Four games on the NFL playoff schedule this weekend, and each one is a rematch. In fact, in two cases, it’s a rubber match.
The Ravens and Steelers split their season series in the AFC North, with each team winning at the other one’s home by 3 points. These two teams have been famously evenly-matched in recent years, and so it promises to be a close, physical, and intense game. Pittsburgh presumably has home field advantage, but winning on the road doesn’t seem to be a problem for Baltimore, and they won’t have the rust issues that the Steelers might.
Meanwhile, the Jets and Patriots also split their season series, though not so evenly. The Jets also fancy themselves evenly matched with their Division rivals, too, though I think they may be kidding themselves. Perhaps I’m wrong, but I believe New England is several notches better than New York. True, the Jets have the superior defense, but I’m thinking that the Patriots have the better quarterback and the better coach, which should make a significant difference in a playoff setting.
Over in the NFC, the rematches are not Divisional ones (that should come the following week in the NFC Championship game!).
The Seahawks came into Chicago and beat the Bears in Week 6, which has to be regarded as something of a fluke within the context of both teams’ seasons. The following week, the Bears lost to the equally poor Redskins. Then came their bye, and they have reputedly been a different team since, going 7-2, with their only two losses being to very respectable opponents (the Patriots and Packers).
I don’t know that many people seriously expect the Seahawks go get past the Bears in order to host the NFC Championship Game. On the other hand, I don’t know that many people seriously expected the Seahawks to (soundly) beat the defending champion Saints!
Then there is the Packers’ return to Atlanta, where they lost by 3 in Week 12.
Here’s the thing about the Week 12 game… Matt Ryan completed 24 of 28 passes, using 9 different receivers, with 1 TD and no picks. Turner carried the ball 23 times for 110 yards (4.8 yards per carry) and a TD. They didn’t turn the ball over at all, but they recovered a critical Packer fumble in their end zone. And they held Green Bay to fewer than 80 yards on the ground (including 51 by Aaron Rodgers himself!).
All of which is to say, the Falcons played a nearly perfect game. Their only real flaw was giving up a lot of yards through the air (Rodgers went 26 of 35 for 344 yards and a TD). So they played a near-perfect game at home, and they still just eked out a 3-point win. That tells me that there is a lot of pressure on the Falcons to play another near-perfect game, otherwise they’ll lose.
As for the Packers… Well, if they get Starks (or whoever the hero du jour may be) to put together another hundred-yard effort on the ground, and if they don’t turn the ball over, I think they’ll win.
Mike & Mike reported this morning that, in 4 of the past 5 times that the #6 seed has played the #1 seed, the #6 seed has won. Remarkable.
Peter King thinks that's going to happen again on Saturday evening. Interestingly, his SI.com colleague, Tim Layden, predicts the same final score, but the opposite outcome. And ESPN.com’s crazy AccuScore reports that, in a thousand simulations of the match-up, Green Bay wins 52% of the time.
Of course, we don’t really need to do quite that well. Rather than winning 52% of a thousand games against the Falcons, we just need to win 50% of two.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment