I see that Peter King has made his predictions for the 2011 season and postseason. I always enjoy reading King. And, of course, when you’re cheering for a good team the beginning-of-the-year predictions are endlessly fascinating. But I have to take issue with some of his regular season reckonings, as well as much of what he pictures in the postseason.
First, he has clearly drunk too much of the Detroit Lion Kool-Aid. I concur that they are up-and-comers, and I also believe that the Bears and Vikings will both take a step back this season. But for Detroit to go from perennial bottom-feeders to a close second in the Division and a wild card berth…? I think that’s a bit much. Also, it is worth noting that in 2010 (when they went 6-10) the Lions were tied for 12th in terms of strength of schedule. In 2011, by contrast, they are tied for 3rd in terms of toughest schedule, yet King predicts that they will end the season at 10-6. Are they really that much better?
I’m also interested to see that King continues to view the Patriots as the class of their division, rather than the Jets. And he still thinks the Steelers and Ravens are neck-and-neck atop the AFC North.
I think he may be underselling the Buccaneers a bit at 8-8 and the 49ers at 5-11. And, within our own Division, I think that 8-8 and 6-10 for the Bears and Vikings, respectively, is insulting. Not that I would mind seeing them both flail around like that, but I simply don’t think either team is as mediocre as he is predicting.
If he is right about Chicago and Minnesota, though, that would represent an ear-poppingly fact descent for the past two Division winners.
My real beef with King’s predictions, though, comes in his rendering of the postseason.
First, he sees the Packers losing a home playoff game to the Falcons. Is he nuts?! The same team that we manhandled in Atlanta last year is going to beat us in Lambeau in January?
Second, he predicts that the Chargers will outlast the Jets, Ravens, Steelers, Colts, and Patriots to represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLVI. Those other teams include some proven winners, while the Chargers have been consistently disappointing in the playoffs for years. Furthermore, if the Chargers end up having to hit the road to play any of those teams, they’ll never make it to the Big Game. I just don’t think they can win in January in places like Foxboro, New York, or Pittsburgh.
Third, he calls for the Falcons to beat the Saints at home in the NFC Championship game, followed by a Falcon Super Bowl victory over the aforementioned Chargers. In other words, Peter King really believes in the 2011 Falcons.
I don’t doubt that the Falcons are good. I do doubt, however, that they are that good. Just as King thinks this is the year Atlanta take that next step, I think it is just as likely that this is the year the Falcons will fall short of expectations, appearing on every-one’s “Biggest Disappointments” lists a few months from now.
Finally, even though conventional wisdom says that the Packers face a tough test because everyone is gunning for the defending champs, the reality (surprisingly) is that there was more national hype about Green Bay going into last season than there is this season. The Falcons, Saints, and Eagles are all proving to be more fashionable picks for February 2012 than the Packers.
And I bet that Mike McCarthy likes that just fine.
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