I didn’t expect us to come to Week 15 with such slim playoff hopes. It is what it is, though, and so let’s unpack the situation the Packers find themselves in with three weeks left in the regular season.
In the NFC playoff race, there is no team behind us that can overtake us for a playoff spot. We do have teams behind us that may make the playoffs, mind you, but only because they are members of the pathetic NFC West and are competing for that Division title. We may very well sit at home this postseason with a better record than the champion of that Division.
In any case, we don’t have to look over our shoulder at any team that is behind us -- we only need to watch the teams that are ahead of us. At this moment, the Conference seedings look like this:
| Atlanta Falcons | 11 | 2 | in |
| Chicago Bears | 9 | 4 | in |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 9 | 4 | in |
| St. Louis Rams | 6 | 7 | in |
| New Orleans Saints | 10 | 3 | in |
| New York Giants | 9 | 4 | in |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8 | 5 | out |
| Green Bay Packers | 8 | 5 | out |
So, given the present state of affairs, what are we hoping for?
There are 6 playoff spots -- 4 division titles and 2 wild card berths -- and we are theoretically eligible for 3 of the 6 (i.e., the NFC North title or the 2 wild card positions). In reality, however, one of the wild card spots is going to go to whichever powerhouse from the NFC South does not win that division -- either the Falcons or the Saints. We have no realistic chance of catching either of them, which leaves us with just 2 options: win our Division or grab the remaining wild card spot. And with a loss to the Patriots this Sunday and a Chicago victory in Minnesota, the Division would no longer be an option, which would leave us clinging to one wild card possibility. (Pretty sad for a team that entered the season as a nearly unanimous Super Bowl pick!)
To win the Division, of course, means getting past the Bears. To claim the final wild card spot means ending ahead of the Buccaneers and either the Giants or the Eagles. Happily, we have already beaten the Eagles and we have opportunity to beat the Giants on our own turf. Also, we still get to play the Bears in Lambeau. So, in many respects, we still hold much of our fate in our own hands.
And if only we had somehow scored a measly 8 points in Detroit on Sunday, we’d actually be in very good shape.
The Bears play at Minnesota, home against the Jets, and at Green Bay. I can imagine them losing to the Jets and the Pack. It’s hard to imagine the quarterback-less and hopeless Vikings getting the job done now, but we need them to do it in order to weaken the Bears’ record in the Division.
The Giants host the Eagles this weekend, followed by trips to Green Bay and Washington. It’s hard to picture them losing to the luckless Redskins, but I can certainly see them going 0-2 before then.
The Eagles, meanwhile, visit the Giants, followed by home games against the Vikings and Cowboys. That could be a sweep for Philly. The only problem for them is that I think Vick’s speed advantage is somewhat diminished in outdoor winter games, which all three of these promise to be.
Finally, the Buccaneers, which on paper are the easiest team to catch, have the easiest schedule. They host the Lions and Seahawks, followed by a trip to New Orleans on January 2nd, at which point the Saints may already have their position settled.
The Packers, meanwhile, have the toughest road of all: visiting the white hot Patriots, followed by games at home against the Giants and Bears. Three playoff teams in a row, all in bad weather, all without a running game, and some of them perhaps without our starting quarterback.
Boy, I wish McCarthy had made a better decision on 4th-and-1.
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