Odds for Ends

Late in the Monday Night game, ESPN showed a statistic to illustrate the playoff probabilities of teams with various records after 4 games.

Teams that jump out to a 4-0 start (like the Vikings) make the playoffs 84% of the time.

Teams that get a good 3-1 start (like the Bears) make the playoffs 64% of the time.

Meanwhile, teams that get a 2-2 start (like the Packers) make the playoff just 35% of the time. "Look at that precipitous drop," Mike Tirico observed, "from 3-1 to 2-2." Great.

And teams (like the Lions) that stumble to a 1-3 start make the playoffs just 15% of the time.

Finally, outside the parameters of our Division's current records, teams that get blanked through the first quarter (like the Browns, Titans, Chiefs, Rams, and Bucs) make the playoffs just 2% of the time.

Two-percent? Wow! We may be unhappy about what happened on Monday Night, but imagine what it would feel like for your season to be effectively over before Columbus Day!