Week 15 Preview

I haven’t seen any scenario in which a Packers’ loss today provides a way for them to clinch a playoff berth.  I have, however, seen a variety of complex formulae in which Green Bay could play Chicago to a tie and still wind up with a spot in the postseason.

But the simplest formula is this:  win and they’re in. 

As improbable as all of this may have seemed when the Packers were 2-3, or when the Bears were 7-1, Green Bay can clinch the NFC North with a win in Chicago today.  The 8-5 Bears, meanwhile, do not have the same capability.

I like Green Bay to get the job done.  As my earlier posts will attest, Chicago has not really impressed me all season.  Even when they were enjoying considerable media hype, I didn’t think they were for real.  And now their vaunted defense is old and injured, while the Packer offense has discovered a running game and has Greg Jennings back.  As Don Banks has put it, “Green Bay and Chicago are two elevators passing on the same shaft, headed for different floors. Not to say the Bears couldn't win this Sunday and make things interesting, but Chicago appears to have played its best ball of the season some time in October. Which is at least six weeks back. And that's not what you want.”

Meanwhile, speaking of Banks’ analysis of things, he makes a bold statement about the Packers’ place in the 2012 NFL pantheon:

By my clear-eyed assessment of the situation… only four teams escaped Week 14 looking built for the long haul that awaits in January and the first weekend of February: New England and Denver in the AFC, Green Bay and San Francisco in the NFC.

I guarantee the Super Bowl matchup comes out of that four-team pool, so write it down, chuck it in the vault, and seal it until the close of conference championship Sunday, when you are then free to remove it and reflect on my prescience. Or not. Either way, those are my new top four teams in this week's power rankings, and for good reason. They're potentially Super, and the other 28 teams are not.

Sounds good to me!

Meanwhile, the Packers go into the weekend with the #3 seed in the NFC, just a half-game behind San Francisco.  Those 49ers, meanwhile, head across the country to face the New England Patriots, coming off their recent domination of the not-ready-for-prime-time Texans.  This is a great Sunday Night Football match-up, and many will bill it as a Super Bowl preview.  For me, it will be a rare occasion to root for the Patriots.

While San Francisco has to take on New England, meanwhile, their division rival Seahawks will play the 5-8 Bills.  It looks to me like a Seattle win, which puts that much more pressure on the 49ers tonight.

Also of interest to us is the Giants’ visit to Atlanta.  New York needs the game more, and they do tend to rise to the occasion.  Also, I think the Falcons are not as good as their record.  Nonetheless, they’re playing at home, they need to bounce back from last week, and we would welcome a New York loss.   

The Steelers-Cowboys will be another fascinating game.  These two powerhouses of the 70s both find themselves scratching and clawing to make the playoffs this season.  At 7-6 each, neither one can afford a loss in Week 15.

And, in the AFC, the Broncos-Ravens game drips with playoff implications.

Of course, by this point in the year, you’re also bound to have some meaningless match-ups of also-rans….  The Lions-Cardinals, Jaguars-Dolphins, Chiefs-Raiders, and such.  Monuments to disappointing seasons, as those fans begin to look forward to the NFL Draft.

We, however, are living on the better side of the tracks.  It is December 16th, and it feels like there is still a ton of football left to be played.  Beginning with one of the best rivalries in football, where I expect us to get the best of the Bears down in Soldier Field.