I was surprised again and again this Sunday.
I was surprised by the Vikings. I didn’t think they’d be as good as last year, for in 2009 they were too nearly perfect (and lucky) to be able to match in 2010. I felt pretty sure, however, that they would hold serve against the Dolphins at home. But Minnesota’s offense failed to punch it in and turned it over on downs inside the 5, and their notorious quarterback threw 3 interceptions and no touchdowns on the day.
So Minnesota is 0-2 and at the bottom of the NFC North. How many teams make the playoffs after an 0-2 start?
Well, I’ll tell you (courtesy of Mike & Mike). In the past 20 years, 169 teams have started a season 0-2. Only 22 of them (13%) have made the playoffs after such a weak beginning. And of those 22, only 4 (about 2% of the 169 total) have made it all the way to the Super Bowl.
(Incidentally, once a team that started so poorly actually makes it all the way to the Super Bowl, they have apparently developed such a triumphalism that their chances of winning are quite good. Three of the 4 aforementioned teams did go on to win the Lombardi Trophy.)
Speaking of such unpromising beginnings, I am also surprised by the Cowboys. Many observers thought that might finally be the year when a team gets to play the Super Bowl on their home field. But Dallas is off to a miserable start, including a loss at home to a Bears team that struggled to beat the 0-2 Lions.
I’m surprised, too, by the Steelers. They played their 4th-string quarterback yesterday (do we even have a 4th-string quarterback?), and still managed to get a win in Tennessee!
Meanwhile, I am also surprised by a phenomenon that keeps surprising me season after season. Namely, the week-to-week unpredictability of the games – i.e., the way that one game does not really translate to the next. The first two weeks of 2010 provide an excellent case in point:
In Week One, the Ravens absolutely smothered the Jets, while the Patriots overwhelmed the Bengals.
In Week Two, they all swapped partners. And what happened? The Jets throttled the Patriots, while the Bengals beat the Ravens.
Who can predict this game?
And, I must begrudgingly confess that I am also surprised by the Bears. I didn’t think they would be as dysfunctional as they were last season, but neither did I expect the Mike Martz – Jay Cutler marriage to be so successful so quickly.
Of course, you can’t extrapolate through January based on two weeks in September. But at this early date, with Pilate, I am really quite surprised.
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