Postseason Projections

The road to the Super Bowl begins in September, and 32 teams embark on that road with the same destination in mind.

Now it's January, and 20 of those 32 teams are no longer on that road. We are among the 12 that remain, and so it's time to consider our chances.

If we go far down this road, it will be because:

1) We protect Aaron Rodgers, which will enable our great passing game and set up our running game.

2) We establish that running game, allowing us to be balanced in our offensive attack, as well as enabling us to eat some clock and keep the other team's offense off the field.

3) We play downhill on defense -- aggressive, flying around, ball-hawking.

If we don't go far, it will be because:

1) The offensive line doesn't protect Rodgers.

2) The special teams unit gives up big returns.

3) Mason Crosby can't be counted on to convert truncated drives into field goals.

Meanwhile, more able prognosticators than I are beginning to weigh in.


Don Banks (SI.com) has ranked the Packers as 3rd among the playoff teams, behind only the Chargers and Cowboys. I find that quite remarkable. He puts us ahead of teams like the Colts, Patriots, and Saints. He puts us ahead of the Cardinals, who won the NFC last year. And he puts us well ahead of the Vikings, who beat us twice this year.


Here it the link where you can read his rationale. It sounds good to me!
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/don_banks/01/06/playoff.power.rankings/index.html?eref=sihp


Conversely, Banks' colleague, Peter King, ranks Green Bay as much more of a middle-of-the-pack team. He likewise ranks the Chargers and Cowboys atop the field (apparently he buys Dallas' recent run more than Green Bay's), and he adds the Colts into that top tier. King also esteems the Vikings, Saints, and Patriots as better than the Packers. He categorizes us with the Cardinals under the heading, "I'm on the Bandwagon, But..."


Here is King's reasoning:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/peter_king/01/03/mmqb/index.html


For myself, I have little doubt that, playing our best, we have the potential to beat anyone.


We know that our offense can score on anyone (we tallied the third-highest point total in the league this year). The concern is protecting Aaron. I know that problem seems to have been solved through personnel adjustments, which is great, but it's a worry.


Also, we know that our defense can be a game-changer. They led the league in run-stopping, and they set this season on fire with interceptions. My only concerns there are those short, over-the-middle passes that a couple of teams have used to victimize us. Our threshold seems to be 30 points. We let opponents score 30 or more points on us 5 times this season, and those are the 5 games we lost.


And then, finally, there are the special teams. That's my biggest fear: either the big kick return or the missed field goal. Perhaps these are old problems -- like pass protection -- and McCarthy has them solved. But these weaknesses have hurt us earlier in the season, and so I'm afraid of them in the postseason.


This post from RevengeOfTheBirds.com offers some insight into how the Cardinals propose to beat us. And it's not so much about capitalizing on our weaknesses as it is about thwarting our strengths. Interesting stuff. http://www.revengeofthebirds.com/2010/1/5/1234947/cardinals-defensive-gameplan-for


Well, the bottom line is that we have four games left to win. And I do believe that we'll start with a win in Arizona this Sunday afternoon.