Week 5 Preview

Was it Bill Parcells who famously insisted that you are what your record says you are? 

I used to believe that, but this year I’m not so sure.

Are the Packers really a .500 team?  Are the Patriots?  Are the 0-4 Saints really the equal of the 0-4 Browns?  Are the Eagles and Vikings genuinely 3-1 quality teams? 

Our consideration of the Week 5 slate of games begins in the state of Pennsylvania where the 3-1 Eagles will visit the 1-2 Steelers.  Pittsburgh is coming off their bye, and they cannot afford to drop to 1-3 in a division that includes the Ravens.  Furthermore, I don’t really believe that Philly is as good as its record.  Perhaps both teams will surprise me – as they have both done already this season – but I expect a Steeler win. 

The Falcons have enjoyed tremendous hype for their impressive and undefeated September.  They’ll take their perfect record into D.C. (and we know not much has stayed perfect there since Jimmy Stewart’s “Mr. Smith).  The unbeaten and much-hyped Cardinals have already lost a shocker in Week 5.  Will Atlanta suffer the same fate?  I think it’s possible.

The other undefeated team is also hitting the road this week.  The Houston Texans take on the New York Jets in a game made all the more fascinating by the soap opera dysfunctionality of the Jets.  Will their play match their bluster, or will they be embarrassed again?  Who will quarterback?  What will their coach say and do?  I think the Texans are the better team – but then I thought that the 49ers were better than the Vikings, too.

Speaking of the 49ers, they host the Bills this Sunday.  Both teams are coming off of blowout games.  The 49ers blew out the Jets, while the Bills were being blown out by the New England Patriots.  No time for Buffalo to feel sorry for itself; they have to cross the country to play arguably the best team in the NFC.  Not a recipe for success for the Bills. 

The Saints continue to look for some recipe for success.  They (with the help of the officials and Graham Harrell) almost pulled it off in Green Bay last week.  Can they pull it off at home this week against the visiting Chargers?  Tough to say.  I think the Saint offense can keep up with anybody, but their defense may not be able to slow down the Chargers as effectively as the Chargers will be able to slow down the Saints.  Could New Orleans possibly drop to 0-5?!

One of the best match-ups of the week is the Broncos’ trip to New England.  I don’t think Denver is as good as the Patriots, but it is a renewal of the duel between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, which should be exciting.  I wish the game were being played in Denver, though.  I think that would even the playing field a bit. 

Within our own Division, the Lions have their bye this wee before returning to play at Philly next Sunday.  It’s tough to have to take your bye at 1-3.  I would think you’d be impatient to get back out there.  Detroit is an interesting mess so far in 2012.

Meanwhile, I’m afraid the other two Division rivals are likely to win this week.  The Bears are on the road, but they’re playing the Jaguars, and I do suspect that Chicago is the better team.  4-1.  Yuck.

Meanwhile, the Vikings get to stay home and host the Titans.  I’m slow to come around to be a believer in Minnesota.  The reality is, though, that they are playing better than Tennessee so far this season, and especially so on defense. 

Finally, our game is an early one this week.  After so many non-traditional time slots for Packer games last month, finally we’re back to a Sunday noon kickoff again.  We’re visiting the 1-2 Colts, who have lost two of Andrew Luck’s first three games as an NFL quarterback.  They are coming off a bye and playing at home, both of which will be to their advantage.  Meanwhile, they are also carrying the emotional load of the recent health news about their head coach, which is an impossible factor to calculate or predict.  In the end, I’m quite sure that Green Bay is the better team.  And most of the time in the NFL, the better team wins.  I expect the Packers to win on the road this Sunday.

And they’d better win on the road this Sunday, because next Sunday they’ll be on the road against the Houston Texans – perhaps the best team in the league right now.

Packers at Colts