Week Four -- A Look Ahead

The Packers enter Week Four tied for second (though with a head-to-head edge over the Bears) in the NFC North, one game behind the 3-0 Vikings. It's possible that we will come out of this football weekend at the top of our Division, or it's possible that we could end the weekend at the bottom.

It's all intramural for the NFC North this week, as the Vikings host the Packers and as the Lions travel to Chicago.

Packers at Vikings

This is the game Ted Thompson didn't want to see happen. This is what he worked so hard to avoid -- even to preclude -- a year ago. But now it is the Monday Night Nightmare for all the world to see: Brett Favre in purple playing AGAINST the Green Bay Packers.

For the world of TV ratings, of course, this couldn't have worked out any better. The Packers first game against Favre's Vikings is in Minnesota on a Monday Night. That will be a natural draw because it's the first contest. But then the second game will be just as compelling -- perhaps more so -- for it will be billed as Brett's return to Green Bay.

Apart from the soap opera elements, there is the actual game itself, and I'm concerned about it.

They say that the game is won or lost at the line of scrimmage, and I believe it. So while offensive guards and defensive tackles are not hounded by autograph-seekers, overwhelmed by endorsement offers, and carefully tracked by fantasy leaguers, I think those are the guys who are going to make the difference on Monday Night. We can talk about Favre vs. Rodgers, the wonders of Adrian Peterson, and the explosiveness of the Packer receiving corps, but it's the superiority of the Vikings' front lines on offense and defense that are going to win this game for Minnesota.

I am not a pro scout. I don't know for a fact that they have more talent up front than we do. I just know that, to-date, Minnesota's guys are performing well and Green Bay's guys are not. If the Packer coaching staff can turn that around over a long week, great. That's not my expectation, however.

That said, here is my positive take... If it was an all-passing game, and if Brett and Aaron got exactly the same protection -- good or bad -- on Monday Night, I'd like Rodgers and his receivers to score more on the Viking DBs than Favre and his crowd to score on ours.

But, that's not how the game is played. Monday Night will not be a 7-on-7 drill. Accordingly, I see the Vikings cruising to 4-0, while the Packers head into their bye at 2-2.

Lions at Bears

We know that Detroit is a better team in 2009 than they were in 2008. But how much better? I'm guessing that they are still not good enough to go on the road and beat the Bears. And so, while I was rather happy for them finally to break their terrible streak last Sunday and get a win, I think their euphoria will be short-lived. If the Lions should happen to win, however, it's going to be one really bunched-up Division!


Elsewhere...

Elsewhere around the league, there is a wealth of really fascinating games to watch.

A few of the games are interesting to watch the way that it's interesting to slow down and look at an accident. The winless Buccaneer's trip to visit the reeling Redskins will be a certain kind of interesting. Likewise, the resurgent Bengals' trip to the Dawg Pound, where they desperately need a win. And, finally, there is going to be something perversely interesting about the Giants-Chiefs game: 3-0 against 0-3.

Meanwhile, there are these other truly compelling match-ups of good teams...

On paper, the best match-up may be the Jets' trip to New Orleans. Both teams are 3-0 and atop their divisions. New York and their new franchise QB are taking everyone by surprise. New Orleans, meanwhile, was expected to be good, but perhaps not this good. The Saints have outscored the next most prolific team (Baltimore) by 17 points over the first three weeks of the young season. I wouldn't want to have to put money on this game -- but I would love to watch it!

Meanwhile, the 2-1 Chargers head to Pittsburgh, where the defending Super Bowl champs are a surprising 1-2, third place in their division, and 2 games below the mighty potent-looking Ravens. The Chargers are assumed to be among the AFC elites, but it's hard to imagine the mentally tough and battle-tested Steelers losing this one at home and falling to 1-3 on the season after winning the whole enchillada.

And, speaking of the Ravens, they're taking their perfect record into New England this Sunday for what is arguably the best game of a whole week of great games. Baltimore has outscored their opponents so far by an astonishing 103-53 margin. But, as with the Steelers above, it's hard to imagine the Patriots losing this one at home. Still, one wonder if, on this uncommon Sunday, New England may not be the best team on the field.