now is 38 and 10, the more pertinent numbers are 7and 4.  That is the current won-loss record of both Green Bay and New York.  Of course, the Giants have the head-to-head tie-breaker.  But they also have a pretty challenging schedule.  They go to Washington this week, followed by games against the Saints, Falcons, Ravens, and Eagles.  In short, their next 4 games will be against teams that are somewhere between good and great, as well as teams with a lot to play for.  It seems entirely possible to me that Green Bay will end the season with a better record than New York. 

The Packers' only non-Division opponent remaining is the Tennessee Titans in Green Bay on December 23rd.  I assume a "W" that week.  Meanwhile, we get to host the Lions, whom we managed to beat in Detroit, and who will likely have even less to play for when they arrive at Lambeau on December 9th.  We also face the Vikings twice -- a team whose best days seem to have been in the first half of the season.  And then there is the annual trip to Chicago.  We'll have to play better than we did in New York, of course, but I am quite sure that we have what it takes to beat these Bears.  And if we do, then I see us winning the NFC North and locking up the fourth -- and possibly even the third -- NFC seed.