What the Polls Tell Us

The 2012 NFL season coincides with a political season, and I have often said that national politics is my second-favorite spectator sport.

Consider the similarities.  In both politics and football, there are two sides, and thus rooting.  There are ‘players’ of varying skills and abilities, specific contests along the way, and a ton of pundits who write and talk and analyze and debate.  And then, of course, there is the big win or loss at the end of the season.

Now in the case of politics, the “big game” comes in early November.  But between now and then, there is constant polling and ongoing analysis of who is “ahead” or “winning.” 

Of course, the polls are pretty unreliable predictors at this point.  The difference between Candidate A and Candidate B in early September may bear very little resemblance to the final results on Election Day.   Still, for those of us who follow this stuff, it’s fascinating to watch.

Likewise, for those of us who follow the NFL, the beginning-of-the-season predictions are also fascinating.  As with the political polls, the final results in February may look quite different from the experts’ analyses in September, but it’s all we’ve got until the games begin.

At ESPN, the Packers are the prevailing favorite.  A majority of their pickers expect Green Bay to win it all, and a pretty fair number also look for Aaron Rodgers to repeat as NFL MVP.  And of the 7 folks who don’t predict a Super Bowl win for the Packers, 4 of them still envision us winning the NFC.  Remarkably, none of the remaining 3 are picking our much-ballyhooed opponents from this Sunday. 

Interestingly, Peter King at SI.com doesn’t expect the Packers to win their own Division this year, yet he still sees us winning the Super Bowl in the end.  

Also at SI.com, Don Banks thinks the Packers are the cream of the NFL crop.  He predicts “another Super Bowl run in Titletown,” and puts us at the top of his “Power Rankings.”  (That, of course, is a spot we held every single week during the entire 2011 season, until the Giants beat us at Lambeau in the playoffs.)

Peter and Don are not in the majority over at Sports Illustrated, however.  Most of their experts do not expect the Packers to win it all this year.  And they do have a number of folks supporting the likelihood of the 49ers winning the NFC. 

Finally, over at NFL.com, a slight majority of the experts predict that the Packers will win the NFC, though not all of them see us prevailing in the Super Bowl. 

So, in the end, what do the polls tell us?  In the NFL, I’m afraid, they tell us even less than in politics.  For in the political realm, at least, the people being polled do represent the people who will determine the final outcome.  In the NFL, however, these experts have nothing to do with results.  And so we are left to watch and wonder our way through the regular season. 

And, as Packer fans know well, even the regular season is not the best predictor of who will win in the end.