Week One -- A Look Ahead

Well, after so long a wait, the time is finally here!

The 2009 NFL regular season kicks off this Thursday evening with the defending champion Steelers hosting the Tennessee Titans. Then comes a full complement of games on Sunday afternoon and evening, followed by two Monday Night match-ups.

For our purposes, there are three games of particular interest.


Detroit at New Orleans

After setting a new standard for failure last season, it's really hard to root against the Lions this season. Still, they're an NFC North foe, and so they have to be on our 'public enemy' list.

Meanwhile, Don Banks picks the Saints to win the NFC South. At the end of the season, therefore, when I assume the Lions will be long-gone from the playoff race and the Packers and Saints may be vying for home field advantages, we may wish that the Lions had won this game.

And so I am divided about this one. It's too early in the season to cheer for a division rival, but if the Lions do win, I won't be too sad about it.


Minnesota at Cleveland

Here are two teams with surrounded by completely different expectations.

Almost all of the offseason and preseason press about the Browns has been bad. They remain an embarrassingly dysfunctional franchise, and the lasting impact of Eric Mangini's distinctive style remains to be seen. For the moment, he is being widely ridiculed for his handling of the starting QB competition between Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn.

Brad Childress, meanwhile, has also come under much criticism for his handling of his QB situation: his willingness to take Favre on Favre's own terms ("I'm interested." "I'm retiring." "I'm available." Plus, the unspoken but unmistakable message: "I don't do training camp anymore."); his willingness to demote so quickly his other two QBs; and the potential damage he has done within the locker room by his handling of the whole affair. I won't shed any tears if Childress has done damage to the Vikings. I do know these two things, however: (1) On the one hand, winning heals a lot of wounds, and so the Favre gameble could pay off big. (2) The Jets are arguably worse off in 2009 for having had Favre in 2008, and the same thing might happen to Minnesota.

Still, the expectation of the 2009 Browns is that they will be bottom dwellers again (Banks predicts they'll finish 4-12 and last place in the AFC North), while the Vikings are widely expected to be a playoff team, perhaps even a Super Bowl contender.

Naturally, I'm rooting for the Browns. I can only hope that the optimism and enthusiasm that come with Week One will make the Cleveland stadium the kind of difficult environment that the old Dawg Pound used to be for visiting teams. Also, Mangini may have some strategic advantage is coaching against his QB from last year (though both are with different teams now).

I'm sure Minnesota is the much better team, and so if I had to put money on it, I'd go with the Vikings. But, "on any given Sunday....!"


Bears at Packers

Is it possible for the first game of a season to be a must-win game?

All games are equal in the W-L column, but not all games are equal when it comes to the end-of-the-year tie-breaking system. If we lose on the road against Pittsburgh, for example, that is not nearly so costly as losing at home against the Bears.

You've got to win your Conference games. You've especially got to win your division games. And you especially-squared have got to win your division games at home.

The NFC North promises to be a very competitive division this year, and the Bears are one of the three serious contenders. We cannot afford to lose to them at Lambeau.

There's been a lot of hype about Jay Cutler and the Bears finally having a franchise quarterback -- their first since Sid Luckman, some say. I'm not sure that Cutler's name will ever end up next to Luckman, but he has brought a new capacity to the Bears offense. Add in the Devin Hester factor and a perenially stout defense, and the Bears figure to be a formidable opponent.

On the other hand, the Packer offense has shown signs of being a scoring machine, and the 2009 version of Green Bay's defense looks smothering. Honestly, both my head and my heart say that Packers will win this game. More specifically, though, I would say this: If everything clicks for Green Bay the way it did in the preseason, I think we'll win comfortably. If it's a close game, however, I fear that our special teams may prove to be a weak link. So I envision either a comfortable win or a close loss. I'll put my money on the former.