Well, this week represents the nearest thing to football that we may get for some time. I’m in no position, of course, to evaluate the probable time line and eventual outcome of the NFL’s labor dispute. But, long or short, for this moment at least, we have football. Specifically, the 2011 draft.
The Packers are now widely recognized as a championship team that was primarily built through the draft. It’s an especially exciting time for Packer fans, therefore. And all the more because, in our team’s present condition, we enjoy the prospect of getting even better!
Peter King calls this a “luxury draft” for the Packers. He feels that we have no glaring needs, and so it’s more a matter of anticipating possible needs or shoring up strengths. He looks for Green Bay to focus on its D-line in his One-Minute Drill.
Sports Illustrated colleague Kerry Wood also concurs that Green Bay is the team that has almost everything, and he lays out the statistics to prove it. He sees us focusing on the O-line, however:
What do you get the team that has almost everything? How about a ferocious earth mover in the middle of the OL, in the mold of an Alan Faneca or Logan Mankins?
Center and guard are the least-drafted early-round positions in football: just 14 total in the first round over the past decade. But if ever a team should grab an interior lineman early, it's the Packers.
They appeared to have landed their franchise left tackle with last year's top pick, Bryan Bulaga. He started most of the season, made most all-rookie teams and became the youngest Super Bowl winner in history -- he was just 21 when the Packers hoisted the Lombardi Trophy in Dallas (he turned 22 in March).
But Bulaga could use a little help up front, especially there in the soft underbelly of the OL, the team's lone weak link.
The Packers were a statistically dominant juggernaut in 2010, even as they struggled to a 10-6 record and barely squeaked into the playoffs, before proving their potential in the postseason.
They fielded playmakers on both sides of the ball and their statistical dominance was evident by the fact they ranked No. 1 in the NFL in average performance across the board in all of our Quality Stats -- including No. 1 in Bendability (our measure of defensive efficiency), Defensive Passer Rating and Passer Rating Differential. They were in the top five in Passing Yards Per Attempt, Defensive Passing Yards Per Attempt, Quarterback Rating (our new indicator that measures all aspects of QB production), Defensive Quarterback Rating and Offensive Passer Rating.
This was one sick statistical team.
The only relative weakness was on the offensive line, where the Packers ranked a humble No. 16 league-wide in our Offensive Hog Index. The Pack ran the ball poorly (3.81 YPA) and struggled to protect Aaron Rodgers -- who was sacked at least once in every game since Week 8, including all four playoff games.
Put some beef up front, and this team will be well stocked for another Super Bowl run in 2011.
Likewise, ESPN’s Kevin Seifert is also thinking O-line for the Packers:
Dream scenario: We've noted that it would be surprising for a blue-chip offensive tackle to be available at No. 29. The likelihood drops accordingly at No. 32. But truth be told, drafting a high-caliber offensive tackle might be the Packers' best-case scenario. Bryan Bulaga, their top pick in 2010, is already entrenched at right tackle. But at some point they'll have to replace left tackle Chad Clifton as well. It's doubtful a high-caliber left tackle will drop to No. 32, but we can dream, right?
Plan B: There would be nothing wrong with drafting an outside linebacker here, especially if a prospect like UCLA's Akeem Ayers is available.
In terms of specifics, at pick #32, the projections for the Packers are all over the board. Pro Football Weekly sees us picking up Georgia OLB Justin Houston. (Another first-round “Justin” may be a little unnerving for Packer fans though.) Brian Baldinger figures we’ll grab UNC’s LB Bruce Carter. Peter King, Don Banks, and Charles Davis all predict Ohio State’s DT Cam Heyward for us. Pat Kirwin projects Alabama’s famous running back Mark Ingram falling to us. And both Steve Wyche and Bucky Brooks see us taking Arizona’s DL Brooks Reed.
Finally, as a point of modest interest, Michael Silver of Yahoo! Sports has done an entertaining thing… He imagines all 32 teams with their present needs, but able to draft existing NFL players. In that scenario, Silver sees our Aaron Rodgers going #1 overall! Nice vindication for a guy who fell famously on national TV during Round 1 a few years back.
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