Let us divide the NFC into four tiers, according to record.
The top tier features three teams: the undefeated Packers, the San Francisco 49ers, and the New Orleans Saints.
The second tier, in my judgment, includes those teams that have been the other frontrunners in the NFC playoff race: the Cowboys and Giants in the East, the Lions and Bears in the North, and the Falcons in the South.
Meanwhile, there are two bottom-feeders in the NFC: the St. Louis Rams and Minnesota Vikings, both limping along at 2-8.
But then there is that third tier group. These are the teams that looked to be the 2011 also-rans: teams that don’t stink, but are wallowing below .500. These are the Seahawks, Cardinals, Eagles, Panthers, Redskins, and Buccaneers.
Here is the fascinating thing about Week 13. The top tier teams all won (as they should, of course). But all five of those second tier teams lost! That’s amazing. Teams with so much on the line, so much to lose, and yet they all lost. Not only did that coincidence of wins and losses put more distance between the top teams and their heel-nippers, it also allowed the third-tier teams to close the gap a bit.
The Seahawks, Cardinals, and Panthers all won in Week 13, and suddenly they have moved from “also ran” to “in the running.” Consider the chart below, reflecting the number of wins for the NFC teams that haven’t yet clinched (Green Bay and San Francisco) but are in the hunt:
| 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| PHI | SEA | NYG | DALL | NO | |
| CAR | ARI | CHI | |||
| WASH | ATL | ||||
| TB | DET |
The four teams at 7-5, along with the Giants at 6-6, have put themselves in an inexcusably vulnerable position. And the Seahawks and Cardinals find themselves with a lot to play for this weekend -- a lot more than one would have expected back on Thanksgiving.
So whether the Packers can stay perfect is not the only storyline in the NFC during the fourth quarter of the season. The battle to lose the East is compelling, as are Detroit’s free-fall and Atlanta’s disappointment. And, amidst it all, there are those pesky Seahawks, who snuck into the second round of last year’s playoffs, and who may emerge to upset someone more worthy again this year.
Well beyond the scope of this chart, meanwhile, are our Packers. More about their nail-biting victory in the next post.
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