For the past two weeks, I have been slow about looking at the upcoming match-ups, for I have missed the Thursday games. But that’s not going to happen this week!
The Packers kickoff Week 12 in the NFL with their much-anticipated trip to Detroit. Not long ago, the Packers and Lions were the only undefeated teams in the league, and the expectation was that this might be a battle of unbeatens on Thanksgiving Day.
Well, we held up our end of the bargain.
In a sense, the dynamics of this particular match-up are more dangerous for us now than if both teams had come in at 10-0. For as it stands now, the Lions need it even more, and the Packers need it somewhat less. Also, I think the Lions are an angrier, more resentful, more emotionally motivated team than they would have been at 10-0.
Which brings us to a consideration of the larger landscape: the larger landscape of our own remaining schedule and of our closest competitors in the Conference.
Let us assume that the Packers will win the NFC North. It’s not a given, but the odds are heavily in our favor. Also, we’ll concede that the 49ers will win the NFC West -- and will be the only team from that loser division to make the postseason. The Giants and Cowboys are both vying for the NFC East title. The Saints and Falcons are going at it in the South. And the Lions and Bears are leading the wild card hunt. I don’t mean to discount the Eagles, Bucs, and others prematurely, but for the sake of simplicity, we’ll say that there are eight legitimate teams trying to earn six spots. Which of those teams would you like to see miss the cut? Which ones would you rather not face in the playoffs? I’ll stick a survey on the right side so we can take a poll.
Meanwhile, here is a chart that reflects the remaining schedules for all eight of those teams.
| TEAM | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | % |
| GB 10-0 | DET 7-3 | NY 6-4 | OAK 6-4 | KC 4-6 | CHI 7-3 | DET 7-3 | .616 |
| SF 9-1 | BAL 7-3 | STL 2-8 | ARI 3-7 | PIT 7-3 | SEA 4-6 | STL 2-8 | .416 |
| DET 7-3 | GB 10-1 | NO 7-3 | MIN 2-8 | OAK 6-4 | SD 4-6 | GB 10-1 | .650 |
| CHI 7-3 | OAK 6-4 | KC 4-6 | DEN 5-5 | SEA 4-6 | GB 10-1 | MIN 2-8 | .516 |
| NO 7-3 | NY 6-4 | DET 7-3 | TEN 5-5 | MIN 2-8 | ATL 6-4 | CAR 2-8 | .466 |
| ATL 6-4 | MIN 2-8 | HOU 7-3 | CAR 2-8 | JAX 3-7 | NO 7-3 | TB 4-6 | .416 |
| DAL 6-4 | MIA 3-7 | ARI 3-7 | NY 6-4 | TB 4-6 | PHI 4-6 | NY 6-4 | .433 |
| NY 6-4 | NO 7-3 | GB 10-0 | DAL 6-4 | WASH 3-7 | NYJ 5-5 | DAL 6-4 | .616 |
As you can see, the Packers have one of the toughest rows to hoe. Also, you’ll note that the Bears have an edge on the Lions in terms of strength of schedule, although now that Jay Cutler is down and out, the advantage is small comfort to Chicago fans. And, finally, the 49ers have an unforgivably easy schedule, which will keep the heat on Green Bay if we want to keep home field advantage.
We’ll return to our date with Detroit in a moment. Meanwhile, the other two Thanksgiving Day games are also real winners. The Dolphins play in Dallas and the Ravens host the 49ers. Great stuff!
A few weeks ago, no one would have cherished a Dolphins-in-Dallas game, but both teams have gotten hot, and now it should be a pretty interesting contest. The Cowboys are tied for first with the Giants, and so they’ve got that unique brand of urgency and intensity at work for them. The Dolphins, meanwhile, don’t have any realistic postseason hopes. Yet, still, they seem to be a remarkably motivated team. I’m not sure what they’re playing for, but they’ve been playing fairly well all season. And now they’re winning, which makes them a threat to the Cowboys’ ambitions.
The Thursday night match-up on NFL Network, meanwhile, will also be a real beauty. It’s the first meeting of the Harbaugh brothers, which has a certain fascination. But even without that factor, it’s an important game for each and a great test for both.
The Ravens are in a hotly-contest divisional battle, which the 49ers are not. But San Francisco has their eye cast on a higher goal, and they are in the same one-game-behind situation in the Conference that the Ravens are in their division. Neither team can afford to lose a step.
Furthermore, the question is just how good each team really is. On some days, the Ravens look like they could beat anybody. On other days, yuck. And the 49ers have rolled up an impressive record in 2011, to be sure, but they’re in a lousy division and I still wonder if they can really be that much better than they were in 2010.
Naturally, I am a Ravens fan on Thursday night, and I like their chances at home.
Come Sunday, the Bears’ trip to Oakland is an interesting prospect. The Raiders seem reborn, and they appear to be the best team in their year’s AFC West (which is a complete surprise to me). The Bears, meanwhile, are going to have to learn to win without Jay Cutler. And in the tight race for NFC wild card berths, they can’t afford to stumble. Tough moment for Chicago.
Meanwhile, speaking of the AFC West, the Broncos head to San Diego in the next weekly installment of the Tim Tebow jury deliberations. And the Chargers, on the other hand, have to move quickly in order to salvage a terribly disappointing season. A divisional loss at home at this stage of the game would be devastating.
Perhaps the best game of a very good week (apart from the Packers-Lion, that is) is the Giants against the Saints. New York is coming off a tough and surprising loss at home to the Eagles, but still they have a share of first in their division. The Saints are also atop their division, but with the Falcons close behind. And, of course, beyond their individual divisional races, this game has postseason implications for playoff seedings and home field advantages. I’m not sure for whom to root in this contest. I don’t expect either team to catch Green Bay; if I feared that, I’d root for the Saints since we already have the head-to-head over them. Perhaps that will be my default. Whatever the case, we face the Giants next, so perhaps what I’m really rooting for is a long, grueling, draining, physical, overtime game.
But the piece de resistance of Week 12 is the Packers’ trip to Detroit on Thanksgiving Day. The Lions not only beat but beat up the Packers there last year. Things seemed pretty ominous for Green Bay after that Sunday.
I have no doubt that the Lions are capable of beating the Packers, but I am not convinced about just how good a team they are, top to bottom. If football were baseball -- and I’m glad that it’s not -- I would have no doubt that Green Bay would take a 5 or 7 game series from these Lions. Just one game, though, in Detroit, on Thanks-giving, with the Packers coming to the end of a tough three-game stretch…? I’m a little worried.
On the other hand, I was fascinated to see how a whole bevvy of experts at NFL.com have ranked all the teams in the league. The Packers are the unanimous #1, which is fun to just sit and contemplate. Interestingly, though, no one ranks the Detroit Lions higher than #10! Also, two of the Lions’ three losses have come at home, so it’s not like they are invincible there.
The only thing, in my judgment, that could cost us this game is inadequate O-line play. If they can’t establish the run or protect Rodgers, then we’ll be in trouble. But if the front line can do a respectable job, I earnestly believe that our offensive weapons will produce big points, that our defense will make plays, and that our special teams will come up with what’s needed at key points along the way.
As I have expressed before, this Packers squad seems to be a team of consummate professionals. They just go about their business; and their primary business is winning. For all the apprehension I feel about Thursday’s game, therefore, I can tell that I expect the Packers to win, for I will be genuinely surprised if they lose.
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